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Wilki: The message on a classic shard has been pretty consistent since UO:R was released: there are no plans to make one, nor is one likely anytime in the forseeable future. I cant say "never", but it is highly unlikely.
The problem here is that the classic shard audience isn't as big as some people may think, and the group itself is very divided on what they consider to be "classic". So assuming that the entire group is big enough (wich is debatable), while 20% might play pre-AoS, 30% pre-pub 16, 40% pre-UO:R and 10% pre-T2A, there is no one magic shard that will get them ALL to play.
If we could open a classic shard and the return on investment would be enough to pay for the resources that we'd have to remove from developing UO today, there would be no reason not to. Unfortunately, currently is not the case.