Well, in all fairness his "proofs" aka twitch numbers are in fact proof of the decline of peoples interest in the game.
Actually, it is nothing more than proof that peoples interest in watching streamers play WoW, not interest in the game itself, has declined.
There is a correlation between streaming popularity and retention. It's an indicator, like a thermometer, not an influencer like a heater or cooler. Although streamers can influence numbers short term, it's mostly interest that drives what streamers play. A declining interest in watching streamers play the game can be correlated to an overall declining interest and eventual retention.
People are going to talk about this and pick it apart and dissect everything Blizzard and these players do. You might as well get used to that. Blizzard still has far too great an influence on the industry for this to fly under the radar. WoW has affected the industry for good and bad so, no people aren't going to get to play in peace. Every little thing will be hashed and rehashed because if any reboot will have repercussions, this one will.
While undoubtedly true, I am curious how this trend works for MMOs. Imagine a game like a MOBA, players watching pros stream their sessions to learn their tricks will keep watching until they lose interest in the game. Someone watching a single-player game's stream might be looking to learn from the streamer but is more likely to watch to figure out if they game is worth a buy. In the case of MMOs I am puzzled: why would anyone watch a streaming session, aside of course from the regular followers a streamer might have or from the launch craze?
It is true that there is a correlation between twtich views and games' popularity, but in the case of MMOs I doubt the correlation is that obvious, less so than in the case of FPSs or full-PVP games.
I think that in the case of Classic it's more about the game's popularity on twitch at launch being "too" high due to popular streamers playing the new sensation, to world first level 60s, to Ragnaros' first kills (the saxon genitive is right where it should be, seeing people die to the fire lord is surely more entertaining than watching them kill him), first to run through Timbermaw hold without dying, and so on. Once those things become old the numbers should stabilize. So in my opinion, if there is a trend to be read, it should have to be the comparison between twitch popularity 1 month after launch and twitch popularity 3 months after launch, and so on.
I would say one of the biggest reasons the twitch viewer count dropped is simply because people are making it into the game vs setting in a que waiting to get in. Alot of people watching on twitch was doing so cause they where in a que and couldn't get in to play themselfs. Not that the number of servers has increased to a point where that is less of a issue the viewer count dropped.
Kano has been like that for a while now. I remember once I enjoyed his posts, but now he's just doom and gloom and rejoicing about the supposed failure of games. I barely read his posts anymore, they are predictable and boring (and borderline trolling, too, wtf are you doing on the WoW forum if you don't like WoW).
You can say the same about about he majority of people on this forum. You only calling him out because you don't agree with him and that's the environment that we live in these days.
There are people I often disagree with that I'm enjoying reading because they often surprise me. He's not. He's just posting the same stuff over and over again. Not to mention the bullshit "proofs" he's using like Twitch numbers.
Well, in all fairness his "proofs" aka twitch numbers are in fact proof of the decline of peoples interest in the game. Does it talk about players, no, but popularity, yes. Generally you can use twitch numbers to prove a games hype. Its not evidence of playerbase, but overall interest. This thread however is just complete BS.
Pretty much my point. All those Twitch losers are only surfing on hype. Very few are really genuinely interested in the game they are targeting and are staying. You can be sure many haven't even played WoW before, even less Vanilla, yet they were here for launch to get those precious dollars from the morons who blindly follow them on Twitch and watch their sponsors and advertisements.
Sounds to me like someone is jealous people have found a way to make money.
I think that is characters created. It is probally more like 750k which is still great. I am absoultely loving it. The most fun I have had in a MMO since Lotro Mines of Moria. I never played wow much before (lotro was always my main game before it got ruined) so it isnt nostaglia, its is just a well made game.
I don't think so. The addon takes a snapshot of people logged into a character. The site he linked to states - "Currently we have 6,187,475 characters in the database." So the amount of characters that the addon logged is far different from the numbers of people playing. \
Which makes sense since people aren't really going to log into characters they created just for name holders. I have no active alts. I doubt many people are actively leveling alts at this time, so the characters logged versus active logins seems to make sense on its face.
Edit - here is a link to the site and the breakdown. Feel free to pick it apart and post any obvious info I missed. Only characters greater than level 5 were captured (according to the charts).
Well, for what it's worth, I have a character of each class that is at least level 5 and out of the starting area. I've always had a serious case of alt-itis, so clearly I'm not normal.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Clearly a failure of epic proportions....we know not what we really want, of course (nostalgia blah blah blah blah). rofl.
I gave up on my original server choice because it is still full during primetime every freaking day.
Some servers will remain very popular while others will not.
5 EU servers are showing declining population:
meanwhile US realms while declining are more populated than EU realms:
You have to remember that players initially play same game far more hours/day than they'd play long term. Assuming that those numbers are about players connecting to the server, then NA must have gained active players to keep the population stable as that initial rush passes.
I do believe the population will drop, but honestly I'm at the moment surprised it's not dropping faster.
It is dropping fast though - after the 1st month, how many stay subbed?
Also WoW classic has a major issue with lacking content at end game - so as more players level up - more will leave as they hit endgame.
So the rate of players leaving is likely to increase.
I subbed for 3 months and plan on playing at least that long, maybe more depending on how things go.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Has the "other" WoW suffered big loss since classic launched?
From what I saw posted - yes. But the numbers were pulled from the same census addon thing, which no one seems to believe so. One post said retail only had 20k active players, another 300k something (could be high 300k though). The 20k seems very fishy and no link was given showing anything to back it up. Just numbers the guy himself posted. Or zherself, whatever lingo kids are using these days.
Maybe the twitch numbers are down because the people who were watching it are now playing it.
just saying
Twitch is a good name for it, as the ADHD kids twitch from one game to the next chasing those waves.... Then a pretty girl farts on stream and the wheels come off....
Player interactions, whether good or bad, is what is missing from modern MMORPG's. Can't tag mobs or do quests? Make a group or join a guild and have them help. If you don't want to play with others in the open world, then you're playing the wrong version of the game.
Groups are great for non low item drop chance quests, escort quests, kill count quests. They hurt you for the drop chance quests. But I agree - 90% of the players should go back to retail so I can complete quests more easily. Classic is mine. I called it long ago.
Its also not as easy as that. In feralis during the chicken escort quests, right at the end this piece of shit troll hunter killed me at the last big spawn of the quest. So I paid him back. And he has been toying with me and following me around and killing the shit out of me at the worst times.
He used to spit on me a lot, but now we are kind of buddies I think. He is four levels higher than me now, and I was doing the dinosaur quests in unguru and he likes to wait until just before I'm in position behind a mob to tap them. His pet does aoe so I like to pull devilsaurs onto the pet and have the pet get agro when I can.
Its kind of quality player interaction having a psycho follow you around and stealing your mobs and killing you right at the end of almost killing an elite, etc. But its annoying and gets old. I think he was doing ST or another dungeon when I was in Blasted Lands as he wasn't there, so I thought I was in for some easy questing - but nope. Fucking basalik brains.
Has the "other" WoW suffered big loss since classic launched?
From what I saw posted - yes. But the numbers were pulled from the same census addon thing, which no one seems to believe so. One post said retail only had 20k active players, another 300k something (could be high 300k though). The 20k seems very fishy and no link was given showing anything to back it up. Just numbers the guy himself posted. Or zherself, whatever lingo kids are using these days.
Good additional info.
My view on any number is that we don't "know" and that estimates based on characters don't tell us that much. What your additional info suggests though is that if someone takes this as solid evidence that vanilla has "millions" of players then they also have to accept that retail isn't seeing any new characters - the implications of which are fuzzy!
Potentially stuff like this can provide trend lines. So if the number of new characters being created (say) doesn't decline that would suggest that classic was continuing to attract as many players "today" as it was at launch. Or if new character creation declines significantly the reverse. Same with retail.
Kano has been like that for a while now. I remember once I enjoyed his posts, but now he's just doom and gloom and rejoicing about the supposed failure of games. I barely read his posts anymore, they are predictable and boring (and borderline trolling, too, wtf are you doing on the WoW forum if you don't like WoW).
You can say the same about about he majority of people on this forum. You only calling him out because you don't agree with him and that's the environment that we live in these days.
There are people I often disagree with that I'm enjoying reading because they often surprise me. He's not. He's just posting the same stuff over and over again. Not to mention the bullshit "proofs" he's using like Twitch numbers.
Well, in all fairness his "proofs" aka twitch numbers are in fact proof of the decline of peoples interest in the game. Does it talk about players, no, but popularity, yes. Generally you can use twitch numbers to prove a games hype. Its not evidence of playerbase, but overall interest. This thread however is just complete BS.
Pretty much my point. All those Twitch losers are only surfing on hype. Very few are really genuinely interested in the game they are targeting and are staying. You can be sure many haven't even played WoW before, even less Vanilla, yet they were here for launch to get those precious dollars from the morons who blindly follow them on Twitch and watch their sponsors and advertisements.
Sounds to me like someone is jealous people have found a way to make money.
Please call me the day I'm jealous of the useless... really, do it. Because I'm not. And fact is, those people work with hype, that's how they make money. Most of them, of course, not all.
And to use your method of assumptions... you sound like a streamer. You aren't? Really? Look what I did here...
I'm not the one sitting there calling people losers or morons because I happen to not agree with what they're doing. And you're right, i'm not a streamer but If i was good at it, you bet your ass I would be doing it. Only an idiot would call people losers or morons for knowing how to make money.
A lot of very angry people in every post about WoW. Most of which don't even play the game. Hope you guys find happiness. Diet and exercise go a long way with not only physical but mental health.
I subbed for 3 months and plan on playing at least that long, maybe more depending on how things go.
The difference between classic and retail WoW is how long it takes you to do stuff. Classic will take the very casual player like me a very long time to hit max level and even when players hit 60 they may realize they want to play different class so they'll start over again. Sure some people will not sleep and max out characters very fast but my guess is there are quite a few now in their late 30's, 40, 50 who will not mind letting their sub renew because it's still a lot cheaper than mobile games.
When people in this thread and others assume players will leave after 1-3 months it's probably based on the same idea that all the new content can be experienced in that time like in other MMO's for the past 10 years. Also battlegrounds will be added soon'ish and that's endless repeatable content right there for pvpers.
When people in this thread and others assume players will leave after 1-3 months it's probably based on the same idea that all the new content can be experienced in that time like in other MMO's for the past 10 years. Also battlegrounds will be added soon'ish and that's endless repeatable content right there for pvpers.
No. The assumption is based on the past history of multiple games. Games including vanilla WoW!
WoW - according to Blizzard - hit 100M accounts in c. 10 years. Huge success. Staggering. An average of 10M new accounts a year.
Consider what that means though - the 10M is an average but as time advances this matters less and less.
First 2 years: 20M accounts. Vanilla subs peaked at c. 7M. So it "lost" 13M. So loss rate of about two-thirds.
During TBC another 20M new accounts - so 40M. Subs peaked at c. 8M so 32M "lost". Over 70%. During WotLK, c. 2 more years, so 60M. Subs peaked at c. 10M. So nearly 90%.
Factor in that some people return for expansions and the loss rate is even higher. Ditto for people who have stayed subbed "forever". And with the later expansions you rapidly approach the absolute total.
Hence vanilla WoW itself with its "slower" content is one of the games being used as an example of what to expect.
Is anything different this time around? Well:
1. Some players are - safe to assume - returning players. Maybe these folk stuck around "longer" the first time around; 3 months rather than 1 month say. No data on this so its just a thought. If this is the case though it would delay any fall off.
Note that since Blizzard put out sub numbers every 3 months this must have been the "top end" of an average player duration. More and we would have had to have seen higher sub numbers - its the constant arrival of new accounts.
2. New players to vanilla - no reason the loss rate should be any better this time around. An argument could be made for a faster drop off since people are more used to QoL stuff.
3. No sign of a steady drumbeat of new accounts. Maybe this will happen but no sign yet. So declines this time will be absolute. No new accounts to mask the decline.
How will it play out? Time will tell. The assumption that people - including Blizzard - are making though is based on what has happened for the last 20 years. Not just with games either.
I subbed for 3 months and plan on playing at least that long, maybe more depending on how things go.
The difference between classic and retail WoW is how long it takes you to do stuff. Classic will take the very casual player like me a very long time to hit max level and even when players hit 60 they may realize they want to play different class so they'll start over again. Sure some people will not sleep and max out characters very fast but my guess is there are quite a few now in their late 30's, 40, 50 who will not mind letting their sub renew because it's still a lot cheaper than mobile games.
When people in this thread and others assume players will leave after 1-3 months it's probably based on the same idea that all the new content can be experienced in that time like in other MMO's for the past 10 years. Also battlegrounds will be added soon'ish and that's endless repeatable content right there for pvpers.
I have two characters at lvl 21, the rest are at 5 or 6. I'll be lucky to get one of them to 60 by the end of the year. I'm in no hurry plus I still have a job and I'm getting older so I can't play day and night like others can. My poop socking days are long over.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Has the "other" WoW suffered big loss since classic launched?
From what I saw posted - yes. But the numbers were pulled from the same census addon thing, which no one seems to believe so. One post said retail only had 20k active players, another 300k something (could be high 300k though). The 20k seems very fishy and no link was given showing anything to back it up. Just numbers the guy himself posted. Or zherself, whatever lingo kids are using these days.
That is so amusing. The game is fighting itself for popularity and classic is winning....woot!!
The game is fighting itself for popularity and classic is winning....woot!!
Yes. But honestly: Meh.
Classic is still *new*.
So show me that WoW Classic is still winning over regular WoW in at least 6 months, if not 12 or 24 months, then that would actually matter.
Frankly I'm not too optimistic about that happening.
Because it won't. Once the sheer novelty wears off and people start to look at it without the rose-tinted glasses of 2005, it'll become incredibly obvious just how grindy and tedious playing classic really is compared to what they're offered now.
And if that doesn't kill the idea into the ground, hitting level 60 and realizing there isn't anything else to do definitely will. We're talking about a game that's smaller, more primitive, and more limited in scope. I'll be surprised if it lasts 6 months.
Also, none of this will be the same as playing the game back in 2005. It just won't. You can't put the lightning back in a bottle again. You kinda just had to be there to experience it.
The game is fighting itself for popularity and classic is winning....woot!!
Yes. But honestly: Meh.
Classic is still *new*.
So show me that WoW Classic is still winning over regular WoW in at least 6 months, if not 12 or 24 months, then that would actually matter.
Frankly I'm not too optimistic about that happening.
There's a quite large crowd who has been playing on unstable private servers which gave to warranty to be still there the next day for years now.
Classic definitely will lose players, but those people have now found a home where they can enjoy the game they love without the risk of it closing down, without the private server moderators which were often corrupt, without the illegality... I don't think Classic will "fail" anytime soon.
Comments
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Gut Out!
What, me worry?
Gut Out!
What, me worry?
Its also not as easy as that. In feralis during the chicken escort quests, right at the end this piece of shit troll hunter killed me at the last big spawn of the quest. So I paid him back. And he has been toying with me and following me around and killing the shit out of me at the worst times.
He used to spit on me a lot, but now we are kind of buddies I think. He is four levels higher than me now, and I was doing the dinosaur quests in unguru and he likes to wait until just before I'm in position behind a mob to tap them. His pet does aoe so I like to pull devilsaurs onto the pet and have the pet get agro when I can.
Its kind of quality player interaction having a psycho follow you around and stealing your mobs and killing you right at the end of almost killing an elite, etc. But its annoying and gets old. I think he was doing ST or another dungeon when I was in Blasted Lands as he wasn't there, so I thought I was in for some easy questing - but nope. Fucking basalik brains.
My view on any number is that we don't "know" and that estimates based on characters don't tell us that much. What your additional info suggests though is that if someone takes this as solid evidence that vanilla has "millions" of players then they also have to accept that retail isn't seeing any new characters - the implications of which are fuzzy!
Potentially stuff like this can provide trend lines. So if the number of new characters being created (say) doesn't decline that would suggest that classic was continuing to attract as many players "today" as it was at launch. Or if new character creation declines significantly the reverse. Same with retail.
WoW - according to Blizzard - hit 100M accounts in c. 10 years. Huge success. Staggering. An average of 10M new accounts a year.
Consider what that means though - the 10M is an average but as time advances this matters less and less.
First 2 years: 20M accounts. Vanilla subs peaked at c. 7M. So it "lost" 13M. So loss rate of about two-thirds.
During TBC another 20M new accounts - so 40M. Subs peaked at c. 8M so 32M "lost". Over 70%.
During WotLK, c. 2 more years, so 60M. Subs peaked at c. 10M. So nearly 90%.
Factor in that some people return for expansions and the loss rate is even higher. Ditto for people who have stayed subbed "forever". And with the later expansions you rapidly approach the absolute total.
Hence vanilla WoW itself with its "slower" content is one of the games being used as an example of what to expect.
Is anything different this time around? Well:
1. Some players are - safe to assume - returning players. Maybe these folk stuck around "longer" the first time around; 3 months rather than 1 month say. No data on this so its just a thought. If this is the case though it would delay any fall off.
Note that since Blizzard put out sub numbers every 3 months this must have been the "top end" of an average player duration. More and we would have had to have seen higher sub numbers - its the constant arrival of new accounts.
2. New players to vanilla - no reason the loss rate should be any better this time around. An argument could be made for a faster drop off since people are more used to QoL stuff.
3. No sign of a steady drumbeat of new accounts. Maybe this will happen but no sign yet. So declines this time will be absolute. No new accounts to mask the decline.
How will it play out? Time will tell. The assumption that people - including Blizzard - are making though is based on what has happened for the last 20 years. Not just with games either.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?
Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.
And if that doesn't kill the idea into the ground, hitting level 60 and realizing there isn't anything else to do definitely will. We're talking about a game that's smaller, more primitive, and more limited in scope. I'll be surprised if it lasts 6 months.
Also, none of this will be the same as playing the game back in 2005. It just won't. You can't put the lightning back in a bottle again. You kinda just had to be there to experience it.
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