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In this thread, we predict the future

13

Comments

  • TintagilTintagil Member UncommonPosts: 214
    I'm disappointed, I was hoping this thread was about making ridiculous but funny predictions about the future of gaming :(
  • anemoanemo Member RarePosts: 1,903
    Dark and Light just really annoys me.   

    It's like they realized that they can't sell expansions and DLC in Early Access anymore,  so they decided to just move all their devs to a different "branch" and sell it as a new game.

    Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

    "At one point technology meant making tech that could get to the moon, now it means making tech that could get you a taxi."

  • TillerTiller Member LegendaryPosts: 11,125
    edited April 2017
    The OP has a 50/50 chance of being correct lol. He's just a glass half empty kinda person it seems. I will say anyone who has been here on this site and playing MMOs for years would be wise to hold out optimism on any upcoming title as most of us have always done.

     To be honest I tend to be pessimistic about upcoming games too; just the product of being burned so many times. At least these days with all the digital downloads I have less game boxes to have to find a place where they the can collect the most dust.






    SWG Bloodfin vet
    Elder Jedi/Elder Bounty Hunter
     
  • NanfoodleNanfoodle Member LegendaryPosts: 10,610
    edited April 2017
    Snip
  • craftseekercraftseeker Member RarePosts: 1,740






    You know there has been a slow parade of user names, they start threads, make provocative statements, get banned and start again. It's widely believed that it is the same individual. So I got to ask is that you somersaultsam et al?

    And you did state, quite explicitly, 60fps in Ultima Online, in the 1990's. Now you are twisting in the wind 'like a twisty, turny thing'.

    When was the first time, in any MMORPG, at any time, that did not lag in a highly populated area?  It is not today's rigs running older games. The lag is, in the main, server side and network related, not client side and client hardware related.

    You are just making stuff up to get clicks, before you are banned again.




    It's just amazing how paranoid you people are to be assuming I'm a viral marketer, a repeat troll, etc. 
    Clicks for what? Tell me how I benefit from pointing out that the majority of top trending games will fail. I made the thread because I haven't seen any decent MMO news over the past year. Every time I come here, I expect to see SOMETHING new -- and I end up disappointed as usual. I can't even find a new MMO to PURCHASE alpha/beta access -- that's how sad things are today.

    And it can be either -- regarding hardware bottlenecks or server latency. But the point is that we still don't have large-scale battles for MMOs today. It just isn't a working concept -- even though MMOs have tried it and failed repeatedly.

    I haven't broken any rules and it's sad to see you're so triggered over an honest opinion created out of educated guesses.



    "Clicks for what?" asks the poster while advertising his twitch channel in his signature.

    I also notice you do not deny a link to SomersaultSam et al just deflect.
  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276
    edited April 2017






    "Clicks for what?" asks the poster while advertising his twitch channel in his signature.

    I also notice you do not deny a link to SomersaultSam et al just deflect.






    I'd just post 1500 sheeple replies about:

    "Wow! This game looks absolutely fantastic. Do you think they'll have house customization?"
    "OMG, look at those graphics! I can't wait to buy a new graphics card and play this upcoming game!"

    if I wanted twitch views. 


    Instead I chose to post how I actually felt about the gaming scene -- focused on the TOP TRENDING GAMES of mmorpg.com. Using logic revolving around news, graphics, location of the developers, and time in development. And I say it's an educated guess because I've been coming here since the beginning of the website, I've been MMO gaming since I was a wee lad -- during the days of Mech Warrior, Angelfire, Lycos, Yahoo Chats, etc. 

    It's just absurd that you people want to attack me because I said something negative about a video game. You're all so defensive that you had to respond with attacks on me -- instead of "proving me wrong" using news/knowledge over the top trending games. 

    Here's an example of a proper reply to my OP:
    "I do not believe that you are correct about Ashes of Creation. Their development team is currently working hard on producing a great game. Sure, they're new to the MMO scene, but hopefully they'll have a closed beta test in the near future. Only time will tell. But I respect your opinion to believe that the game will suck balls, sir."


  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    @WoeToTheVanquished,

    I think your opinions are just idle ramblings without any detectable insight that would make them worth considering. I base that on many decades of reading theories constructed with logic and solid research which has given me the ability to detect claptrap when I see it.

    Prove me wrong.

    PS.

    And BTW, with respect to Pantheon, the word you were looking for is "appeal" not "adhere" unless you really wanted to communicate the idea that the game won't stick to people in the same way a piece of toilet paper might stick to your butt.
    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • cameltosiscameltosis Member LegendaryPosts: 3,703






    I'll give my (somewhat limited) opinions / predictions:

    1) Ashes of Creation - not heard of it so can't comment

    2) Pantheon - Has an amazing feature list so I believe this one will miss most peoples expectations. It'll disappoint those hoping that all the features were working, but being indie it won't have good market penetration. Name is also very generic so doesn't have any natural attraction. May find a stable core of 20-50k players

    3) Dark and Light - Reboot of a previous failure iirc. Small team so unlikely to go anywhere, but admittedly I don;t know enough to make a good prediction. 

    4) Chronicles of Elyria - These guys have already built one MMO that received good reviews and praise, but lacked the marketing to be popular. This game feels like it's going the same way. Good feature list and the team seems alright, but each press release also reveals at least one feature which stands out as being a bad idea. I have a feeling these guys are going to create some truly great features, but will shoot themselves in the foot with some poor decisions and lack of marketing. 

    5) Crowfall - Out of everyone on the list, these guys seem to have the best business. They're continually feeding the hype train which is good. However, the game itself is pvp focused (so limited appeal) and the actual features don't seem great. I think it will be a flash-in-the-pan type MMO - first 6 months will go great, but retention will be terrible. I fully expect it to make a profit, but ongoing cash is going to be a problem, so don;t expect too many expansions. I reckon maybe 300k-500k box sales in first 6 months, but settling down to 50k stable community 1 year in. 

    6) Camelot Unchained - Possibly one of the most experienced dev teams (DAoC, WAR and SW:TOR I think), their game is all about RvR and they're the most experienced in the industry. Their focus on technology means this is the only one I have faith will actually be working as intended. Their goal is 50k subscribers and I think it'll meet it. They have limited features compared to the others, so I actually think the game at launch is going to work great and will retain enough subscribers to keep it going. However, future growth will be determined by what new features they add, but I think they've the potential to royally screw it up if, for example, they add proper pve in the future. 

    7) Trials of Ascension - not heard of it so can't comment. 
  • AmatheAmathe Member LegendaryPosts: 7,630
    Regardless of the substantive merits, I thought the OP was funny. Props on packaging doom and gloom in a shiny new package. 

    EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests

  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276
    edited April 2017


    Amathe said:


    Regardless of the substantive merits, I thought the OP was funny. Props on packaging doom and gloom in a shiny new package. 




    It wasn't supposed to be funny. I generalized those games from what we've repeatedly seen with MMO development.



    "No, WoeToTheVanquished! Any day now they're gonna release the apex MMO! You shut up with your bad attitude because it's causing development to slow down! Don't post on my website again until you learn basic math and english!"
    -mmorpg.com community
  • TillerTiller Member LegendaryPosts: 11,125
    lol I don't know why everyone is pretending he isn't right; we've all been here many many times before. All MMOs suck, that's why we are shit posting on this site instead of playing games, duh.
    SWG Bloodfin vet
    Elder Jedi/Elder Bounty Hunter
     
  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Life's too short

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • ZionBaneZionBane Member UncommonPosts: 328
    edited April 2017
    Eh? @WoeToTheVanquished Do you Live with your Head in the Sand?  

    Chronicles of Elyria will get made, they already have builds and game footage being put out. Maybe not what they hyped, but this game will go live.

    So.. You're wrong.
  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276

    ZionBane said:

    Eh? @WoeToTheVanquished Do you Live with your Head in the Sand?  

    Chronicles of Elyria will get made, they already have builds and game footage being put out. Maybe not what they hyped, but this game will go live.

    So.. You're wrong.


    I never said it wouldn't release. I said it would fail. It won't meet your expectations after all the time you've waited. The longer the wait, the more disappointing the outcome when a game does something even remotely poorly.
  • ZionBaneZionBane Member UncommonPosts: 328




    ZionBane said:


    Eh? @WoeToTheVanquished Do you Live with your Head in the Sand?  

    Chronicles of Elyria will get made, they already have builds and game footage being put out. Maybe not what they hyped, but this game will go live.

    So.. You're wrong.




    I never said it wouldn't release. I said it would fail. It won't meet your expectations after all the time you've waited. The longer the wait, the more disappointing the outcome when a game does something even remotely poorly.


    You said, "a work in progress for years that will end in failure"  That can be taken as it becomes vaporware. Otherwise, Failure is subjective, what you might consider a failure, could very much in fact be a win for someone else. After all, you don't know what their benchmark is for success.  

    By modern standards, Everquest could be considered a fail, with it's dismal numbers, yet for it's day is was a mind blowing success, and is an Iconic MMO. In many ways, on many levels, EQ made MMO's what they are today, and was the springboard by which WoW was launched off of. 

    So, again, I'm gonna say.. "You're Wrong"

    I also sincerely hope that you are not as pessimistic on your twitch channel as you are on these forums, as I could never listen to such a defeatist attitude about games, for any length of time.
  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276

    ZionBane said:


    You said, "a work in progress for years that will end in failure"  That can be taken as it becomes vaporware. Otherwise, Failure is subjective, what you might consider a failure, could very much in fact be a win for someone else. After all, you don't know what their benchmark is for success.  

    By modern standards, Everquest could be considered a fail, with it's dismal numbers, yet for it's day is was a mind blowing success, and is an Iconic MMO. In many ways, on many levels, EQ made MMO's what they are today, and was the springboard by which WoW was launched off of. 

    So, again, I'm gonna say.. "You're Wrong"

    I also sincerely hope that you are not as pessimistic on your twitch channel as you are on these forums, as I could never listen to such a defeatist attitude about games, for any length of time.


    <troll>
    Wow. I have never been so accurately summarized. I'm ashamed for how I've acted.

    I think it's time for me to financially support these up and coming games -- hopefully they have some good Kickstarters and Patreon programs running. I need to change my defeatist (not to be confused with elitist) attitude right this second. Do you think Star Citizen is a good choice? I'm not really into sci-fi spaceshippery, but I think I can get behind a company as renowned as Cloud Imperium Games.
    I've never heard anything negative about them, and they sure have a great idea! Don't you think?
    </troll>

    By the way, you're wrong. And I would've called it vaporware in the short description room I had available.
  • ZionBaneZionBane Member UncommonPosts: 328
    @WoeToTheVanquished

    How... Exactly.. am I wrong? 
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,536
    While Pantheon won't achieve WoW levels of appeal, it could easily pull 100s of thousands of subs. Millions have enjoyed the two previous titles Pantheon is using as inspiration, and that audience and many younger players will find a highly cooperative and social mmorpg is completely different and refreshing compared to what is currently being offered.


  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276
    edited April 2017


    ZionBane said:


    @WoeToTheVanquished
    How... Exactly.. am I wrong? 


    The longer the game takes to develop, the more money needed to sustain development.
    As the publisher/developer releases news and hype, it gives prospective customers an ever increasing expectation that the game will be perfect. Time is an immense factor through these subjects -- because as I said -- if the game is in DEVELOPMENT FOR YEARS and then RELEASES IN IMPERFECT CONDITION (inevitably), it will fail quite quickly upon release. 

    Take this for example, upon release is when a game makes most profit:


    and profit dwindles over time. A game will need to have PERFECT traits to keep people playing. A game will need to be UNREALISTICALLY perfect if development time took years to make while also HYPING their product.

     Most likely the prospective buyer will not enjoy  the released product -- because the game took too long to develop and it makes no sense to the buyer that they feel unfulfilled with the game they waited forever to play. The longer the wait, the more "doomed" the company is to fail.

    A perfect example of a company destined to fail is Cloud Imperium Games -- aka Star Citizen. They've been in development for too long. The game is now unrealistically expected to fulfill every backer's fantasy. Even if CIG releases a good game, they're still going to experience immense backlash, the developers will be stressed FURTHER after release, and Star Citizen will never be perfect. 

    -> continuing my first point about development and money to sustain development -> a game will release, make a profit, and hopefully continue making profit to create new content and release the content. But if the game fails at keeping promises (which long development time creates unrealistic promises and expectations), the game's revenue will look like the above graph and thus it will become a failure. Not vaporware -- but a failure in the eyes of the publisher/developer and consumer.

    Thanks for playing.

    -------

    I would also like to mention that Grinding Gear Games is a company which defies my theory. They developed their product with minor news / updates over the years. They miraculously released it into the wild with little expectations from consumers.They created a good product, persistently added GREAT content to turn it into an AMAZING product, but unfortunately it doesn't fit the category of an MMORPG -- it's an instanced online ARPG. But GGG is definitely one of the best game developers currently.

    Post edited by WoeToTheVanquished on
  • ZionBaneZionBane Member UncommonPosts: 328





    ZionBane said:



    @WoeToTheVanquished
    How... Exactly.. am I wrong? 



    The longer the game takes to develop, the more money needed to sustain development.
    As the publisher/developer releases news and hype, it gives prospective customers an ever increasing expectation that the game will be perfect. Time is an immense factor through these subjects -- because as I said -- if the game is in DEVELOPMENT FOR YEARS and then RELEASES IN IMPERFECT CONDITION (inevitably), it will fail quite quickly upon release. 

    Take this for example, upon release is when a game makes most profit:


    and profit dwindles over time. A game will need to have PERFECT traits to keep people playing. A game will need to be UNREALISTICALLY perfect if development time took years to make while also HYPING their product.

     Most likely the prospective buyer will not enjoy  the released product -- because the game took too long to develop and it makes no sense to the buyer that they feel unfulfilled with the game they waited forever to play. The longer the wait, the more "doomed" the company is to fail.

    A perfect example of a company destined to fail is Cloud Imperium Games -- aka Star Citizen. They've been in development for too long. The game is now unrealistically expected to fulfill every backer's fantasy. Even if CIG releases a good game, they're still going to experience immense backlash, the developers will be stressed FURTHER after release, and Star Citizen will never be perfect. 

    -> continuing my first point about development and money to sustain development -> a game will release, make a profit, and hopefully continue making profit to create new content and release the content. But if the game fails at keeping promises (which long development time creates unrealistic promises and expectations), the game's revenue will look like the above graph and thus it will become a failure. Not vaporware -- but a failure in the eyes of the publisher/developer and consumer.

    Thanks for playing.

    -------

    I would also like to mention that Grinding Gear Games is a company which defies my theory. They developed their product with minor news / updates over the years. They miraculously released it into the wild with little expectations from consumers.They created a good product, persistently added GREAT content to turn it into an AMAZING product, but unfortunately it doesn't fit the category of an MMORPG -- it's an instanced online ARPG. But GGG is definitely one of the best game developers currently.



    You are committing a modus tollendo ponens

    Case in point, GW2 was hyped for years before it's release, and, when it went live.. well, it's still one of the top games out there. 

    Elder Scrolls Online, another game.. Hyped for a LONG time, in fact, it was already being whispered about as in production, when Skyrim hit popularity, and while it was never intended to be a WoW-Killer, it is still going strong and released it's first expansion, with a lot of positive reviews.

    Overwatch was also hyped in immense amount and yet still delivered one stellar game.

    And.. pretty much every Zelda game.. made.. ever... hyped years ahead.. and still.. all of them were solid games. 

    You are confusing length of development to be the same as failing to deliver on a promise.

    If you make what you say you're going to make, your backers will be happy, even if they have wait a while for it.

    There is evidence of this all over the Internet, the fact the developers delivered, and made a great game, makes the hype seem less "hype" and more. the reality of the game.

    That is why your ilk only remember the failures and have such a pessimistic view of games.
  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276
    edited April 2017




    ZionBane said:




    You are committing a modus tollendo ponens

    Case in point, GW2 was hyped for years before it's release, and, when it went live.. well, it's still one of the top games out there. 

    Elder Scrolls Online, another game.. Hyped for a LONG time, in fact, it was already being whispered about as in production, when Skyrim hit popularity, and while it was never intended to be a WoW-Killer, it is still going strong and released it's first expansion, with a lot of positive reviews.

    Overwatch was also hyped in immense amount and yet still delivered one stellar game.

    And.. pretty much every Zelda game.. made.. ever... hyped years ahead.. and still.. all of them were solid games. 

    You are confusing length of development to be the same as failing to deliver on a promise.

    If you make what you say you're going to make, your backers will be happy, even if they have wait a while for it.

    There is evidence of this all over the Internet, the fact the developers delivered, and made a great game, makes the hype seem less "hype" and more. the reality of the game.

    That is why your ilk only remember the failures and have such a pessimistic view of games.








    None of the MMOs you've mentioned are top revenue producing games. ESO and GW2 can support themselves -- but they are by far flawed games. They're on par with Final Fantasy 14 -- which is also a flawed game that manages to support itself. 

    Here are some non-edu sources regarding revenue of your choice games: https://www.forbes.com/sites/archenemy/2015/07/20/the-resounding-whimper-of-the-elder-scrolls-online-release/#5e4092514062
    However, ESO has been doing better recently because of the overall MMO decline.

    http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx


    [mod edit]


    Post edited by Vaross on
  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Kinky

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • Alexander.BAlexander.B Member UncommonPosts: 90
    I agree with OP.
  • BoneserinoBoneserino Member UncommonPosts: 1,768


    I agree with OP.


    Well, at least your little brother agrees with you.

    FFA Nonconsentual Full Loot PvP ...You know you want it!!

  • WoeToTheVanquishedWoeToTheVanquished Member UncommonPosts: 276
    edited April 2017
    ZionBane said:

    [mod edit]





    [mod edit]
    Vardahoth said:
    Reasons of "if they fail" are pretty shallow. Honestly I can take anything and say the same thing. You're "I am right" argument holds zero substance.






    I purposely made them shallow (summarized) because the image would've been 5mb in size to list every reason why those MMOs will fail. Y'know what I mean? In my opinion, it was more attractive to leave a short paragraph next to each title -- in an image.
    Post edited by Vaross on
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