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Over the last 6-7 years the MMO community has witnessed some very successful initial launches.
Age of Conan
Each of them crashed and burned very fast. They shared many of the same qualities, namely:
1) Seriously easy leveling at the start;
2) Major leveling and end-game nerfs soon after;
3) Standard theme park designs;
4) Initial game queue issues; and
5) Major bugs that were exploited early.
FFXIV shares all of these "symptoms". FATEs are so ridiculously OP that many casual players are in their 30s and 40s and anyone remotely hardcore is already 50. Amdapor Keep just received a massive nerf of the exponential variety. Everyone already knows about the initial login headaches. Endgame dungeon exploits abound.
The attrition rates of the games above were approximately 90% in the first 6 months. FFXIV does not look to be in better shape.