Then basically you agree with him, because by backing up Kano he's already saying 50k is the likely forecast at this time anyways.
500k though.... Did Everquest even have that many? Remember that people have to actually know about the existance of this game and care enough to look at it before they will actually buy it. How far do you think the game's marketting department will be able to reach? How many people do you think will look at the name, "Pantheon", and decide to spend money to try it out? This isn't an F2P or non-subscription B2P game either (unless that changed?) so getting that many people to open up their wallets for it will be all that much harder.
People will be able to play the trial before purchasing.
EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
The fact EQ still exists and the fact P99 has players is all the proof I need to know that this game has a fair shot at being a viable product in this flooded market of F2P cash shop solo extravaganzas. I myself prefer a game that promotes group play. I also prefer P2P games that don't cater to the rich crowd. I'm tired of seeing Jonny 1, 2 and 3 throwing money at a game I play completely negating the point of MMO's altogether forcing developers to toss out half ass garbage updates to feed the content locust frenzy.
EQ isn't a niche game, WoW isn't either, nor is FFXIV and they all have forced group content.
EQ1s playerbase is very small today, P99 playerbase is *tiny*
Also mentioning WoW + FFXIV - two games that are AAA solo friendly themeparks - compared to indie-small budget Pantheon which is a lot like EQ1 vanilla - that's a really strange comparison.
If you want to compare Pantheon to something similar TODAY - it would be P99 - and yeah the population there is miniscule.
EQ1 is Daybreaks highest populated game they own.
Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.
Then basically you agree with him, because by backing up Kano he's already saying 50k is the likely forecast at this time anyways.
500k though.... Did Everquest even have that many? Remember that people have to actually know about the existance of this game and care enough to look at it before they will actually buy it. How far do you think the game's marketting department will be able to reach? How many people do you think will look at the name, "Pantheon", and decide to spend money to try it out? This isn't an F2P or non-subscription B2P game either (unless that changed?) so getting that many people to open up their wallets for it will be all that much harder.
People will be able to play the trial before purchasing.
EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
I remember seeing graphs that showed various game populations. As I remember it Everquest topped out at around 700k. 450k is certainly verifiable.
Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.
H1Z1 is far more populated than EQ1 - so you are mistaken.
Pantheon is heavily based on vanilla EQ1 - which is P99 - there is no other game on the market that is closer to Pantheon than P99 - and yes I am talking about gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc...
A 20 year old emulated game run volunteers, plagued it's entire lifespan by staff corruption, with a painfully slow development timeline, overrun by a hardcore playerbase, with an economy swamped in mudflation, that hasn't launched a new server in it's 7 year lifespan and has no future development planned, is not at all representative of what Pantheon will offer or it's potential popularity - despite some mechanical similarities.
Then basically you agree with him, because by backing up Kano he's already saying 50k is the likely forecast at this time anyways.
500k though.... Did Everquest even have that many? Remember that people have to actually know about the existance of this game and care enough to look at it before they will actually buy it. How far do you think the game's marketting department will be able to reach? How many people do you think will look at the name, "Pantheon", and decide to spend money to try it out? This isn't an F2P or non-subscription B2P game either (unless that changed?) so getting that many people to open up their wallets for it will be all that much harder.
People will be able to play the trial before purchasing.
EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
I remember seeing graphs that showed various game populations. As I remember it Everquest topped out at around 700k. 450k is certainly verifiable.
700K never happened for EQ1, the got close to 500K
if there was such a huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today:
- P99 wouldn't have around 1200 players at peak, it would be in tens of thousands - There would be a at least half a dozen EQ1 "clones" in the works right now
Neither is happening - you know why?
Because there isn't 450k players who'd play EQ1 type game today - that's why, people grew up, they have full time jobs and families.
EQ1 required vast amounts of time to play - this kind of time commitment is simply unmanageable today for players who have families and jobs.
700k? Could have been, might have been, probably wasn't. You have been around long enough to remember those graphs to, their methodology was. ..... questionable? and disputed at the time, lots of discussion on this site about them at the time. The 450k figure was from SOE though, and somewhat before the peak.
You may be right and Pantheon may be huge (in the West) yet I hardly see nor believe we are in an MMO drought. There are plenty of games out and coming out. This is and was always intended to be, a niche genre and the genre is better for that.
I consider MMO's being in a drought, at least when it comes to finding what I'm interested in. To me it's like walking into a water store and seeing 10000 bottles of flavored water when all I want is tap water and we have no sink.
100 to 200 thousand is a BIG win for this game. 50,000 to 100,000? still a win. You are looking at $9 to $18 million a year in revenue.
Agreed. But it will be a loss of sorts for those who believe that the way forward for MMORPGs is to go backwards.
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I never said that it's "representative of what Pantheon will offer".
I said that as far as "gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc..." - it's the closest game on the market to what Pantheon gameplay has been shown so far to be like.
You compared it 3 times to p99 in regard to potential popularity. I'm just clarifying a poorly run emulator of an almost-20 year old game, is not in any way a valid comparison or reasonable metric.
Then basically you agree with him, because by backing up Kano he's already saying 50k is the likely forecast at this time anyways.
500k though.... Did Everquest even have that many? Remember that people have to actually know about the existance of this game and care enough to look at it before they will actually buy it. How far do you think the game's marketting department will be able to reach? How many people do you think will look at the name, "Pantheon", and decide to spend money to try it out? This isn't an F2P or non-subscription B2P game either (unless that changed?) so getting that many people to open up their wallets for it will be all that much harder.
People will be able to play the trial before purchasing.
EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
I remember seeing graphs that showed various game populations. As I remember it Everquest topped out at around 700k. 450k is certainly verifiable.
700K never happened for EQ1, the got close to 500K
if there was such a huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today:
- P99 wouldn't have around 1200 players at peak, it would be in tens of thousands - There would be a at least half a dozen EQ1 "clones" in the works right now
Neither is happening - you know why?
Because there isn't 450k players who'd play EQ1 type game today - that's why, people grew up, they have full time jobs and families.
EQ1 required vast amounts of time to play - this kind of time commitment is simply unmanageable today for a huge number of players who used to play EQ1 17 years ago.
Priorities change - it's normal.
Yep, cause people back when EQ1 was big didn't have jobs either, mmhmm.
People act like times have changed, that people didn't have jobs then when we all know that's further from the truth. Did EQ require a lot of time? Hell yes it did but it also was one of the few games that gave players that sense of accomplishment, something that is missing from MMO's for the past many years.
I think you're wrong with when you comment on about the whole huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today. Since so many people put so much stock in graphics, if a game released with similar gameplay aspects as EQ with updated graphics, you'd be extremely surprised just how big of a following it would hold.
On a side note, with all due respect Kano, why the hell is every single post of yours, regardless of the topic at hand, always negative? Being negative about everything make you feel good? I can't say I have ever seen someone so negative on game forums(and I read a lot of different forums) than you. Every time I see your name in a thread, I can pretty much guaran damn tee its going to be something negative. Is that your role on these forums?
Common sense doesn't include an inflation rate. Especially not an inflation rate of 800%. (DMK's number to kitarad's number). And this is being used for actual numbers, not potential numbers. Some people are starting to perform calculations with these numbers in an attempt to show revenue. And that is anticipating 400k or 500k or 1m or 1.2m customers.
I don't have a problem with projected numbers. I have a problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers.
I think you do. My "potential" number calculation it's perfectly reasonable, and it is much closer to reality than the 50k number which is just a wishful thinking from people like you who just can't stand this kind of game and desperately wants it to crash and burn. I said this is a "potential" number so many times I lost count, and "potential" doesn't mean "actual". It's either you don't understand the difference between potential and actual or you just conveniently decided to ignore it.
And talking about common sense, I am not the one inflating the numbers, it's people like you deflating the numbers with no data to back that up who are in the wrong. I provided "historic" numbers that you can actually check yourself with google, there are no numbers that support a 50k subscription base. If 10 Million people went to see Star Wars 1 movie, you expect the same number to see Star Wars 2, you don't project 1 Million viewers just because you hate the saga. Does that make sense to you or it is still gibberish?
And make no mistakes, Pantheon is EQ3, the unofficial successor of one of the biggest MMO IPs, with a combined fan base of well over 50k players.....how can you not understand that's a number that just doesn't make sense. Even now EQ + EQ2 have more than 50k subscribers, but there are also plenty of ex EQ players like me eager to play a modern version of Everquest. And what about new players that never played this kind of games, you talk like no one of the new generation will touch this game with a barge pole, which is also unrealistic.
So don't tell me that you have problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers, when you are backing up a unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected number. The only thing that could sink this game is a launch similar to Vanguard, otherwise this game has the "potential" for 400-500k subscribers, which eventually will settle around an "actual" 200-250k, and that's a more realistic number than your 50k.
The problem is that Pantheon isn't that unique, it share the exact same frame as all other diku-MMO and walks into known territory so people won't have the everquest feeling of experiencing it all for the first time. Back in the days Everquest 1 wasn't a cheap game, in todays gaming market Pantheon is made on a shoestring budget and the market is absolutely flooded with games.
Thankfully Brad have already hinted on how many subscribers the game need and the number they expect and its nowhere near the fantasy numbers we see from fans here. They have spoken of 50k-100k subscribers, I would expect their positive number to be around 150k-200k after the first year.
For the game to reach its potential subscriber base they would need a much larger budget.
Iselin: And the next person who says "but it's a business, they need to make money" can just go fuck yourself.
I feel that Brad and his people have a realistic view of their own game . Unfortunately one cannot say the same for their fan base but that is okay, it's okay to be excited about something you like and post about it. Problem is when you start arguing and then it gets ugly and no longer just about hopes and excitement.
You know when a baby is born to a Hindu family we always place a black mark on the child's face because of the nasty,jealous Indian dieties who will look down and decide to curse the child with misfortune or illness. So when people come to the house and oooed and ahhed over a new born baby, when my cousin was born my grandmother took salt, chillies and mustard seeds and did some prayers and threw them into a fire. How wonderful to know that your gods are that petty that they cannot even stand a baby's cuteness. Our gods even when you get a boon expect you to suffer in pain as payment.
So talking too well or crowing about Pantheon is not something I would do personally for I want this game to succeed. Well I certainly hope you have not drawn the ire of some Hindu Diety OP.
I really dont see how an old school MMO will fly well in 2017 (r whenever this will see the light of day)...Sure there is a niche market for it but will it be big enough to pay the bills?
I'd like to discuss this,
- It's been a long time since old school
- Old school mindset is usually thought as old looking game with old mechanics.
- People tend to think younger people don't have the time or the brain power to play this style.
How do you know this style wouldn't start a new rebirth !!!!!!!
As we know, if an MMORPG's fails to reach it's KS funding target, that does not mean that it doesn't have a massive "potential" player base and widespread "potential" support !
It just means that the hundreds of thousands of "potential" Pantheon players don't yet know the game will exist one day !
After their recent twitch stream and youtube vids I do hope they got an influx of cash and some support from this large potential player base. I think that might be a good indicator on how many are interested in this type of game. I rather take a wait and see attitude on its success or failure after the game is out instead of this fruitless exercise.
The youtube vids got about 20 odd thousand views. If indeed there is such a huge market for this type of game shouldn't that number be higher? It costs nothing to watch it on youtube and yet unique views are that low.
Even a game like Chronicles of Elyria is getting over 50 k views.
Even taking into account the October and December differences in posting date the interest in Elyria is way higher than Pantheon. Places like Youtube is a good litmus to test the reception and there is simply not that much interest in Pantheon and this hidden and undiscovered player trove you speak of is simply not there.
If you look back about nine months back the differences even more stark 276 k versus 106 k views.
Not trying to get you down OP but try to be realistic about this.
I play games because I think I'll enjoy them. They don't have to be 'huge' or 'epic' for me to get enjoyment. The same goes for server populations. I don't require the most populated servers to have a good time. Conversely, you have the people who only like niche games. Games that are under the radar because hardly anybody plays them. It's just as bad.
Play what is fun and not what you perceive others are doing.
The fact that EQ sported a 65% retention rate in the early years, even after half a dozen other MMOs came out, reveals the contrarian nature of people.
65% retention - monthly retention - was indeed very good. What does it mean though?
3 people start playing. After 1 month 1 has left, 2 remain. After 2 months another leaves, only 1 remains. After 3 months - on average - all 3 had left.
All gone. On average. After 3 months.
By EQ1's 5th anniversary it was under 50%. (DAoC had launched). Still good but on average, all gone within 2 months.
Churn is the norm. It means the game has to keep selling. Even for WoW. (100M+ accounts means a lot of people have left).
So its not just about Pantheon selling. For if its only going to manage 65% retention - only! - it has to keep selling. And keep selling. And keep selling.
And if sales dry up - which is the norm - then it will settle at some rump of subscribers after 6 months.
I really dont see how an old school MMO will fly well in 2017 (r whenever this will see the light of day)...Sure there is a niche market for it but will it be big enough to pay the bills?
I'd like to discuss this,
- It's been a long time since old school
- Old school mindset is usually thought as old looking game with old mechanics.
- People tend to think younger people don't have the time or the brain power to play this style.
How do you know this style wouldn't start a new rebirth !!!!!!!
Anecdotal evidence. My son and his friends (all around 24 yrs old) are all former MMO players cutting their teeth on DAOC, WOW and some others.
Their current stable of games include LOL, Overwatch and a variety of PS4 games, but no MMORPGs.
I even tried to entice my son by giving him ESO for Christmas for his new PS4, since he really enjoyed playing Skyrim.
He decided to start playing Witcher 3 first.
Young people today seem to have so much more vying for their time then they did years ago, my guess is they really aren't seeking a slower paced, more in depth gaming experience.
I'd say EVE like success is a more likely aspiration for this or most any other solid indie title.
But a run away smash hit, little chance of that occurring IMO, too many factors lined up against it at the moment.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
433,000 players at peak, yet EQ (Evercrack) was featured in Time magazine. I seriously doubt Pantheon will top EQ in playerbase. Not that it has to for it to be a success. Let's just keep things in perspective. 100 to 200 thousand is a BIG win for this game. 50,000 to 100,000? still a win. You are looking at $9 to $18 million a year in revenue.
$9M to $18M first year? Allowing for higher initial numbers, less so sales since backers will already have paid.
WoW's average revenue per player - when such data was available last year - was just under $11 (for sub and cash shop. Varied a little but was pretty stable).
So continuing revenue if it retains 50-100k and is priced on a par with WoW would be $5M to $11M. (Remember even if the sub is $15 some of that is tax, whilst 3 and 6 month subs usually have a discount etc.)
EQ1 is Daybreaks highest populated game they own. Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.
H1Z1 is far more populated than EQ1 - so you are mistaken.
Pantheon is heavily based on vanilla EQ1 - which is P99 - there is no other game on the market that is closer to Pantheon than P99 - and yes I am talking about gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc...
I would have thought DCUO was their best title. Jack Emmert being made CEO would certainly support this.
EQ1 is Daybreaks highest populated game they own. Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.
H1Z1 is far more populated than EQ1 - so you are mistaken.
Pantheon is heavily based on vanilla EQ1 - which is P99 - there is no other game on the market that is closer to Pantheon than P99 - and yes I am talking about gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc...
I would have thought DCUO was their best title. Jack Emmert being made CEO would certainly support this.
Not even close - Look at steam stats for DCUO, less than 4k players peak, been under 1000 concurrently since march 2015.
Now I know that steam only shows a portion of playerbase, but the huge disparity between under 1k numbers and greater than 20k H1Z1 numbers ia pretty significant
My friend and I agree, that, there's not much innovation in this title to help push the genre. That being said, it's more like it's targeting a niche market now. Old-school gamers of nostalgia seem to be the primary target. That's not a bad thing by any stretch, but, unfortunately it's not going to bring in tons of subs. I'd be surprised if the game hits above 250k at its peak. There are some things I'd like to see this game do, but it seems a bit early to know, or likely won't happen anyways.
With all the procedural tech coming around, it's possible to create a whole planet for a game world and have decent procedural content. The devs can then just focus on certain areas they want to customize the content for players. Loading screens really shouldn't be there anymore.. I'm really hating this about Pantheon.
Comments
EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.
You have been around long enough to remember those graphs to, their methodology was. ..... questionable? and disputed at the time, lots of discussion on this site about them at the time. The 450k figure was from SOE though, and somewhat before the peak.
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
I consider MMO's being in a drought, at least when it comes to finding what I'm interested in. To me it's like walking into a water store and seeing 10000 bottles of flavored water when all I want is tap water and we have no sink.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
People act like times have changed, that people didn't have jobs then when we all know that's further from the truth. Did EQ require a lot of time? Hell yes it did but it also was one of the few games that gave players that sense of accomplishment, something that is missing from MMO's for the past many years.
I think you're wrong with when you comment on about the whole huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today. Since so many people put so much stock in graphics, if a game released with similar gameplay aspects as EQ with updated graphics, you'd be extremely surprised just how big of a following it would hold.
On a side note, with all due respect Kano, why the hell is every single post of yours, regardless of the topic at hand, always negative? Being negative about everything make you feel good? I can't say I have ever seen someone so negative on game forums(and I read a lot of different forums) than you. Every time I see your name in a thread, I can pretty much guaran damn tee its going to be something negative. Is that your role on these forums?
My "potential" number calculation it's perfectly reasonable, and it is much closer to reality than the 50k number which is just a wishful thinking from people like you who just can't stand this kind of game and desperately wants it to crash and burn.
I said this is a "potential" number so many times I lost count, and "potential" doesn't mean "actual".
It's either you don't understand the difference between potential and actual or you just conveniently decided to ignore it.
And talking about common sense, I am not the one inflating the numbers, it's people like you deflating the numbers with no data to back that up who are in the wrong.
I provided "historic" numbers that you can actually check yourself with google, there are no numbers that support a 50k subscription base.
If 10 Million people went to see Star Wars 1 movie, you expect the same number to see Star Wars 2, you don't project 1 Million viewers just because you hate the saga.
Does that make sense to you or it is still gibberish?
And make no mistakes, Pantheon is EQ3, the unofficial successor of one of the biggest MMO IPs, with a combined fan base of well over 50k players.....how can you not understand that's a number that just doesn't make sense.
Even now EQ + EQ2 have more than 50k subscribers, but there are also plenty of ex EQ players like me eager to play a modern version of Everquest. And what about new players that never played this kind of games, you talk like no one of the new generation will touch this game with a barge pole, which is also unrealistic.
So don't tell me that you have problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers, when you are backing up a unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected number.
The only thing that could sink this game is a launch similar to Vanguard, otherwise this game has the "potential" for 400-500k subscribers, which eventually will settle around an "actual" 200-250k, and that's a more realistic number than your 50k.
Thankfully Brad have already hinted on how many subscribers the game need and the number they expect and its nowhere near the fantasy numbers we see from fans here. They have spoken of 50k-100k subscribers, I would expect their positive number to be around 150k-200k after the first year.
For the game to reach its potential subscriber base they would need a much larger budget.
You know when a baby is born to a Hindu family we always place a black mark on the child's face because of the nasty,jealous Indian dieties who will look down and decide to curse the child with misfortune or illness. So when people come to the house and oooed and ahhed over a new born baby, when my cousin was born my grandmother took salt, chillies and mustard seeds and did some prayers and threw them into a fire. How wonderful to know that your gods are that petty that they cannot even stand a baby's cuteness. Our gods even when you get a boon expect you to suffer in pain as payment.
So talking too well or crowing about Pantheon is not something I would do personally for I want this game to succeed. Well I certainly hope you have not drawn the ire of some Hindu Diety OP.
I'd like to discuss this,
- It's been a long time since old school
- Old school mindset is usually thought as old looking game with old mechanics.
- People tend to think younger people don't have the time or the brain power to play this style.
How do you know this style wouldn't start a new rebirth !!!!!!!
As we know, if an MMORPG's fails to reach it's KS funding target, that does not mean that it doesn't have a massive "potential" player base and widespread "potential" support !
It just means that the hundreds of thousands of "potential" Pantheon players don't yet know the game will exist one day !
The youtube vids got about 20 odd thousand views. If indeed there is such a huge market for this type of game shouldn't that number be higher? It costs nothing to watch it on youtube and yet unique views are that low.
Even a game like Chronicles of Elyria is getting over 50 k views.
Even taking into account the October and December differences in posting date the interest in Elyria is way higher than Pantheon. Places like Youtube is a good litmus to test the reception and there is simply not that much interest in Pantheon and this hidden and undiscovered player trove you speak of is simply not there.
If you look back about nine months back the differences even more stark 276 k versus 106 k views.
Not trying to get you down OP but try to be realistic about this.
Can they survive? maybe.
MAGA
Play what is fun and not what you perceive others are doing.
I self identify as a monkey.
3 people start playing.
After 1 month 1 has left, 2 remain.
After 2 months another leaves, only 1 remains.
After 3 months - on average - all 3 had left.
All gone. On average. After 3 months.
By EQ1's 5th anniversary it was under 50%. (DAoC had launched). Still good but on average, all gone within 2 months.
Churn is the norm. It means the game has to keep selling. Even for WoW. (100M+ accounts means a lot of people have left).
So its not just about Pantheon selling. For if its only going to manage 65% retention - only! - it has to keep selling. And keep selling. And keep selling.
And if sales dry up - which is the norm - then it will settle at some rump of subscribers after 6 months.
Their current stable of games include LOL, Overwatch and a variety of PS4 games, but no MMORPGs.
I even tried to entice my son by giving him ESO for Christmas for his new PS4, since he really enjoyed playing Skyrim.
He decided to start playing Witcher 3 first.
Young people today seem to have so much more vying for their time then they did years ago, my guess is they really aren't seeking a slower paced, more in depth gaming experience.
I'd say EVE like success is a more likely aspiration for this or most any other solid indie title.
But a run away smash hit, little chance of that occurring IMO, too many factors lined up against it at the moment.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
WoW's average revenue per player - when such data was available last year - was just under $11 (for sub and cash shop. Varied a little but was pretty stable).
So continuing revenue if it retains 50-100k and is priced on a par with WoW would be $5M to $11M. (Remember even if the sub is $15 some of that is tax, whilst 3 and 6 month subs usually have a discount etc.)
That's not a bad thing by any stretch, but, unfortunately it's not going to bring in tons of subs. I'd be surprised if the game hits above 250k at its peak.
There are some things I'd like to see this game do, but it seems a bit early to know, or likely won't happen anyways.
With all the procedural tech coming around, it's possible to create a whole planet for a game world and have decent procedural content. The devs can then just focus on certain areas they want to customize the content for players. Loading screens really shouldn't be there anymore.. I'm really hating this about Pantheon.