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FFXIV player attrition: it is going to be bad.

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  • neorandomneorandom Member Posts: 1,681
    Originally posted by Nadia

    i think FF14 will do ok

     

    AOC felt like a "bait and switch" after leaving the starting area Tortage

    WAR was ok but I didnt think it was worth subbing to

    I didn't play SWTOR

    agreed, post tortage was aoc's downfall.  they gave you this totally awesome fully voiced starting area that told an epic story about YOU.  then you go out into the world to eq1 grade text bubbles and mundane tasks.  and despite that i still enjoyed the game until tier 2 raiding.  they were all broken and not fixed for like a year so i said F it and quit, and not even ftp can get me to try it again because they had their chance to fix the game and didnt.

     

    ff14 will have enough hard core fans too pay in to it to keep it going until they at least make back the money they spent making it, and remaking it.  which will probably take 5 years if they hit a million steady players, longer if not.

  • RaxeonRaxeon Member UncommonPosts: 2,250
    except yoshi said the game will survive wiht 500k subs easy
  • mcrippinsmcrippins Member RarePosts: 1,405
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Over the last 6-7 years the MMO community has witnessed some very successful initial launches.

    Age of Conan

    WAR

    SWTOR

    Each of them crashed and burned very fast.   They shared many of the same qualities, namely:

    1)  Seriously easy leveling at the start;

    Initial Leveling 1-20 should be pretty basic as there are new players coming a long. I agree it could be a bit more challenging in the later levels. Please see my end note for that perspective.

    2)  Major leveling and end-game nerfs soon after;

    Not sure what you mean by leveling and end-game nerfs. I've heard about the exploit they patched, but I didn't see it as a nerf.

    3)  Standard theme park designs; 

    Fairly typical for most MMOs - however they put a nice twist on certain things.

    4) Initial game queue issues; and

    This was definitely my only real problem I experienced while playing. I can say that after the first big maintenance they had - this was resolved. (For me at least).

    5) Major bugs that were exploited early.

    Played Neverwinter where this actually happened. I can't think of a single thing that has happened where #5 is true in FFXIV.

    FFXIV shares all of these "symptoms".  FATEs are so ridiculously OP that many casual players are in their 30s and 40s and anyone remotely hardcore is already 50.   Amdapor Keep just received a massive nerf of the exponential variety.  Everyone already knows about the initial login headaches.  Endgame dungeon exploits abound.  

    The attrition rates of the games above were approximately 90% in the first 6 months.  FFXIV does not look to be in better shape.

     

    I have to say I disagree with the overall review here. I think people look at this as a normal MMO in regards to leveling. I don't think the leveling from 1-50 is supposed to be hard. What will be a challenge for the time being is leveling 1-50 on multiple classes. Luckily they give you things like the Hunting Log/Fates/Leves to use, but other than that - eventually it's going to get tough. 

  • evilastroevilastro Member Posts: 4,270
    Originally posted by Bigmamajama
    Originally posted by Mannish
    Originally posted by Nadia

    i think FF14 will do ok

     

    AOC felt like a "bait and switch" after leaving the starting area Tortage

    WAR was ok but I didnt think it was worth subbing to

    I didn't play SWTOR

     

     

    I feel that this is going to be the same for Final Fantasy XIV if they don't do something. At the moment its a good game but not really worth subbing to. My hope is that they listen to the players and open this game up with new content.

    Disclaimer: This is just my opinion

    So you think there is only 29 bucks worth of content that's been made and can all be consumed within 30 days?   You cant be serious can you.

    Far less values worth of content if you ask me. I paid $3 for FFXIV in the bargain bin for 1.0, got my 2 weeks in 2.0 for being a legacy, saw everything I needed to in that time. Nothing here worth spending another $12 on.

  • Jerek_Jerek_ Member Posts: 409

    I know that at least WAR and SWTOR both handled their initial rush by adding a bunch of servers so that people would quit crying about the login waits, then were slow to merge them once the population settled probably out of fear of bad press.  I don't remember if AOC did that also or not.  But I think understanding that the high population levels MMO's hit in the very beginning aren't long term and planning your servers around that fact is important for the health of the game when it levels out.

    Those three games also have something else in common-  they were just subpar games.  WAR and SWTOR are both (imo) poor WoW clones that suffer from long lists of defects.  SWTOR's likely can't be fixed because of the fundamental nature of some key issues and I don't know that anyone ever really tried to save WAR.  AOC had so little appeal for me personally that even though I tried to get into it twice I can't remember much about it, so maybe that says it all right there.

    Your list may have contributed to the crash of those 3 games, but in each case there was a lot more to it than just that.  If FF14 turns out not to have the major flaws of those other 3 games, I don't think your list would bring it down.  And if it is similarly flawed like WAR and SWTOR, its screwed no matter what.  People just won't stick with crap games.  My experience so far is that its a higher quality experience than any of those 3- with all three of those games I had bad impressions right off the bat and they only got stronger over time.  If I was going to compare it to a game it would be Rift, although FF is more my style than Rift was, but both made decent first impressions.

  • AmegashieAmegashie Member UncommonPosts: 289

    Obviously the game will lose a lot of players once the free month and maybe another one are up, that's just the nature of the beast with MMORPGs in general and sub based ones in particular. FF 14 is polished enough to keep a healthy number of people playing for a while longer though, so the doomsayers will have to be patient.

     

    What will determine the success of the game in the long run will be SE's ability to broaden the appeal to more than just 24/7 raiders, because, let's face it, the combat system is just way too bad to keep those occupied for long and what we've seen so far the encounters aren't all that either. Some stuff, like housing and some form of PvP, has already been announced, we'll see when and in what quality it will actually make it into the game.

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039

    Notice how fans keep mentioning... game is new, yes it is incomplete..more is still to come..reminds you of any other MMOS? yes every other themepark MMO in past which fell flat on its face after couple of months.

    To release a P2P MMO in 2013 with similar shortcomings and mistakes that MMOS have been making for past 5+ years doesn't give confidence to people. This is why P2P model can not sustain itself because devs just don't get it and yet all blame falls on the players.

    Yes there will be some who will stick to the game but there were some who also kept playing 1.0 which was an utter embarassement so that doesn't say much.

  • TwoThreeFourTwoThreeFour Member UncommonPosts: 2,155
    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Originally posted by Torcip
    SE has already way exceeded their expectations with this MMO, all they intended to have was a small and dedicated group of players just like with FFXI.  They probably know that a lot of people will leave and don't really care, they don't have publishers or outside investors to answer to for FFXIV and most likely already made their money back on what they spent on FFXIV.

    Square Enix is a public company.  

    I am sure that investors with significant holdings expect more than a "small and dedicated group of players" for their #1 franchise.  

    Age of Conan sold over 800,000 copies.  The game (along with The Secret World) bankrupted the company.  If you think they've made back their investment already you are deluded.

    Look at who are the major shareholders in SquareEnix:

     

    http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/stock/shareholder.html

     

    Yasuhiro Fukushima holds the highest shares at 20.47% and  he happens to be the founder of Enix. He surely cares a hell lot more about the money than the company he founded, right? :D
  • heavyhebrewheavyhebrew Member Posts: 309
    Originally posted by Maelzrael
    Originally posted by Tissmogi
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Over the last 6-7 years the MMO community has witnessed some very successful initial launches.

    Age of Conan

    WAR

    SWTOR

    Each of them crashed and burned very fast.   They shared many of the same qualities, namely:

    1)  Seriously easy leveling at the start;

    Every MMO has this

    2)  Major leveling and end-game nerfs soon after;

    I fail to see any nerfs, if you refer to the adjustments of the dungeons to prevent speed runs, then that is not a nerf but a needed change.

    3)  Standard theme park designs; 

    applies to all recent mmos and ffxiv has non standard design too.

    4) Initial game queue issues; and

    every mmo had these

    5) Major bugs that were exploited early.

    Name just one exploit with link and proof please.

    FFXIV shares all of these "symptoms".  FATEs are so ridiculously OP that many casual players are in their 30s and 40s and anyone remotely hardcore is already 50.   Amdapor Keep just received a massive nerf of the exponential variety.  Everyone already knows about the initial login headaches.  Endgame dungeon exploits abound.  

    The attrition rates of the games above were approximately 90% in the first 6 months.  FFXIV does not look to be in better shape.

     

    The game will have a healthy following just like FFXI has. I prefer a small but dedicated and mature community to the cesspool of something like WoW any day!

    Really dude? That not a fair way to talk about people who play wow. Granted servers like blackrock have the worst community I've ever seen, but, servers like Wyrmrest Accord have some of the nicest.... Generalizing you're dislike of the wow community like that is just unintelligent. Not to mention that anyone that still plays wow to this day is probably way more dedicated and mature then someone who game hops to every new game that comes out.

    Also, small communities are not always better, I don't know if you've played games like Darkfall, but its a niche community that I personally found to be very undesirable.

    Wow is a disasterpiece of what it once was but that doesn't mean that the people who still play are all bad.

    Hey, I am former WA, thanks! Played with Grav, Pel and the other Hordies. Loved that server, everyone was cool.

    Surprise twist: I started in Blackrock.

    TRUST THE COMPUTER! THE COMPUTER IS YOUR FRIEND!

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    Yellow Clearance Black Box Blues!

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by TwoThreeFour
    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Originally posted by Torcip
    SE has already way exceeded their expectations with this MMO, all they intended to have was a small and dedicated group of players just like with FFXI.  They probably know that a lot of people will leave and don't really care, they don't have publishers or outside investors to answer to for FFXIV and most likely already made their money back on what they spent on FFXIV.

    Square Enix is a public company.  

    I am sure that investors with significant holdings expect more than a "small and dedicated group of players" for their #1 franchise.  

    Age of Conan sold over 800,000 copies.  The game (along with The Secret World) bankrupted the company.  If you think they've made back their investment already you are deluded.

    Look at who are the major shareholders in SquareEnix:

     

    http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/ir/stock/shareholder.html

     

    Yasuhiro Fukushima holds the highest shares at 20.47% and  he happens to be the founder of Enix. He surely cares a hell lot more about the money than the company he founded, right? :D

    Yeah because company can exist without the money right? 

  • ReizlaReizla Member RarePosts: 4,071

    Only points I can somewhat agree with are 1 (easy leveling) and 3 (standard themepark). All other points are real BS OP has posted when it comes to FFXIV:ARR.

    Truth to be told though, if points 1 & 3 indeed will bring the 'same shit on a different day' when I'm playing, I indeed might decided to quit playing FFXIV:ARR in time. It's the same reason I quited playing World of Warcraft and Linege II, where you do the same dailies and dungeons over and over again to level up and obtain (tokens for)  gear.

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  • echolynfanecholynfan Member UncommonPosts: 681

    All the great MMO prognosticators here ALSO said the GW2 was going to be THE MMO to end MMO's - so if I don't take your dire doomsday predictions about FF ARR's quick demise seriously...don't be all butt hurt.

     

    Currently playing SWTOR and it's MUCH better than it was at launch.

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by echolynfan

    All the great MMO prognosticators here ALSO said the GW2 was going to be THE MMO to end MMO's - so if I don't take your dire doomsday predictions about FF ARR's quick demise seriously...don't be all butt hurt.

     

    Very thoughtful argument.

    In case of P2P MMOS i don' think one needs a crystal ball because history is proof enough. And FFXIV's problems are exactly same of that of SWTOR..a very weak end game with promises of 'more to come in future' while expecting that players will keep paying the sub.

     

  • echolynfanecholynfan Member UncommonPosts: 681
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Originally posted by echolynfan

    All the great MMO prognosticators here ALSO said the GW2 was going to be THE MMO to end MMO's - so if I don't take your dire doomsday predictions about FF ARR's quick demise seriously...don't be all butt hurt.

     

    Very thoughtful argument.

    In case of P2P MMOS i don' think one needs a crystal ball because history is proof enough. And FFXIV's problems are exactly same of that of SWTOR..a very weak end game with promises of 'more to come in future' while expecting that players will keep paying the sub.

     

    I played SWTOR and KNEW after level 20 that the game sucked...I didn't have to hit the end. There is already a strong sense of community and a boatload of stuff to do. I've only just hit 30 on my Conjuror and am now working on my job class of Arcanist...I'm at level 9. There is so much to do with crafting I don't know where to even begin.

    I do play about 8 hours a day but I choose to sleep also :)

    Currently playing SWTOR and it's MUCH better than it was at launch.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,725

    I dunno, I'd put this game on par with Wrath in terms of enjoyment value. It's not the best MMO I've ever played, but it is the best one currently on the market. I think it's a better game that Rift. Even if you don't agree that it's better, It would still be tough to say its worse. Rift did well for itself as a sub game until they botched the expansion. But during it's Vanilla life cycle, Rift and Trion enjoyed a very respectable reputation for frequent high quality content that justified the subscription. XIV's continued existence will depend entirely on how well SE develops content for the game. GW2 would probably be a hell of a lot more successful right now had ANET developed its content with the true B2P philosopy (frequent paid expansions) instead of thier bastardized hybrid F2P one. So long as SE uses the money it gets from FF14 to fund FF14 and not pull a "Funcom", FF14 will be around for years.

  • mayankingmayanking Member UncommonPosts: 162
    Thanks everyone for spending 30-70 usd on the game. I appicate the cash you put into the game i will be playing for awhile. Hope you all find your next mmorpg you can play rush to the end then repeat said post.
  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,182
    Originally posted by echolynfan

     

    I played SWTOR and KNEW after level 20 that the game sucked...I didn't have to hit the end. There is already a strong sense of community and a boatload of stuff to do. I've only just hit 30 on my Conjuror and am now working on my job class of Arcanist...I'm at level 9. There is so much to do with crafting I don't know where to even begin.

    I do play about 8 hours a day but I choose to sleep also :)

    What is all this stuff to do? When I keep hearing that by your third job grind you have little option but to grind fates, I have a hard time believing a game has a decent amount of content in place.

    So many mixed messages one side saying there's tons to do, while another says there is not, not to mention the double standard that's showing up in regard to this game compared to others that were mentioned by the OP. As this game does share a lot in common with those titles in terms of launch content, world size,  or lack there of, invisible walls, WOWification, gear grinds etc.... These "issues" were exactly what earned those games the reputation they got at their launch. Yet in this case all of that stuff is just fine and dandy.

    I gave the game a shot and stated it's enjoyable in my impressions of it, but my concern has always been, what sets it apart enough that will allow it to overcome the dreaded three month exodus all others like it have seen since around 06-07.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • faiyofaiyo Member Posts: 123
    Originally posted by Torcip
    SE has already way exceeded their expectations with this MMO, all they intended to have was a small and dedicated group of players just like with FFXI.  They probably know that a lot of people will leave and don't really care, they don't have publishers or outside investors to answer to for FFXIV and most likely already made their money back on what they spent on FFXIV.

    No offense but.. this is a bit delusional?

    If they wanted a small and dedicated group of players they probably wouldn't have spent time and money revamping this game.

  • kaiser3282kaiser3282 Member UncommonPosts: 2,759

    Ummm.... wtf world are you living in? Maybe what you say is true in large part for SWTOR, but that was not the reason why either AoC or WAR quickly died out after the 1st month or so. I have a lot more experience with WAR, so I'll mainly touch on that.

    1) 2 classes which were supposed to be in at launch were not even in game until something like 2 months after launch, and they were just mirrors of already existing classes on opposite sides

    2) Terrible engine performance for the graphics for about the 1st year+ until they finally improved it somewhat

    3) Nearly every time a fortress battle happened, the result was the ENTIRE server crashing

    4) Only 2 of 6 promised capital cities put into the game, the other 4 were never put in and it only took them about 2 years to admit that they are never going to put them in

    5) terrible class balance issues (BW bomb squads anyone?) which were "countered" by applying blanket nerfs which impacted all classes, not just the classes that needed nerfing, resulting in very gimped classes. this still continues to this day...

    6) very broken & boring PvE experience which was quickly thrown to the side anyway and never worked on except for the addition of LoTD... nothing added since

    7) 2 faction RvR... pretty self explanatory if you have any common sense.

    8) an RvR system designed largely around getting faster and greater rewards by avoiding fights as much as possible and just zerging empty zones and taking down keep doors before anyone has a chance to come defend aka Doorhammer

    9) a mail system at launch which had this fun little thing where every time you open the mailbox it would lag for 5+ minutes before even opening. this took about a month to get fixed

    10) ridiculously broken pet system which still has not been fixed after 4 years

    11) along with #10, a broken stealth system which was only made worse by the broken pets.

    Those are just some of the issues that were there at launch, even more continued to pop up over time as the population continued decreasing. Hell the issues even resulted in the complete removal of fortresses, which were supposed to be the main focus / goal of RvR at end game, for a very long time.

     

    Now sure, FF14 has some of its own issues, mainly some design choice issues, but it is nowhere near as broken as a game like WAR was at launch. Aside from the earlier server / login issue, the game itself has almost no actual bugs / broken systems. It is mainly a matter of some shabby design choices that need to be tweaked / improved (like some revamping of the crafting system, tweaking of rewards for some tasks, etc).

  • amber-ramber-r Member Posts: 323

    I've been really surprised how fast the leveling is and how little endgame content there is in the game, the main dissapointment for me was the only endgame content being dungeons again.  They really should of stuck with the ffxi model.  It worked and it kept players interested for years, guess the lack of experience is what's showing with the games lead director.

     

    As it stands right now I have no reason to subscribe, I've seen all the world, seen how the leveling system is, seen the story and done the endgame content I wanted to do.  I don't want to subscribe just to grind the same dungeons over and over or level jobs I have no interest in.  It was a fun game but it burns through it's content too fast for a game that needs subscribers.

  • kaiser3282kaiser3282 Member UncommonPosts: 2,759
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by echolynfan

     

    I played SWTOR and KNEW after level 20 that the game sucked...I didn't have to hit the end. There is already a strong sense of community and a boatload of stuff to do. I've only just hit 30 on my Conjuror and am now working on my job class of Arcanist...I'm at level 9. There is so much to do with crafting I don't know where to even begin.

    I do play about 8 hours a day but I choose to sleep also :)

    What is all this stuff to do? When I keep hearing that by your third job grind you have little option but to grind fates, I have a hard time believing a game has a decent amount of content in place.

    So many mixed messages one side saying there's tons to do, while another says there is not, not to mention the double standard that's showing up in regard to this game compared to others that were mentioned by the OP. As this game does share a lot in common with those titles in terms of launch content, world size,  or lack there of, invisible walls, WOWification, gear grinds etc.... These "issues" were exactly what earned those games the reputation they got at their launch. Yet in this case all of that stuff is just fine and dandy.

    I gave the game a shot and stated it's enjoyable in my impressions of it, but my concern has always been, what sets it apart enough that will allow it to overcome the dreaded three month exodus all others like it have seen since around 06-07.

    There is plenty of content to focus on for your main job. You only really start needing to keep repeating content, like fates, when you begin working on multiple jobs. The system is designed to allow you the flexibility of multiple jobs, not an all encompassing main storyline which will last every player through maxing out every job. Each job has its own set of quests which follow a storyline for that job and open up every 5 levels, but between those quests you will be doing a bit of grinding fates or leves or dungeons to fill in the gaps. The main story which everyone experiences though will mainly be handled by whichever you settle on as your main job to max out 1st.

    Most complaints about lack of content stem from the geniuses who CHOOSE to fate grind and power level their way to the top ASAP while ignoring the story driven content, then complaining there is nothing to do when they havent even gone back to catch up on unlocking the story stuff which they stopped following 30 levels earlier.

    Im currently sitting at around 30+ on 3 different combat jobs, working on my 4th now, and still havent completed the main story. Even now I havent had to do much actual fate grinding, Ive just been mainly been doing ones that are nearby while doing quests and stuff. Have yet to actually join a group for the purpose of fate grinding since it isn't needed unless your only goal is to power level.

  • cybersurfrcybersurfr Member UncommonPosts: 168
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by echolynfan

     

    I played SWTOR and KNEW after level 20 that the game sucked...I didn't have to hit the end. There is already a strong sense of community and a boatload of stuff to do. I've only just hit 30 on my Conjuror and am now working on my job class of Arcanist...I'm at level 9. There is so much to do with crafting I don't know where to even begin.

    I do play about 8 hours a day but I choose to sleep also :)

    What is all this stuff to do? When I keep hearing that by your third job grind you have little option but to grind fates, I have a hard time believing a game has a decent amount of content in place.

    So many mixed messages one side saying there's tons to do, while another says there is not, not to mention the double standard that's showing up in regard to this game compared to others that were mentioned by the OP. As this game does share a lot in common with those titles in terms of launch content, world size,  or lack there of, invisible walls, WOWification, gear grinds etc.... These "issues" were exactly what earned those games the reputation they got at their launch. Yet in this case all of that stuff is just fine and dandy.

    I gave the game a shot and stated it's enjoyable in my impressions of it, but my concern has always been, what sets it apart enough that will allow it to overcome the dreaded three month exodus all others like it have seen since around 06-07.

    Why is it a concern for you? There will never be limitless content in a theme park like this. You are dreaming if you think a theme park will ever have sufficient content to satisfy every one for years without end. Devs churn out content to mellow it down and this game is no different with patches already planned and in the works. If you feel and dread that this game will have a massive three month exodus, then by all means you shouldn't bother playing it. I know that feeling of having wasted "time investment" in a game. I've been there in all the games whose worlds I never cared about.

     

    At the moment, I am enjoying simply crafting and fostering a community in my server. Personally, I think this game has a lot of pontential - so much so, that I will stay. If people leave in the weeks or months to come, then I might be inclined to do so as well. I am hoping that would not be the case, but if it does then I might be inclined to leave as well. If it doesn't and people like me feel the same way about the world in this game, then that would be a good thing and would make me stay.

     

    I started "MMOs" before the term was coined - through games like Legends of Kesmai and Kingdom of Drakkar. Back then, I simply played and hung out with the small community those games had. In this game, for a change, I am having the same feeling I had - playing without a care for what to do now or how I might run out of things to do. If it fails, then so be it - I will put it down and move on. All I know is that right now - I am enjoying being in this game.

     

     

  • Jairoe03Jairoe03 Member Posts: 732

    It's rather unfair for the OP to judge the continuity of a game solely based on its cons without comparing the pros to the other said games. WAR honestly didn't have much going for them besides being the first to come up with the concept of what we now call Events (or FATEs), but the game design pushed people into other areas and out of the regular World activities. The mechanics in WAR I also felt were lacking and weren't as exciting as they put it down on paper and rather gimmicky. Same can be said for Conan in regards to its mechanics.


    FFXIV on its recreate took what worked on their first iteration and experimentation and then took what worked better from other MMOs that they needed to improve upon to make a fairly solid game. If everybody generalized every game solely based on their faults then really no game will have any sort of retention which isn't quite the truth and illogical of the OP to create such statements solely based on his listed logic. Final Fantasy will primarily succeed even if all else fails and its because its unique lore that only can be found in Final Fantasy and one of the major reasons why I personally play the game.


    BTW what bugs are actually known inside the game that is truly becoming a gamebreaking experience? Just feels he's planted other cons to make the game look worse than it actually is

  • ZebladeZeblade Member UncommonPosts: 931

    FFXIV ARR is not like those mentioned. It was released and got remade something the others could not do.

    Like some others have said they have surpassed what they wanted to keep the game going.

    So if some expect this game to go FREE TO PLAY you will be waiting a very long time.

     

  • WicoaWicoa Member UncommonPosts: 1,637
    My eggs are in this basket, with a new job and life getting busier. I don't have the time to make game leaps like I used to. /cry CoX /hug.
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