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The Death of the PC - 5 years?

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  • TheGoblinKingTheGoblinKing Member UncommonPosts: 208


    Originally posted by Rigamortis First off,  I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000 I bought at Radio Shack back in the late 80's.  I also studied the architecture of the 8088 / 8086 chip.  Since then....I have owned and built more PC's then I can remember.  On the weekends I listen to a guy on the radio who does a Tech Show.  He is very knowledgeable and I respect his opinion the majority of the time. However,  this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with.  He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years.  He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets".  Sure,  the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular.  However,  with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards,  there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die.  Thoughts? -Rig
     

    Before any technology is going to be minimized and condensed for a tablet its always going to be developed on a pc first.

    Cutting edge technology will always be big before it's small, end of story.

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 6,157
    Originally posted by Boneserino
    Originally posted by laserit
    Originally posted by breadm1x

    Maby PC sales are down since everyone with half a brain is capable of putting together his own pc.

    Starts with a new vid card an before u know it they find out they dont have to spend 500 more on a pc that they can put together themselfs.

    Got about 8 or so in my neighburhood who came to me just for a new vid card.

    All 8 now have made the pc they wanted themselfs, that look and work how they want.

    Nomore buying a new pc when u just need a videocard.

    Some pc's are even artistic or a fashion statement nowdays.

    image

    image

    image

    Assembling a "Desktop" image these days, is a hell of a lot easier and less confusing than plugging in all the cables for my 7.1 Stereo system.

    Hehe, I will do your stereo, if you do my desktop.  image

    With stereo's and Computers, I've been a serious enthusiast for over 3 decades now. I'm being totally serious about a 7.1 stereo being harder to wire than assembling a PC

     

    The hard part about building computer's is being able to pick out the right components at the right price for your needs (I usually go overkill) and that's where poster's like Quizzical and Ridelynn are a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than I am.

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko Member EpicPosts: 6,910

    I don't believe the PC will disappear, but I do believe that it will become considerably more expensive.

     

    Most of the high-end components we use in current gaming PC's are subsidised to some extent by the vast amounts of low-spec components that are sold to home-users and business users. Once that market shrinks dramatically (and it will), then our shiny toys are going to shoot up in price.

     

    The new generation of consoles are basically PC's mass-produced to a standard spec. Many gamers will be forced into that direction as gaming-specific PC's eventually become too expensive for the average player.

     

    Who knows, maybe the gaming powerhouse of the future will be when we can simply link multiple consoles in parallel to act as a single device ? image

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 10,984
    Originally posted by Boneserino

    When you are talking "PC" here Phry, what you are really talking about is a modular design.   I mean everything is a "PC" in a way.   Consoles, tablets, phones are all PC's.

    PC's are modular in design, those modules are replaceable, consoles, tablets and phones are not however, modular in design, those modules are not replaceable, and the processors used in them are often reduced instruction set types to save on energy useage, they are not comparable to PC's, not yet, not even close. The strength of the PC is because it has those replaceable, or more precisely upgradeable modules, and until those other devices can at least match that functionality, then they cannot in all fairness be classed as being modular in design.

     

    So what we are talking about here is basically modular design, and the interface which is keyboard and mouse.   All the desktop adds to the gaming experience is ugradeability, and some might say an antiquated interface , since it has been around for some time as well.

    The PC's interface is one that has evolved with useage, to promote useability and functionality, to call it antiquated is more than a little disingenuous, PC's however support more than just keyboard and mouse interface devices, another feature that not only gives the PC more flexibility in terms of everyday useage, but an advantage that other 'devices' struggle to match.

     

    So a PC's big advantage is that you can make it as powerful as you like, depending on how much money you spend.   But what happens when people decide I am happy with the performance I have now.   Or.... a console is good enough me, PC games are a pain in the ass, and I enjoy my big screen.

    You could also say that the advantage of the PC is that you can make those kinds of decisions about when you are happy with the amount of 'power' you have, compared to handheld devices its not only cheaper to upgrade, but the ability to upgrade is always an option, the problem with devices like tablets and smartphones etc, is that once you find yourself in the position where you no longer have enough 'power' etc, you cannot upgrade, you can only throw away and buy a whole new device, thats not exactly a positive, or inexpensive feature.

     

    We all know what the cost of a high end graphic card is.  And also that said card will become cheap relatively quickly, because the next card will be out.   But if the market shrinks then costs will go up because of economies of scale.   Suddenly PC gaming becomes more and more expensive to keep up with.  Also the perceived performance improvements will be diminished.   Which will only increase the spiral of cost.   Eventually even mainstream PC gamers will start to wonder if it is worth or the trouble.  

    If the desktop market isn't growing there is a reason, and that reason is that society dictates demand.

    The fact that you can buy a good GPU, or a 'decent' older generation one for a reduced price because its been replaced, is not something that is going to disappear anytime soon, the point you raise about 'if the market shrinks costs go up' is one that has yet to materialise, you could very much say the same thing about the console/tablet/smartphone market, each has its own issues. That costs are clearly not spiralling, and mainstream PC gaming is as healthy as ever, that its just speculative scaremongering with zero factual basis, and yes, society creates demand, which is probably why PC hardware sales are so extensive, note i say PC hardware, not PC's, after all, you might want to consider just how many PC's actually are in use these days, last count was somewhere in the region of 2 billion... Nvidia and Amd are making a lot of GPU's for a very good reason, and oddly enough, they are too big to fit in a tablet or a smartphone, and way more powerful than the ones you find in consoles.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,269

    5 years? Probably a little soon but things are changing. Tech marches on: things are still getting cheaper, faster, smaller and more power efficient.

    The big engines for change at the moment are: tablets and televisions.

    • 2 years ago the talk about tablets was about whether they would ever take off - and then Google released its first Nexus. And when it comes to televisions ..... 105 inches, HID compliant connectivity (mice, keyboards), wifi, bluetooth, wireless sound is coming, quad core processors, internal memory, internal operating systems ...not there yet but in 5 years? 

    Question: what is a PC. What are we actually talking about?

    • In the 1960s, 70s and up to say 1980 the 400,000lb gorilla in the room was IBM. They made mainframes, terminals that attached to them everything that went with them. It was the time of IBM and the 7 dwarves. The dwarves being the next 7 companies whose market share collectively was tiny compared to IBM. And after them a few even smaller minnows - like HP say.
    • There were "PCs" in the 60s and 70s. And by 1980 there dozens of new kids on the block making things that didn't need to be connected to a central box that could run "stuff". Some consumer orientated machines and some aimed at businesses. The Commodore PET, first Apple Mac, the Sinclair ZX80, stuff from Attari, Sega ... and a host of other companies. And software started to be developed as well such as CPM and WordStar - which George R. Martin still uses. Cntl-B for bold ....
    • Ah those early machines, 10 (or 8) inch screens, no sound - maybe an internal beep, no mouse, no wi-fi, no hard disk, no motherboards, no colour  ....
    • Running stuff that ran on one machine on a different machine though ... good luck with that.
    • And then in 1981 IBM released the IBM PC. Other companies took note: it was the 400,000lb gorilla. It set "a standard" of sorts. And - somewhat accidentally - we got "open" standards that led to what we have today. And one of the earliest tests for PC compatibility was:
    Something that could run MS Flight Simulator. 
    • Through a series of historical "accidents" and "fallout" (IMB DOS vs. MS-DOS for example)  awe ended up with what we have. Driven largely by the need to get things to work together which created "Wintel". The foundation on which PCs have been built. 
    • As time past IBM lost its dominance. The dwarves were taken over or changed. The new kids on the block - well Sony and Apple are still players. 
    Today the Wintel foundation on which the PC we are talking about is crumbling but what of future standards?
    • Laptops? Pretty easy to see them being replaced by a large tablet + standalone keyboard. A tablet probably running Android though = fewer Windows sales. 
    • Businesses? Different needs but financially they are increasingly looking to open source stuff, Linux etc. as long as that gives them the security and reliability they need. The likes of EA and Activision tend not to sell them many games however .... 
    The big battle today is between Google/Android and TV manufacturers. 
    • TV manufacturers (largely) adopted Android for phones and having seen the result are less keen to do the same with TVs. Everyone wants to own the shopping portal.
    • Game developers would like to but what they need is a defined system to run their products on. Releasing a game and getting a barrage of complaints about it not running on an AMD card X or whatever - not good. Consoles look very attractive from that stand point but in the future:
    • Consoles need TVs but will TVs need consoles? Or Steam boxes. Or ....
    A TV; a tablet or phone and optionally a wireless sound system and standalone keyboard - that is what we are moving towards. What will the operating system be though? Microsoft are still a player - but to what end? XBLive (and PSN) may have a place at the table. For if there are no games to play on our all singing, all dancing PCs and all we can do is watch movies ... will it still be a PC?
  • Nightbringe1Nightbringe1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,335
    Originally posted by Quizzical

    Some people use a computer to do real work, not just simple web browsing.  For those people, a desktop will always be superior because of the form factor, even if you could match the price and performance in a tablet--which will probably never happen.  Multiple large monitors, a full-sized, wired keyboard that can be positioned independently of the monitors, and a wired, laser mouse all greatly increase productivity over anything that you can do on a tablet.

    A windows tablet with mini HDMI port and a single USB port already allows this, with the ability to unplug and take the tablet with you.

    PC's will continue for decades, but may well be relegated to a series of niche markets for those demanding high performance machines. 

    Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do.
    Benjamin Franklin

  • RhoklawRhoklaw Member EpicPosts: 6,525
    My Network Security class professor has been saying the same thing. That PC's won't exist anymore in 5 years and I've argued with him about that, specifically about the gaming industry. If it was easy to transition from PC to console, than yes, I would agree, but I honestly can't stand game controllers myself. I have to have a keyboard and mouse. Even though consoles are cheap for the power they provide and the ease of use, they are pretty much proprietary machines and not easily upgraded without causing a bit of hassle. I think PC's will change, but I don't believe they will become nonexistent any time soon.

  • KilrainKilrain Member RarePosts: 1,178
    Originally posted by Rigamortis

    First off,  I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000 I bought at Radio Shack back in the late 80's.  I also studied the architecture of the 8088 / 8086 chip.  Since then....I have owned and built more PC's then I can remember.  On the weekends I listen to a guy on the radio who does a Tech Show.  He is very knowledgeable and I respect his opinion the majority of the time.

    However,  this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with.  He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years.  He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets".  Sure,  the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular.  However,  with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards,  there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die.  Thoughts?

    -Rig

    The part of this particular statement that makes it viable is, "the way we know it". Claiming that all PC's will be of the tablet variety is possibly bit bold however. People need to remember that while laptops and tablets are becoming more and more powerful every year, desktops (the "PC" that I believe he is referring to) will always have the advantage of available space and cooling that allow for much more power capabilities.

    When laptops and tablets finally generate enough power that software can't keep up (good luck with that), then we will see the decline of desktops. Until then, no way. 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910

    I'm sure Quizzical has piped in on this, but as long as there is a need for 'more power' than what tablets or laptops provide, there will be desktop computers.  So as long as game developers can sell games by pushing the limits of what desktop hardware can do with resolution, texture size, etc., desktops will always have a home in gaming.

     

    I think the next generation of computer users will be much more used to tablets, so general purpose devices may move much more to being laptops instead of desktops, but there is always going to be a segment of people who want more, and it doesn't look like PC gaming is going to slow down any time soon on giving people what they want.

     

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • holyneoholyneo Member UncommonPosts: 154
    My first comp was a vic20 commodore64 and I don't see computer going away.  I think the main reason PC sales have declined is because of economy. It cheaper to get a PS4/Xbox/Tablet than to purchase a nice computer.  Not talking about building one, there are 2 types of computer users. The novice users won't build there own.  People like me that builds their own computer/upgrade, have slowed down on buying new parts because of not having the money I use to make, as well as prices and how frequent new products roll out. That's my 2 cents.
  • logicbomb82logicbomb82 Member UncommonPosts: 225
    The Oculus Rift is going to bring PC gaming up a notch, it's not going to convert people from consoles to PC's but it will sure make them jealous until the console version of it is released.  PC gaming will never be as popular as consoles gaming is because people just want to sit on the couch and play on there big screen with a controller, it's easy and reliable. With that said some people want to play indie games,  MMORPG's, use mods, get cool things like the Oculus Rift, etc. PC gaming is never going to go away too many nerds like myself who prefer PC for gaming. 

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  • CoNk3rCoNk3r Member UncommonPosts: 70
    Originally posted by Krimzin

    Will never happen.

    Agree!

    Originally posted by Krimzin

    PC Gaming will evolve...

    Disagree. F2P can´t evolve... what´s free remains free.  The PC market is saturated quite a bit (thanks to the F2P mentality). nothing will happen but for one thing :

    - the anual (recycled, assets :cough: far cry 4: cough) gameiteration of creed, live, fifa etc.. will never vanish.

    - better hardware/console to play´em

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 11,687


    Originally posted by pappacubeFor way more than 10 years there has been all kinds of effort in going to a thin client which would still be some sort of a low powered PC.  but i really haven't seen much success.  I just know where there's a will  there's a way and businesses have a desperate need to trim down the costs of the employees workstations.

    The main advantage of thin client isn't the cost but security and management.

    And that is why it is not that wide spread but used only for specific purposes where high security is required.

    All the reasons posted in the thread so far are naive, taking the very biased, limited perception of particular poster - PC will be alive due gaming, due technical superiority of contemporary comuters, etc. All are off.


    I cannot tell whether tablets or some hybrids replace desktops but I am quite sceptical about that. Imo, desktops won't be replaced with tablets for very same reasons they weren't replaced by laptops.

    Laptop nor tablet offer any advantage for the most common use of PC - ordinary office work. Tablets are fine toys for managers but all those subordinates will keep using desktops, and there is way more subordinates and regular workers than there are managers.


    Laptops and tablets are very cheap these days, yet all but managers are using desktops. There is simply no point, desktop is still the best for the purpose.

  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,185

    The PC is not going to die until there is something to replace it. The PC is still going strong, and is in fact killing off the competition. Let me give you some examples.

     

    The PS4 and XBOne are both PC hardware, with a custom OS. The latest generation has abandoned proprietary hardware (i.e. its own platform) in favor of PC hardware due to the economics involved. The same thing happened a few years back with Mac's when they adopted PC standard hardware. These are but two examples of 'competing' platforms that have been killed off by the PC.

     

    Tablets are likely to follow this path as well, as they become more powerful, and the cost of proprietary hardware becomes more of a burden. Mobile devices are not likely to succumb as quickly, as the small size, and lower power requirements allows for custom hardware to surpass that of a PC (in the same form factor).

  • NanfoodleNanfoodle Member EpicPosts: 7,740
    Next big change to PC's wont happen till server farms become a reality. The backbone of the internet needs to cover more of the world before this happens. Sure there are some area in the world that are hardwired into some fast speeds but even then in the middle of that you have apartments that are stuck with cable or phone style internet.  One day most people will only use thin clients and pay a monthly fee for server farm access. But we are a ways away from that killing the PC market. 



  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,966
    Originally posted by Nightbringe1
    Originally posted by Quizzical

    Some people use a computer to do real work, not just simple web browsing.  For those people, a desktop will always be superior because of the form factor, even if you could match the price and performance in a tablet--which will probably never happen.  Multiple large monitors, a full-sized, wired keyboard that can be positioned independently of the monitors, and a wired, laser mouse all greatly increase productivity over anything that you can do on a tablet.

    A windows tablet with mini HDMI port and a single USB port already allows this, with the ability to unplug and take the tablet with you.

    PC's will continue for decades, but may well be relegated to a series of niche markets for those demanding high performance machines. 

    It's not just about performance, though there is still quite a chasm between tablets and desktops.  Even if tablets had the same price, performance, reliability (desktops don't get dropped on the ground), and battery life (which for a desktop, is effectively infinite), I'd still need a desktop, both at home and at work.

    I've got 12 things plugged into my home desktop right now.  You can't do that with a tablet.  Even if that were the only option, the way I'd use it as my primary computer would basically be to make it a desktop that came in a very small case that had a small, built-in monitor that was left unused.  I need a full-size, wired keyboard.  I need a wired, laser mouse.  I need multiple monitors.  Indeed, more monitors is the reason I'll probably replace this desktop next year--and I already have two.

    For most purposes, laptops do now have plenty of CPU and GPU performance.  But laptop keyboards mostly range from mediocre to awful, a trackpad is no substitute for a mouse, the monitor can't be placed independently of the keyboard, and they only come with one monitor.  Laptops often have a number of ports, but typically not enough to plug in everything you want and use it like a proper desktop.  That's why I still need a desktop.  A laptop is not a viable substitute precisely because of the form factor, except for occasional use when traveling and a desktop isn't possible.

  • NightHaveNNightHaveN Member UncommonPosts: 1,051

    Can you develop applications or games with a only a tablet (or phone) without any help from a foreign Mac, Windows or Linux machine?

     

    As long as the answer for that question is a no, then PC is not going anywhere.

     

    But the amount of PC's sold and the size of the market definitely will shrink.  My bet is that it will end  like in the 80's, where people had a computer because of their job needs, and not because of the Internet.

     

    Also, not only the personal computer is going anywhere, but neither Windows, Mac OS, or Linux will.  Again until that answer becomes a yes.  The day Android became self hosting, and allow people to develop any kind of application, including its own OS from itself, then I may said that day the PC era is over.

  • sumdumguy1sumdumguy1 Member RarePosts: 1,282
    I remember a similar topic five years ago when the Sony PS3 and Xbox 360 came out. PC users will always have a place because the PC will evolve. I believe you will eventually see most things interacting together.  
  • daltaniousdaltanious Member UncommonPosts: 2,381
    Originally posted by Rigamortis

    ...

    However,  this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with.  He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years.  He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets".  Sure,  the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular.  However,  with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards,  there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die.  Thoughts?

    -Rig

    If I would own some company or shop would be for sure interested in this guy name. To make sure he never get job. :-) Wondering if this same guy 10 years ago was advertising in 2014 Windows will be dead and Linux will be everywhere. :-)

    Obviously this guy does not know his "tablets" are actually dieing pretty fast as they are barely usable. They can not even remotely replace PC (but notebooks with removable touch screens are great addition). And they are actually replaced very fast by new generations of phones with bigger screens.

  • Solar_ProphetSolar_Prophet Member RarePosts: 1,945
    Dead? Nah. Mainstream computing might move primarily into tablets and such, but enthusiasts will always have their tweaked-out desktop PCs. While not gigantic, the market for them is far too large to disappear, especially within a relatively short period of time like five years.

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  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 10,984
    Originally posted by Solar_Prophet
    Dead? Nah. Mainstream computing might move primarily into tablets and such, but enthusiasts will always have their tweaked-out desktop PCs. While not gigantic, the market for them is far too large to disappear, especially within a relatively short period of time like five years.

    Really? far more likely that Tablets will disappear within that time frame, as mobile (smart phones) are often preferable to them, and tablets are not a replacement for a laptop, and as Microsoft discovered to their cost, hybrid tablets/laptops are not really all that popular either, though after losing several billions of dollars on the things its a lesson their struggling to accept. Smart phones will remain, tablets probably won't, on the other hand, Laptops and PC desktops will continue to thrive.image

  • deniterdeniter Member RarePosts: 1,344

    Hah! PC-gaming is a step forward and mobile platforms things from the past. Why would i want to go back to small and fuzzy screens when i can play games on 32" flat screen and use keyboard + mouse?

    We used to play mobile games in early 80's. I'm fine with what we have now.

    Mobile games are a good way to pass time f .ex. in train, but as a gamer i can't see how they could ever replace PC or consoles as a main platform for my hobby.

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 11,687


    Originally posted by Phry

    and as Microsoft discovered to their cost, hybrid tablets/laptops are not really all that popular either, though after losing several billions of dollars on the things

    ..what is that supposed to mean?

  • OziiusOziius Member UncommonPosts: 1,405
    Originally posted by echolynfan
    Originally posted by Scott23
    Originally posted by Quizzical

    Here we go again.  This has been rehashed many times, and the reasons why the people claiming that PCs are going to die off are completely clueless haven't changed.

    Some people want high performance, such as to play games.  For them, tablets will not be a serious alternative to desktops in the foreseeable future.  The only way tablets ever could be a serious alternative is if some revolutionary change to technology made performance no longer scale with power consumption.

    Some people use a computer to do real work, not just simple web browsing.  For those people, a desktop will always be superior because of the form factor, even if you could match the price and performance in a tablet--which will probably never happen.  Multiple large monitors, a full-sized, wired keyboard that can be positioned independently of the monitors, and a wired, laser mouse all greatly increase productivity over anything that you can do on a tablet.

    But the biggest reason that PC sales have been falling is one that tablet enthusiasts tend to ignore:  PCs last longer--and in particular, last longer than they did 10 or 15 years ago.  If you used to replace your PC every 3 years and now do so every 5 years, you've just reduced your PC purchases by 40%--even though you use the PC just as much as you did before.

    Tablets, by contrast, have much shorter life expectancies.  A large fraction of the new desktops purchased today will still be in service five years from now.  Most tablets purchased today will be discarded, abandoned, or dead entirely in five years.

    Very good points across the board.

    Agreed!

    There are some OK points, but positioning? Really? Thereally are/ will benjoy more large screen laptop replacement style tablets on the market, and you can already link screens together for multi-screen work. My secretary has two windows tablets with a full size Bluetooth keyboard and mouse at our office. You people keep talking about power consumption,  but the tablets are plugged in all the time at her desk... just like the old tower was. She takes one home everyday in case of after hour emergencies. It's great. 

  • LucziferLuczifer Member UncommonPosts: 155

    Death of PC - YES.  But not in 5 yrs. I rose up with PC-s Amiga 500 being my first.

    286, 386, 486 and every Pentium or AMD later depending which is faster.

    And still - running on i7-4790K with GTX 970 and behind 30" 2560x1600 screen I see...

    some upgrades. No, not to tablets, yeah to 4K screens and more powerful PCs.

    I hate lil keyhole screens, I hate touching with my big tumb fingers screen.

    Yes, for me PC is dead when my tablet/smartphone is connected directly to my nervous system,

    I see thru my eyes what unic VR setting I am in and that miniature device is really solved problem

    that most of energy we used in computing is going to heat.

    May be quantum computers make this deal? May be they are introduced after 5 years?

    But I still don't see any technology that could offer such immersive adaptation of world to our sensors.

    And as gamer for soon 30 years I can say I never change my seat to lockhole to play stupid games.

    Real gamers/MMOers stay behind PCs as all real work doers. 

    Imagine architector making his work by fingers on 8" screen? I can't cuz I know so many of them :)

    And had sold so many good powerful PCs to them.

    So for me is it: who calls PC dead are farmville/Facebook ppl and good with them.

    Real Players stay still and stay still years behind PCs.

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