I don't think this is proof that the sub model is viable at all. What it does prove is that the sub model is more profitable than the F2P model....... if you have enough players to support it.
The same is true for any model
Yeah it definitely is. The difficulty is that WoW is being used as an example of how the subscription model is still viable when they probably, and it wouldn't be that far a stretch, have 10 times the number of subscribers as all other subscription games combined, lol. WoW is an anomaly. It's like a Russian judge who gives the Russian skater 10/10 even though she fell 10 times. That's why the Olympics throws these scores out
I disagree. WOW uses a sub sure but so also does EVE,Lineage, DAoC and a few others. Plus a number of titles coming out in the near future are going to have a sub model. Like Camelot Unchained and Pantheon.
EVE is going F2P. Lineage has subscribers in North America approaching zero. DAoC and decade old games, I have no idea about. However, I think it's fair to say that subscriptions in the tens of thousands will not support a game today, at least not a AAA game.
Pantheon and CU are coming up, you're right, but there is absolutely no evidence they will survive. However, they are being developed with MUCH smaller teams (like tens of people) so maybe they can be successful. For CU, for instance, they might be able to sustain their current team of 50ish people with $7-10 million annually, if they don't care about making any money. So we're talking about having somewhere between 40000-60000 subscribers. Maybe that's doable, I don't know. Pantheon would probably require even fewer since their dev team is even smaller. So maybe they could do it with 20k subscribers.
I don't think this is proof that the sub model is viable at all. What it does prove is that the sub model is more profitable than the F2P model....... if you have enough players to support it.
The same is true for any model
Yeah it definitely is. The difficulty is that WoW is being used as an example of how the subscription model is still viable when they probably, and it wouldn't be that far a stretch, have 10 times the number of subscribers as all other subscription games combined, lol. WoW is an anomaly. It's like a Russian judge who gives the Russian skater 10/10 even though she fell 10 times. That's why the Olympics throws these scores out
I disagree. WOW uses a sub sure but so also does EVE,Lineage, DAoC and a few others. Plus a number of titles coming out in the near future are going to have a sub model. Like Camelot Unchained and Pantheon.
Two+ years back Bill did an article about the resurgence of the sub model with the upcoming launch of Wildstar, Elder Scrolls Couple and probably a few others as well.
The adage "We shouldn't count chickens until they have hatched" seems appropriate.
Edit: CU also has a B2P model - like the LotR lifetime model.
Just because it works in Asia doesn't mean it will work in the west. What game in the west has an hourly charge to play it? None, because that won't work in the west just like monthly subs don't work as well as they used to. Everything is either F2P or B2P with an optional sub for some games. Sub only games die quickly and don't get that big release boost from the cash shop like other games do. The sub only model is dead in the west and won't be returning.
You have some valid points. But things we think are dead, never to return have a way of coming back.
I totally wan to buy that bike!!!!!
Retro is in, you can go and buy one.
I'm personally waiting for the banana seat with the stick shift between the balls
They only look retro. They're not built retro. So people like the look of what was. That's about all we can conclude from that.
Oh don't kid yourself
They're built retro, the only difference is they're built in China
Smart move and proof once again that the sub model continues to work, regardless of region.
Personally, I don't see that myself.
I bet western publishers wish they could fleece players by the hour like they did with WoW in China.
It is all relative, before the change WoW China players paid RMB30 (USD4.50) for 45 hours of game play or 10 US cents per hour. Prior to that, from 2004 until 2014, they paid the same RMB30 for 66 hours 40 mins online play.
In comparison, monthly sub for WoW China is now RMB 75 - the break-even point when a monthly sub became cheaper than by the hour rate is 3.75 hours average play daily.
To compensate, many regular players in China would have purchased 6 months of sub which entitled them to get discount price of RMB 360 for 6 months - which worked out to cheaper than old rates if you played more than3 hours daily on average. (There's also a 3 months sub with less discount).
I would expect revenue to drop off in months to come from the usual exodus of players after they have experienced the new expansion and also because many of those who remained will not need to renew their sub until their 6 or 3 months subscriptions has finished.
I am sure Blizzard Activision has some input and is pleased by this change of revenue model, because after the change they immediately extended the contract of all their current products with Netease until 2020.
"A game is fun if it is learnable but not trivial" -- Togelius & Schmidhuber
Here's to hoping more and more return to sub and we can all laugh when we remembered the few years when MMORPGs were f2p p2w catastrophes.
Yeah, can't wait for China to push for more sub based gaming ... wait, who cares? If you think China subs will affect western gaming then you should prepare for the F2P market to get worse. WoW is the cause of the F2P MMO push and now, instead of people paying per hour, people are paying monthly they will be even less interested in playing other games which will push for more p2w or more proper term incentive driven purchases.
I would have no problems paying $50 a month to sub to a good game that is not P2W or P2A.
"Sean (Murray) saying MP will be in the game is not remotely close to evidence that at the point of purchase people thought there was MP in the game." - SEANMCAD
Camelot Unchained never tries to monetize you, never slows down, and
won't be “free-to-play.” We respect your commitment to a
subscription-based game; in return, you won't see thinly-veiled grabs
for more money.
Famous last words. I remember reading something similar from Matt Firor a few years ago. Though ESO didn't go f2p they definitely wised up on the subscription-only plan while adding a cash shop. I think those words have probably been said by every Western dev since DDO. The odds of CU adjusting their revenue model is very high.
Very interesting. Even more interesting will be Narius' reaction to this if he can find the strength within to even click on the thread.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Chinese theaters saved the movie from becoming a financial desaster (rumour is that the 2nd part will heavily cater to the chinese audience and perhaps not even see a western release), now chinese subs have to save the game.
Looks like they are now counting on China to save WoW altogether.
Just because it works in Asia doesn't mean it will work in the west. What game in the west has an hourly charge to play it? None, because that won't work in the west just like monthly subs don't work as well as they used to. Everything is either F2P or B2P with an optional sub for some games. Sub only games die quickly and don't get that big release boost from the cash shop like other games do. The sub only model is dead in the west and won't be returning.
Because it's easier to create loot for casino loot boxes and prey on the weak addicted gamers, than actually creating "real" content to satisfy subscribers.
Square Enix proofs that Subscription model still Works, when you put real development effort in regular content updates, like they do with FFXIV.
It holds a firm second place in the charts behind WoW.
Ouch no wonder Blizzard doesn't release Sub numbers anymore. The Majority of those "subs" came from China. Yes Blizzard counted time-cards used as subs.
6 months from now, WoW won't even have 1mil real subs. A very bad move by Blizzard.
The game is just not worth to be subscription based, probably not even B2P. You can keep bombarding us how SuperData is saying that WoW is making a lot of money and Legion sold a lot blah blah..but the real fact is that outside SuperData barely anyone bothers reporting numbers. SuperData is very much skewed towards Blizzard. Legion has so far stayed under the radar, it's really not very popular. WoD was a failure yet so much more popular at launch.
Hmm what was different about august compared to July? What's that, pre legion events and a new class to play with?
Apples to Oranges
Agree. Even more fundamental though: Legion launched in August.
In the US a subscriber who paid $15 in July would pay $15 + $50 in August if they bought Legion. So $65 or just over 4 times more.
Netease numbers: $8M in July, $37M in August - a miracle just over 4 times more!
Now - presumably - no all July subscribers will have bought Legion. However past history shows that people return for an expansion so August - will - its reasonable to assume - have seen a boost. And as @FrodoFragins said the pre-Legion events and so forth will have helped.
So suggesting that the boost in revenue is due to changing to a monthly model is, imo, "somewhat premature".
Lineage, WoW, and FFXIV are very profitable game's that are p2p and there are a number of others as well. The p2p model isn't going anywhere and IMO thank God for that.
I think subscription based games are still possible. Whoever makes it/publishes it will have to have realistic expectations of number of players and not knee jerk a change to f2p .
Comments
EVE is going F2P. Lineage has subscribers in North America approaching zero. DAoC and decade old games, I have no idea about. However, I think it's fair to say that subscriptions in the tens of thousands will not support a game today, at least not a AAA game.
Pantheon and CU are coming up, you're right, but there is absolutely no evidence they will survive. However, they are being developed with MUCH smaller teams (like tens of people) so maybe they can be successful. For CU, for instance, they might be able to sustain their current team of 50ish people with $7-10 million annually, if they don't care about making any money. So we're talking about having somewhere between 40000-60000 subscribers. Maybe that's doable, I don't know. Pantheon would probably require even fewer since their dev team is even smaller. So maybe they could do it with 20k subscribers.
Crazkanuk
----------------
Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
----------------
Was Legion free in China or did players have to buy it?
If this had happened in the US, UK, France etc. the pre-orders and day 1 sales would have boosted revenue.
Two+ years back Bill did an article about the resurgence of the sub model with the upcoming launch of Wildstar, Elder Scrolls Couple and probably a few others as well.
The adage "We shouldn't count chickens until they have hatched" seems appropriate. Edit: CU also has a B2P model - like the LotR lifetime model.
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Apples to Oranges
거북이는 목을 내밀 때 안 움직입니다
I bet western publishers wish they could fleece players by the hour like they did with WoW in China.
They're built retro, the only difference is they're built in China
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
In comparison, monthly sub for WoW China is now RMB 75 - the break-even point when a monthly sub became cheaper than by the hour rate is 3.75 hours average play daily.
To compensate, many regular players in China would have purchased 6 months of sub which entitled them to get discount price of RMB 360 for 6 months - which worked out to cheaper than old rates if you played more than3 hours daily on average. (There's also a 3 months sub with less discount).
I would expect revenue to drop off in months to come from the usual exodus of players after they have experienced the new expansion and also because many of those who remained will not need to renew their sub until their 6 or 3 months subscriptions has finished.
I am sure Blizzard Activision has some input and is pleased by this change of revenue model, because after the change they immediately extended the contract of all their current products with Netease until 2020.
"A game is fun if it is learnable but not trivial" -- Togelius & Schmidhuber
Yeah, can't wait for China to push for more sub based gaming ... wait, who cares? If you think China subs will affect western gaming then you should prepare for the F2P market to get worse. WoW is the cause of the F2P MMO push and now, instead of people paying per hour, people are paying monthly they will be even less interested in playing other games which will push for more p2w or more proper term incentive driven purchases.
Don't say that too loud
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Looks like they are now counting on China to save WoW altogether.
Because it's easier to create loot for casino loot boxes and prey on the weak addicted gamers, than actually creating "real" content to satisfy subscribers.
Square Enix proofs that Subscription model still Works, when you put real development effort in regular content updates, like they do with FFXIV.
It holds a firm second place in the charts behind WoW.
6 months from now, WoW won't even have 1mil real subs. A very bad move by Blizzard. The game is just not worth to be subscription based, probably not even B2P. You can keep bombarding us how SuperData is saying that WoW is making a lot of money and Legion sold a lot blah blah..but the real fact is that outside SuperData barely anyone bothers reporting numbers. SuperData is very much skewed towards Blizzard. Legion has so far stayed under the radar, it's really not very popular. WoD was a failure yet so much more popular at launch.
In the US a subscriber who paid $15 in July would pay $15 + $50 in August if they bought Legion. So $65 or just over 4 times more.
Netease numbers: $8M in July, $37M in August - a miracle just over 4 times more!
Now - presumably - no all July subscribers will have bought Legion. However past history shows that people return for an expansion so August - will - its reasonable to assume - have seen a boost. And as @FrodoFragins said the pre-Legion events and so forth will have helped.
So suggesting that the boost in revenue is due to changing to a monthly model is, imo, "somewhat premature".