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Why Derek Smart is right about Star Citizen - His facts and why SC is likely to fail

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  • ElsaboltsElsabolts Member RarePosts: 3,417
    Looks to me funding just might start to dry up and who will be left holding the bag, my guess is if things go south CIG and the Roberts will not be the ones?
    " Life Liberty and the Pursuit of Those Who  Would Threaten It "
                                            MAGA
  • CazrielCazriel Member UncommonPosts: 392
    Yawn.  DS, again?  This loan, again?  The well must be dry if we are rehashing this tripe. 
    MaxBaconErillionNyctelios
  • GarickGarick Member UncommonPosts: 88
    I really do not understand this need to try to bully, control, doom and gloom others into spending or not spending their money based on your own feelings and opinions on a product. Add to that they bring out new info, show progress and display pretty much every week that they are churning toward a better more advanced product.

    If a person's only desire was to simply screw people out of their money with no intention of making it happen then why would they go through the trouble of even putting together several offices to work on this fake project? Why spend this money you plan to steal and go through the trouble of such an extreme elaborate false effort when you could simply have kept the team small, showed off pretty ship pictures to sell and then just kept all that money?  Seems a bit of an effort to me for a rip off.

    I do understand though, some people want to try to help people not to waste money by warning them of what "might be.". Others simply want that grand feeling of being able to tell people what to do.. I know I could never spend 45k on a game, I don't have it to offer but I know many people work hard and do make far more than that so if they earn that money and wish to blow it on a ship they can enjoy in a hobby.. why not? they earned that money and the right to spend it however they wish.

    Now if your intentions were pure, you could simply provide an update-able wiki page. Explaining the process and routes in which to obtain a refund. Expected responses, history of refunds that went through and that may have been rejected and why so that people know if their chance is real or not if they choose to seek a refund. 

    If you wanna scare people into your way of thinking, stop being an online poster and start being a preacher.  
    NonderyonExcessionMrMelGibson
  • Azaron_NightbladeAzaron_Nightblade Member EpicPosts: 4,602
    I think Scav's having some fun with ya'll SC diehards. ;)
    rpmcmurphyExcession

    My SWTOR referral link for those wanting to give the game a try. (Newbies get a welcome package while returning players get a few account upgrades to help with their preferred status.)

    https://www.ashesofcreation.com/ref/Callaron/

  • GarickGarick Member UncommonPosts: 88
    edited September 2017
    This was the last ATV. This is the point where they take the scope of the project, put reins on trying to do the entire thing at once and begin to hammer out each part so that it can go to their selective player base for testing. I think the issue WAS that they had a bowl of things to do and everyone sort of had their hands into everything and it was going wonky because of that, this however seems to be the right choice that will make things come out much faster.



    ExcessionGdemami
  • rpmcmurphyrpmcmurphy Member EpicPosts: 3,161
    Garick said:
    ... so if they earn that money and wish to blow it on a ship they can enjoy in a hobby.. why not? they earned that money and the right to spend it however they wish.


    Just because they can doesn't mean we should all just accept it's ok to do so, there's a few reasons why everyone laughs at people standing idiotic amounts of money on game assets.

    1. It's an idiotic amount of money to spend on a game asset.
    2. It creates a huge imbalance at the most important part of the game.
    3. Lots of the people who spend idiotic amounts of money on game assets bang on about evil publishers, dlc and microtransactions from one side of their mouth while drooling over $400 jpegs from the other side.
    4. It's about buying power under the guise of "crowdfunding".
    5. People hate wallet warriors/whales, it's hardly exclusive to Star Citizen and they are largely seen as a pox on gaming.

    Gdemami
  • MaxBaconMaxBacon Member EpicPosts: 6,710
    edited September 2017
    Cazriel said:
    Yawn.  DS, again?  This loan, again?  The well must be dry if we are rehashing this tripe. 
    Yup this is an exact rehashing of the same thing all over again. Gets to the point it's easier to go the other thread and copy/paste the posts than bothering to write them again. lol

    rpmcmurphy said:
    Just because they can doesn't mean we should all just accept it's ok to do so, there's a few reasons why everyone laughs at people standing idiotic amounts of money on game assets.
    Here's the point you missed:
    > It's thanks to them the funding sustains the dev process (and admittedly so) of the game that YOU want to play.

    Hate them, judge them, but without them, we wouldn't be here. :)
    Excession
  • GarickGarick Member UncommonPosts: 88
    Garick said:
    ... so if they earn that money and wish to blow it on a ship they can enjoy in a hobby.. why not? they earned that money and the right to spend it however they wish.


    Just because they can doesn't mean we should all just accept it's ok to do so, there's a few reasons why everyone laughs at people standing idiotic amounts of money on game assets.

    1. It's an idiotic amount of money to spend on a game asset.
    2. It creates a huge imbalance at the most important part of the game.
    3. Lots of the people who spend idiotic amounts of money on game assets bang on about evil publishers, dlc and microtransactions from one side of their mouth while drooling over $400 jpegs from the other side.
    4. It's about buying power under the guise of "crowdfunding".
    5. People hate wallet warriors/whales, it's hardly exclusive to Star Citizen and they are largely seen as a pox on gaming.



    I'll just respond with this:

    1. It's their money, they earned it they can spend their money on any game they wish or anything for that matter.

    2. It helps and has been the reason this game is as large a project as it is.

    3. People do complain, they don't need someone else to complain for them nor to direct their private spending.

    4. Buying power is in all aspects of life. If you have money it is easier to make more money. If you have no money then it is harder to make money.. pretty basic concept. People are born into money, luck into money, or work hard to have it, they don't need our help to tell them what to do with it.

    5. Basically pretty much number 4 addon. This goes the same as in life, people who have money want more money, people who have no money want money and anyone above you is seen as crazy for spending what they do on things you think are crazy to blow that money on, yet that amount may be very little to them. It is there money, let them spend it as they see fit.. its not yours nor mine to tell them what they do with what they earn even if it is earned unfairly.
    Excessionrpmcmurphy
  • VrikaVrika Member EpicPosts: 5,413
    Kefo said:
    Kefo said:
    Garick said:
    Vrika said:
    Garick said:
    Didn't these /loans/ Turn out to be simply SC taking out money to use now based on their business credit from how EU handles big buisness over there?   Its not really a loan more than it is just taking advantage of a sure thing by using money now that the government is for certain going to pay back for you at a clear precise time.
    Taking a loan against your future income is really a loan.

    CIG's official explanation is that it was just a smart money management move, but we could have a 10 page debate as to whether CIG gave their real reason in that statement, or just carefully obfuscated the situation.



    Is it a loan? Or a free asset? I mean if I told you that 100% you would get 50,000 dollars in 3 months and you took a loan out now with the agreement that in 3 months it would be fully paid back with no use of your own money what so ever. Wouldn't that just be sensible? Rather than waiting 3 months to obtain money to enhance company growth you would just make use of it now to help speed up the process because you have promises to keep and ideals to achieve.
    Are you that hard up for cash after raising over 150million dollars that you can't wait a few more months for your free money that's coming anyway or do you need to take out a loan that comes with strings?
    you do realize that money now is greater than money in the future? Depending on your current tax situation, money now could be WAY better than money later.

    Do explain
    Using the formula to determine the present value: 

    Present Value Formula


     The answer tells us that receiving $1,000 in 20 years is the equivalent of receiving $148.64 today, if the time value of money is 10% per year compounded annually.


    Even using the shitty ass prime interest rate compounded tells you the same , just not as disparate result.
    That is only true if the rate of return is greater than interest and costs of taking the loan.

    If we take CIG's statement that they've taken the loan to avoid converting USD and EUR into GBP we can calculate their current rate of return from currency fluctuations:

    15th June: 1 GBP was 1.275 USD
    17th Sep: 1 GBP is 1.359 USD

    By avoiding conversion on the date they took the loan, they've made 1 - (1.275 / 1.359) = 6.18% loss.

    Time has passed: about 3 months, so we can calculate their yearly rate or return: 1- (1-0,0618)^4 = 22.5% yearly loss, in addition to interests and costs associated with taking the loan.

    This is only an example, since in reality CIG wouldn't have converted USD to GBP on 15th of June, but thus far it looks like their move to delay converting other currencies into GBP has been poor financial move.
    ExcessionKefoTalonsin
     
  • KonfessKonfess Member RarePosts: 1,666
    edited September 2017
     Derek Smart is my idol, I was once even mistake for him on this site, because of the level of my respect for him.  But he came and proved we are un-related.  That said, he is and independent developer that has made his own MMO, something that few if any around here have accomplished.

    Twenty (20) years ago I was a Lead Engineer, now I am a step down a Senior Engineer.  I hide the fact that I am a Professional Engineer.  I have no inside knowledge or information regarding CIGC.  I know of people who work there, but I don't know anyone personally.  This is significant because I know people else where personally.  I have said this before, there is a S.T.E.M. shortage today.  Many of the people applying for S.T.E.M. positions are not truly qualified for the positions.  Game Development is a S.T.E.M. career.  Why or How someone who doesn't have a S.T.E.M. education can think they are qualified for a Game Development job baffles me.

    I have seen people, I call "Typist", apply for Game Development jobs.  That can't produce code, art, or music on their own.  I don't know, but I suspect that when the news got out about all the money "They" had to spend.  "Gold Diggers" came from far and wide to stake their claim, and strike it rich.  These people are mannequins, not Engineers.  

    This may not be the kind of mismanagement that everyone was hoping for, or expecting.  But it is a possibility.  How long could this be going on for?  I've seen it happen for years.

    Aren't people playing this game in an Early Access format?  I actually feel that the Forum Trolls, out to sabotage a potentially successful game, out of contempt or jealousy are the ones that should face legal consequences for their actions.
    ExcessionAsm0deusSedrynTyros

    Pardon any spelling errors
    Konfess your cyns and some maybe forgiven
    Boy: Why can't I talk to Him?
    Mom: We don't talk to Priests.
    As if it could exist, without being payed for.
    F2P means you get what you paid for. Pay nothing, get nothing.
    Even telemarketers wouldn't think that.
    It costs money to play.  Therefore P2W.

  • rpmcmurphyrpmcmurphy Member EpicPosts: 3,161
    Garick said:
    I'll just respond with this:

    1. It's their money, they earned it they can spend their money on any game they wish or anything for that matter.
    Doesn't make them free from criticism, mockery or whatever.

    Garick said:
    2. It helps and has been the reason this game is as large a project as it is.
    Only thing it has helped so far is for the project to lose all focus and balloon out of control. Roberts has said repeatedly that they base their work on their monthly income, what sort of idiocy is that?

    Garick said:
    3. People do complain, they don't need someone else to complain for them nor to direct their private spending.
    Missing the point, I'm referring to the hypocrisy. Why is it ok for them to complain about publishers, dlc, microtransactions etc but it's not ok for people to complain about how CIG make their funding?

    Garick said:
    4. Buying power is in all aspects of life. If you have money it is easier to make more money. If you have no money then it is harder to make money.. pretty basic concept. People are born into money, luck into money, or work hard to have it, they don't need our help to tell them what to do with it.
    Just no.

    Garick said:
    5. Basically pretty much number 4 addon. This goes the same as in life, people who have money want more money, people who have no money want money and anyone above you is seen as crazy for spending what they do on things you think are crazy to blow that money on, yet that amount may be very little to them. It is there money, let them spend it as they see fit.. its not yours nor mine to tell them what they do with what they earn even if it is earned unfairly.
    But it's ok for you to tell others what they shouldn't be talking about? Why are you trying so hard to defend/excuse wallet warriors, is it personal, like some sugar daddy paying your rent for favours or something?

    ExcessionScotchUpPingu2012
  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko Member EpicPosts: 6,843
    Garick said:
    ... so if they earn that money and wish to blow it on a ship they can enjoy in a hobby.. why not? they earned that money and the right to spend it however they wish.


    Just because they can doesn't mean we should all just accept it's ok to do so, there's a few reasons why everyone laughs at people standing idiotic amounts of money on game assets.

    ...

    Actually there's only one real reason why the one group "laughs" at the other:
    They want to show how superior they are over those other idiots... :D
  • MaxBaconMaxBacon Member EpicPosts: 6,710
    edited September 2017
    SedrynTyros said:
     Also, I find it extremely amusing when people say "see, Derek Smart was right!"  Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.  Are you really going to give this douche credit because he ends up being right about one thing he said when he was wrong about twenty other things?  Come on!  That dude is biggest tool on the interwebs.
    Yeah any of us can do what he does really and get the same result, some people buy into it.
    Excession
  • TheScavengerTheScavenger Member EpicPosts: 3,321
    edited September 2017
    Feel free to try out the game again when it launches OP.  No worries.  

    As to being hard up for cash I remember when ESO did something different, that being their first MMO and all.  They went with a company that took out a dollar to test the account even thought the money wasn't supposed to be needed until a later date for the packages they ordered.  Anyways, there were a lot of posts from people who said that unexpected one dollar withdrawal caused their account to be overdrawn and a lot of checks to bounce.  I was surprised at that but it seems some people play their budgets that tight.
    Yeah, when game launches and it looks successful, I can always pay into it again. Or if the game looks like its nearing finishing content etc I can always get back into it if its looking very positive. Just because I refunded, doesn't mean I can't ever play the game again. Kickstarting (and early access) is more for giving support, then it is getting to play a game early. 

    50 dollars may not be much, but it does get a lot of steam games (in the upcoming winter sales) that I can play NOW with a lot of content. But I'll keep positive hope that SC gets to beta stages and then release, since the game itself...the ideas behind it are amazing. But a lot of suspicion right now, so we'll see what it really ends up turning out to be.
    ExcessionOctagon7711

    My Skyrim, Fallout 4, Starbound and WoW + other game mods at MODDB: 

    https://www.moddb.com/mods/skyrim-anime-overhaul



  • FrammshammFrammshamm Member UncommonPosts: 322
    Konfess said:
     Derek Smart is my idol, I was once even mistake for him on this site, because of the level of my respect for him.  But he came and proved we are un-related.  That said, he is and independent developer that has made his own MMO, something that few if any around here have accomplished.

    Twenty (20) years ago I was a Lead Engineer, now I am a step down a Senior Engineer.  I hide the fact that I am a Professional Engineer.  I have no inside knowledge or information regarding CIGC.  I know of people who work there, but I don't know anyone personally.  This is significant because I know people else where personally.  I have said this before, there is a S.T.E.M. shortage today.  Many of the people applying for S.T.E.M. positions are not truly qualified for the positions.  Game Development is a S.T.E.M. career.  Why or How someone who doesn't have a S.T.E.M. education can think they are qualified for a Game Development job baffles me.

    I have seen people, I call "Typist", apply for Game Development jobs.  That can't produce code, art, or music on their own.  I don't know, but I suspect that when the news got out about all the money "They" had to spend.  "Gold Diggers" came from far and wide to stake their claim, and strike it rich.  These people are mannequins, not Engineers.  

    This may not be the kind of mismanagement that everyone was hoping for, or expecting.  But it is a possibility.  How long could this be going on for?  I've seen it happen for years.

    Aren't people playing this game in an Early Access format?  I actually feel that the Forum Trolls, out to sabotage a potentially successful game, out of contempt or jealousy are the ones that should face legal consequences for their actions.
    Can anyone understand this gibberish?

    SedrynTyrosMrMelGibsonpantaro
  • MrMelGibsonMrMelGibson Member EpicPosts: 2,995
    I'm cautiously waiting for SC.  Not a huge fan, but definitely not a hater either.  Being in the middle I can safely say Derek Smart is a clown and who gives a flying fuck what he thinks/says lol.
    SedrynTyrosNyctelios
  • MrMelGibsonMrMelGibson Member EpicPosts: 2,995
    MaxBacon said:
    also to add. The people in that thread convinced me how SC has a lot of suspicion toward it and how it deserves its hate, because partly how badly mismanaged the game is. I DID try defending it because I didn't want my 50 dollars to be a waste, but they gave me a lot of information (plus the stuff I looked up) that caused me to lose faith in the game.
    I'm calling BS on this, you just said you tried to refund the game months ago and supposedly got refused now you are here claiming you got a "heart change" in a matter of minutes?!?!
    Yes, I tried refunding a few months ago not because I didn't like the game (at the time, now I have severe doubts with the game), but because rent was due and I needed 50 dollars. I was 47 dollars short of paying rent. For me, 50 dollars is a LOT of money (I'm on severe limited income, barely minimum wage), but I still wanted to support SC. I planned to put the 50 dollars back, but I got denied anyway and had to ask friends for money which was kinda pathetic. 

    That is actually the legit truth of it, I wanted a refund because I'm dirt poor and 50 dollars is a lot of money for me. The 2nd time just this morning, I skipped dealing with the company and went to the bank. 
    No offense, but if you're "dirt poor" as you claim.  Maybe you shouldn't put money into kickstarters.  And if you do, maybe accept the consequences of that donation.
  • PhaserlightPhaserlight Member EpicPosts: 2,784
    On June 24th, Derek Smart posted...

    "THE STAR CITIZEN PROJECT IS IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE After raising over $150 million in crowd-funding, plus unknown investor amounts and bank loans, on June 13th, 2017, CIG/RSI took out a high-risk loan secured by all the assets backers had poured money into..."

    and

    "As I have reported in the past, for some time now sources have informed me that the project was in financial dire straits."

    So his inside sources would know far more than fans or people watching the game, and know even more than the haters themselves. It is true, and signs point to mass money loss and vast management issues.

    Not only that, but Chris Roberts is well known for mismanagement and wasting money, sort of like the guy behind Black and White god game series and Fable. So it should be no surprise about this.

    On top of that, they keep adding shit to the game that isn't needed...why in the hell waste time literally adding shit? Like literal shit they added. That is the biggest waste of resources ever, and I do NOT want to play a game where I have to worry about going to the bathroom and also at the same time have to use the bathroom in real life. This is a great example of resources and feature creep taking over the game, and wasting so much money on NEW features and not enough on existing projects.

    On top of that, while that large refund WAS a scam and lie, the game is still being refunded at a large rate according to Derek Smart and they took advantage of the lie, but do not tell the truth of how many are refunding the game. Even if the company refuses a refund, you can call a bank and get them to do a charge back...easy as that.

    But the biggest worry and sign of a game being mismanaged, as seen in many games of mismanaged projects (like remember Kingdoms of Amalur?), is just so many unneeded features being added.

    On top of that, taking out loans is NOT a good sign after making so much money from crowdfunding. What happened to all that crowd funded money that required to take out a loan?

    Just this morning I did a charge back on Star Citizen (called my bank), only put in 50 dollars, but I can't support a company that is so badly mismanaged. And I don't want to play Sims in space, MMO edition where I have to worry about stupid bathrooms...no thanks lol

    What are your guys thoughts on all this and what Derek Smart has said and discovered about the game?
    To paraphrase Cory Doctorow (and many philosophers): don't forget your most precious commodity, time.

    "The simple is the seal of the true and beauty is the splendor of truth" -Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar
    Authored 139 missions in Vendetta Online

  • EldrachEldrach Member UncommonPosts: 117
    1. Star Citizen will release it's 3.0 format pretty soon, this will boost funding.
    2. If, chris roberts lacks funding..there would be a huge line of big publishers interested in taking over the project
    3. If anyone pours thousands of dollars into a game development project they actually can't afford to loose, they only have themselves to blame.
    Excession
  • IceAgeIceAge Member RarePosts: 2,073
    I don't care about Derek or what he's saying. 

    All I care is what I see and as far as I can tell , SC will be a failure no matter how hard they try.

    A game with so many missed death lines, has his place in the "hall of shame" games. 

    Reporter: What's behind Blizzard success, and how do you make your gamers happy?
    Blizzard Boss: Making gamers happy is not my concern, making money.. yes!

  • KefoKefo Member EpicPosts: 3,785
    Eldrach said:
    2. If, chris roberts lacks funding..there would be a huge line of big publishers interested in taking over the project

    What publisher in their right mind would take over this project after CR himself whipped his fan base into a frenzy over how evil publishers are?

    Even if a publisher overlooked CR's comments about how terrible they are they would run for the hills once they see the community. You can't voice constructive criticism without getting shouted down about it so what do you think the toxic community is going to do when a publisher starts cutting unrealistic features?


    ExcessionMaxBaconMrMelGibson
  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko Member EpicPosts: 6,843
    When DS first hitched his wagon to the SC juggernaut, he claimed to have "inside information" that he would be revealing by way of a full-page ad in the New York Times. We're still waiting...
    http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/comment/6699868/#Comment_6699868

    Sometime later he announced that he was filing a lawsuit against CIG, and the law firm he engaged sent a letter of ultimatum to CIG. Then nothing happened...
    http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/438619/smart-enlists-legal-team-threatens-class-action-lawsuit-star-citizen-mmorpg-com/p1

    DS has been telling us for two and a half years that SC will be running out of money in three months...

    DS is just full of BS !
    gervaise1MaxBaconMrMelGibson
  • EldrachEldrach Member UncommonPosts: 117
    edited September 2017
    Kefo said:
    Eldrach said:
    2. If, chris roberts lacks funding..there would be a huge line of big publishers interested in taking over the project

    What publisher in their right mind would take over this project after CR himself whipped his fan base into a frenzy over how evil publishers are?

    Even if a publisher overlooked CR's comments about how terrible they are they would run for the hills once they see the community. You can't voice constructive criticism without getting shouted down about it so what do you think the toxic community is going to do when a publisher starts cutting unrealistic features?


    Easy, any publisher. Say he caves after spending 180 million dollars, a publisher then buys him out for 20 million - And gains 5 years of development for almost nothing. They're not liable for anything as the community doesn't actually own anything but promises from a then defunct company. The game would then go on for a year + of development before release and more than make up for the investment.
  • KefoKefo Member EpicPosts: 3,785
    Eldrach said:
    Kefo said:
    Eldrach said:
    2. If, chris roberts lacks funding..there would be a huge line of big publishers interested in taking over the project

    What publisher in their right mind would take over this project after CR himself whipped his fan base into a frenzy over how evil publishers are?

    Even if a publisher overlooked CR's comments about how terrible they are they would run for the hills once they see the community. You can't voice constructive criticism without getting shouted down about it so what do you think the toxic community is going to do when a publisher starts cutting unrealistic features?


    Easy, any publisher. Say he caves after spending 180 million dollars, a publisher then buys him out for 20 million - And gains 5 years of development for almost nothing. They're not liable for anything as the community doesn't actually own anything but promises from a then defunct company. The game would then go on for a year + of development before release and more than make up for the investment.
    Except didn't freelancer take almost 3 years after Microsoft bought out digital anvil to complete the project and this was still after they had to throw out all the unrealistic ideas.

    Plus the publisher is left holding the bill after they racked up this massive technical debt. They have to build a shitload of ships and fulfill promises made by Roberts or probably offer refunds to anyone who chooses. So not only would they have to buy all 4 studios (which they aren't getting for 20 million lol), plus probably pay CR to leave quietly but also issue refunds to customers who are now unhappy about the direction of the game. 


  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 6,054
    When DS first hitched his wagon to the SC juggernaut, he claimed to have "inside information" that he would be revealing by way of a full-page ad in the New York Times. We're still waiting...
    http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/comment/6699868/#Comment_6699868

    Sometime later he announced that he was filing a lawsuit against CIG, and the law firm he engaged sent a letter of ultimatum to CIG. Then nothing happened...
    http://forums.mmorpg.com/discussion/438619/smart-enlists-legal-team-threatens-class-action-lawsuit-star-citizen-mmorpg-com/p1

    DS has been telling us for two and a half years that SC will be running out of money in three months...

    DS is just full of BS !
    Seems like DS is just as bad, if not worse at missing deadlines ;)
    MrMelGibson

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

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