Hofstadter's Law prevents complicated programming projects from giving accurate timelines far ahead of time.
Simple programming projects may have fairly predictable timelines. Or if all that matters is that the project technically offers all of the features on some list, even if they're clunky or buggy, that can be decently predictable.
The problem is that we don't want the simplest possible game that technically meets all of the bullet points claimed on the Kickstarter. We want a game that is actually fun to play. That makes things massively harder.
Sometimes you code something up, try it out, and find out that how the mechanic works is not at all similar to what you had in mind. You can keep to the schedule if you say, it's fine and let's move on. But a game that keeps to its schedule by doing that a whole bunch of times is going to be awful.
If you want to make a good game, you're going to have to go back and redo a whole bunch of things. Sometimes it's relatively minor tweaks. Sometimes some chunk needs to be thrown out and rewritten from scratch. Sometimes something that seemed fine on its own conflicts horribly with something else that is added a year later.
Having to redo things that you had previously done can greatly delay a game. But you'll have to do it a lot of times if you want the game to be good.
Games or any program can run way behind schedules, when you decide to rewrite entire systems. Essentially, they scrapped their ability system I believe and had to redo it from scratch. Its been a while since I read about it.
I'm willing to bet not many people on this thread have ever tried to create a product from scratch from idealization to commercialization. When doing that you make allot of assumptions in the idea/vision phase. You swag your estimates and if you are within a 100% of your initial estimate over/under, consider it a success.
When you start to design systems and smoke test them and they don't meet your standards and you have to scrap rewrite/redesign the entire systems it adds a ton of time. This is completely normal in software development.
I've designed two real-time applications for the drilling industry over the past 19 years of my career. The second time wasn't any easier, I was just better prepared to handle the highs and lows of the marathon. These projects if done correctly are marathons with sprints mixed in.
Some of the smartest dudes I know in Drilling Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Physics etc... are wrong on their dates and timelines all the time.
You show me one software development project that was 100% on time and I'll show you a project that didn't do anything new and/or cut features. If it was delivered on time with the same feature set; I can guarantee you that they worked 80+ hours a week, every week, to make up for lost time.
Look at what you get in your annualized sports titles. Very little new, very little risk taking. Because they have hard deadlines for an annualized release. You can't do that with a new MMO.
So... in your vast experience did your company ever charge a customer up front, tell them it would take 2 years, and then 6 years in still not have delivered or even have an estimate on that delivery?
No. Somehow I doubt that.
Now CU at least offers refunds. So to me that’s fine. But let’s stop making silly statements like nobody can be 100% on time when we are in year 6 of a 2 year project.
Post edited by Slapshot1188 on
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
We can have nice, pretty cake to look at as our centrepiece, it really ties the room/table together.
Or we can eat delicious cake.
We can't have both.
Have you considered buying two cakes? Then you can have one cake and eat one, too.
I made the first cake reference as an analogy (obv), but I read your response at face value and now want cake xD
But within the analogy, how can we have two cakes? I dont see how we can have good games with the innovative difficult features we want AND demand tight timelines and no delays.
Six years and counting can in no way be considered a tight timeline and I well understand the many reasons for the delay to this point thus far.
I can't understand the unwillingness to publish a reasonable timeline, unless they truly don't know due to "reasons" of some sort which they haven't shared.
I am of the idea that hiring is behind the evasiveness of CSE. The first time they estimated a release date for winter 2019 they made sure to put there a big IF in the form of "if we find the right people to hire".
I've been asking how the hiring has been going on their Friday streams for the past year and the answer is never what I, as a player eager to start playing, hope for; it's never a simple "Great" or "we have all we need now" but it's always a bit vague like "we are interviewing a lot of people" "we have a few candidates coming in" and so on. Because of this, and I might be paralogizing, I am convinced that they still can't commit to more precise answers because they can't find enough talent to hire.
Games or any program can run way behind schedules, when you decide to rewrite entire systems. Essentially, they scrapped their ability system I believe and had to redo it from scratch. Its been a while since I read about it.
I'm willing to bet not many people on this thread have ever tried to create a product from scratch from idealization to commercialization. When doing that you make allot of assumptions in the idea/vision phase. You swag your estimates and if you are within a 100% of your initial estimate over/under, consider it a success.
When you start to design systems and smoke test them and they don't meet your standards and you have to scrap rewrite/redesign the entire systems it adds a ton of time. This is completely normal in software development.
I've designed two real-time applications for the drilling industry over the past 19 years of my career. The second time wasn't any easier, I was just better prepared to handle the highs and lows of the marathon. These projects if done correctly are marathons with sprints mixed in.
Some of the smartest dudes I know in Drilling Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Physics etc... are wrong on their dates and timelines all the time.
You show me one software development project that was 100% on time and I'll show you a project that didn't do anything new and/or cut features. If it was delivered on time with the same feature set; I can guarantee you that they worked 80+ hours a week, every week, to make up for lost time.
Look at what you get in your annualized sports titles. Very little new, very little risk taking. Because they have hard deadlines for an annualized release. You can't do that with a new MMO.
So... in your vast experience did your company ever charge a customer up front, tell them it would take 2 years, and then 6 years in still not have delivered or even have an estimate on that delivery?
No. Somehow I doubt that.
Now CU at least offers refunds. So to me that’s fine. But let’s stop making silly statements like nobody can be 100% on time when we are in year 6 of a 2 year project.
There's no certainty here.
It's possible CSE just sucks at estimating timelines and is in the bottom 10% globally at time management/estimating.
It's also possible that doing 8 different hard things and mashing them together into a coherent fun game is hard as fuck to know how long it'll take.
Which brings me to something I've already arrived at for me, and encourage you all to do:
Pick a firm stale-date for this (or any in-development) game to be good, and past that point, stop paying attention.
I've decided my date for Camelot Unchained is October 2022. After that, they're into over-9-years territory, and if they don't have something fun by then, I'm going to stop paying attention to the game until it comes screaming across my consciousness because YouTube is shouting at me that that's just how damn good the game is that I must give it another look.
I don't think that's the date YOU should pick, but that's what makes sense for me.
Decide on whatever your date is, and stick to it.
(edit: in case anyone swoops in on the date I chose, pick your own fucking date and get off my nutsack - you know who you are).
Games or any program can run way behind schedules, when you decide to rewrite entire systems. Essentially, they scrapped their ability system I believe and had to redo it from scratch. Its been a while since I read about it.
I'm willing to bet not many people on this thread have ever tried to create a product from scratch from idealization to commercialization. When doing that you make allot of assumptions in the idea/vision phase. You swag your estimates and if you are within a 100% of your initial estimate over/under, consider it a success.
When you start to design systems and smoke test them and they don't meet your standards and you have to scrap rewrite/redesign the entire systems it adds a ton of time. This is completely normal in software development.
I've designed two real-time applications for the drilling industry over the past 19 years of my career. The second time wasn't any easier, I was just better prepared to handle the highs and lows of the marathon. These projects if done correctly are marathons with sprints mixed in.
Some of the smartest dudes I know in Drilling Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Physics etc... are wrong on their dates and timelines all the time.
You show me one software development project that was 100% on time and I'll show you a project that didn't do anything new and/or cut features. If it was delivered on time with the same feature set; I can guarantee you that they worked 80+ hours a week, every week, to make up for lost time.
Look at what you get in your annualized sports titles. Very little new, very little risk taking. Because they have hard deadlines for an annualized release. You can't do that with a new MMO.
Once again, battling a straw man few, if any are supporting. No one is saying software projects ever deliver on time, but seeing this one is coming up on 4 years overdue perhaps, just maybe they should be held accountable to provide a decent plan until delivery?
Apparently not, at least for some of you.
Yah, exactly, that's why I have (and continue) to ask why they don't pick a more realistic date than 2019 for release.
I'm not about to start making demands of them directly by email or on their official forums, because I try to avoid that particular scent of obnoxiousness.
But ya, fuck, the lack of upfrontness about an actual realistic set of timelines is my only real bug-in-my-sandwich for this game.
We can have nice, pretty cake to look at as our centrepiece, it really ties the room/table together.
Or we can eat delicious cake.
We can't have both.
Have you considered buying two cakes? Then you can have one cake and eat one, too.
I made the first cake reference as an analogy (obv), but I read your response at face value and now want cake xD
But within the analogy, how can we have two cakes? I dont see how we can have good games with the innovative difficult features we want AND demand tight timelines and no delays.
Six years and counting can in no way be considered a tight timeline and I well understand the many reasons for the delay to this point thus far.
I can't understand the unwillingness to publish a reasonable timeline, unless they truly don't know due to "reasons" of some sort which they haven't shared.
Yep, me neither, it baffles and frustrates me.
The one thing I've suggested above, and I don't think it's that wild a guess:
- they're afraid of mass refunds if they say, for hypothetical and extreme example: "late 2022" - that's basically 4 years away from now and they might actually get a ton of people refunding if they announce that date, as in hundreds of thousands of dollars of refund demands.
In that case, it might actually be the smarter business move to keep "optimism-ing" the date into the near future, never more than 1 year away, moving-window-style.
If they're doing that, I'm gonna be fucking unimpressed.
If they're actually this bad at estimating timelines for what they're doing, I'm going to be unimpressed.
If they make a kickass game that goes into open beta and is fun in 2.5 years and releases in 3 years I'll forget all this pretty damn quickly as will (93% of) the rest of us.
We can have nice, pretty cake to look at as our centrepiece, it really ties the room/table together.
Or we can eat delicious cake.
We can't have both.
Have you considered buying two cakes? Then you can have one cake and eat one, too.
I made the first cake reference as an analogy (obv), but I read your response at face value and now want cake xD
But within the analogy, how can we have two cakes? I dont see how we can have good games with the innovative difficult features we want AND demand tight timelines and no delays.
Six years and counting can in no way be considered a tight timeline and I well understand the many reasons for the delay to this point thus far.
I can't understand the unwillingness to publish a reasonable timeline, unless they truly don't know due to "reasons" of some sort which they haven't shared.
I am of the idea that hiring is behind the evasiveness of CSE. The first time they estimated a release date for winter 2019 they made sure to put there a big IF in the form of "if we find the right people to hire".
I've been asking how the hiring has been going on their Friday streams for the past year and the answer is never what I, as a player eager to start playing, hope for; it's never a simple "Great" or "we have all we need now" but it's always a bit vague like "we are interviewing a lot of people" "we have a few candidates coming in" and so on. Because of this, and I might be paralogizing, I am convinced that they still can't commit to more precise answers because they can't find enough talent to hire.
This sounds right, even on a recent stream they said they needed a few more programmers but didn't say whether a few was 2-3 (maybe a 10-20% increase) or 9 more (a 40-50% increase).
Edit: I'm gonna learn and remember to multiquote, I promise, sorry for all this lol.
I generally regard release dates as a lower bound. If everything goes perfectly all year, then launching the game by the end of the year is realistic. They know that not everything will go perfectly, and things going wrong will delay the game. But they don't know which things will go how wrong or how much of a delay that will cause.
I generally regard release dates as a lower bound. If everything goes perfectly all year, then launching the game by the end of the year is realistic. They know that not everything will go perfectly, and things going wrong will delay the game. But they don't know which things will go how wrong or how much of a delay that will cause.
That sounds like a non-dramatic and healthy approach, so obviously I can't do that...
I dunno.. and this is JUST me.. but.. I just don't wait for games.
I mean, I get that it's a thing (Obviously) but.. I just don't get it.. ya know.
I mean, hell, I can't even wait an hour in a restaurant to be seated.. I am not gonna wait months and years for a game to launch.
I donno.. it just has this vibe that the game 'Friendzoned" You, ya know.. Like "Sure baby, I'll eventually come around if you are just patient enough and spend lots of money on me"
Uggghhhh.. I feel unclean after making that analogy.. sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings.
Egotism is the anesthetic that dullens the pain of stupidity, this is why when I try to beat my head against the stupidity of other people, I only hurt myself.
I dunno.. and this is JUST me.. but.. I just don't wait for games.
I mean, I get that it's a thing (Obviously) but.. I just don't get it.. ya know.
I mean, hell, I can't even wait an hour in a restaurant to be seated.. I am not gonna wait months and years for a game to launch.
I donno.. it just has this vibe that the game 'Friendzoned" You, ya know.. Like "Sure baby, I'll eventually come around if you are just patient enough and spend lots of money on me"
Uggghhhh.. I feel unclean after making that analogy.. sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings.
lol.
Ya, I wouldn't advise it (waiting for a game) on anyone who isn't already wanting to do that.
I actually kind of enjoy the excitement for updates, the emotional turmoil (lol), but only because they seem to be making stuff that's what I want, I like the art style, movement style, feel and pace of combat, sounds, etc.
If I was in the dark about it, or it wasn't going the way I wanted, this would suck horribly and hopefully I would stop following it.
But mercifully that's not what's happening.
It's like my soap opera lol (not really joking xD).
Also, I last spent money on it 5 years ago and that's the last time I'm planning to spend more than $1 per year on it, so, there's that.
Kyleran said: just maybe they should be held accountable to provide a decent plan until delivery?
...that sjw thing never gets old, does it?
Just standard software development business practice, (do you even lift bro?) but maybe next time my boss asks for a delivery date I'll accuse him of being a SJW.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Just standard software development business practice, (do you even lift bro?) but maybe next time my boss asks for a delivery date I'll accuse him of being a SJW.
....your comments would be really witty if they weren't so horribly fallacious.
Just standard software development business practice, (do you even lift bro?) but maybe next time my boss asks for a delivery date I'll accuse him of being a SJW.
....your comments would be really witty if they weren't so horribly fallacious.
It is not even lol-worthy, it's just sad.
Thank you kettle.
Sometimes it seems like I'm the "Man in Black" having a conversation with this guy.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
The last timeline they gave us was for beta 1 on July 4th. They worked toward that date and came pretty close to hitting it. I'm not sure what you are complaining about?
They have been open the entire time about the delays and what is happening with the game. They explained what took them longer then planned.
Is your complaint that they won't give a new release date? Who cares, the game will be done when its done. If you don't like it get a refund...
BTW, I've seen projects that were off the mark by more then 100% yes. It happens. We were trying to design a resistivity downhole tool for 14 year and started over 4 different times and still haven't gotten the right product. Our Robotic Pipe Handler is 2 years behind schedule. Our rotary steerable tool 3 years behind schedule. Our new "rig cloud" platform is 2 years behind our initial estimates. Since we scrapped the first framework we designed it on and went in a different direction.
Again, unless you've ever developed something from creation to completion. Just shhh. You don't have a clue.
Just standard software development business practice, (do you even lift bro?) but maybe next time my boss asks for a delivery date I'll accuse him of being a SJW.
....your comments would be really witty if they weren't so horribly fallacious.
It is not even lol-worthy, it's just sad.
You're not very good at trolling even though you spend lots of time on it. Just an observation.
Sweet, glad to hear it. Ive heard theyve made lots of progress on performance over the past few months, battles with hundreds may be more realistic for Crowfall than people realize.
Sweet, glad to hear it. Ive heard theyve made lots of progress on performance over the past few months, battles with hundreds may be more realistic for Crowfall than people realize.
Does crowfall have character levels or no?
They continue to tweak things. There are currently 4 lanes for character improvement.
1. Offline skill training. This is account-wide and applies to all characters. 2. Character leveling (and skill acquisition) 3. Disciplines (Can be slotted to specialize or add skills) 4. Equipment and crafting
The character leveling is actually fairly easy. You can easily get to max level in a few days. At least on an unimproved body (vessel). There is a necromancy skill line that lets you craft better bodies (better stats) and they take more EXP to level.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Comments
Simple programming projects may have fairly predictable timelines. Or if all that matters is that the project technically offers all of the features on some list, even if they're clunky or buggy, that can be decently predictable.
The problem is that we don't want the simplest possible game that technically meets all of the bullet points claimed on the Kickstarter. We want a game that is actually fun to play. That makes things massively harder.
Sometimes you code something up, try it out, and find out that how the mechanic works is not at all similar to what you had in mind. You can keep to the schedule if you say, it's fine and let's move on. But a game that keeps to its schedule by doing that a whole bunch of times is going to be awful.
If you want to make a good game, you're going to have to go back and redo a whole bunch of things. Sometimes it's relatively minor tweaks. Sometimes some chunk needs to be thrown out and rewritten from scratch. Sometimes something that seemed fine on its own conflicts horribly with something else that is added a year later.
Having to redo things that you had previously done can greatly delay a game. But you'll have to do it a lot of times if you want the game to be good.
No. Somehow I doubt that.
Now CU at least offers refunds. So to me that’s fine. But let’s stop making silly statements like nobody can be 100% on time when we are in year 6 of a 2 year project.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Edit: I'm gonna learn and remember to multiquote, I promise, sorry for all this lol.
I mean, I get that it's a thing (Obviously) but.. I just don't get it.. ya know.
I mean, hell, I can't even wait an hour in a restaurant to be seated.. I am not gonna wait months and years for a game to launch.
I donno.. it just has this vibe that the game 'Friendzoned" You, ya know.. Like "Sure baby, I'll eventually come around if you are just patient enough and spend lots of money on me"
Uggghhhh.. I feel unclean after making that analogy.. sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
It is not even lol-worthy, it's just sad.
Sometimes it seems like I'm the "Man in Black" having a conversation with this guy.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
What a fucking edge lord.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
1. Offline skill training. This is account-wide and applies to all characters.
2. Character leveling (and skill acquisition)
3. Disciplines (Can be slotted to specialize or add skills)
4. Equipment and crafting
The character leveling is actually fairly easy. You can easily get to max level in a few days. At least on an unimproved body (vessel). There is a necromancy skill line that lets you craft better bodies (better stats) and they take more EXP to level.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018