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How reasonable is expecting 2016 Launch ?

ShadanwolfShadanwolf Member UncommonPosts: 2,376
Anyone have any thoughts on the game getting out this year .....or is 2017 more reasonable ?

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Comments

  • PepeqPepeq Member UncommonPosts: 1,977
    Look at it this way... if it does come out in 2016, it won't be the game they said they were making.  
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Pepeq said:
    Look at it this way... if it does come out in 2016, it won't be the game they said they were making.  
    Ah, you are too kind =)

    PS Of course, neither CF nor CU will launch in 2016, with even 2018 being a possibility.
     W...aaagh?
  • VarkingVarking Member UncommonPosts: 541
    I believe the game will launch in 2017.
  • ValentinaValentina Member UncommonPosts: 1,845
    Unreasonable.
  • waynejr2waynejr2 Member EpicPosts: 7,768
    Anyone have any thoughts on the game getting out this year .....or is 2017 more reasonable ?


    If you assume it is coming out in 2016 and they haven't said it is coming out in 2016, then I would say that is generally unreasonable.
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  • AxxarAxxar Member UncommonPosts: 53
    Their website wears "IGN's most anticipated MMORPGs of 2016" as a badge, though.
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Axxar said:
    Their website wears "IGN's most anticipated MMORPGs of 2016" as a badge, though.
    It's a nice badge to have.
     W...aaagh?
  • meddyckmeddyck Member UncommonPosts: 1,268
    Anyone have any thoughts on the game getting out this year .....or is 2017 more reasonable ?

    Very late 2017 is possible but I'm starting to think 2018 is more likely. :(

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  • Boot_legBoot_leg Member UncommonPosts: 28
    I have a feeling once people get their hands on a playable beta, this games hype is going to blow up in a huge way.
  • Arkade99Arkade99 Member RarePosts: 435
    Pepeq said:
    Look at it this way... if it does come out in 2016, it won't be the game they said they were making.  
    Ah, you are too kind =)

    PS Of course, neither CF nor CU will launch in 2016, with even 2018 being a possibility.
    I can't speak for CU, but I seriously doubt that CF slips to 2018. CF originally targeted December 2016, so I can easily see it slipping into 2017. Siege Perilous was pushed back a month to do more iteration on the combat, so the launch may already be pushed back a month, but I can't see it getting pushed back more than a year. We will absolutely have a playable campaign some time this year. It won't take another year (or more) beyond that.
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Arkade99 said:
    Pepeq said:
    Look at it this way... if it does come out in 2016, it won't be the game they said they were making.  
    Ah, you are too kind =)

    PS Of course, neither CF nor CU will launch in 2016, with even 2018 being a possibility.
    I can't speak for CU, but I seriously doubt that CF slips to 2018. CF originally targeted December 2016, so I can easily see it slipping into 2017. Siege Perilous was pushed back a month to do more iteration on the combat, so the launch may already be pushed back a month, but I can't see it getting pushed back more than a year. We will absolutely have a playable campaign some time this year. It won't take another year (or more) beyond that.
    I agree, basically. I think of 2018 just as of distant possibility, a kind of worst case scenario.
     W...aaagh?
  • rodarinrodarin Member RarePosts: 2,401
    Not sure of the line of thinking.

    If they are building a 'sand box' game how hard is taht? Guy put out foundation stuff in months. As in a world game mechanics, character creation models. If they are going to have 'classes' then it really isnt a sand box. So make a skill set and advancement system and you have soemthing ready for release.

    If they add NPCs or quests or whatever later on what does that matter? If its non linear they can add that stuff whenever and where ever they want to going forward.

    Take a game like ARK or Life is Feudal what if they suddenly said...lets have quests and NPCs and dungeons (ARK is already adding some things) does that make the game better or worse and why would it have to stop them from releasing what tthey have had for months?

    Most game at release are garbage anyway especially int he content department do holding them back to basically add more 'content' doesnt make sense.

    If a developer cant get a base game made and working in a year and a half then they shouldnt be releasing one anyway.

    The arguments were always size and scope as the reasons why games took so long to develop. When what people should have focused on is world building and generic development is the easiest thing to do and thats why these pocket games with small maps and limited server sizes can be pushed out so fast. Link a few of those together every few months and it wouldnt take long to have a fairly large game going. If ARK or LiF or any other one of these games added what they launched with every 6 months after 5 years (the time most people think it would take to develop a game) they would have something making money and expanding for those 5 years. But  they also know hype is much better than reality. So whats better a game that could have grown 8 or 10 times and playable or the hype train?
  • monochrome19monochrome19 Member UncommonPosts: 715
    I'm gonna say first quarter 2018.
  • time007time007 Member UncommonPosts: 1,050
    yeah i think it'll be 2017-2018

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  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 15,900
    Boot_leg said:
    I have a feeling once people get their hands on a playable beta, this games hype is going to blow up in a huge way.
    I don't ,i think Pantheon has a better chance of seeing some hype,it is doing a lot of things the right way.

    This is a very small team both this and Pantheon have budgets that are simply too small to expect anything hyping as a Triple A game.

    I will however be interested to see just what both games can do with a short budget and small team,i am not expecting too much so perhaps they can both surprise me.

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  • pythonlabspythonlabs Member UncommonPosts: 13
    Early 2017,  I dont think either has the budget to continue into 2018 without a steady revenue stream.
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Early 2017,  I dont think either has the budget to continue into 2018 without a steady revenue stream.
    Hey, welcome to the forums!

    Speaking of budgets (currently CF - $6.5M, CU - $7M) AFAIK they should suffice roughly till mid-2017 at least, that is - if pledgemeters keep on ticking in their current, rather slow tempos.

    Of course, alphas/betas and especially pre-launch should accelerate that a bit.
     W...aaagh?
  • FranciscourantFranciscourant Member UncommonPosts: 356
    edited February 2016
    Early 2017,  I dont think either has the budget to continue into 2018 without a steady revenue stream.
    Hey, welcome to the forums!

    Speaking of budgets (currently CF - $6.5M, CU - $7M) AFAIK they should suffice roughly till mid-2017 at least, that is - if pledgemeters keep on ticking in their current, rather slow tempos.

    Of course, alphas/betas and especially pre-launch should accelerate that a bit.
    Agreed. I also believe that $6,5-7M is enough to create CU and CF. I remember ACE saying that they needed only 6 millions to develop Crowfall, and CSE not so long ago mentioned that they were still good with the budget. So in theory they should both be fine...

    However in practice, not all the money goes toward development. ACE is publishing tons of eye candy art and that costs a lot in salaries (at least 4 people were creating art concepts, posters and banners for a long time), they've many community staff, translators, web design and admins, VP of production, advisors, video producer, etc. to pay salaries for and as far as I know most of their work do not contribute to game development directly.

    Another important expense is creating polished environments (maps) that are only used temporarily and then deleted. The KS demo and the Hunger Dome are examples: it must have taken so much time polishing those maps with all the trees, hills, structures, objects, grass, etc. just to see them scrapped later. Of course they plan to reuse some of the things, but it's still extremely time consuming to make an environment look "awesome" and only parts of it will be used in the real game.

    As for CSE, I guess that most of the backers' money goes into game development, but they probably also spend some money on things like forum staff, live streams, communication on social medias, etc. Not really a problem imo since it's information given to the backers about the game development and CSE most likely keep their expenditures to the minimum.
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Both games should get couple more millions till launch, and of course my napkin math has lots of varying or unknown details.

    Say, teams tend to grow before launch but OTOH pledgemeters will also accelerate significantly. Crowfall spent a million before KS - I wonder whether Gordon counted that in his "$6M for core game" from last April....And so on (I must stop typing before I write series of textwalls).

    It's quite possible that CF underestimated (to put it mildly) time/money needed to optimize good old Unity for large scale, and it seems to me that CU is doing something similar with, say, The Depths - the most substantial answer I managed to get (Ben, twitch stream chat) was roughly "We have procedural terrain generation" (!) while others were standard "Don't worry"s =)

     W...aaagh?
  • Nayr752Nayr752 Member UncommonPosts: 172
    It won't be out until probably 2017 most likely. In my opinion.
  • FranciscourantFranciscourant Member UncommonPosts: 356
    Both games should get couple more millions till launch, and of course my napkin math has lots of varying or unknown details.

    Say, teams tend to grow before launch but OTOH pledgemeters will also accelerate significantly. Crowfall spent a million before KS - I wonder whether Gordon counted that in his "$6M for core game" from last April....And so on (I must stop typing before I write series of textwalls).

    It's quite possible that CF underestimated (to put it mildly) time/money needed to optimize good old Unity for large scale, and it seems to me that CU is doing something similar with, say, The Depths - the most substantial answer I managed to get (Ben, twitch stream chat) was roughly "We have procedural terrain generation" (!) while others were standard "Don't worry"s =)

    True, they can always get more money before launch, from investors or backers. Concerning the 6 millions, I'm not sure if it included pre-KS development, but the way I read it is that $6M was enough for the whole development, from A to Z.

    As for Unity, there's no evidence that it can support even medium size battles (50v50) with acceptable performances. Optimization can help getting better frame rate, but engines have intrinsic limits and judging from Hunger Dome, a very small map (arena type) with trees, 2 types of monsters, ~25 players, houses, a big stronghold... and it's already hard to get decent frame rate.

    The Depths would be really cool, like double icing on the cake. They got some great ideas for it... I agree that it was maybe too ambitious for the scale of the project. I'm confident that CSE will do their best to deliver what was announced though!
  • JamesGoblinJamesGoblin Member RarePosts: 1,239
    Both games should get couple more millions till launch, and of course my napkin math has lots of varying or unknown details.

    Say, teams tend to grow before launch but OTOH pledgemeters will also accelerate significantly. Crowfall spent a million before KS - I wonder whether Gordon counted that in his "$6M for core game" from last April....And so on (I must stop typing before I write series of textwalls).

    It's quite possible that CF underestimated (to put it mildly) time/money needed to optimize good old Unity for large scale, and it seems to me that CU is doing something similar with, say, The Depths - the most substantial answer I managed to get (Ben, twitch stream chat) was roughly "We have procedural terrain generation" (!) while others were standard "Don't worry"s =)

    True, they can always get more money before launch, from investors or backers. Concerning the 6 millions, I'm not sure if it included pre-KS development, but the way I read it is that $6M was enough for the whole development, from A to Z.

    As for Unity, there's no evidence that it can support even medium size battles (50v50) with acceptable performances. Optimization can help getting better frame rate, but engines have intrinsic limits and judging from Hunger Dome, a very small map (arena type) with trees, 2 types of monsters, ~25 players, houses, a big stronghold... and it's already hard to get decent frame rate.

    The Depths would be really cool, like double icing on the cake. They got some great ideas for it... I agree that it was maybe too ambitious for the scale of the project. I'm confident that CSE will do their best to deliver what was announced though!
    Couple interesting facts about CF and Unity:

    - Howard Smith, ex-Lead Client Programmer who announced and "officially defended" Unity choice, left the team meantime!? Sky is not falling OFC, I just see it as a fun fact =)

    - The most Unity-optimistic "independent" source (since CF programmers are kinda bound to filter info and be U-optimists) I talked to is Senior Programmer Marc Hernandez of...Camelot Unchained!

    He is CF pledge owner BTW (ssshhh! I didn't say this!) and considers MMO optimization possible, but it might require insane (my reading of his words) amount of man-hours i.e. money - relative to what CF can afford if nothing significant happens to the pledgemeter.


    Now, I believe that ACE will have enough time (a year and a half or more IMO) to deliver decent framerate in 50 vs 50 or even higher, but the game won't be able to operate on MMO scale without at least 300-500 players supported in small area.

    Otherwise - with lower numbers - they'd have to put concurrent server players cap at, say, 800 or 500 or even lower, in order to avoid constant server crashes in "highly orchestrated" Campaigns (think: Eve). "Continent" sizes would take huge hit and Campaigns would - at best - last a week or two.

    At least that's my noob opinion on Unity, server caps and MMO vs MMOBA. Of course - I'd love to hear something more than another "Don't worry" from devs.
     W...aaagh?
  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 18,812
    Axxar said:
    Their website wears "IGN's most anticipated MMORPGs of 2016" as a badge, though.
    Yes, because an IGN badge means....
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  • AxxarAxxar Member UncommonPosts: 53
    edited March 2016
    So nobody except IGN believes in a 2016 launch. Great, I'll just go play some of the current great MMORPGs that have already released.

    Oh wait. There aren't any.

    :(
  • A1learjetA1learjet Member UncommonPosts: 258
    Pepeq said:
    Look at it this way... if it does come out in 2016, it won't be the game they said they were making.  
    Ah, you are too kind =)

    PS Of course, neither CF nor CU will launch in 2016, with even 2018 being a possibility.
    Oddly same feeling ........

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