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Crowfall Lowers Base Game Price As Well As Details VIP Membership Service Ahead Of July Launch | MMO

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  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    edited June 2021
    Iselin said:
    Scorchien said:

    "These Campaigns are fully populated – our goal is 2000 concurrent players (which supports a total player population of about 10,000) – and should span at least a handful of islands, each sized up to 5,120m by 5,120m."


    So that was their goal. What's the current reality in terms of player numbers the game can handle without becoming a slide show? I keep hearing 200. Is that right?
    I dont think we know.  They brought some Unity folks in a few months ago and tweaked things.   I don’t know if they have had any real stress testing since that.  There are 142 people on the US server now.  Friday at 9PM.  That’s the whole server.  There are 8 people in the US Dregs server now.



    This is the map.  So the 142 are spread out over 7 zones.



    This is the map of one of those Adventure Zones:
    Nilden[Deleted User]

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

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  • BruceYeeBruceYee Member EpicPosts: 2,556
    AWW did someone take the Mars OMG bait again? never take that mars omg bait bois..
    Tiller
  • BruceYeeBruceYee Member EpicPosts: 2,556
    Iselin said:
    Scorchien said:

    "These Campaigns are fully populated – our goal is 2000 concurrent players (which supports a total player population of about 10,000) – and should span at least a handful of islands, each sized up to 5,120m by 5,120m."


    So that was their goal. What's the current reality in terms of player numbers the game can handle without becoming a slide show? I keep hearing 200. Is that right?

    Stuff starts chopping up with a dozen in close proximity so whatever the cap is doesn't matter. I said Unity would be a problem years ago and it will continue to be problem whenever there is a sizable amount of players together. No amount of whatever they do even praying to Zeus will be able to fix that. Players will just have to deal with it like I plan to.


    "These Campaigns are fully populated – our goal is 2000 concurrent players (which supports a total player population of about 10,000) – and should span at least a handful of islands, each sized up to 5,120m by 5,120m."

    That quote @Scorchien posted is why I called them scammers years ago. It's friggin' Unity ffs... would've preferred a little more honesty but honesty doesn't sell as well.

    Kyleran
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,530
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    BruceYee[Deleted User]
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • BruceYeeBruceYee Member EpicPosts: 2,556
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 

    And there are people over on the CF forums saying they plan to sub for multiple accounts.

    If CF adds some type of 'farming parcels' or 'hunting grounds parcels' Albion may lose some players...
    KyleranUngood
  • HerithiusHerithius Member UncommonPosts: 219
    edited June 2021
    I think people are being overly critical of Crowfall. It's achieved something momentous in being a Kickstarter that's launched. They delivered. They did it.

    As mentioned previously on MMORPG.com this is something that's extremely rare. So rare in fact that many fans are not used to the idea of Kickstarter mmorpgs and still compare them to the standard AAA titles they are used to.

    How much does a modern AAA mmorpg cost? 150m? More? Crowfall is working with 1/10 of the budget yet fans are coming in with unrealistic expectations on levels of content & polish.

    While this game was delayed (which all mmorpgs do), the developers were open, communicative, had playable builds early and dropped the NDA.  I think the developers here did a fine job. Is it for everyone? Nope. It's for that target niche audience who want guild vs guild and even then it may not attract them. However in an arguably dying industry these guys took a chance at developing a mmorpg for us to enjoy.

    It's easy to mock a game that's launching and finally showcasing all it's pluses and faults. It would be safer to hide behind a wall of constant development like nearly every other Kickstarter mmorpg out there.

    While Crowfall isn't for me they absolutely have my respect. I hope them the best. If they have success it will just help justify other studios to pursue the development of mmorpgs.
    [Deleted User]BruceYeelaxieUngoodKidRiskTwistedSister77TacticalZombehYashaXValdheim
  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    edited June 2021
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    I had a feeling so I just had to look. I'm not trying to start a fight but that info is just wrong. 
    As @kyleran was kind enough to compile for us, these are the numbers they had on their Pledge page:
    449,502 Total Crows.
    $38,323,372 Total Funding.
    76,983 Total Backers.
    $27,103,740 Total Equity
    $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    They haven't SOLD 480k accounts.  Those are accounts CREATED.  Not purchases.  They have (lets be kind and call it) 80k backers.

    So plugging THAT into your math shows: 
    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 8k players, investing 15 a month, that would be 120K a month, or put another way 360 thousand a quarter.

    To extrapolate further:
    That is 1.4 million a year.
    Their equity investors put in $27 MILLION
    Lets assume they have some ridiculous 50% margins
    That means they have 700k a year (It also means their whole staff, rent, servers, bandwidth, etc only cost 700k a month but whatever)
    700k a year would mean that the investors will break even in the year 2059

    So lets just agree that math sucks.  I do not think the investors are interested in a ROI of 40 years.


    If you have anything to support a sudden surge in purchases from 80k to 480k PAID accounts please do share it with us...

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    THIS is why I continually speak to the fact that the dead servers and unused keys are a HUGELY bad sign for the game.  They do not have enough players that bought the game and are just sitting around waiting for launch.   They NEED to get hundreds of thousands of NEW players.  The guild of 200 who all bought the game are not going to move the needle at launch whether they come back or not because they already bought the game AND some (likely a lot) of sub time.   The NEW people (who the empty severs and unused keys show are NOT giving a look at the game) would be contributing $40 box fees PLUS some will sub sub.  A new player is worth an order of magnitude more than the ones that already paid, and THOSE are the people that would be looking at the game now, seeing what changed and making their decision on buying it.

    This isn't a game I want to see fail.  It's by far the game that I spent the most money on ($215 which was some of the profit from selling my Pathfinder Online accounts).  I sold back like 2 years of VIP (had 5.5) that came with it and bought all the pixel toys like Castles, Keeps, Forts, Guildhalls, etc...   I have zero incentive to be negative as even if I don't play, I could always sell those items at a huge discount to the store and make bank on it.  But it's just reality that this game needs a miracle.  Maybe that will happen.  We will see.

    If a month after launch we have 50 campaigns going.  That would be fantastic and likely make me a lot of cash.


    PS: For reference, Lost Ark which is another translation of an asian MMORPG just had all their 14000 keys claimed on here in 3 hours and that's for a 4 day test.
    [Deleted User]KyleranGdemamiMendel

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

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  • NildenNilden Member EpicPosts: 3,916
    Half a million accounts created and 150-200 people in the open beta with less than a month to go until launch. That's abysmal.

    Anyone hand waving away these beta numbers is probably going to be surprised when this ends up being a ghost town a month after launch. Everyone else saw the writing on the wall.

    I don't think I have ever seen an open beta with so little interest.

    38 million dollars and they struggle to get over 200 players in the open beta at prime time on a Friday less than a month before launch. This is going to bomb hard.
    Mendel

    "You CAN'T buy ships for RL money." - MaxBacon

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    Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/ 

  • NildenNilden Member EpicPosts: 3,916
    Mars_OMG said:
    Nilden said:
    Half a million accounts created and 150-200 people in the open beta with less than a month to go until launch. That's abysmal.

    Anyone hand waving away these beta numbers is probably going to be surprised when this ends up being a ghost town a month after launch. Everyone else saw the writing on the wall.

    I don't think I have ever seen an open beta with so little interest.

    38 million dollars and they struggle to get over 200 players in the open beta at prime time on a Friday less than a month before launch. This is going to bomb hard.
    you could be right, but I guess we will have to wait and see what the land rush looks like.... I personally am done with the beta and will be going in fresh in July :)
    Looks like everyone is done with the beta, heh.
    [Deleted User]

    "You CAN'T buy ships for RL money." - MaxBacon

    "classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon

    Love Minecraft. And check out my Youtube channel OhCanadaGamer

    Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/ 

  • BruceYeeBruceYee Member EpicPosts: 2,556
    Nilden said:
    Half a million accounts created and 150-200 people in the open beta with less than a month to go until launch. That's abysmal.

    Anyone hand waving away these beta numbers is probably going to be surprised when this ends up being a ghost town a month after launch. Everyone else saw the writing on the wall.

    I don't think I have ever seen an open beta with so little interest.

    38 million dollars and they struggle to get over 200 players in the open beta at prime time on a Friday less than a month before launch. This is going to bomb hard.

    The game is meant to be played long-term like EVE so there's no point in playing right now except to test things out. My guess is that people who will play after launch already have planned everything they're going to do.

    Trust me when I say that if I thought the game was in bad shape there's no way I'd be buying that Adventurer pack for a 2nd account + 12/mo sub but I expect that with everything the game has currently may start off slow but will pick up over time similar to Albion.
    [Deleted User]Kyleran
  • NildenNilden Member EpicPosts: 3,916
    BruceYee said:
    Nilden said:
    Half a million accounts created and 150-200 people in the open beta with less than a month to go until launch. That's abysmal.

    Anyone hand waving away these beta numbers is probably going to be surprised when this ends up being a ghost town a month after launch. Everyone else saw the writing on the wall.

    I don't think I have ever seen an open beta with so little interest.

    38 million dollars and they struggle to get over 200 players in the open beta at prime time on a Friday less than a month before launch. This is going to bomb hard.

    The game is meant to be played long-term like EVE so there's no point in playing right now except to test things out. My guess is that people who will play after launch already have planned everything they're going to do.

    Trust me when I say that if I thought the game was in bad shape there's no way I'd be buying that Adventurer pack for a 2nd account + 12/mo sub but I expect that with everything the game has currently may start off slow but will pick up over time similar to Albion.
    Well for anyone looking to enjoy this game I hope so because those are some really low beta numbers.

    Then again the Shadowbane EMU has about 600 players and it's fun to play on that so, good luck with Crowfall.

    At the very least it made it to a launch which is a lot more than can be said for most crowdfunded MMOs.
    [Deleted User]UngoodYashaX

    "You CAN'T buy ships for RL money." - MaxBacon

    "classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon

    Love Minecraft. And check out my Youtube channel OhCanadaGamer

    Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/ 

  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,530
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    I had a feeling so I just had to look. I'm not trying to start a fight but that info is just wrong. 
    As @kyleran was kind enough to compile for us, these are the numbers they had on their Pledge page:
    449,502 Total Crows.
    $38,323,372 Total Funding.
    76,983 Total Backers.
    $27,103,740 Total Equity
    $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    They haven't SOLD 480k accounts.  Those are accounts CREATED.  Not purchases.  They have (lets be kind and call it) 80k backers.

    So plugging THAT into your math shows: 
    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 8k players, investing 15 a month, that would be 120K a month, or put another way 360 thousand a quarter.

    To extrapolate further:
    That is 1.4 million a year.
    Their equity investors put in $27 MILLION
    Lets assume they have some ridiculous 50% margins
    That means they have 700k a year (It also means their whole staff, rent, servers, bandwidth, etc only cost 700k a month but whatever)
    700k a year would mean that the investors will break even in the year 2059

    So lets just agree that math sucks.  I do not think the investors are interested in a ROI of 40 years.


    If you have anything to support a sudden surge in purchases from 80k to 480k PAID accounts please do share it with us...

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    THIS is why I continually speak to the fact that the dead servers and unused keys are a HUGELY bad sign for the game.  They do not have enough players that bought the game and are just sitting around waiting for launch.   They NEED to get hundreds of thousands of NEW players.  The guild of 200 who all bought the game are not going to move the needle at launch whether they come back or not because they already bought the game AND some (likely a lot) of sub time.   The NEW people (who the empty severs and unused keys show are NOT giving a look at the game) would be contributing $40 box fees PLUS some will sub sub.  A new player is worth an order of magnitude more than the ones that already paid, and THOSE are the people that would be looking at the game now, seeing what changed and making their decision on buying it.

    This isn't a game I want to see fail.  It's by far the game that I spent the most money on ($215 which was some of the profit from selling my Pathfinder Online accounts).  I sold back like 2 years of VIP (had 5.5) that came with it and bought all the pixel toys like Castles, Keeps, Forts, Guildhalls, etc...   I have zero incentive to be negative as even if I don't play, I could always sell those items at a huge discount to the store and make bank on it.  But it's just reality that this game needs a miracle.  Maybe that will happen.  We will see.

    If a month after launch we have 50 campaigns going.  That would be fantastic and likely make me a lot of cash.


    PS: For reference, Lost Ark which is another translation of an asian MMORPG just had all their 14000 keys claimed on here in 3 hours and that's for a 4 day test.
    While I am unsure of how often they have tossed out free accounts to players, I know when I went to join the game, I had to buy a pledge to join, and give all the fuss, muss and carrying on about how few people jumped on the free beta trial before the wipe, I highly doubt 380 of their created accounts were free.

    Lets see, 80 K backers since Kickstarter.

    3 Years of Selling Accounts to a playable game.

    Seems reasonable they could have sold the 464K accounts they have active. 
    GdemamiYashaX
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    Ungood said:
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    I had a feeling so I just had to look. I'm not trying to start a fight but that info is just wrong. 
    As @kyleran was kind enough to compile for us, these are the numbers they had on their Pledge page:
    449,502 Total Crows.
    $38,323,372 Total Funding.
    76,983 Total Backers.
    $27,103,740 Total Equity
    $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    They haven't SOLD 480k accounts.  Those are accounts CREATED.  Not purchases.  They have (lets be kind and call it) 80k backers.

    So plugging THAT into your math shows: 
    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 8k players, investing 15 a month, that would be 120K a month, or put another way 360 thousand a quarter.

    To extrapolate further:
    That is 1.4 million a year.
    Their equity investors put in $27 MILLION
    Lets assume they have some ridiculous 50% margins
    That means they have 700k a year (It also means their whole staff, rent, servers, bandwidth, etc only cost 700k a month but whatever)
    700k a year would mean that the investors will break even in the year 2059

    So lets just agree that math sucks.  I do not think the investors are interested in a ROI of 40 years.


    If you have anything to support a sudden surge in purchases from 80k to 480k PAID accounts please do share it with us...

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    THIS is why I continually speak to the fact that the dead servers and unused keys are a HUGELY bad sign for the game.  They do not have enough players that bought the game and are just sitting around waiting for launch.   They NEED to get hundreds of thousands of NEW players.  The guild of 200 who all bought the game are not going to move the needle at launch whether they come back or not because they already bought the game AND some (likely a lot) of sub time.   The NEW people (who the empty severs and unused keys show are NOT giving a look at the game) would be contributing $40 box fees PLUS some will sub sub.  A new player is worth an order of magnitude more than the ones that already paid, and THOSE are the people that would be looking at the game now, seeing what changed and making their decision on buying it.

    This isn't a game I want to see fail.  It's by far the game that I spent the most money on ($215 which was some of the profit from selling my Pathfinder Online accounts).  I sold back like 2 years of VIP (had 5.5) that came with it and bought all the pixel toys like Castles, Keeps, Forts, Guildhalls, etc...   I have zero incentive to be negative as even if I don't play, I could always sell those items at a huge discount to the store and make bank on it.  But it's just reality that this game needs a miracle.  Maybe that will happen.  We will see.

    If a month after launch we have 50 campaigns going.  That would be fantastic and likely make me a lot of cash.


    PS: For reference, Lost Ark which is another translation of an asian MMORPG just had all their 14000 keys claimed on here in 3 hours and that's for a 4 day test.
    While I am unsure of how often they have tossed out free accounts to players, I know when I went to join the game, I had to buy a pledge to join, and give all the fuss, muss and carrying on about how few people jumped on the free beta trial before the wipe, I highly doubt 380 of their created accounts were free.

    Lets see, 80 K backers since Kickstarter.

    3 Years of Selling Accounts to a playable game.

    Seems reasonable they could have sold the 464K accounts they have active. 
    Sigh... always so stubborn.  You are going to go with the concept that they sold 65000 accounts from Kickstarter to last Jan and then 400,000 accounts from last Jan to now?

    Come on man.  That makes zero sense.  

    Every single person that applied to beta test the game got a free account.  Then they gave away keys to all the players to distribute, then they had key giveaways.

    I am sorry you doubt it, but it's simply factual.  Do you really think they raised $20,000,000 last year from selling the game?  That's what would have had to happen (minimum at $50) to meet your hypothesis.

    We have the numbers right from Todd.  As of Jan last year they had about 65,000 paid accounts. @Kyleran's numbers showed 76K as of recently and I bumped it up to 80k for the simple math.

    If you think they went from 63k to 480k paid account in the last year... well.. I simply do not know what to tell you.
    GdemamiYashaX

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • mgilbrtsnmgilbrtsn Member EpicPosts: 3,430
    I've played it for a bit, just to see, and I had a good time.  I know it's not popular to say you enjoy a game now at days, but I did.  Wasn't earth shattering or anything, but I'll play it and however long that is, I think i'll get my money's worth.  Looking forward to it.
    KyleranBabuinix[Deleted User]laxie[Deleted User]TacticalZombehSovrathYashaX

    I self identify as a monkey.

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 43,500
    mgilbrtsn said:
    I've played it for a bit, just to see, and I had a good time.  I know it's not popular to say you enjoy a game now at days, but I did.  Wasn't earth shattering or anything, but I'll play it and however long that is, I think i'll get my money's worth.  Looking forward to it.


     :D

    As long as you are enjoying yourself doesn't matter what others say about it, just go out and have fun.


    [Deleted User][Deleted User]UngoodTacticalZombehSovrath

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    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm

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  • laxielaxie Member RarePosts: 1,118
    Sigh... always so stubborn.  You are going to go with the concept that they sold 65000 accounts from Kickstarter to last Jan and then 400,000 accounts from last Jan to now?

    I am sorry you doubt it, but it's simply factual.  Do you really think they raised $20,000,000 last year from selling the game?  That's what would have had to happen (minimum at $50) to meet your hypothesis.
    I agree. From the numbers I have seen elsewhere, it's an investment-backed project. They are making very little from pledges/mtx, while the development costs are many times higher than what comes in. It's being developed off third party (non-player) investments. Making any sort of argument that current pledges / mtx are contributing to the development in a meaningful way is simply not true at all.

    To their credit, they seem to have been quite successful in continuously raising private investment.

    They have historically hinted at four potential sources of revenue: launch sales + ongoing monetisation of a sustainable player base; licensing the game internationally; licensing their "engine"; working on a new game.

    None of those four is really active until Crowfall comes out.
    Kyleran[Deleted User]Slapshot1188YashaX
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,530
    edited June 2021
    Ungood said:
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    I had a feeling so I just had to look. I'm not trying to start a fight but that info is just wrong. 
    As @kyleran was kind enough to compile for us, these are the numbers they had on their Pledge page:
    449,502 Total Crows.
    $38,323,372 Total Funding.
    76,983 Total Backers.
    $27,103,740 Total Equity
    $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    They haven't SOLD 480k accounts.  Those are accounts CREATED.  Not purchases.  They have (lets be kind and call it) 80k backers.

    So plugging THAT into your math shows: 
    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 8k players, investing 15 a month, that would be 120K a month, or put another way 360 thousand a quarter.

    To extrapolate further:
    That is 1.4 million a year.
    Their equity investors put in $27 MILLION
    Lets assume they have some ridiculous 50% margins
    That means they have 700k a year (It also means their whole staff, rent, servers, bandwidth, etc only cost 700k a month but whatever)
    700k a year would mean that the investors will break even in the year 2059

    So lets just agree that math sucks.  I do not think the investors are interested in a ROI of 40 years.


    If you have anything to support a sudden surge in purchases from 80k to 480k PAID accounts please do share it with us...

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    THIS is why I continually speak to the fact that the dead servers and unused keys are a HUGELY bad sign for the game.  They do not have enough players that bought the game and are just sitting around waiting for launch.   They NEED to get hundreds of thousands of NEW players.  The guild of 200 who all bought the game are not going to move the needle at launch whether they come back or not because they already bought the game AND some (likely a lot) of sub time.   The NEW people (who the empty severs and unused keys show are NOT giving a look at the game) would be contributing $40 box fees PLUS some will sub sub.  A new player is worth an order of magnitude more than the ones that already paid, and THOSE are the people that would be looking at the game now, seeing what changed and making their decision on buying it.

    This isn't a game I want to see fail.  It's by far the game that I spent the most money on ($215 which was some of the profit from selling my Pathfinder Online accounts).  I sold back like 2 years of VIP (had 5.5) that came with it and bought all the pixel toys like Castles, Keeps, Forts, Guildhalls, etc...   I have zero incentive to be negative as even if I don't play, I could always sell those items at a huge discount to the store and make bank on it.  But it's just reality that this game needs a miracle.  Maybe that will happen.  We will see.

    If a month after launch we have 50 campaigns going.  That would be fantastic and likely make me a lot of cash.


    PS: For reference, Lost Ark which is another translation of an asian MMORPG just had all their 14000 keys claimed on here in 3 hours and that's for a 4 day test.
    While I am unsure of how often they have tossed out free accounts to players, I know when I went to join the game, I had to buy a pledge to join, and give all the fuss, muss and carrying on about how few people jumped on the free beta trial before the wipe, I highly doubt 380 of their created accounts were free.

    Lets see, 80 K backers since Kickstarter.

    3 Years of Selling Accounts to a playable game.

    Seems reasonable they could have sold the 464K accounts they have active. 
    Sigh... always so stubborn.  You are going to go with the concept that they sold 65000 accounts from Kickstarter to last Jan and then 400,000 accounts from last Jan to now?

    Come on man.  That makes zero sense.  
    Where do you get 65K accounts from?
    YashaX
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    edited June 2021
    Ungood said:
    Ungood said:
    Ungood said:
    Just to play some numbers, so people might get a feel for how well this game will do.

    They have sold around 480K Accounts. 

    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 48K players, investing 15 a month, that would be 720K a month, or put another way 2.16 million a quarter.

    That's NOT bad. 
    I had a feeling so I just had to look. I'm not trying to start a fight but that info is just wrong. 
    As @kyleran was kind enough to compile for us, these are the numbers they had on their Pledge page:
    449,502 Total Crows.
    $38,323,372 Total Funding.
    76,983 Total Backers.
    $27,103,740 Total Equity
    $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    They haven't SOLD 480k accounts.  Those are accounts CREATED.  Not purchases.  They have (lets be kind and call it) 80k backers.

    So plugging THAT into your math shows: 
    If say, 10% of those accounts return and sub, that would be 8k players, investing 15 a month, that would be 120K a month, or put another way 360 thousand a quarter.

    To extrapolate further:
    That is 1.4 million a year.
    Their equity investors put in $27 MILLION
    Lets assume they have some ridiculous 50% margins
    That means they have 700k a year (It also means their whole staff, rent, servers, bandwidth, etc only cost 700k a month but whatever)
    700k a year would mean that the investors will break even in the year 2059

    So lets just agree that math sucks.  I do not think the investors are interested in a ROI of 40 years.


    If you have anything to support a sudden surge in purchases from 80k to 480k PAID accounts please do share it with us...

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    THIS is why I continually speak to the fact that the dead servers and unused keys are a HUGELY bad sign for the game.  They do not have enough players that bought the game and are just sitting around waiting for launch.   They NEED to get hundreds of thousands of NEW players.  The guild of 200 who all bought the game are not going to move the needle at launch whether they come back or not because they already bought the game AND some (likely a lot) of sub time.   The NEW people (who the empty severs and unused keys show are NOT giving a look at the game) would be contributing $40 box fees PLUS some will sub sub.  A new player is worth an order of magnitude more than the ones that already paid, and THOSE are the people that would be looking at the game now, seeing what changed and making their decision on buying it.

    This isn't a game I want to see fail.  It's by far the game that I spent the most money on ($215 which was some of the profit from selling my Pathfinder Online accounts).  I sold back like 2 years of VIP (had 5.5) that came with it and bought all the pixel toys like Castles, Keeps, Forts, Guildhalls, etc...   I have zero incentive to be negative as even if I don't play, I could always sell those items at a huge discount to the store and make bank on it.  But it's just reality that this game needs a miracle.  Maybe that will happen.  We will see.

    If a month after launch we have 50 campaigns going.  That would be fantastic and likely make me a lot of cash.


    PS: For reference, Lost Ark which is another translation of an asian MMORPG just had all their 14000 keys claimed on here in 3 hours and that's for a 4 day test.
    While I am unsure of how often they have tossed out free accounts to players, I know when I went to join the game, I had to buy a pledge to join, and give all the fuss, muss and carrying on about how few people jumped on the free beta trial before the wipe, I highly doubt 380 of their created accounts were free.

    Lets see, 80 K backers since Kickstarter.

    3 Years of Selling Accounts to a playable game.

    Seems reasonable they could have sold the 464K accounts they have active. 
    Sigh... always so stubborn.  You are going to go with the concept that they sold 65000 accounts from Kickstarter to last Jan and then 400,000 accounts from last Jan to now?

    Come on man.  That makes zero sense.  
    Where do you get 65K accounts from?
    The quote from Coleman that I showed above. 

    FYI Here is a quote from Coleman ( Jan 2020) where he says "As we said back in our Kickstarter, crowdfunding is a key part of our funding strategy, but not the only part. While we’re incredibly thankful for the financial support, it’s even more exciting to have more than 65,000 people willing to pay for Crowfall as proof that a market exists for what we are building. "

    Why do you have to fight everything?  It's literally what he said.  Then their funding page (which they just took down) literally said: 76,983 Total Backers. So I rounded up to 80k for easy math.  Even if you just look at the money part.  On their funding page it said :$38,323,372 Total Funding which broke down to $27,103,740 Total Equity $6,520,795 Total Pledges.

    If we used your number of 480000 PAID accounts it would mean they sold for an average of $13... 

    Now that I explained my source as Coleman and the actual Artcraft Funding website please return the favor and show the source for your 480000 paid accounts number.

    And now that I see you thought they had SOLD close to 500,000 accounts I understand some of your prior statements.   But hopefully now that you see they actually only sold a fraction of that amount and the rest are just lookie loos, maybe you can understand why I harp on the importance of the beta keys and people actually giving the game another look before launch.   To succeed the game NEEDS those hundreds of thousands of fence sitters to jump in.   They NEED to sell new accounts.

    Post edited by Slapshot1188 on
    YashaX

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

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  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    Current search results for Crowfall Funding.  The site was shut on May 29th.





    YashaXScorchien

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • BruceYeeBruceYee Member EpicPosts: 2,556

    Here's the simplified rundown of everything written between Ungood and Slapshot...

    Some people will play
    Some people won't
    =
    The End
    +
    Some people will pay
    Some people won't
    =
    The End

    The amount of beta keys used in an X amount of time means nothing for a indie PVP MMO launching next month that cost 15-20mil to make that already has thousands of paying backers. There's no definite way to determine anything income related after launch by arguing the X amount of copies sold or accounts created.

    Everyone trying to convince people not to look at CF either don't realize or intentionally leave out that it's a very involved game that requires quite a bit of thought put into it compared to other MMO's which is why it may for some seem "boring".

    Everyone NOT playing the beta right now is better off READING up about the details about the game. The differences between what race you pick to do certain crafting is more significant than many other MMO's. Some racials in combat are waaaay better than others and picking a combat class and race without taking into account their racials could possibly make you miserable and even reroll after wasting a lot of time. Anyone planning to play who is NOT reading up and planning right now how they'll be starting off at launch are IMO doing themselves a disservice.
    UngoodYashaX
  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,530
    Current search results for Crowfall Funding.  The site was shut on May 29th.





    If 77K people, invested 6 Million Dollars, which comes out to around 77 dollars each.

    Which means they have already given away 388k free keys by the way (Might explain why there is no mad rush for more free keys at this point.. hummm) and where so many players were like "I only last 15 min playing, I mean really, if I dumped $77 into a game, I would play till I got my dollars worth. Which, hey, thanks for the realization that the negative posters might have been the vast numbers of freeloader key give always. makes sense that people would be more critical of something they got for free.

    With that mind, if say, realistically, because these were early backers, and not people that were looking for a F2P ride, and they paid to be part of the game, and did so very early, so, because they already have money and time invested, and no small amount mind you, lets say, 70% still say screw it, and don't show up at all.

    That's still roughly 23K players at launch, more than enough to have several servers worth of 2K players engaging in full scale war.

    As far as money goes again, if 70% of their paid backers opted to bail, they would still be looking to make 4 Million annual, and that would be under the assumption the game drew in zero additional players outside the players that already bought the game, which is highly unlikely, given that 388K additional gamers were willing to give the beta a Try, and might also be waiting for launch before they put time and money into it, which, is a very common practice as well which is why game companies give away free beta keys, or trials, as it were, to start with, to entice players to buy the game when it launches.

    So in the end, we have 388K gamers, outside their 77K backers that have shown enough interest into the game to at least give it a try, just because they did not all stampede in this month, does not change that number.

    The next question would be, of those 388K free keys given out, how many of them might turn into actual paid accounts. If even only 2% of them turned up to play at launch, that would be over 7 Thousand additional players into the game, and putting their income numbers somewhere around $450K a month, or put another way, near to 5.4 Million a year.

    And that would be with only a 2% turnout from all the free keys they have given away already.

    Really, if you want to cry doom and gloom, I am not one to stop you, but, even in modest numbers and such, unless the game goers ass backwards and belly up, somehow, it's not looking to be in that bad a place.

    Keep mind also, that after launch, which means they have met all obligations to their backers, by making and launching a MMO, they are will be free to persue other ventures with their engine, which they have already made it clear they would, and more power to them in that venture. So, they might already be sitting on some other lucrative deals regarding their engine, far more than Crowfall might turn out to be, and if that is the case, so be it.

    After all, I believe you stand by the idea that no one should get butt hurt when a company does what they say they will.
    BruceYeeGdemami
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    BruceYee said:


    The amount of beta keys used in an X amount of time means nothing for a indie PVP MMO launching next month that cost 15-20mil to make that already has thousands of paying backers. 


    Here is a simplified explanation.
    They need NEW backers.  Not old ones.   They already sold me the game and enough VIP time to get me to 2025.  I am not the person they need to convince. They already spent all the money they will ever get from me.

    What they need to do to survive is get the people who have NOT bought the game to do so.   You think they are all ignoring the free chance to try the game for themselves and are focused on READING.   OK.  I think that highly unlikely but sure, I can't prove it.  Maybe there are 400k people that are spending their weekends looking at the same 3 charts that show classes, disciplines, and racial bonuses instead of trying the game.  I doubt it but we will see in a few months.
    YashaXGdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 16,984
    Ungood said:


    The next question would be, of those 388K free keys given out, how many of them might turn into actual paid accounts. If even only 2% of them turned up to play at launch, that would be over 7 Thousand additional players into the game, and putting their income numbers somewhere around $450K a month, or put another way, near to 5.4 Million a year.

     
    Let's not even argue that. Lets (again) use your numbers.  5.4 million a year.  Lets assume they have a world class 50% margin rate.  So the investors get a share of 2.7M.   Well the investors put in 27Mil.  That's a 10 year ROI to break even (without the founders taking any cash, just pure distribution to the investors).  And that's 10 years from launch not 10 years from when they gave the cash.

    And let's just get facts straight.  The ONLY reason we are having this discussion is because you mistakenly claimed they had 480,000 PAID accounts.  I'm not shouting doom and gloom.  I am correcting your factual error, to which by the way you have never supplied your source.  I just plugged the real numbers into the math YOU showed.

    I'm going to be in there on July 6th.  So far we are up to 4 in my crew (of 9) that will give it another look.  The game will have 2 weeks to hook us before they join me in the New World Beta.

    The absolute BEST thing would be for this game to take off.  I could sell off some of the Kickstarter Perks for hundreds if not thousands of dollars.  Lets hope you are right and there are a few hundred thousand new people coming into the game and like it enough to buy up :)


    laxieYashaXGdemami

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • UngoodUngood Member LegendaryPosts: 7,530
    Ungood said:


    The next question would be, of those 388K free keys given out, how many of them might turn into actual paid accounts. If even only 2% of them turned up to play at launch, that would be over 7 Thousand additional players into the game, and putting their income numbers somewhere around $450K a month, or put another way, near to 5.4 Million a year.

     
    Let's not even argue that. Lets (again) use your numbers.  5.4 million a year.  Lets assume they have a world class 50% margin rate.  So the investors get a share of 2.7M.   Well the investors put in 27Mil.  That's a 10 year ROI to break even (without the founders taking any cash, just pure distribution to the investors).  And that's 10 years from launch not 10 years from when they gave the cash.

    And let's just get facts straight.  The ONLY reason we are having this discussion is because you mistakenly claimed they had 480,000 PAID accounts.  I'm not shouting doom and gloom.  I am correcting your factual error, to which by the way you have never supplied your source.  I just plugged the real numbers into the math YOU showed.

    I'm going to be in there on July 6th.  So far we are up to 4 in my crew (of 9) that will give it another look.  The game will have 2 weeks to hook us before they join me in the New World Beta.

    The absolute BEST thing would be for this game to take off.  I could sell off some of the Kickstarter Perks for hundreds if not thousands of dollars.  Lets hope you are right and there are a few hundred thousand new people coming into the game and like it enough to buy up :)


    If you just want to sell your KS perks, might as well just put them on some auction house regardless of the outcome. I mean, lets be honest, this game was NEVER gonna be BIG, it was always going to be a niche' game, Art Craft knew that from the start as well, which is why they talked about licensing the engine. No doubt their backers knew this as well, and knew that the real money was not going to be in Crowfall, but in the engine.

    I mean even with my faulty numbers of 460K paid accounts only coming with 10%, this was still a side player at best. Good enough to stay alive and grow, but was never going to be big time.

    Anything else.. really.. Meh. Beyond, of course, laying death and ass kicking on all my opponents for as long as the fun lasts.
    Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.

  • laxielaxie Member RarePosts: 1,118
    I'm looking forward to the launch as well. Hopefully they have a nice advertising budget and a lot of people will show up.

    Most of my friends don't really know much about Crowfall. It's not been that talked about recently - even in the MMORPG circles if you think about it. Combine that with the fact that people will throw their money at any new launch these days. I'm hoping it could sell to a lot of new users.

    As others mentioned, it could monetise very well using the EK parcels and still keep the gameplay integrity largely untouched. Even with a niche sized playerbase.
    BruceYeeUngood
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