My question to you would be why do you make it seem like your agenda to ensure failure by only posting publicly anything negative you can find in an attempt to turn people away from the game?
Maybe because Caspian has been doing a lot of shady stuff ever since the KS started and you as "investor" are not talking about that.
The public has a right to know about the bad aspects of this project.
Actually I would counter that the only way to ensure failure is to stay locked in the Ivory Tower and ignore the Harbingers. We’ve seen this play out countless times. Touch my robe and take my message to heart less you end up like poor Marley.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
A quick chronology of Worlds Adrift and Spatial IOS.
Sep 2014 WA gets underway. Summer 2015 Partnership with Spatial IOS announced, devs claims it will enable them to launch within a year. May 2017, WA launch date as still displaying on Steam. Jan 2018 WA still not launched, continuing concerns over disconnects and crashes, root cause TBC.
The longer development extends, the more it costs overall. If you are Chris Roberts you sell a few more ships, tanks or land plots to the faithful legions and carry onwards.
This team is basically doing the same, without outside investment they appear to be going with plan B, let the backers fund development.
Let's hope they have deep pockets.....because significant cost overruns are in the forecast.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Actually I would counter that the only way to ensure failure is to stay locked in the Ivory Tower and ignore the Harbingers. We’ve seen this play out countless times. Touch my robe and take my message to heart less you end up like poor Marley.
But in all honesty is there a game out there that can guarantee success when in production?
No, just like there's no 100% chance of a complication-free surgery, you base your assumption on probability, logistics, and common sense. That is how you can come to the general and educated idea of whether a game has a good chance of succeeding.
I don't understand the point of you constantly writing axioms, principles, and general statements.
Fact, upon the success of SpatialOS SBS, will endure lower development costs. Which was the point I was trying to make.
Fact, if CoE acquires another 30 mil they will expedite their time line.... hopefully?
Even if SpatialOS does work out for them, what will they save? 100k? 300k? 50k?
What point are you trying to make?
For myself, I have never once regretted my decision to back CoE based on the information that I researched. I am excited to be a part of what might be groundbreaking for a whole new genre of games.
Generally, in an argument, personal anecdotes don't hold much weight
My question to you would be why do you make it seem like your agenda is to ensure failure by only posting publicly anything negative you can find in an attempt to turn people away from the game?
Key word "seem". As in your personal belief, as in non-fact.
The reason for posting these links (Sorry I hit enter too soon and by accident. ) is to show that the fault of latency could depend on a couple of factors.
A ) It could be the fault of the game developers. B ) Or it is possibly the fault of SpatialOS
But considering both are still in Beta it is not proof that SpatialOS is not going to be successful. Clearly, it is a bug that SpatialOS is aware of, and are working on rectifying.
Yes, I agree the platform isn't completely bug-free thus is unproven to a degree. However, it is the groundbreaking tech with a substantial amount of backing. Like anything else, it is going to take some time to work out the bugs.
Will it be successful? We don't know at this point. Will CoE be successful? We really don't know that either at this point.
To say CoE is going to -fail- is only an assumption. To say CoE is going to be -successful- also an assumption.
Both are based on different perspectives on the facts.
But in all honesty is there a game out there that can guarantee success when in production?
Fact, upon the success of SpatialOS SBS, will endure lower development costs. Which was the point I was trying to make.
Another Fact is that no matter what game is crowdfunded there is always a risk.
For myself, I have never once regretted my decision to back CoE based on the information that I researched. I am excited to be a part of what might be groundbreaking for a whole new genre of games.
Will it be the same for everyone? Of course not.
My question to you would be why do you make it seem like your agenda is to ensure failure by only posting publicly anything negative you can find in an attempt to turn people away from the game?
I think you are getting your facts mixed up with your hopes.
My question to you would be why do you make it seem like your agenda is to ensure failure by only posting publicly anything negative you can find in an attempt to turn people away from the game?
What a stupid sentiment. Negativity won't ensure failure, tons of people are negative about WoW day in and day out, always have been and always will be. If a game is good, people will show up and haters will eat their words. We don't know what CoE will end up as, but all signs point to shitshow so far. It's up to them to prove naysayers wrong, not whine about it.
My question to you would be why do you make it seem like your agenda is to ensure failure by only posting publicly anything negative you can find in an attempt to turn people away from the game?
What a stupid sentiment. Negativity won't ensure failure, tons of people are negative about WoW day in and day out, always have been and always will be. If a game is good, people will show up and haters will eat their words. We don't know what CoE will end up as, but all signs point to shitshow so far. It's up to them to prove naysayers wrong, not whine about it.
My negative responses have been in relation to backing and financing, not the game itself, and my posts have been more of a cautionary warning of paying into something like this before release and buying an actual product which is completely different thing.
With present management and non core game predictions and general management chit chat, I would not back this game with someone else's money let alone mine, but I WOULD buy the game like a shot if it releases near to what is touted.
Touted, that word is also the bane of anyone trying to invest in a future product.
This opinion of mine has been gleaned from LISTENING to more than one source of information, including other sites and their own management releases/podcasts.
It is still an opinion but one I have reached through forums etc etc and last time I checked that is what forums are about to talk, to share opinions and reach a consensus, to scream negativity is a last stand defence in a debate, bit like screaming "False News", its a deflection of debate.
If a forum has become overly negative about a subject then go to 3 other forums on same subject isolate the obvious cross forum trolls and listening to underlining consensus, its actually quite accurate at picking out flaws and countering over hype which is also just as harmful to a product.
COMMENTS NOT IN RESPONSE TO RUSQUE.....BUT TO MYSTICHAZE.
Just a note updating figures given earlier by @mystichaze (150,000) and @Dleatherus (46,000) as pledged accounts. Dleatherus has looked for clarification from the Inner Sanctum but the figure is closer to 20,000 at this time. Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back). We shall see what is stated.
But folks this is a perfect example of the danger of the Ivory Tower. One was off by roughly 650% and the other (though well meaning) by 100-150%. Thats a massive over estimation of community size.
So now put that into context of a publisher. IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization? If we use Dleatherus’s estimate of 90% buying the lowest 3 tiers(with equal distribution) it means that roughly just 2000 people have accounted for 61% of the revenue so far and that your monetization scheme means those people will be locked out of major purchases after release (along with all new players).
It would be interesting to see the actual numbers as obviously the above is just back of the napkin (or phone) math but even if it’s off significantly I think it helps explain the hesitance of Publishers to invest.
Yeah the spin will be “we won’t compromise the Vision” but in reality I don’t think any Publisher was even interested. So again, to makeup the gap in funding it will fall on the players to keep putting more cash in and as a result buying more and more in game advantage. Hopefully Caspiens New Year update will speak to a new budget and concrete steps to get there that avoid squeezing the same core of players for more cash.
PS: Just for the record here was my estimate many pages back on the number of pledges. Amazing the Harbinger was far closer to reality than the Ivory Tower...
IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization?
Let's be honest: Who really believes that Caspian will close the cash shop?
IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization?
Let's be honest: Who really believes that Caspian will close the cash shop?
I remember quite a few white knights arguing vehemently that he'd keep his word and that we're all jerks for not trusting him there.
Really, Caspien and his followers honestly believing that he'll close the cash shop after launch is almost as outlandish as them believing the game could be made with only $4 million and within their proposed scheduled timeline. Almost.
IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization?
Let's be honest: Who really believes that Caspian will close the cash shop?
I am of the belief that the Cash Shop will be closed down before the launch. (Along with the entire project)
well, the numbers can be interpreted in a number of ways and even opposing views from the same "new" information
to me it shows that the community in terms of size and interest in the game has grown significantly in the last 3-4 months
the lower number of pledges can also be seen as positive in that it now means that there are 180,000 registered users (again, some might be alts etc) that haven't pledged |
many won't and prefer to wait to see if the game releases
if they each were to buy a copy of the game with a spark @ $45, then you're talking about $8.1 million
now of course many of these particular 180,000 will lose interest, are alts etc - however the pace of growth of interest in the game as shown by the solid increase in numbers is a definate positive
IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization?
Let's be honest: Who really believes that Caspian will close the cash shop?
I am of the belief that the Cash Shop will be closed down before the launch. (Along with the entire project)
I doubt that was the intent in the question but an all possible outcome.
Just a note updating figures given earlier by @mystichaze (150,000) and @Dleatherus (46,000) as pledged accounts. Dleatherus has looked for clarification from the Inner Sanctum but the figure is closer to 20,000 at this time. Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back). We shall see what is stated.
But folks this is a perfect example of the danger of the Ivory Tower. One was off by roughly 650% and the other (though well meaning) by 100-150%. Thats a massive over estimation of community size.
ok - so two responses to this
#1 when you yourself are off on the numbers or make a mistake and I corrected you, you admitted your error, expect it it to be accepted as an error, and move on - nobody jumped on you and said 'see! this is why you can't trust his opinion - he makes mistakes and provides false and misleading information'
when somebody that supports the game makes an error, you point out how this is indicative of the problem of people in the "ivory tower"
i had to laugh when you stated "Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back)." - i think he will be writing the year end summary with the audience of the 200,000 registered users in mind, and not to counter an individual on a forum that looks at him and the project negatively
#2 as for your opinion of SBS not being approached by a studio - you're now moving into wild speculation area
it was clearly and openly stated in the end of year summary a year ago that it had already been happening during 2016:
he clearly states that he knows that the scope and differences of Chronicles of Elyria will make finding an investor/publisher more of a challenge- in fact the words he used back then were "extremely difficult"
to me this is completely counter to the tone being stated in this and several other threads that he is surprised that nobody has invested, or that he is whining etc, or that he wasn't aware of how much funding he would need for this stage of the project
on the contrary the point is made that there are enough funds and in no rush to make deals
Edit: link to the entire thread from which the above image was taken:
p,s. - what is a massive over estimation of community size - the 200,000?
in the same manner that you ask for links to be provided to support numbers that counter your comments, please provide a link to support your own speculations that counter the numbers provided - thank you
Just a note updating figures given earlier by @mystichaze (150,000) and @Dleatherus (46,000) as pledged accounts. Dleatherus has looked for clarification from the Inner Sanctum but the figure is closer to 20,000 at this time. Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back). We shall see what is stated.
But folks this is a perfect example of the danger of the Ivory Tower. One was off by roughly 650% and the other (though well meaning) by 100-150%. Thats a massive over estimation of community size.
ok - so two responses to this
#1 when you yourself are off on the numbers or make a mistake and I corrected you, you admitted your error, expect it it to be accepted as an error, and move on - nobody jumped on you and said 'see! this is why you can't trust his opinion - he makes mistakes and provides false and misleading information'
when somebody that supports the game makes an error, you point out how this is indicative of the problem of people in the "ivory tower"
i had to laugh when you stated "Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back)." - i think he will be writing the year end summary with the audience of the 200,000 registered users in mind, and not to counter an individual on a forum that looks at him and the project negatively
#2 as for your opinion of SBS not being approached by a studio - you're now moving into wild speculation area
it was clearly and openly stated in the end of year summary a year ago that it had already been happening during 2016:
he clearly states that he knows that the scope and differences of Chronicles of Elyria will make finding an investor/publisher more of a challenge- in fact the words he used back then were "extremely difficult"
to me this is completely counter to the tone being stated in this and several other threads that he is surprised that nobody has invested, or that he is whining etc, or that he wasn't aware of how much funding he would need for this stage of the project
on the contrary the point is made that there are enough funds and in no rush to make deals
Edit: link to the entire thread from which the above image was taken:
p,s. - what is a massive over estimation of community size - the 200,000?
in the same manner that you ask for links to be provided to support numbers that counter your comments, please provide a link to support your own speculations that counter the numbers provided - thank you
Well here is a recently linked "fact" on the number of registered Discord users, just hit 5000 a few weeks ago.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Just a note updating figures given earlier by @mystichaze (150,000) and @Dleatherus (46,000) as pledged accounts. Dleatherus has looked for clarification from the Inner Sanctum but the figure is closer to 20,000 at this time. Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back). We shall see what is stated.
But folks this is a perfect example of the danger of the Ivory Tower. One was off by roughly 650% and the other (though well meaning) by 100-150%. Thats a massive over estimation of community size.
ok - so two responses to this
#1 when you yourself are off on the numbers or make a mistake and I corrected you, you admitted your error, expect it it to be accepted as an error, and move on - nobody jumped on you and said 'see! this is why you can't trust his opinion - he makes mistakes and provides false and misleading information'
when somebody that supports the game makes an error, you point out how this is indicative of the problem of people in the "ivory tower"
i had to laugh when you stated "Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back)." - i think he will be writing the year end summary with the audience of the 200,000 registered users in mind, and not to counter an individual on a forum that looks at him and the project negatively
#2 as for your opinion of SBS not being approached by a studio - you're now moving into wild speculation area
it was clearly and openly stated in the end of year summary a year ago that it had already been happening during 2016:
he clearly states that he knows that the scope and differences of Chronicles of Elyria will make finding an investor/publisher more of a challenge- in fact the words he used back then were "extremely difficult"
to me this is completely counter to the tone being stated in this and several other threads that he is surprised that nobody has invested, or that he is whining etc, or that he wasn't aware of how much funding he would need for this stage of the project
on the contrary the point is made that there are enough funds and in no rush to make deals
Edit: link to the entire thread from which the above image was taken:
p,s. - what is a massive over estimation of community size - the 200,000?
in the same manner that you ask for links to be provided to support numbers that counter your comments, please provide a link to support your own speculations that counter the numbers provided - thank you
Well here is a recently linked "fact" on the number of registered Discord users, just hit 5000 a few weeks ago.
On my phone so no I’m not doing research but what I posted uses your as the source My point is that if you think there are already150000 folks that bought the game... when Caspien says hundreds of thousands on each server you don’t think it’s a far stretch. When is less than a 6th of that it’s a massive difference.
Also look at the last line of the post you quoted. Complete development in 2017? LOL WTH ?
And if yourgoing to say it’s an old post. You’re right! That’s why his more recent statements and the link provided earlier are more valid. Since that post Caspien himself stated they wer actively looking since April.
Also... forum accounts are an utterly useless measurement. Research Mortal Online if you don’t believe me. They Also had 6 figure forum members. Today they are developing a Kitten game...because the population in game never materialized.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
On my phone so no I’m not doing research but what I posted uses your as the source My point is that if you think there are already150000 folks that bought the game... when Caspien says hundreds of thousands on each server you don’t think it’s a far stretch. When is less than a 6th of that it’s a massive difference.
Also look at the last line of the post you quoted. Complete development in 2017? LOL WTH ?
And if yourgoing to say it’s an old post. You’re right! That’s why his more recent statements and the link provided earlier are more valid. Since that post Caspien himself stated they wer actively looking since April.
Also... forum accounts are an utterly useless measurement. Research Mortal Online if you don’t believe me. They Also had 6 figure forum members. Today they are developing a Kitten game...because the population in game never materialized.
np of being on the fone - it's a bear to use on forums
i NEVER stated that 150,000 have bought the game - the only time i personally have used 150,000 as a number is in reference to how many registered users there are on the website
and yes - i included ALL of that statement knowing you would get a laugh out of the last line, because i'm not trying to selectively provide information
whereas i might be in the minority on this particular fact amongst those who pledged, i never expected the game to be released in dec 2017 - for me that was an unrealistic time from the get go
when i pledged my money i was guesstimating sometime between the end of 2018/mid 2019 at the earliest
i definitely think that more recent posts supercede old ones in terms of information
i showed that post to show that caspian stated that as early as 2016 publishers and investors were approaching the studio
you speculate/doubt that any publisher/investor has approached the studio - i am providing statements and links that show the contrary to be the case
no need to research mortal online - I could also list a host of other games that had x number of published forum/website numbers - many games never reach their full potential, other crash and burn, or never even get released
it's pointless me listing ones that succeeded because each is basically a case by case basis, particularly when a game takes a turn from the path of generic games and how they are funded/developed
it's a risky venture, not for the faint of heart, and will have many detractors standing in the safety of the sidelines and critiquing/ridiculing the choice to try and beat a new path through a dangerous jungle
I think a publisher can see the appeal of the game just fine. The ability of the dev team to actually deliver what is promised is another story entirely.
AN' DERE AIN'T NO SUCH FING AS ENUFF DAKKA, YA GROT! Enuff'z more than ya got an' less than too much an' there ain't no such fing as too much dakka. Say dere is, and me Squiggoff'z eatin' tonight!
We are born of the blood. Made men by the blood. Undone by the blood. Our eyes are yet to open. FEAR THE OLD BLOOD.
Seems a bit light for 200K users, especially since Caspian has long used Discord as a primary communication method.
can only speak to the numbers of our own discord to answer this
our own kingdom discord has 717 members:
and that number doesn't even come close to representing the overall number of members of gaming communities that are interested in joining us once game launches - most have us on the radar and are busy playing other games to see if/when Chronicles of Elyria becomes a reality
i suspect the disparity in the figures can be accounted for by stating that many people have joined the website and are curious about the game and how it will develop, and have it bookmarked to check back in on from time to time - typical in prelaunch mmo's
only a relatively small minority will get so actively engaged this far out
what i can tell you is that it can be a very active bunch at times - yesterday in one of the channels i was keeping an eye on, i didn't pay attention to it for an hour or so - and when i brought that window up agaiun, over 540 new messages had been typed - no way do i have the time to go back and read through them lol
@Dleatherus How can you be fine with them lying about the release date? By you not trusting their release date from the start, you're basically saying you know they're going to be liars, but that's fine...
And I can understand being off on a release date by six months or so. But by 2 years or more, come on. It wasn't even until Oct of this year (2 months before the original Exposition launch), that the devs came forward with the new timeline. Up until then, they were offended by anyone who questioned their schedule.
If we can't trust them to tell the truth about the release date, who's to say they're going to tell the truth with other things? Especially when you're asking people to pre-order into a future product (that you have no history of creating), you're only as good as your word.
@Dleatherus How can you be fine with them lying about the release date? By you not trusting their release date from the start, you're basically saying you know they're going to be liars, but that's fine...
And I can understand being off on a release date by six months or so. But by 2 years or more, come on. It wasn't even until Oct of this year (2 months before the original Exposition launch), that the devs came forward with the new timeline. I
With people calling them liars, deceitful and everything else for not hitting their EOY 2017 date, I wonder what it was that took them so long to release a new time line... @_@
@Dleatherus How can you be fine with them lying about the release date? By you not trusting their release date from the start, you're basically saying you know they're going to be liars, but that's fine...
And I can understand being off on a release date by six months or so. But by 2 years or more, come on. It wasn't even until Oct of this year (2 months before the original Exposition launch), that the devs came forward with the new timeline. Up until then, they were offended by anyone who questioned their schedule.
If we can't trust them to tell the truth about the release date, who's to say they're going to tell the truth with other things? Especially when you're asking people to pre-order into a future product (that you have no history of creating), you're only as good as your word.
i'm naturally skeptical of timelines of any studio, whether that is a game in development, or one already in existence for many years talking about adding new content
they all seem to give an earliest possible if everything lines up perfectly scenario
reality is that it rarely if ever lines up that way
heck even the Grand Poobah of them all, WoW, was so notorious for miserably failing on the release dates of new content, they stopped giving exact dates that far out, and helped coin the phrase:
Soon(tm)
personally i'd rather see them as a whole give best and worst case scenario timelines -- but even then, if they miss the worst case scenarios deadline it can have a disastrous PR fallout effect
Comments
The public has a right to know about the bad aspects of this project.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Sep 2014 WA gets underway.
Summer 2015 Partnership with Spatial IOS announced, devs claims it will enable them to launch within a year.
May 2017, WA launch date as still displaying on Steam.
Jan 2018 WA still not launched, continuing concerns over disconnects and crashes, root cause TBC.
The longer development extends, the more it costs overall. If you are Chris Roberts you sell a few more ships, tanks or land plots to the faithful legions and carry onwards.
This team is basically doing the same, without outside investment they appear to be going with plan B, let the backers fund development.
Let's hope they have deep pockets.....because significant cost overruns are in the forecast.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
No, just like there's no 100% chance of a complication-free surgery, you base your assumption on probability, logistics, and common sense. That is how you can come to the general and educated idea of whether a game has a good chance of succeeding.
I don't understand the point of you constantly writing axioms, principles, and general statements.
Fact, upon the success of SpatialOS SBS, will endure lower development costs. Which was the point I was trying to make.
Fact, if CoE acquires another 30 mil they will expedite their time line.... hopefully?
Even if SpatialOS does work out for them, what will they save? 100k? 300k? 50k?
What point are you trying to make?
Generally, in an argument, personal anecdotes don't hold much weight
Key word "seem". As in your personal belief, as in non-fact.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
My negative responses have been in relation to backing and financing, not the game itself, and my posts have been more of a cautionary warning of paying into something like this before release and buying an actual product which is completely different thing.
With present management and non core game predictions and general management chit chat, I would not back this game with someone else's money let alone mine, but I WOULD buy the game like a shot if it releases near to what is touted.
Touted, that word is also the bane of anyone trying to invest in a future product.
This opinion of mine has been gleaned from LISTENING to more than one source of information, including other sites and their own management releases/podcasts.
It is still an opinion but one I have reached through forums etc etc and last time I checked that is what forums are about to talk, to share opinions and reach a consensus, to scream negativity is a last stand defence in a debate, bit like screaming "False News", its a deflection of debate.
If a forum has become overly negative about a subject then go to 3 other forums on same subject isolate the obvious cross forum trolls and listening to underlining consensus, its actually quite accurate at picking out flaws and countering over hype which is also just as harmful to a product.
COMMENTS NOT IN RESPONSE TO RUSQUE.....BUT TO MYSTICHAZE.
But folks this is a perfect example of the danger of the Ivory Tower. One was off by roughly 650% and the other (though well meaning) by 100-150%. Thats a massive over estimation of community size.
So now put that into context of a publisher. IMHO they look at a pitch where 20,000 people have already spent 3.5M pre-purchasing advantages and cash shop currency. That shop is slated to close at launch. If you are a publisher do you think that’s wise monetization? If we use Dleatherus’s estimate of 90% buying the lowest 3 tiers(with equal distribution) it means that roughly just 2000 people have accounted for 61% of the revenue so far and that your monetization scheme means those people will be locked out of major purchases after release (along with all new players).
It would be interesting to see the actual numbers as obviously the above is just back of the napkin (or phone) math but even if it’s off significantly I think it helps explain the hesitance of Publishers to invest.
Yeah the spin will be “we won’t compromise the Vision” but in reality I don’t think any Publisher was even interested. So again, to makeup the gap in funding it will fall on the players to keep putting more cash in and as a result buying more and more in game advantage. Hopefully Caspiens New Year update will speak to a new budget and concrete steps to get there that avoid squeezing the same core of players for more cash.
PS: Just for the record here was my estimate many pages back on the number of pledges. Amazing the Harbinger was far closer to reality than the Ivory Tower...
“We all know that the above is not possible. I would say they would be lucky to have 25,000 to 30,000 total which would be around $115 total average pledge. I'd wager it's even lower.”
Read more at http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/470498/developer-seems-frustrated-that-publishers-dont-understand-coes-appeal/p5#hvAlPvZl6LLDEdsX.99
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
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Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
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"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Who really believes that Caspian will close the cash shop?
Really, Caspien and his followers honestly believing that he'll close the cash shop after launch is almost as outlandish as them believing the game could be made with only $4 million and within their proposed scheduled timeline. Almost.
to me it shows that the community in terms of size and interest in the game has grown significantly in the last 3-4 months
the lower number of pledges can also be seen as positive in that it now means that there are 180,000 registered users (again, some might be alts etc) that haven't pledged |
many won't and prefer to wait to see if the game releases
if they each were to buy a copy of the game with a spark @ $45, then you're talking about $8.1 million
now of course many of these particular 180,000 will lose interest, are alts etc - however the pace of growth of interest in the game as shown by the solid increase in numbers is a definate positive
#1 when you yourself are off on the numbers or make a mistake and I corrected you, you admitted your error, expect it it to be accepted as an error, and move on - nobody jumped on you and said 'see! this is why you can't trust his opinion - he makes mistakes and provides false and misleading information'
when somebody that supports the game makes an error, you point out how this is indicative of the problem of people in the "ivory tower"
i had to laugh when you stated "Seems like Caspien is going to respond in a new year update soon and use it to try and counter this thread (without the need of being questioned back)." - i think he will be writing the year end summary with the audience of the 200,000 registered users in mind, and not to counter an individual on a forum that looks at him and the project negatively
#2 as for your opinion of SBS not being approached by a studio - you're now moving into wild speculation area
it was clearly and openly stated in the end of year summary a year ago that it had already been happening during 2016:
he clearly states that he knows that the scope and differences of Chronicles of Elyria will make finding an investor/publisher more of a challenge- in fact the words he used back then were "extremely difficult"
to me this is completely counter to the tone being stated in this and several other threads that he is surprised that nobody has invested, or that he is whining etc, or that he wasn't aware of how much funding he would need for this stage of the project
on the contrary the point is made that there are enough funds and in no rush to make deals
Edit: link to the entire thread from which the above image was taken:
https://chroniclesofelyria.com/forum/topic/15552/looking-back-charging-forward
p,s. - what is a massive over estimation of community size - the 200,000?
in the same manner that you ask for links to be provided to support numbers that counter your comments, please provide a link to support your own speculations that counter the numbers provided - thank you
https://chroniclesofelyria.com/forum/topic/23090/welcome-our-5000th-discord-member#post257211
Seems a bit light for 200K users, especially since Caspian has long used Discord as a primary communication method.
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Wonder if I'm alone..
Also look at the last line of the post you quoted. Complete development in 2017? LOL WTH ?
And if yourgoing to say it’s an old post. You’re right! That’s why his more recent statements and the link provided earlier are more valid. Since that post Caspien himself stated they wer actively looking since April.
Also... forum accounts are an utterly useless measurement. Research Mortal Online if you don’t believe me. They Also had 6 figure forum members. Today they are developing a Kitten game...because the population in game never materialized.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
i NEVER stated that 150,000 have bought the game - the only time i personally have used 150,000 as a number is in reference to how many registered users there are on the website
and yes - i included ALL of that statement knowing you would get a laugh out of the last line, because i'm not trying to selectively provide information
whereas i might be in the minority on this particular fact amongst those who pledged, i never expected the game to be released in dec 2017 - for me that was an unrealistic time from the get go
when i pledged my money i was guesstimating sometime between the end of 2018/mid 2019 at the earliest
i definitely think that more recent posts supercede old ones in terms of information
i showed that post to show that caspian stated that as early as 2016 publishers and investors were approaching the studio
you speculate/doubt that any publisher/investor has approached the studio - i am providing statements and links that show the contrary to be the case
no need to research mortal online - I could also list a host of other games that had x number of published forum/website numbers - many games never reach their full potential, other crash and burn, or never even get released
it's pointless me listing ones that succeeded because each is basically a case by case basis, particularly when a game takes a turn from the path of generic games and how they are funded/developed
it's a risky venture, not for the faint of heart, and will have many detractors standing in the safety of the sidelines and critiquing/ridiculing the choice to try and beat a new path through a dangerous jungle
that's to be expected
those forging the path are aware of the risks
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our own kingdom discord has 717 members:
and that number doesn't even come close to representing the overall number of members of gaming communities that are interested in joining us once game launches - most have us on the radar and are busy playing other games to see if/when Chronicles of Elyria becomes a reality
i suspect the disparity in the figures can be accounted for by stating that many people have joined the website and are curious about the game and how it will develop, and have it bookmarked to check back in on from time to time - typical in prelaunch mmo's
only a relatively small minority will get so actively engaged this far out
what i can tell you is that it can be a very active bunch at times - yesterday in one of the channels i was keeping an eye on, i didn't pay attention to it for an hour or so - and when i brought that window up agaiun, over 540 new messages had been typed - no way do i have the time to go back and read through them lol
And I can understand being off on a release date by six months or so. But by 2 years or more, come on. It wasn't even until Oct of this year (2 months before the original Exposition launch), that the devs came forward with the new timeline. Up until then, they were offended by anyone who questioned their schedule.
If we can't trust them to tell the truth about the release date, who's to say they're going to tell the truth with other things? Especially when you're asking people to pre-order into a future product (that you have no history of creating), you're only as good as your word.
they all seem to give an earliest possible if everything lines up perfectly scenario
reality is that it rarely if ever lines up that way
heck even the Grand Poobah of them all, WoW, was so notorious for miserably failing on the release dates of new content, they stopped giving exact dates that far out, and helped coin the phrase:
Soon(tm)
personally i'd rather see them as a whole give best and worst case scenario timelines -- but even then, if they miss the worst case scenarios deadline it can have a disastrous PR fallout effect