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The Death of the PC - 5 years?

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  • R.LimaR.Lima Member UncommonPosts: 135
    I also believe that proclaiming the outright death of the PC in the next five years is a gross mistake for reasons others like Quizzical have already stated. This statement, however, may become a reality in your average household, where I believe most people make use of electronics in a more casual manner. In my father's house, for instance, no one uses a computer or a laptop anymore. They mostly resort to an iPhone or an iPad to do things like internet browsing, texting, playing casual games, etc.
  • IGaveUpIGaveUp Member Posts: 273

    The closest to the death of PC, that I see, is that tablets will become more like PCs.

     

    Where's the swappable CPU, RAM, GPU, HD, optical storage?

     

    For now, to my knowledge there isn't any.  If they eventually get them, all we have is a portable all-in-one computer (think iMac) with touchscreen UI rather than keyboard mouse.  Add keyboard and mouse (or other pointing device) that's attached all the time and you've got a laptop.

     

    It's not just a matter of performance.  Tablets don't have the functionality (yet).  Where's the dockable blu-ray burner?

     

    For tablets to kill PCs, they'll have to become PCs.

     

    Just my thoughts on this.

     

  • ArndushArndush Member Posts: 303
    If I had a nickle for every time I've heard or read someone predict the death of PCs in X amount of years...I'd have a shit load of nickels.
  • TheBigDRCTheBigDRC Member Posts: 162
    Considering folks like that have been claiming PC's death for 10 years . . . Yeah, no.

    You know what's fun about chaos? I do, but I won't tell.

  • asmkm22asmkm22 Member Posts: 1,788
    Originally posted by pappacube
    Originally posted by asmkm22

    People making blanket statements like "the PC will be dead in X years" should be shot.  When they claim things like that, they usually do so with very specific demographics in mind.  In this case, it's very possible that the PC will be dead in 5 years, for the "casual PC user" demographic.  You know, the people who just check email, facebook, and play a couple of browser games.

    What they aren't considering is the fact that the PC market still consists primarily of Business and Enterprise users.  People *work* on computers, and that is not going to change any time soon.

     

    For way more than 10 years there has been all kinds of effort in going to a thin client which would still be some sort of a low powered PC.  but i really haven't seen much success.  I just know where there's a will  there's a way and businesses have a desperate need to trim down the costs of the employees workstations.

    I don't know.  I deal with a wide variety of small and mid-sized businesses (up to about 200 employees each), and none are particularly concerned about the cost of PC's when compared to the cost of everything else needed to support them (servers, switches, routers, licenses, SAN's, etc).

    The main reason is that it's a known cost, and gets factored into the business expenses.  It's not like when an average person goes to buy a computer, and needs to consider their savings account, or credit limit, or repayment ability, or whatever.  Plus, computers become tax write-offs (depreciated over several years), which further offsets their costs.

    Of course, all of this only applies to businesses that are budgeted and operated well.

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  • VelocinoxVelocinox Member UncommonPosts: 1,010

    Where's the mainframe?

     

    'Sandbox MMO' is a PTSD trigger word for anyone who has the experience to know that anonymous players invariably use a 'sandbox' in the same manner a housecat does.


    When your head is stuck in the sand, your ass becomes the only recognizable part of you.


    No game is more fun than the one you can't play, and no game is more boring than one which you've become familiar.


    How to become a millionaire:
    Start with a billion dollars and make an MMO.

  • DeathmachinePTDeathmachinePT Member UncommonPosts: 119

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

     

    But no in 5 Years PCs will be much around and AFAIK PC users have been increasing in this last years.

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  • VelocinoxVelocinox Member UncommonPosts: 1,010
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    That's a mainframe.

    'Sandbox MMO' is a PTSD trigger word for anyone who has the experience to know that anonymous players invariably use a 'sandbox' in the same manner a housecat does.


    When your head is stuck in the sand, your ass becomes the only recognizable part of you.


    No game is more fun than the one you can't play, and no game is more boring than one which you've become familiar.


    How to become a millionaire:
    Start with a billion dollars and make an MMO.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] UncommonPosts: 0
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  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359

    The experience of PC gaming is not going anywhere in the foreseeable future even if the actual hardware behind it changes.  What I don't think people get is that so long as there is a strong demand for something, people are going to supply it.  And there are several things that differentiate PC gaming from console/mobile gaming that just aren't going to be satisfied by the modern concept of the tablet.  For example, PC gaming provides games that have the following attributes...

    1.  High fidelity and high production value

    2.  Highly customizeable with user generated content.

    3.  Distinct genres like RTS, PC style RPGs, MMORPGs, and MOBAs, that aren't on many other platforms

    4.  Keyboard and mouse control.

    5.  Several exclusives...of all the major platforms I think PC probably has the most high quality exclusives.  Most console games seem to be cross platform now.

    My point is that demand for the features above has to be satisfied by "something."  So even if the PCs of the future are the size of tablets, PC gaming itself, still won't really change.  You will hook that super tablet up to a big monitor or VR device, and a keyboard and mouse then proceed to game away just like it was one of the big towers of the "past."

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  • asmkm22asmkm22 Member Posts: 1,788
    Originally posted by Velocinox
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    That's a mainframe.

    I know, right?  I think it's hilarious to see history making this cycle.

    You make me like charity

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by asmkm22
    Originally posted by Velocinox
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    That's a mainframe.

    I know, right?  I think it's hilarious to see history making this cycle.

    The worst part is all of this cloud crap is the ridiculous marketing behind something that has been around for years and years.  All of a sudden dedicated servers become "ze power of ze cloud!!!!!!!" now that big companies like MS realize there is money to be made.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • HanthosHanthos Member UncommonPosts: 242
    Originally posted by atziluth

    You can already see the shift happening with cross platform gaming. That is just a stop gap for the transition... as PC sales shrink, tech shrinks, and other platforms/peripherals continue to grow companies will drop the least revenue generating avenues. What we know as a desktop PC today will be one of them.

    That is not to say MMO/online/PC gaming is dead... Think on this, the top tier smartphones now hold enough CPU and memory to run a 100 zone EQ1 server. 

    What we will start seeing is developers moving peripherals to the next gen and PCs morphing into tablets that blow by everything we have in a big box today. Google Glass/Oculus Rift are just a few examples into that area. Controls are getting better and allowing more freedom. In many ways we are on another cusp of innovation... 

    1980 - 1GHz PCs were science fiction.

    1990 - High definition tablets were science fiction

    2000 - Smart phones were science fiction

    Just imagine, what we think is science fiction today will be widely used reality in a decade. 

    The PC is going to die because it is quickly becoming obsolete... gaming as we know it will adapt and bring even better things moving forward. 

     

    Haven't we been hearing this same argument for oh, I don't know, 10 years at least? The reports of the death of the PC have been greatly exaggerated...

  • cnutempcnutemp Member UncommonPosts: 230

    Will tablets replace PCs?  Its very possible.  Just a few more breakthroughs and we may no longer see desktops in our homes in the next 10-15 years

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-20/scientists-take-graphene-to-the-next-level

    Who needs a graphics card when you have a quad core 427Ghz processor.

  • DeivosDeivos Member EpicPosts: 3,692
    Originally posted by cnutemp

    Will tablets replace PCs?  Its very possible.  Just a few more breakthroughs and we may no longer see desktops in our homes in the next 10-15 years

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-20/scientists-take-graphene-to-the-next-level

    Who needs a graphics card when you have a quad core 427Ghz processor.

    People who want more.

     

    We don't buy top end graphics cards to play the same game tablets and consoles play, we buy the hardware we do because we want to see what the newest and most intensive things out there are, and just how far we can tweak and improve over the standard.

     

    Take the Elder Scrolls games for example. Year after next that series is designed to a performance standard to take advantage of the new standards for technology. Year after next, we have those that take said titles on the PC and multiply the visual fidelity, content, and consequently processing cost of the title until the average person's computer would explode at the notion of running the game any longer.

     

    This isn't an isolated condition within PC gaming. There are genres that constantly expand with potential, and new forms of gaming unveiled by the increase in processing power new hardware provides. Minecraft and voxels came back when the potential for more and faster memory came up again, enabling the ability to more easily catalogue massive amounts of environmental data that goes into real-time environment emulation. Yet even now, such tech is far from it's potential capacity, and it faces many shortcomings still from the power limitations of present hardware. We still need more and faster tech to be able to more properly emulate the environments. Much more massive amounts of rapidly callable memory to flesh out a seamless degree of detail. Beyond that there is every step we can make until digital space is truly another world.

     

    There will never be a point where more power is not in demand.

    Consequently, there will never be a point where graphics hardware and PC platforms simply die out.

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  • NitthNitth Member UncommonPosts: 3,904


    Originally posted by Flyte27

    Originally posted by atziluth You can already see the shift happening with cross platform gaming. That is just a stop gap for the transition... as PC sales shrink, tech shrinks, and other platforms/peripherals continue to grow companies will drop the least revenue generating avenues. What we know as a desktop PC today will be one of them. That is not to say MMO/online/PC gaming is dead... Think on this, the top tier smartphones now hold enough CPU and memory to run a 100 zone EQ1 server.  What we will start seeing is developers moving peripherals to the next gen and PCs morphing into tablets that blow by everything we have in a big box today. Google Glass/Oculus Rift are just a few examples into that area. Controls are getting better and allowing more freedom. In many ways we are on another cusp of innovation...  1980 - 1GHz PCs were science fiction. 1990 - High definition tablets were science fiction 2000 - Smart phones were science fiction Just imagine, what we think is science fiction today will be widely used reality in a decade.  The PC is going to die because it is quickly becoming obsolete... gaming as we know it will adapt and bring even better things moving forward.   
    For some reason I doubt you smartphone could run a Everquest server.  There is just to much data to process and way to many connections.  I don't think it would even come close.  I could be wrong though.

    I can tell you for a fact that they have run UO servers off a smart phone. There is a video of 'them' claiming so.

    I really don't think that there would be that much more data in comparison for EQ.

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  • IchmenIchmen Member UncommonPosts: 1,228

    HAHAHA i would literally pay someone 50 bucks to play HD skyrim with a whole shit ton of mods and graphic overhauls on a tablet or smart phone.... 

     

    if anything pcs will become smaller and more compact, they wont die out as they have been around since the late 40's in some form. so what if anything we will see is the "death" of the  really huge systems and creation of the smaller more powerful systems that are like the steam box kinda thing. 

    super small system but super powerful. (just an example of where i see pc builds going)

    i dont forsee tablet/phone/ect replacing pcs at all as they are generally not built for it.  like early laptops they are more of a "in" kinda thing for people on the go more then something you buy randomly to play the newest WoW on. 

     

    though it doesnt stop some so called "know it all" from claiming the new Iphone 2438973485345894 will replace an I7 4770k for high end/hard core gaming....

    its just one of those "sure buddy and heres the deed to my summer cottage in the Antarctic"

  • zekeofevzekeofev Member UncommonPosts: 240
    TV and broadcast television will die before PCs do.
  • MamasGunMamasGun Member Posts: 152
    Originally posted by greenreen

    Web Developer by trade and no, I don't see it happening.

    Someone asked me recently about getting an ipad to replace their computer. I told them it was a bad idea. Once I started talking about how they would have to find apps to replace all the programs they had on CD they gave up on the plan.

    A PC without the internet is still worth something. Why settle for a device that is practically worthless without the internet.

    Those portable devices just sell more because they are a vanity item since people see you with them. They are like new clothes. Many people don't wear out clothes before they buy new ones. Same with desktop computers, behind closed doors and offices there are plenty of older computers running.

    Trust me on this, I see browser statistics all the time. Mobile is not very big on most of our sites. Mobile is high for social media but company websites and the like - honestly - if you make an app - you are wasting money unless it's a way for people to pay you. Deep information searches also aren't mobile friendly. Comparison shopping is where mobile gains share but most of the shopping is from the big sites so don't expect to get ahead selling specialty cookies or ebay items.

    It is getting harder to find standard non wireless modems - that's true but I wouldn't be concerned about the PC itself. The push to try to get you to buy wi-fi devices though is large. Why not make you buy something that you will replace yearly or so. It just makes them more money and having those juicy signals in the air instead of being corded - oh Google just loves that. They already got caught sniffing wireless networks with their cars that drive themselves.

     

     

     

    Wow... I... wow.... This is some real sh!t.  So good, it beared repeating.

    PC gaming ain't dead.  Proof?  The Xbone/Ps keep getting closer and closer to being PC's without ever offering the choice of being a PC.

     

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  • IGaveUpIGaveUp Member Posts: 273
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by asmkm22
    Originally posted by Velocinox
    Originally posted by DeathmachinePT

    Think the future might also include big computers that stream processing information to terminals for users, would solve a lot of problems if cloud computing keeps improving.

    That's a mainframe.

    I know, right?  I think it's hilarious to see history making this cycle.

    The worst part is all of this cloud crap is the ridiculous marketing behind something that has been around for years and years.  All of a sudden dedicated servers become "ze power of ze cloud!!!!!!!" now that big companies like MS realize there is money to be made.

     

    Download this free software, sign up for the service, and we'll turn your PC into a Thin Client.  :-)

     

    What a waste of computing power and bandwidth.

     

  • Flyte27Flyte27 Member RarePosts: 4,574
    Originally posted by Nitth

     


    Originally posted by Flyte27

    Originally posted by atziluth You can already see the shift happening with cross platform gaming. That is just a stop gap for the transition... as PC sales shrink, tech shrinks, and other platforms/peripherals continue to grow companies will drop the least revenue generating avenues. What we know as a desktop PC today will be one of them. That is not to say MMO/online/PC gaming is dead... Think on this, the top tier smartphones now hold enough CPU and memory to run a 100 zone EQ1 server.  What we will start seeing is developers moving peripherals to the next gen and PCs morphing into tablets that blow by everything we have in a big box today. Google Glass/Oculus Rift are just a few examples into that area. Controls are getting better and allowing more freedom. In many ways we are on another cusp of innovation...  1980 - 1GHz PCs were science fiction. 1990 - High definition tablets were science fiction 2000 - Smart phones were science fiction Just imagine, what we think is science fiction today will be widely used reality in a decade.  The PC is going to die because it is quickly becoming obsolete... gaming as we know it will adapt and bring even better things moving forward.   
    For some reason I doubt you smartphone could run a Everquest server.  There is just to much data to process and way to many connections.  I don't think it would even come close.  I could be wrong though.

     

    I can tell you for a fact that they have run UO servers off a smart phone. There is a video of 'them' claiming so.

    I really don't think that there would be that much more data in comparison for EQ.

    A video of them claiming so doesn't make it real, but it's possible.  I just don't believe arm CPUs are powerful.  They are a lot more simple in design then x86 CPUs.  This lets them generate less heat, but limits what they are capable of doing.  Usually they are just powerful enough to play some simple games.  As some posters have pointed out tablet is a lot like a thin client that existed a long time ago.  They aren't powerful enough to run anything to complicated.

  • VicDynamoVicDynamo Member Posts: 234
    My 16 and 13 year old prefer gaming on the PC. I don't see PC's going anywhere the next 10 years at least,  let alone 5.
  • GravargGravarg Member UncommonPosts: 3,423

    I like 24" display compared to ~9" display for my gaming :) 

     

    Or even better, I can wirelessly connect to a 85" TV and not have to look down to see what controls I'm using.

  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Originally posted by Rigamortis

    First off,  I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000

    Tandy 1000 SX!!!! Respect! 

     

    I think that 5 years might be a little generous. I work with some pretty intense graphics hardware, some of which doesn't even fit in a full-sized server rack. For gaming hardware, some cards are twice as big as a tablet! 

     

    I think that they've got some serious obstacles to overcome before we start talking about tablets being the new form factor of choice for gamers, nevermind not having any space for my fat fingers. That said, I'm actually pretty amazed with what you CAN get on a tablet these days. So, while I think that 5 yearsis bold, I can't help but think that day might actually come in my lifetime. 

    Crazkanuk

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  • olepiolepi Member UncommonPosts: 1,282

    "PC" is short for "Personal Computer". That is a computer that a person has that is dedicated to that person: it is his personal computer. A tablet is a PC, and so is a smart phone, really, and so is a game console. The difference is the form factor.

    What is not a PC is where the actual computer is not dedicated to the person, and is not owned by the person. Think "cloud" computing. In this case, what the person has is an access device, that is not the computer, but just a way to access the computer. The computer is not his personal computer.

    Will the "PC" go away in 5 years? Absolutely not. What will change is the form factor. You will still have a personal computer, with a processor, memory, input/output devices, graphics, network, etc. Companies like Intel and AMD have seen the market shift from a desktop form factor PC, to a tablet and hand-held form factor PC. As more and more functions are able to be run on smaller and smaller form factor PC's, you may see people running games on their desktops, tablets, phones, and even glasses, but still all a "PC".

    Will "cloud" style computing take over gaming? Where the computer is not local, not owned by the person? Perhaps, but not in 5 or even 10 years.

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