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My Prediction: The Game will have a reliable Fan-Base and will NOT go F2P

sludgebeardsludgebeard Member UncommonPosts: 788

Honestly too many people are enjoying the game internally for it to be a complete failure.

Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless. 

 

Unfortunately for the ones who want this game to fail, this isnt TOR Pt.2, this isnt Vanguard, this isnt Warhammer.

And despite the more logical and outspoken people like AngryJoe who have negative things to say about the game, almost all of those issues are with the pay-structure/PR which wont affect the games initial success only its furher success.

 

So basically what im getting at for the Doom-Gloomers, all you have left is the notion that the P2P model will fail, and if the game is good enough to warrent the price, then ESO is a success. Hell with all the negative PR its almost impossble for the game not to succedd at this point, because expectations are at an all time low for MMO's and ESO is JUST different enough to keep people interested.

 

End Prediction.

 

 

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Comments

  • jacker1991jacker1991 Member UncommonPosts: 191
  • azzamasinazzamasin Member UncommonPosts: 3,093
    If SWTOR taught us anything is that a reliable fanbase does not counteract a very mediocre game.

    Sandbox means open world, non-linear gaming PERIOD!

    Subscription Gaming, especially MMO gaming is a Cash grab bigger then the most P2W cash shop!

    Bring Back Exploration and lengthy progression times. RPG's have always been about the Journey not the destination!!!

    image

  • Octagon7711Octagon7711 Member LegendaryPosts: 8,822
    They said the same about SWTOR.  By charging $15 a month a lot of the fans blazed through the content then left.  

    "We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa      "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are."  SR Covey

  • RocknissRockniss Member Posts: 1,034

    One time i said, " What is the minimum number of subscribers a game needs to stay afloat?" 

    It just needs to keep making money, it doesnt have to break records, just make money.

    The minute it goes f2p if it does, is the minute they give up on it and move on.

    Modern business model

                 Step one : Box fee with sub

                 Step two : analyze subscribers vs cost of keeping game afloat vs potential cash grab of f2p transition

                 Step three : Patch game for cash shop and Fire entire dev team a week before f2p launch

                 Step four : go f2p a week later cash and grab like a greedy money hungry hellbound loser

                 Step five : sell off all assets and move on 

                 Step six : go to mmorg.com forums and look at all the whiny chumps complain about video games while you sip                          margaritas on the beach and party it up with 100's of super models.

  • IGaveUpIGaveUp Member Posts: 273

    I'm of the opinion that consolers will be critical in the success of TESO.  If they like it, mega-hit.  If not, I don't see PC players having big enough numbers to carry the game long term.

     

    Until the reviews address console player perspective, I don't think they mean much.

     

  • BloodDualityBloodDuality Member UncommonPosts: 404
    Even if this game was good enough for PC players to justify the cost, which changes greatly based on opinion. I won't say how I feel about the game because of the NDA, but I think it will be console players that end of making it go F2P. Everywhere I see this game mentioned on sites like IGN the console players put it down because of the fee. They are just too cheap and entitled to pay a sub for anything these days. Sad fact, but consoles will bring this game down, and I play on them from time to time as well.
  • We will see? If you end up enjoying the game, great. If not, you lost $60 bucks...

     

    On second thought, this is important business.

  • spizzspizz Member UncommonPosts: 1,971
    Originally posted by Octagon7711
    They said the same about SWTOR.  By charging $15 a month a lot of the fans blazed through the content then left.  

    The content and gamworld was already questionable before you blazed through all of it. People noticed that really quick.

    The quests were nice, but especially the gameworld was on rails and just lifeless. There was one map with an huge area, it was a desert where you could suddenly  "breath some fresh air" so narrowing was most of the gameworld.

    And the more open pvp area was a disaster, at the end they did close it and you did play mostly "Huttenball".

  • FearumFearum Member UncommonPosts: 1,175
    Originally posted by azzamasin
    If SWTOR taught us anything is that a reliable fanbase does not counteract a very mediocre game.

    Either do rave previews.

  • RocknissRockniss Member Posts: 1,034
    Originally posted by RealmLordsKen

    I'm of the opinion that consolers will be critical in the success of TESO.  If they like it, mega-hit.  If not, I don't see PC players having big enough numbers to carry the game long term.

     

    Until the reviews address console player perspective, I don't think they mean much.

     

    This game should be buy to play on the consoles,

    #1. It would reinvigorate console sales and that actually needed since MXsoft especially cant even give away the xb1 and the ps4 isn't much better.

    #2 if it were buy to play - it would take off like wildfire especially considering the minimal competition on the new consoles.

     

  • DamonVileDamonVile Member CommonPosts: 4,818
    Too many games have been fun and exciting till you hit level cap only to have the game end in dailies/raid/ or pointless pvp Until you know what it's really going to be like you can't predict what will happen.
  • FearumFearum Member UncommonPosts: 1,175
    Originally posted by Rockniss
    Originally posted by RealmLordsKen

    I'm of the opinion that consolers will be critical in the success of TESO.  If they like it, mega-hit.  If not, I don't see PC players having big enough numbers to carry the game long term.

     

    Until the reviews address console player perspective, I don't think they mean much.

     

    This game should be buy to play on the consoles,

    #1. It would reinvigorate console sales and that actually needed since MXsoft especially cant even give away the xb1 and the ps4 isn't much better.

    #2 if it were buy to play - it would take off like wildfire especially considering the minimal competition on the new consoles.

     

    I doubt it, they would have to have a cash shop to get more money or each month they put out content they would have to charge for it. They have a plan, its to put out content updates each month and treat the game like a premium service.

    We will see about that though but I think they might be able to pull it off since they have been planning it for some time, again we will see. By doing this they need a steady stream of income to keep a decent size team developing everyday plus all the other jobs that need to be filled to run a game like this.

    B2P is too dependent on a cash shop since after the initial purchase the only other cash they get is from crap in the crap shop and from wasting all their resource on holiday temporary updates to... sell more crap in the crap shop.

  • Originally posted by DamonVile
    Too many games have been fun and exciting till you hit level cap only to have the game end in dailies/raid/ or pointless pvp Until you know what it's really going to be like you can't predict what will happen.

    I don't think it's the endgame content that makes a MMO a success. Otherwise, what makes WoW's(successful MMO) raids/dailies/ pointless pvp any better than other MMOs that have since come and gone? The amount of each? The quality? What's ESO's endgame going to be like? Did they invent something new?

  • KhinRuniteKhinRunite Member Posts: 879
    It's really hard to believe in this game due to what happened with SWTOR. I'm still predicting F2P or B2P conversion after 2 years at most. It's not about the game's quality, but the market it's trying to go for is very volatile.
  • reeereeereeereee Member UncommonPosts: 1,636

    One of the main issues with this game is the into content level 1-9 is mediocre and Western gamers are notoriously quick to throw away games that don't immediately appeal to them no matter how awesome someone else claims the endgame is.  This isn't exactly some secret so I was fairly shocked at how boring nubisland was.

     

    If you notice SWTOR is making a ton more money as f2p than it did in subscription mode.  So the issue is not say:  will the game be able to turn a profit with 500k subscribers?

     

    But more: will the publishers be happy enough with the profits if there are only say 600-800k subscribers versus the amount of money they could make in f2p land?  It's not like they haven't already shown us they're comfortable pay gating content.

     

    I feel like a lot of people (like Angry Joe) look at the 1-9 experience and go:  what does this offer me for $15 a month that gw2 doesn't for free other than better voice acting?  and the answer is very little.  That's the problem in 2014, any game that wants to charge a subscription has to offer more than gw2.  Maybe the AvAvA will be mindblowing or the endgame PvE is worlds better than gw2 but of what we've been shown so far it's just not.

  • TokkenTokken Member RarePosts: 2,164

    It needs to go free to play. and I'm BUYING the game. Not sure a sub fits this game.

    Make PvE GREAT Again!
  • kilunkilun Member UncommonPosts: 742
    Originally posted by DamonVile
    Too many games have been fun and exciting till you hit level cap only to have the game end in dailies/raid/ or pointless pvp Until you know what it's really going to be like you can't predict what will happen.

    And there has been a game released that was different than this model?  I can take any game and get you to "cap" be it a soft or hard as in level and point to basically the same formula, just spewed out differently.  Games are all the same.  Just different skinned with different objectives.

  • RaventreeRaventree Member Posts: 456

    I suspect it will be P2P for a year or so and then go F2P, similar to SWToR.  That isn't necessarily a bad thing though, since the F2P transition gives the devs another shot at getting the game in front of people.  Don't forget some people will pay far more in the cash shops than a $15/month sub fee. 

    I am not crazy about full box price plus sub, but I will most likely buy it anyway.

    Currently playing:
    Rift
    Played:
    SWToR, Aion,EQ, Dark Age of Camelot
    World of Warcraft, AoC

  • MMOGamer71MMOGamer71 Member UncommonPosts: 1,969
    Server stress tests with a NDA ARE NOT reviews.
  • iridescenceiridescence Member UncommonPosts: 1,552
    Originally posted by ihaveabeard
     

    I don't think it's the endgame content that makes a MMO a success. Otherwise, what makes WoW's(successful MMO) raids/dailies/ pointless pvp any better than other MMOs that have since come and gone? The amount of each? The quality? What's ESO's endgame going to be like? Did they invent something new?

    WoW was the first one with that exact model and many people are heavily invested in their characters and guild there. They will not leave WoW to just play basically the same thing. This is why all WoW clones fail at least relative to what they are copying.

     

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 33,584
    Originally posted by kilun

    Originally posted by DamonVile
    Too many games have been fun and exciting till you hit level cap only to have the game end in dailies/raid/ or pointless pvp Until you know what it's really going to be like you can't predict what will happen.

    And there has been a game released that was different than this model?  I can take any game and get you to "cap" be it a soft or hard as in level and point to basically the same formula, just spewed out differently.  Games are all the same.  Just different skinned with different objectives.

     

    Yes in fact, see EVE, AC1, FFXI, SWG, SB, L1/L2 just to name a few. Never mistake the current modern themepark endgame design as the only possibility, they were and can be so much more.

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    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing POE at the moment.

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  • KnotwoodKnotwood Member CommonPosts: 1,103
    Originally posted by iridescence
    Originally posted by ihaveabeard
     

    I don't think it's the endgame content that makes a MMO a success. Otherwise, what makes WoW's(successful MMO) raids/dailies/ pointless pvp any better than other MMOs that have since come and gone? The amount of each? The quality? What's ESO's endgame going to be like? Did they invent something new?

    WoW was the first one with that exact model and many people are heavily invested in their characters and guild there. They will not leave WoW to just play basically the same thing. This is why all WoW clones fail at least relative to what they are copying.

     

    Keeping storylines and storytelling going far into end game is the success of this game, and I think a lot of WoW players are dying for a new MMO with new storytelling.

  • cronius77cronius77 Member UncommonPosts: 1,634

    Im one of those players that have picked up the imperial edition and enjoyed the game in the beta events the last few months. IM also a old school DAOC player whom can appreciate the tri realm vs realm and see tons of potential with it. DAOC was not some smash hit either compared to games of its time like EQ. But it held a large playerbase that enjoyed the pvp and the lore of DAOC. I even had some friends that never played any pvp at all in DAOC whom stuck to cear sidi raids and darkness falls, they still enjoyed the game a lot. 

    With that being said and NDA TESO fulfills my old school DAOC feel and Im pretty happy with what I saw. I think a lot of people who do not mind themeparks are going to enjoy this game in the end especially the skill system.

  • CoatedCoated Member UncommonPosts: 477

    It will go F2P at some point, when is up for debate.

    As for my prediction. The game will be F2P in less than a year regardless of whether it does well or not. The potential for the cash shop to flourish is dependent on the F2P crowd (unless you are like WOW with 6 million + subs). My understanding was that ESO already has the cash shop implemented. This game is going F2P and I feel bad for you thinking that it won't. I feel even worse for the people that hate F2P and are playing ESO because they think it's going to be a P2P game. It is actually a very sneaky move and a win/win to start off P2P then switch half way into F2P. The F2P crowd will be there no matter what, but a lot of the P2P crowd wouldn't touch ESO if it opened F2P. There is a lot better chance at keeping the P2P crowd people if they have already invested time into their character before switching to F2P.

    Again, the success of this game is irrelevant. It is going F2P because that is where the money is.

  • CantorageCantorage Member Posts: 186
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless

    Very assumptive, and most of all wrong.

    I'm a huge TES fan and a life long MMO gamer, so not only did I want to like this game, but I would have been extremely easy to please. However, this game is nothing but a cynical cash grab with a dubious at best connection to TES, terrible zone design to make the player waste time, junk writing and quests, a poor skill system, a trash UI, and everything else they've played safe.

     

    Unfortunately I wouldn't play TESO if it were completely free.

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