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Is WoW going to be the last P2P MMO?

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  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 19,332
    Originally posted by Sircampsalot08
    FFXIV is also showing the subscription model still works.

    Funny thing is MANY never knew FFXI existed and now i still see tons fo gamer's playing ONLY Blizzard games.So it seems lots of naive gamer's believing only Blizzard exists in this world of gaming.

    Truth is that there are not many sub based games and for a reason,MOST games i see coming out are complete garbage,you couldn't pay me to play them.Devs are not stupid,if they thought their game could warrant MORE MONEY,in a subscription model,they would do it in a heartbeat.

    There are two trends right now,well three

    1 Rush out a completely unfinished game,charge a finished price for it but get around charge backs for selling an unfinished product by claiming early access.

    2 Rush out complete junk and just go f2p,reel them in with easy leveling then hit them hard once you have them hooked.

    3 Make a half decent game "still rushed and unfinished",go subscription to get as much extra money as you can then turn to f2p since the game was already designed cheaply to support f2p.

    Bottom line is that devs are making a lot of games that are no where near Triple A and not worth a sub fee.

    Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.

  • h0tNstilettosh0tNstilettos Member Posts: 25
    Originally posted by Wizardry
    Originally posted by Sircampsalot08
    FFXIV is also showing the subscription model still works.

    Funny thing is MANY never knew FFXI existed and now i still see tons fo gamer's playing ONLY Blizzard games.So it seems lots of naive gamer's believing only Blizzard exists in this world of gaming.

    Truth is that there are not many sub based games and for a reason,MOST games i see coming out are complete garbage,you couldn't pay me to play them.Devs are not stupid,if they thought their game could warrant MORE MONEY,in a subscription model,they would do it in a heartbeat.

    There are two trends right now,well three

    1 Rush out a completely unfinished game,charge a finished price for it but get around charge backs for selling an unfinished product by claiming early access.

    2 Rush out complete junk and just go f2p,reel them in with easy leveling then hit them hard once you have them hooked.

    3 Make a half decent game "still rushed and unfinished",go subscription to get as much extra money as you can then turn to f2p since the game was already designed cheaply to support f2p.

    Bottom line is that devs are making a lot of games that are no where near Triple A and not worth a sub fee.

    True, almost every MMO since WoW has seemed that way, and then a Triple A MMO FFXIV:ARR came and doesn't fall into any of those. Wondered when I would see the day.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by h0tNstilettos
    Originally posted by gervaise1
    Originally posted by h0tNstilettos

    Abysmal!!?? FFXIV has millions of players. That is NOT abysmal. Sure it's still a lot less than WoW, but considering FFXIV's population has continued to grow and swallow everything in its path since it came out almost 2 years ago, you can't say abysmal. FFXIV, unlike other MMOs doesn't really see any pre-patch droughts due to how much content they release and more frequent than any other MMO at every 1.5 months, and 3 months for major content patches.

    Then again the OP was misleading as FFXIV has not been out 5 years as that horrendous, worst MMO of all time was scrapped and shut down as they remade a completely new game from the ground up as FFXIV: A Realm Reborn that has only been out almost 2 years. So maybe you were referring to that abysmal FFXIV that was scrapped.

    There is nothing "abysmal" about FFXIV and yes FFXIV does release new content on a regular basis however:

    • FFXIV was not closed down whilst a complete new game was made; it is the same game albeit "lovingly" reworked
    • FFXIV probably doesn't have "millions" of players; we know (from SE's recently published end of year results) that all 3 of SE's mmos made c. 6B yen last quarter. This revenue includes any box sales, cash shop revenue and subs. It represents stable revenue. It is good but if 100% of it were from FFXIV and 100% of it was from subscriptions then @$14 a sub Torval in another thread calculated it would be about 600k subs; at $11 a sub it could be 1.4M; and yes at $2 a sub it would be millions. As mentioned however the revenue was for all mmos and included box sales and any cash shop revenue in all mmos that SE run.
    • And revenue for all mmos for all four quarters was about 6B. The message SE are sending out is stable.
    • Last year SE said it had 1M+ subscribers across all 3 games; they haven't said this year. We don't know what that meant however. DQX, for example, has a 3 day sub option we just assume - wrongly - that it means monthly subs. Maybe DQX had a special weekend event last year and there was a sub spike. Or it could be FFXIV's China launch; this isn't bringing in much money yet (source: regional revenue for Asia for all SE products excluding Japan went up from just 0.2B yen to 0.3B yen could have brought in "many" extra subscribers. Who knows. It doesn't matter.
    Stable. Good. No problems. Nothing to suggest regular content will stop. That is SE's mmo message in their recent results. No need to push the boat out however. No need to get defensive or exaggerate.

     

    That thing about playerbase from all 3 of their MMOs that yourself and others spread around was a mistake made my Polygon earlier this year that they later apologized for. They published a report from March 2014 showing SE's subs in 2013 for their MMOs. Many publications trusted Polygon and also posted the same thing and it spread like wildfire. Scroll to the bottom of this article to read the mistake. http://www.polygon.com/2015/1/2/7480177/square-enix-final-fantasy-14-final-fantasy-11-dragon-quest-10-subscribers

    Also, yes FFXIV was closed down. They kept it up for a little while as a free game while they worked on FFXIV: A Realm Reborn. Then they shut down FFXIV and FFXIV: A Realm Reborn was released in late 2013. It was not 'reworked' as some people seem to believe. The only thing brought from FFXIV to ARR was some names of some dungeons, places, NPCs, etc, and a continuing story. ARR was a new game created from the ground up, not 'reworked'.

    I should also point out that SE does not use the word subscribers because not every country uses subscription for the game ever since it released for China late 2014. China for example uses game cards for time. FFXIV does have millions of players. There are regular queues just to get on the servers, and there are websites such as ffxivsoul and others that show active players vs non-active.

    What I said, quote: "Last year SE said it had 1M+ subscribers across all games". Which, as you said, was what SE said in March 2014. Not sure what gave you the idea that I was talking about some Polygon article.

    As for closing it down and making FFXIV "ARR" from the ground up in just over a year. Seriously? SE created a brand new, from the ground up, game in little more than a year?

    SE call the game launched in China: FFXIV. In Korea they are launching .... FFXIV. SE haven't given out two sets of sales numbers. People who bought FFXIV did not have to buy this new game. Yoshi published the reasons FFXIV failed; and is credited with fixing it. But seriously a brand new game in little more than a year .... same game.

    Millions of subs, no. 

    Using SEs 2-14-2015 financial reports and assuming that the only thing making money is FFXIV subs then the number excluding China is 1.35M. This is bonkers unrealistic as it assume no revenue from FFXI or DQX, no FFXIV box sales or cash shop, no FFXIV EU or US subs. And it factors in the multi-month discount in Japan. Absolute unrealistic case. (And why no EU or US - because the sub rate is cheaper in Japan so the number is higher). In China its a royalty, not that simple but SE report regional revenue. And again bonkers unrealistic assumption that SE have no sales in all of Asia except for FFXIV subs in China .... maybe 250k if the royalty is c. 10%. (Uncertainty here but remember this is the unrealistic number that assumes all SE's Asian revenue is from FFXIV subs, no box sales or cash shop).   

    As mentioned this is the absolute - but unrealistic - best case based on SE's latest formal financial report for 2014-2015. A picture of stability, doing OK, steady as she goes but not a picture of millions of subs however. Do your own calcs by all means but remember if you assume lots of new sales then that comes out of the total reported revenue - so less money from subs and so on.

  • sayuusayuu Member RarePosts: 766
    Originally posted by Malabooga
    Originally posted by sayuu
    Originally posted by Bascola
    Originally posted by Arazale
    Originally posted by Albatroes
    Originally posted by Arazale

    WoW isn't in the process of going hybrid in the slightest.

     

    You said yourself, mmo companies are in the business of making money. So if Blizzard thought WoW would make more money going f2p, they would go f2p. FFXIV ARR would have probably 1-2m subs if FFXIV 1.0 wasn't so shitty and burned so many people from ever trying the game, no matter how well they turned it around. Even with the blackmark, FFXIV ARR has managed 500k+ subscribers and actually growing and not losing subscribers.

     

    Clearly this shows there's nothing wrong with p2p mmorpgs. The only problem and i keep repeating this, is shitty games. When you force people to pay a monthly for a shitty game, don't act fucking surprised when people leave your game in hordes. Seriously, why the fuck are you surprised this happens and try to blame it on p2p? If you have a good game, people are going to shell out a monthly for it. End of story.

     

    Token isn't hybrid?

    Hybrid is a f2p game that also has the option for subscription for extra benefits like Tera or SWTOR or LOTRO. Every single person playing WoW even with the Token system, Blizzard is still making the same amount of $$. Because in order to use a token, someone has to have first bought the token.

    Hahah yeah don't bother to explain it, the WoW players do not understand this. They think they are playing for free if they farm gold and then buy a token. They totally can't wrap their heads around the fact that every Token used is $20 for Blizzard. Not only is it a full sub price of $15 it also comes with a premium of $5 for Blizzard.

    /smh

    And you seem unable to grasp the simple concept that for the person that buys the  token with gold doesn't pay any money to do so. . .making the aqusition of 30 days of access free to that player. . .so that Player IS PLAYING FOR FREE. . .I can break out the magic markers and whip up a Barney costume if your IQ still needs it dumbed down even further.

    Nobody is playing WoW for free, get that notion out of your head. Each and every month every player plays in WoW is paid for. Its irrelevant WHO pays for it.

    Thats in the west of course, not to nitpick theres no sub in the east to start with.

    I guess i do need to get the Barney costume after all. . .

  • AlamonzoroAlamonzoro Member UncommonPosts: 120
    no,but it will the only one that will last the longest of all mmos.






  • booniedog96booniedog96 Member UncommonPosts: 289
    edited August 2015
    fivoroth said:

    Is WoW going to be the last P2P MMO? It seems WoW is the only game that can make the P2P model work.

     

    ESO, B&S, Tera, FireFall, WildStar, Aion, L2, AOC, Rift, PS2, EQ2, EQ, LotRO, SW:TOR, Defiance, Trove, ArcheAge, TSW all have subscription models. The only difference is that a sub is optional, not required, and usually is accompanied with perks and/or boosts for your patronage.  The sub model is not going away, it's evolving.

    Cash shop?  The WoW & FFXIV country clubs have cash shops just like f2p games, those lines are blurred.  P2W?  Third party gold sellers, power levelers, and account traders have been around longer than the f2p model.  WoW is probably the worst when it comes to P2W in the MMORPG industry.

    But don't take it from me, take it from one of the Godfathers of the secondary market in the MMO industry.  This video was the last of a 13 part series of a guy who makes buku bucks monetizing on what many consider P2W.  It's quite informational, I recommend you check them all out.




    *This video was uploaded in 2010 and his forecast for the industry is very accurate.


  • scorpex-xscorpex-x Member RarePosts: 1,030
    The sub model is dead, the only games outside of WoW that retain them are ones that are shamed into retaining them.

    XIV is a prime example, that game is a money pit and as shown by the constant misleading numbers they are too ashamed to admit it's a failure.
  • syriinxsyriinx Member UncommonPosts: 1,383
    scorpex-x said:
    The sub model is dead, the only games outside of WoW that retain them are ones that are shamed into retaining them.

    XIV is a prime example, that game is a money pit and as shown by the constant misleading numbers they are too ashamed to admit it's a failure.
    Any post that tries to discredit FFXIV is pure garbage.

    The simple fact is that FFXIV is an extremely active game.  Lots of people have zero issues playing it.  Its the first AAA MMORPG in a LONG time to not see a significant decline in its first 2 years (I'm talking A Realm Reborn here obviously)

    If its recouping all the money SE put in it is a different story, 1.0 was abysmal so if they are still in the red its because they originally made a horrid game, not because of the model.


    Lets look at the last few major MMORPGs at launch:

    Guild Wars 2: B2P
    SWTOR: P2P
    Wildstar: P2P
    ESO: P2P
    FFXIV: P2P

    So over the last few years, 80% of AAA MMORPGs have launch as P2P.
    Of those that launched P2P AND received favorable response from the players, 100% are still P2P.  


  • syriinxsyriinx Member UncommonPosts: 1,383
    I forgot The Secret World.  So 5/6 have launched P2P,  I wouldnt count TERA as major, more of a niche import.  ArcheAge as well.  6/8 if you want to count those two.  

    The question is, how many more major MMORPGs will we actually see?
  • ArawulfArawulf Guest WriterMember UncommonPosts: 597
    edited August 2015
    So much of this subject comes down to defining our terms. Different MMO's call the same thing by different names. The majority of F2P games have subs, called Premium, Membership or VIP. They simply have removed the barriers and increased the restrictions of non-paying players. Or in the case of some games, like TESO, they have a box price AND a premium subscription. The point is, subscriptions aren't going anywhere, studios are just marketing them differently.
  • VesaviusVesavius Member RarePosts: 7,908
    Bascola said:

    What a silly question. Wow is by no means going to be the last one or the longest running.

    1. FFXI (13 Years, 2 years more than WoW)
    2. EvE Online (12 Years, 1 year longer than WoW)
    3. FFXIV (5 Years)
    Off the top of my head, you should do some research next time.
     

    And those good examples are even ignoring that even so called 'F2P' games are underpinned by subs.

    There are probably more subbing players in the MMORPG space than ever before.

    The last 'P2P' MMORPG can only be measured as gone when the sub dies, and it's a long long way off doing that. And that's not even counting the new wave of niche sub games that are starting to gestate.
  • jesteralwaysjesteralways Member RarePosts: 2,560
    fivoroth said:

    Is WoW going to be the last P2P MMO? It seems WoW is the only game that can make the P2P model work.

     

    ESO, B&S, Tera, FireFall, WildStar, Aion, L2, AOC, Rift, PS2, EQ2, EQ, LotRO, SW:TOR, Defiance, Trove, ArcheAge, TSW all have subscription models. The only difference is that a sub is optional, not required, and usually is accompanied with perks and/or boosts for your patronage.  The sub model is not going away, it's evolving.

    Cash shop?  The WoW & FFXIV country clubs have cash shops just like f2p games, those lines are blurred.  P2W?  Third party gold sellers, power levelers, and account traders have been around longer than the f2p model.  WoW is probably the worst when it comes to P2W in the MMORPG industry.

    But don't take it from me, take it from one of the Godfathers of the secondary market in the MMO industry.  This video was the last of a 13 part series of a guy who makes buku bucks monetizing on what many consider P2W.  It's quite informational, I recommend you check them all out.




    *This video was uploaded in 2010 and his forecast for the industry is very accurate.


    Nice link, seem like he has been in economic side of mmo market for quite long time. As for his comment regarding Runes of Magic, last time i played the game was 2012 and was only for like 1 month, it was horrible pay2win crap, Level 10 players killing level 60 in 1 hit with cash shop manastone boosted gears.

    Boobs are LIFE, Boobs are LOVE, Boobs are JUSTICE, Boobs are mankind's HOPES and DREAMS. People who complain about boobs have lost their humanity.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,852
    Again with this topic?
    In spite of the evidence that speaks against the concept?
  • TheocritusTheocritus Member LegendaryPosts: 9,379
    I think the OP probably worded his title wrong...of course there are going to be other P2P titles now and in the future.....The question is will any of them have the impact that WoW had?.....For some reason people get very upset over p2p....Never understood it.
  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,282
    Arazale said:
    Hybrid is a f2p game that also has the option for subscription for extra benefits like Tera or SWTOR or LOTRO. Every single person playing WoW even with the Token system, Blizzard is still making the same amount of $$. Because in order to use a token, someone has to have first bought the token.
    F2P + Sub is a game like RuneScape, you know one of the founders of F2P in the west. The exchange system you are describing was made popular in Eve, a P2P game. 

    Hybrids are any game that has multiple systems for monetization. It has no bearing on P2P/F2P as it does not change this in any way. Most games today are hybrids.
  • AlbatroesAlbatroes Member LegendaryPosts: 7,671
    FFXIV wont go f2p, and as we've seen SE would sooner let XI die vs go f2p
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