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Why FF14 ARR won't be a success
neobahamut20
Member Posts: 336
First, we must define what a success is. In this case success is attaining or surpassing the goals set by developers and the expectations for the game. The goals are set by the developper, the expectations come from the fans. Final Fantasy fans don't expect a playable game, they expect a new adventure, a ground-breaking innovative game and new game mechanics. Why? Because in the past, that is what Final Fantasy has been all about.
The goals, we can only speculate on, but the seem to be along the line of "people play X so lets do X or something similar to that, as long as we make money". While it is normal for a company to want to make money, it is also when you focus on making money instead of meeting expectations that you lose money. When you do not meet a customer's expectations, few customers will stay and hope you improve. Players in this day and age want much more than "a playable game".
So what does this game offer? Does it offer groundbreaking, new, innovative combat? No. Does it offer a new, groundbreaking, innovative story? At the moment, it seems not. Does it offer new, groundbreaking, innovative dungeons, reasons for grouping, reasons to interact? No. Does it offer new classes? No. New controls? No. So what does this game offer? Nothing new, just the old content all MMO players looking for a new game do not want. So right off the bat, they simply step back and understand that the game isn't meant for them. Unless, of course, a playstation release is considered new, then there is something, but it is hard to imagine how that will draw enough attention to attract people.
So who is the target audience? It seems it is new players, newcomers to the MMO world. Veterans are being forced through boring design principles from the beginning. MMOs are just like stores. If a customer walks into a store and sees nothing of interest within 5 minutes, you most likely lost him for a very, very long time if not forever. MMOs get more than 5 minutes though, they get 2 hours to impress. If they can't, he's gone. Likewise, if he gets bored within the first week, he's gone. I guess such a display of ignorance is the price to pay when you let someone who is not an analyst lead production.
So the big question really is, are there enough newcomers to sustain a game long enough for it to stay afloat especially after the 3rd month exodus (that happens even in successful games, but it seems like an interesting phenomenon - Every 3rd month of a new game is where players seem to give up on it the most)? The last game that lacked innovation, which was touted as the next big thing, was SW:TOR. It barely made it thanks to going F2P and it is still very far from a success, it is only playable.
Given that nostalgic Final Fantasy fans will still give the game a try, it still seems like FF11 is the better game of the two. There is no reason for a max level player from FF11 to switch over to FF14 at this point in time. For this reason and those listed above, this game will never be a success, but, with some luck, it might be able to stay afloat. Best of luck to them, but for me, its time to move on and wait for something else as this will never meet my expectations.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
Comments
I think you are right on all points. After the 1.0 disaster it seems SE's approach is to play it as safely as possible by creating yet another generic wow-clone that is at least decently polished and playable with better graphics.
The game is getting good traction from the crowd that hops from MMO to MMO, and there is a lot of hunger out there for a new game as there has not been a major MMO release for nearly a year.
A lot of people are curious to see is SE can really revive a dead game, and how big the PS3 market will be for a wow-clone remains to be seen.
That said you are 100% correct about how people should be concerned about the 3 month exodus. Tons of people have made it to the middle 30s in only a few days of limited beta and that is with a story that stops at lvl 20. Its safe to say loads of people will be maxed and doing raids in under a week.
If the endgame content isn't extremely good, the exodus will happen and SE will be scrambling to keep a playerbase by time Wildstar and TESO roll out.
I agree, though I am, or was, a Final Fantasy fan, but one from very first Nintendo game. Perhaps they are targetting those fans who started at Final Fantasy 12, however, in the P2P market, they are less likely to have parents that will accept to pay 15$ per month. Like I said though, I think it may have enough to stay afloat, but it wont be a success, especially not the one they want it to be.
It doesn't really bother me if no one likes a game, what bothers me most is when the game does not meet the franchise's expectations. For example, SW:ToR is a game with the name Star Wars on it, but it does not feel like Star Wars and completely misses the point of Star Wars. Age of Conan felt nothing like Conan. Although still in beta, this game looks like Final Fantasy, but it lacks the flavor we are used to getting from Final Fantasy games. Even WoW messing up the lore a bit to make for more interesting zones/stories bothered me and I quit when they announced pandas.
However, most people care about the MMO's playability. They want something new and that is probably the easiest concept to grasp. You can still have lore and story for the fans alongside innovation, but for some reason, it must be really hard to do because no one is doing it! As an analyst programmer I simply do not understand how they can fail on that point. It seems EQNext understand, so I'm waiting to see what they have and what they consider innovations. Even if GW2's trading post and combat turned out to be lackluster, I still appreciate them daring to try something new, but each time I play the combat bores me within 30 minutes.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
The reasons you are exposing are just points of view.
Basically you're saying that ARR will fail because you don't like it very much.
And you extrapolate with saying that a majority won't like it.
You're not the center oh the world you know.
Don't you read forums ?
Don't you see that a lot of people are enjoying the game ?
You don't like it, okay.
Don't pretend to have universal knowledge.
Your post lacks any real evidence. Just a lot of hunches, assumptions, and opinions. If your post was supposed to make a point, it failed to make it.
In War - Victory.
In Peace - Vigilance.
In Death - Sacrifice.
On what part of the lore did WoW miss our on? Its my understanding that WoW is the current world in which the Warcraft story is set, anything new isn't really "lore" as its more "unexplored territory." On a second note, just because at one point Panderens were the target of an aprils fools joke, they were much apart of the lore of Warcraft since the beginning. Chen Stormstout has taken a major role in the devolpement of Duratar and of Org. The pandarens have always been there.
Its ironic too. He has a quote on his avatar,
"We can only show them the path, but they have to be the ones to take it."
But yet, instead of showing us the path, he made his own path and is claiming it to be the one that everyone follows.
I swore off WoW-style games forever, and then tried FFXIV. Guess what? FFXIV is doing things right to the point that I'm completely into the game on a level I never thought I would be. The game arguably has the most polish of any MMO ever released (including vanilla WoW), and it puts things together in an extremely entertaining package. The whole is greater than the sum of it's parts in this case.
If FFXIV puts out a compelling end game, I could easily see it becoming the #2 MMO in the world behind WoW. It won't dethrone WoW, but it's going to come a lot closer than SWTOR ever did.
I stopped reading after I realized you, for whatever reason, thought they would try to make this game appeal to everyone.
I'm confused. are you14 years old or 30? You mention that you have been a FF since the first one on Nintendo. Which implies that you're older.
Then you say that you quit WoW when they announced pandarens and "messed up" the lore by doing so, which implies that you're 14. Because if you were older then you would have known full well that Pandaren's were neutral hero units in WC3 and have been in the lore. A younger player would not know that and instead would be more familiar with kung fu panda and liken Pandaren to that.
And if you know enough Warcraft lore to know that Blizzard fudged around with some of it, then why do you not know about Pandaren?
Y U NO MAK SENS?!?
Hmm
Kinda like "You can lead a horse to water, but cant make him drink" lol
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
Actually, that asian market is why I think its going to stay afloat. I dont think the western market will be enough for it to survive. However, most of the asian market wont switch over to a game just because it's new and them, a lot more than westerners, have some sort of attachment to their current charaters so only newer players could be interested, older ones have nothing to move for.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
Let me guess: you hated FF XII?
You assume I liked pandaren before WoW... nope. I always thought they didn't fit well with the game. It was not the lore itself, more like some maps had things moved that shouldn't move, but I understand it was to fit with the flow and appeal of the game. So that wasn't gamebreaking. Infinite guard spawns were much worse than that and I still played... until pandas. See, they've always been there, but since they are really there now, it doesn't mean I have to still be there if I don't like it. I hate blood elves too.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
I liked it until I auto-set my chars to beat gilgamesh at level 50, then I figured the game had too many flaws. When you have nothing to do, you wonder why they didn't make it into a movie instead. The hammers were hilarious though, or was it axes? Those that either 1shot 95% of mobs or hit for 1dmg. I still don't hate it, I just find it pointless to play.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
That's like asking someone to prove that God doesn't exist. If you seriously see anything new in that game, you must be new to the MMO scene, so you are the target audience, go ahead and play it! It just is not innovative. I dont want it to fail, I just have to wait for a 16 or 17 or 18 online. If it fails I can kiss that dream of ever playing a great FF MMO again good bye.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
I have a friend in the Beta. He's been keeping up to date on this game. Initially, it was on my watch list as one to keep an eye on and see if it turns out better than it's 1st attempt. Since having discussed this with him in great detail and getting a very personal explanation of what this game is going to offer, how and why.....I'm already buying this one. We shall see what happens 30, 60, 90 days from release.
Though I cannot quote numbers, FFX imo does have a large asian following ready to pounce on the game!
Buh? FF hasn't ever been about any of those things. If anything, Final Fantasy has been about sticking to traditions literally from the first game on the NES. Really .. it's surprising, go back and play FF1 and see how many things are actually in there that are still in more modern/traditional Final Fantasies (including FFXIV and FFXI).
If anything, the FFs that have broken with tradition (FF13, FF14 v1) have been less successful (and also crap games).
This invalidates your entire post.
Additionally, the reason for high-level FFXI players to play FFXIV is to play a game that will have the same development as XI, build the same community as XI, and have a lot of new things to do with much better gameplay. XIV looks to succeed here quite handily. No, it doesn't have the complexity of XI yet, but neither did XI at launch.
Nothing can really fail more than 1.0, unless a company tries another Dark and Light.
Boycotting EA. Why? They suck, even moreso since 2008.
"There is no reason for a max level player from FF11 to switch over to FF14 at this point in time."
Well, I (being a max level player from FFXI) am switching. There must be at least one reason.............right?