Problem here is that you have to make a "well-made, orgional themepark" that is a BETTER "well-made, origional themepark" then the 20 other guys that hoping to do just the same thing...and better then Wow/Rift/Aion are right now in order to win those players from them. In order to do that you generaly have to sink enough resources into the Development Budget to be competitive with those guys.
Thats why EA's investors are NOT so happy with SWTOR right now, despite the fact that it probably still has around 1 million players, significantly more then EvE. While CCP's investors are pretty happy. Because in order to get a rate of return on every dollar they sunk into SWTOR that's equivalent to the rate CCP got on every dollar sunk into EvE... TOR would probably have to get and SUSTAIN more like 3-5 million players then the 1 million it has.
There is no doubt that Themeparks CAN be proffitable, and CAN be decent investments too. It's just that the competition there is alot stiffer.
Frankly EvE isn't even all that appealing as a "sandbox" game....
- It's 10 years old.
- You play a spacship
- It has a very STEEP learning curve.
- It's unfreindly to new players
- FFA PvP with rampant Griefing and Meta-Gaming
- Very grindy.
- It's combat system has been likened to playing a spreadsheet.
- no IP backing.
The fact that INSPITE of all that it still manages around 300K-400K subscriptions should tell you something about the potential for sandbox games with more "mainstream" features in other aspects of the game.
Two things you will make profit: Either...
differentiate yourself from your competition
or cut production costs
Those two are pretty much universal from business to business. What didn't SWTOR do? They certainly didn't cut costs. Sadly they didn't manage to differentiate themselves enough from the competition either. You can't out-do WoW. Its foolish to even try. Even with a massive budget.
Still, SWTOR probably covered its development costs easily. The only reason why EA's investors would be unhappy is that the game didn't have quite the success they expected. They made profit, but it wasn't nearly as much as they wanted.
I don't believe TOR has come ANYWHERE CLOSE to recouping it's development costs yet. Some back of the envelope math easly tells me that. More importantly, simply knowing something about expectations in the type of offering it is. With an SaaS business model (that's what MMO's are essentialy) the vast majority of your costs are sunk up front in terms of Development. Operating expenses are significant but still minor compared to that . You are EXTATIC if you recoup your Develpment Costs in the first year of business. It's an entirely different proposition then the boxed sales software business
Even if TOR had ZERO operating costs and made 100% of it's GROSS in Proffit...some back of the envelope math tells me they wouldn't have recouped thier initial Develpment investment yet.
Lets say on average the gross purchase cost of a TOR unit was $60....and that includes the first 30 days of play. I believe they sold somewhere around 2 million units.....that's $120 million GROSS.
They have, coming up now on 5 months worth of sub fees (remember 1st month is included in the initial sale). Lets say they averaged about 1.5 million subs (and I think that's generous) at $15 per month for 5 months. By my math thats around another $112 million Gross.
That puts us in at around $230 million GROSS. You seriously think TOR's Dev budget was significantly less then 200 million?
Again we're talking GROSS here....that's with ZERO Operating costs, ZERO percent of the proffits going to Lucas for the IP, ZERO percent of the proffits going to wholesalerrs/retailers/distributers for boxed sales. ZERO costs for production of packaging, etc..... ZERO costs for marketing.
You really think they've recouped thier initial investment already?
But can you actually make a AAA sandbox MMORPG for 6 million dollars (100k x 60) and sustain and grow/expand said game with 1.5 million a month in subscription revenue?
That sounds like a lot of money, but if the answer is "yes" than why hasn't it been done?
6 million? No. 20 million? Yes, and expect more than 100k subbers too, even at around 200k that still seems low. Remember with the example we're talking atleast 5 years of a loyal playerbase of even lets say 100k. so 100k x15 is 1.5 mill a month aye? x12... 18 mill give or take... times 5 years is 90 million dollars. Thats without box sales, and at a pretty small player base.
I don't care if a company hasn't done it, and you don't need a huge Dev team to actually do it. What i find the problem is investors. That is a risk to take going sandbox. It isn't proven by a super subed game like WoW is for Themepark models. So inverstors that know crap about MMOs and what makes players flock to them, want a proven product... Or so to speak.
I know those numbers are thrown out there and don't consider a lot of costs, but 20 mill is a hefty size for making a game, any game. Let alone one that charges a sub fee.
Fair points all around, cheers.
To continue the debate, say you tell investors you need 20 million to make a game that will bring back 96 million over 5 years.
90 for 5 years of subs at 15 per sub with 100k subs, 6 million for box sales of 100k.
"Profit" then would be 70 million over 5 years, or 14 million a year.
Now, how much does it cost to maintain the servers, add patches/content, pay for the building, bandwidth, salaries, health care, etc. etc. etc.
Let's again use VERY funny numbers and say that you'll spend half of that 14 million per year to keep the game running, or 7 million.
So you are now down to 35 million profit over 5 years after a 20 million dollar investment.
Is that worth it?
If it was a gaurantee, that if I gave you 20 million in 5 years you'd give me back 55 million (my original 20 + 35 in pure profit) I'd say that would be a fair deal, if it were a sure thing and I had 20 million to part with in the first place.
But there are no sure things in gaming and in investing. Especially over 5 years.
Investors would want a ROI on launch day, and continuing profit each quarter after that. That's a good investment.
Meaning if I give you 20 million, I want more than 20 million back after the first quarter of launch not after 5 years.
Which means you'd have to sell a LOT more boxes and retain enough subs to pay me back and give me a profit in 3 months.
So let's say you sell 250k boxes and have 3 months of subs at 200, 150, and 100 respectively.
250k x 60 per box = 15 million
200k x 15 + 150k x 15 + 100k x 15 = 6.75 million
So 21.75 million back after 3 months, which is only 1.75 million in profit after my initial investment of 20 million.
"This deal is getting worse all the time." to quote a famous Gambler.
So I've made 1.75 million in the first 3 months and will make 1.5 million a month in each month after that.
You factor in costs to keep the game running, that 1.75 million becomes $875,000 (again let's assume half) and that 1.5 million per month from 100k subs at 15$/mo becomes $750,000 / month.
Enough to make expansions? Hire more people? Grow the company and business? Create new content and features fast enough to retain that 100k player base and possibly expand it?
If I'm only making 750,000 a month from my investment of 20 millions dollars, I am going to start initiating cost cutting measures like staff reductions to try and bolster the next quarters numbers so that my investing partners don't panic.
If I'm not a gamer myself, I don't understand that cutting people to save money is NOT how to expand a game and it's player base in the long run, but hey, if I can squeeze out more money for the next 6 months by cutting costs the game can shut down in a year or two and I would have made enough ROI to feel good about myself and keep the companies stock from dipping too low.
Now you see how and why the business works as it does...
As for why it hasn't been done yet, well that's easy. Corporations are machines, and their only obligation and goals are to provide the shareholders with profits using as little risk as possible. Don't you think every game company to come along since WoW has gone into investor meetings talking about how brilliant WoW did in the market? Of course they did. Investors will pay for a shot at WoW's success, but they won't pay for niche games yet. Eventually they will get the message that WoW was a fluke, and there will be few winners like it in the future.
I wonder. The MMO that at the moment has the most chance of being a big success is GW2, yet that one isn't a sandbox MMO at all, but firmly in the themepark style of things. More of a next-gen themepark MMO. If it becomes hugely popular and successful, then what you'll see is a number of big game companies trying to make that kind of themepark MMO's.
Only when a sandbox MMO or sandbox-themepark MMO hybrid becomes hugely successful, especially financially successful, then you'll see more and more companies trying their hand at big sandbox/hybrid development. But there'll be a number of sandbox MMO's and sandbox hybrids already in the upcoming years: WoD, Repopulation, Undead Labs' zombie MMO, AA, to name a few.
I agree with you. I think it's more likely that one of these indy games will finally hit the mark for a fun sandbox and will draw some attention. The only big-budget sandbox-hybrid game out there now is ArchAge. I'm hoping they get a publisher soon so we can see how it does eventually. It has a lot of interest on this website, that's for sure. There are some rumors of a publisher picking it up for the West floating around now. I hope so.
Actually 2.
The second one hasn't been picked up on for some reason. It may not be getting as much promotion. Darkness and light I think it's called. The chinese studio that bought the rights to Dark and light completely redeveloped the game. Sandbox/ themepark hybrid like AA is what it looks like. Pretty massive looking game, and impressive to look at.
Needless to say, i think we're trying to prove the same point to each other But looking at it from different sides.
I am glad to see someone discussing, not raging though, its a rare occurance on these forums
Exactly, +1 to you sir.
It's hard enough finding investors for the long haul of concept to release taking years and years of development, but then risking low ROI over years and years of loyal fan base and steady growth is (sadly) not as appealing as a quick cash grab and then praying for small, measured growth in "maintenance mode."
I myself pray for the success of games like GW2 which break the mold a bit and something like Archeage which really seems to break the mold in many aspects with the whole "sandpark" thing.
Opening investors eyes to other possible avenues of profit making will (hopefully) bring more variety in the games themselves and bring even more players into the genre, which is always good for us gamers.
The sandbox crowd may not be massive but we are loyal, long-term customers when the right game comes along.
That's the biggest problem with Themepark games, most companies can't keep up with the content so a lot of players leave after a short period of time.
I'd much rather have 100K loyal customers for 5 years rather than the huge fluctuations in player populations we've seen in themeparks released over the past few years.
This is another great point. Sandbox players are a market that will pay you a sub fee (or whatever) for YEARS, not just a few months after release. We build communities and we make that game our home. I played SWG from release until NGE, and there was a long time when I was paying $45 per month for three paid accounts. A lot of people pay for multiple accounts in EVE as well.
But can you actually make a AAA sandbox MMORPG for 6 million dollars (100k x 60) and sustain and grow/expand said game with 1.5 million a month in subscription revenue?
That sounds like a lot of money, but if the answer is "yes" than why hasn't it been done?
I think sandbox games are likely cheaper to develop than themeparks. Just for starters you don't have to have hundreds of hours of voiceover content, and you really don't need to spend as much time on quest building. What you do is start building game machanics that allow the player to make content. Once those mechanics are flshed out, they can be used anywhere, including expansions.
The result of this is emergent gameplay, and this is exactly why so many people are talking about Day Z. For all its indy-developed alpha quality game mod charm, the gameplay mechanics are very simple, yet they allow very complex interactions between the players and the environment. This empowers the players to become their own content. SWG also played like this, and many people loved it.
This is only one example, but it's a faily fun one. SWG eventually put in a quest-building system where players themselves could build quests, complete with NPC's and rewards. SWG had almost nothing for quest content, but some of the most fun quests I did were player-made. That's just one small example, and that's to say nothing of the gameplay that emerges from the imaginations of the players when they are handed an interactive open world.
As for why it hasn't been done yet, well that's easy. Corporations are machines, and their only obligation and goals are to provide the shareholders with profits using as little risk as possible. Don't you think every game company to come along since WoW has gone into investor meetings talking about how brilliant WoW did in the market? Of course they did. Investors will pay for a shot at WoW's success, but they won't pay for niche games yet. Eventually they will get the message that WoW was a fluke, and there will be few winners like it in the future.
Good post...
I don't think WOW was a fluke.....I think what WOW did to the MMO industry was very deliberate. If you read some of the dev interviews from the early days of WOW development....the Blizzard team understood some of the negative feedback from mainstream gamers had about MMO games (takes too long, too many punative measures, too much dependency on other players, etc.) and recognized an opportunity to fill a LARGE gap that existed in the MMO market.
They also recognized that the MMO industry had one of gamings most lucrative pricing models (Box Sale + Re-Occuring Monthly Fee) was being waisted on one of gamings most niche audiences. Only if they could tap in to the millions and millions of mainstream gamers and get them on that MMO pricing model.
So they created a new audience (See Blue Oceans / Red Seas Marketing Theory) of casual MMO gamers and have enjoyed all the benefits of being first to market. They held down "themepark" gaming for several years before any serious competition challenged their spot in the market. By that time, many of the former WOW players that tried out the new "Themepark" MMOs ended up just going back to WOW, where they already had an established character and social network, because the gaming experience was largely the same.
Because WOW did it FIRST (and did it well), none of the new MMO games could really penetrate the market of casual MMO gaming because they just weren't different enough.
Needless to say, i think we're trying to prove the same point to each other But looking at it from different sides.
I am glad to see someone discussing, not raging though, its a rare occurance on these forums
Exactly, +1 to you sir.
It's hard enough finding investors for the long haul of concept to release taking years and years of development, but then risking low ROI over years and years of loyal fan base and steady growth is (sadly) not as appealing as a quick cash grab and then praying for small, measured growth in "maintenance mode."
I myself pray for the success of games like GW2 which break the mold a bit and something like Archeage which really seems to break the mold in many aspects with the whole "sandpark" thing.
Opening investors eyes to other possible avenues of profit making will (hopefully) bring more variety in the games themselves and bring even more players into the genre, which is always good for us gamers.
If I was about 10 years younger, I would look into starting an MMO middleware company. If anyone is wondering why the Hero engine is so popular lately, it's because they have a great licensing system for their engine. Hell you can jump on there and start playing with it now for free if you want.
It blows me away that these games are in development for as long as they are... 3, 5, 7 years is just nuts.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
Then why does Outback Steakhouse even exist? By your logic there should only be convenience food available because that is more popular. Do you see how ridiculous your mindset on this is now?
Why do baristas at Starbucks even exist when lawyers make more money? You think companies should consciously make products & services that make less money compared to more money and you have the gall to say my mindset is ridiculous.
Once again you are arguing some completely ridiculous point which has nothing to do with the topic.
"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"
6 million? No. 20 million? Yes, and expect more than 100k subbers too, even at around 200k that still seems low. Remember with the example we're talking atleast 5 years of a loyal playerbase of even lets say 100k. so 100k x15 is 1.5 mill a month aye? x12... 18 mill give or take... times 5 years is 90 million dollars. Thats without box sales, and at a pretty small player base.
100% retention and zero churn for 5 years? Is this an MMO or a cult?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Do I have to have a business plan every time I wish upon a star?
Nope. But you also dont get your hopes up. The chances of a big multi million dollar projects are usually not very good without a fabulous business plan.
Otoh, everyone is entitled to their wishful thinking.
Needless to say, i think we're trying to prove the same point to each other But looking at it from different sides.
I am glad to see someone discussing, not raging though, its a rare occurance on these forums
Exactly, +1 to you sir.
It's hard enough finding investors for the long haul of concept to release taking years and years of development, but then risking low ROI over years and years of loyal fan base and steady growth is (sadly) not as appealing as a quick cash grab and then praying for small, measured growth in "maintenance mode."
I myself pray for the success of games like GW2 which break the mold a bit and something like Archeage which really seems to break the mold in many aspects with the whole "sandpark" thing.
Opening investors eyes to other possible avenues of profit making will (hopefully) bring more variety in the games themselves and bring even more players into the genre, which is always good for us gamers.
If I was about 10 years younger, I would look into starting an MMO middleware company. If anyone is wondering why the Hero engine is so popular lately, it's because they have a great licensing system for their engine. Hell you can jump on there and start playing with it now for free if you want.
It blows me away that these games are in development for as long as they are... 3, 5, 7 years is just nuts.
It's also crazy to employee so many people as well. Does building a mmo really need that many hands involved. Just reading some of what happened at Bioware with so many involved, the right hand didn't know what the left was doing and from what i read seemed like one big cluster**** from the get go. Everything that goes with quality usually is made or created with a small group of very talented people that on a daily basis works well together and has a focus on the task at hand.
So with that being said, wouldn't it be a much better investment to have around 10 very talented people that are programmer's, designer's and artist's with a yearly salary around 65k to 70k each that can come together and create something of quality. When you take those salaries and add in the cost of maintaining a small building, the cost of the game engine/software/hardware, the servers and some advertisement for 5 yrs, you should be able to do that all for around 10mill.
So are you the almighty godfather of MMOS? Why does anyone have to prove anything to you? Are you some multi-millionaire investor, because last time I checked investors with large capital go about doing their headhunting by different means, not trolling forums.
Nope. Just throwing a challenge. Calling certain posters out on their claims. They love to insinuate that the reason why people don't like the recent MMORPGs is because deep down they love sandboxes, the game didn't have enough sandbox features in it, or that sandoxes require a refined taste (the restaurant vs fast food example), or that devs are just plain greedy or stupid and don't know what they're doing.
Some of them are trolling, some of them aren't. I'm calling them out.
The only challenge I see is your failure to recognize all the massively popular sandbox games that have been brought up in this thread.
When a few guys make a sandbox mod out of a 2009 fps (DayZ) and its popularity eclipses current and upcoming multi million dollar themeparks, I don't really see any other need to try and prove your claims false.
This, this and this.
A nice attempt at trolling OP, but do you really believe in what you wrote? The genre is crying out for a GOOD sandbox, not a half assed, shoddy, broken one. There's a reason EVE has outlived every other MMO on the market - good developers, good ethos, good taste, and it offers something no other game has.
I bet if you did a study on the task-oriented attention span of the population of all people, you would find a correlation to the relational size of casuals versus long term players that would ape the population (if anyone knew it) of theme park versus sand box players.
Yeah, I just said a whole lot of nothing. I'll hit enter anyway what the hell.
The sandbox crowd may not be massive but we are loyal, long-term customers when the right game comes along.
That's the biggest problem with Themepark games, most companies can't keep up with the content so a lot of players leave after a short period of time.
I'd much rather have 100K loyal customers for 5 years rather than the huge fluctuations in player populations we've seen in themeparks released over the past few years.
This is another great point. Sandbox players are a market that will pay you a sub fee (or whatever) for YEARS, not just a few months after release. We build communities and we make that game our home. I played SWG from release until NGE, and there was a long time when I was paying $45 per month for three paid accounts. A lot of people pay for multiple accounts in EVE as well.
But can you actually make a AAA sandbox MMORPG for 6 million dollars (100k x 60) and sustain and grow/expand said game with 1.5 million a month in subscription revenue?
That sounds like a lot of money, but if the answer is "yes" than why hasn't it been done?
I think sandbox games are likely cheaper to develop than themeparks. Just for starters you don't have to have hundreds of hours of voiceover content, and you really don't need to spend as much time on quest building. What you do is start building game machanics that allow the player to make content. Once those mechanics are flshed out, they can be used anywhere, including expansions.
The result of this is emergent gameplay, and this is exactly why so many people are talking about Day Z. For all its indy-developed alpha quality game mod charm, the gameplay mechanics are very simple, yet they allow very complex interactions between the players and the environment. This empowers the players to become their own content. SWG also played like this, and many people loved it.
This is only one example, but it's a faily fun one. SWG eventually put in a quest-building system where players themselves could build quests, complete with NPC's and rewards. SWG had almost nothing for quest content, but some of the most fun quests I did were player-made. That's just one small example, and that's to say nothing of the gameplay that emerges from the imaginations of the players when they are handed an interactive open world.
As for why it hasn't been done yet, well that's easy. Corporations are machines, and their only obligation and goals are to provide the shareholders with profits using as little risk as possible. Don't you think every game company to come along since WoW has gone into investor meetings talking about how brilliant WoW did in the market? Of course they did. Investors will pay for a shot at WoW's success, but they won't pay for niche games yet. Eventually they will get the message that WoW was a fluke, and there will be few winners like it in the future.
Good post...
I don't think WOW was a fluke.....I think what WOW did to the MMO industry was very deliberate. If you read some of the dev interviews from the early days of WOW development....the Blizzard team understood some of the negative feedback from mainstream gamers had about MMO games (takes too long, too many punative measures, too much dependency on other players, etc.) and recognized an opportunity to fill a LARGE gap that existed in the MMO market.
They also recognized that the MMO industry had one of gamings most lucrative pricing models (Box Sale + Re-Occuring Monthly Fee) was being waisted on one of gamings most niche audiences. Only if they could tap in to the millions and millions of mainstream gamers and get them on that MMO pricing model.
So they created a new audience (See Blue Oceans / Red Seas Marketing Theory) of casual MMO gamers and have enjoyed all the benefits of being first to market. They held down "themepark" gaming for several years before any serious competition challenged their spot in the market. By that time, many of the former WOW players that tried out the new "Themepark" MMOs ended up just going back to WOW, where they already had an established character and social network, because the gaming experience was largely the same.
Because WOW did it FIRST (and did it well), none of the new MMO games could really penetrate the market of casual MMO gaming because they just weren't different enough.
Great reply
What I mean by WoW being a fluke, was that it was basically a "perfect storm" of things that caused it to make the numbers it did.
Basically what you said, which was that it satisfied a large emerging mainstream market, most of which was completely new to MMO games.
The hardware requires were so meager, it was able to pull down a *huge* market of people with crappy computers not really made for this type of gaming.
Blizzard made a great and fun game and polished it to a fine shine.
Much less competition in the market, especially companies that can hang with Blizzard.
There may be other important factors, but those are the main ones in my mind. The hardware aspect is a lot larger than a lot of people assume I think. One of the main problems with SWG, for example, was that the game looked like crap with the graphics turned down, and most machines at the time struggled with even medium settings, especially in cities. I had a decked out FPS shooter rig, and it struggled at times due to optimization problems with the engine.
The market now is much wider as far as MMO developers go, and people have more choice, at least as far as the theme of the themepark goes. Players are spread over several games now. Another WoW is possible, but I think they will be rare occurences in the industry. There's some good money to be made in games with 300k-1million subscribers if these companies wise up.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
If blizzard made a sandbox it would have 8mill+ subs
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
I bet if you did a study on the task-oriented attention span of the population of all people, you would find a correlation to the relational size of casuals versus long term players that would ape the population (if anyone knew it) of theme park versus sand box players.
Yeah, I just said a whole lot of nothing. I'll hit enter anyway what the hell.
I think I understand where your getting at (I think)......and it's really common sense.
Think about all the different kinds of gamer demographics....and put them in a pie graph. I think it's probably fair to say that there are more people who classify themselves as "gamers" that have to deal with this thing called life (homework, tests, projects, work, friends, kids, wife / husband, pets, hobbies, and a number of other responsibilities) than there are gamers who have the luxury of being able to spend 1-4 hours at a time, 5-7 days a week on a game.
Considering most "themepark" games are geared to streamline the MMO experience (reduce time required to progress, reduce dependency on other players, simplify actions, abilities, choice, more direction, less risk, etc.).....its NO SUPRISE that there are more potential MMO gamers for something like WOW, than there are for a game like EVE.
Yes! And that would help explain the disparity, especially when one group feels the other group is trying to take their resources (developer production). I feel dirty after having said that, but I think it's true.
If blizzard made a sandbox it would have 8mill+ subs
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
Totally false. I can go back to my SWG pre-cu days and it took me 2 months to grind out a solid template that i enjoyed all the while doing many other fun things that the game offered other than combat. In WOW you can level up in about 2 weeks and run the same dungeons and warzones for the next 2 months over and over and still not have the full gear sets you want all the while creating countless alts along the way.
So when you get down to it, sandbox games are far more flexible and require a much more slower dedication than themeparks.
The thing about sandboxes is they aren't the easiest to build for players as accessible, easy to understand and use experiences. They often get bogged down in complexity which hurts them because so many people have such short attention spans and demand the instant gratification that's become the status quo.
Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what
it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience
because it lacks a few features you prefer."
John Henry Newman: "A man would do nothing if he waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault."
FreddyNoNose: "A good game needs no defense; a bad game has no defense." "Easily digested content is just as easily forgotten."
LacedOpium: "So the question that begs to be asked is, if you are not interested in
the game mechanics that define the MMORPG genre, then why are you
playing an MMORPG?"
Single-player sandboxes - a lineage descending from Sim City in the eighties, I think - are all about building things. Just like an actual sandbox.
Sandbox MMOs are traditionally much more focused on providing opportunities to kick sand in other players' faces. Which is not most peoples' fondest memory of a sandbox.
6 million? No. 20 million? Yes, and expect more than 100k subbers too, even at around 200k that still seems low. Remember with the example we're talking atleast 5 years of a loyal playerbase of even lets say 100k. so 100k x15 is 1.5 mill a month aye? x12... 18 mill give or take... times 5 years is 90 million dollars. Thats without box sales, and at a pretty small player base.
100% retention and zero churn for 5 years? Is this an MMO or a cult?
Somewhere between myself any MR. BadSpocks debate you must have missed the part where that 100k is the LOYAL fan base that Sandboxes tend to keep. I would assume a AAA title at 20 mil for production would sell somewhere around 400-600k boxes, but the LOYAL fan base, the ones that sub for those 5 years entirely, we summed up to about 100k just for a fair number. Surely you would have commers and goers, but the month to month subers, i think 100k is a fair number.
The "Youtube Pro": Someone who watches video's on said subject, and obviously has a full understanding of what is being said about such subject.
If blizzard made a sandbox it would have 8mill+ subs
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
Agreed.
Sandbox game would never get numbers WoW had.
That's why Blizzard have kept speeding up leveling process, was tunneling experience into instances more and more, not spending much resources into bringing new features into open world that would not also speed up, casualize and make it's experience more conveniant.
+ focus most of WoW development in dungeons, raids, arenas + ways and mechanics to put more people into those instanced gameplay more easily and conveniantly.
Remember housing or guild houses that were asked since day 1 from Blizzard and were always "we consider making them in future" - lol.
Without this WoW would not exceed 3-4 millions of players imho.
Of course that would mean I would stick with WoW much longer propably.
Still Blizzard don't care about me (I prefer mmorpg's that require more dedication even when I don't have nearly as much time for gaming as I had when I was for example in high school or college - as adult I still prefer games that require dedication and time) Blizzard care about more customers (which is perfectly normal) even if that meant angrying and alienating part of it's Vanilla WoW playerbase.
If I had to shoot I would say that HIT AAA sanbox with TPP gameplay in fantasy setting - would have potential of getting 2 millions max.
===========
On the other hand - sandbox games like UO or SWG were MUCH more time-flexible than most themepark were and many of them still are.
Most of activities in UO or SWG would be achiveable in same way if you would spend 4 x 1 h and if you would spend 1 x 4 h.
Originally posted by RajCaj Originally posted by letsxhat wholly shit 32 pages?!?If blizzard made a sandbox it would have 8mill+ subs
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
Agreed.
Sandbox game would never get numbers WoW had.
That's why Blizzard have kept speeding up leveling process, was tunneling experience into instances more and more, not spending much resources into bringing new features into open world that would not also speed up, casualize and make it's experience more conveniant.
+ focus most of WoW development in dungeons, raids, arenas + ways and mechanics to put more people into those instanced gameplay more easily and conveniantly.
Remember housing or guild houses that were asked since day 1 from Blizzard and were always "we consider making them in future" - lol.
Without this WoW would not exceed 3-4 millions of players imho.
Of course that would mean I would stick with WoW much longer propably.
Still Blizzard don't care about me (I prefer mmorpg's that require more dedication even when I don't have nearly as much time for gaming as I had when I was for example in high school or college - as adult I still prefer games that require dedication and time) Blizzard care about more customers (which is perfectly normal) even if that meant angrying and alienating part of it's Vanilla WoW playerbase.
If I had to shoot I would say that HIT AAA sanbox with TPP gameplay in fantasy setting - would have potential of getting 2 millions max.
===========
On the other hand - sandbox games like UO or SWG were MUCH more time-flexible than most themepark were and many of them still are.
Most of activities in UO or SWG would be achiveable in same way if you would spend 4 x 1 h and if you would spend 1 x 4 h.
When many themeparks do NOT allow this.
"require dedication"??? We r talking about games here. I am glad dev understand people do have lives. Wow is already a lot of work if u want to raid. Thank god they have lfr now.
6 million? No. 20 million? Yes, and expect more than 100k subbers too, even at around 200k that still seems low. Remember with the example we're talking atleast 5 years of a loyal playerbase of even lets say 100k. so 100k x15 is 1.5 mill a month aye? x12... 18 mill give or take... times 5 years is 90 million dollars. Thats without box sales, and at a pretty small player base.
100% retention and zero churn for 5 years? Is this an MMO or a cult?
Somewhere between myself any MR. BadSpocks debate you must have missed the part where that 100k is the LOYAL fan base that Sandboxes tend to keep. I would assume a AAA title at 20 mil for production would sell somewhere around 400-600k boxes, but the LOYAL fan base, the ones that sub for those 5 years entirely, we summed up to about 100k just for a fair number. Surely you would have commers and goers, but the month to month subers, i think 100k is a fair number.
This is a false perception/interpretation, because it is based on Data from a time when there were much less MMO players or people on the Internet coupled with the fact that no good Sandbox has been put to the market in the mean time.
Today there are Billions of people on the Internet compared to 15 years ago, and tens if not hundreds of millions of MMO players compered to the hundreds of thousands 15 years ago.
- Duke Suraknar - Order of the Silver Star, OSS
ESKA, Playing MMORPG's since Ultima Online 1997 - Order of the Silver Serpent, Atlantic Shard
Comments
I don't believe TOR has come ANYWHERE CLOSE to recouping it's development costs yet. Some back of the envelope math easly tells me that. More importantly, simply knowing something about expectations in the type of offering it is. With an SaaS business model (that's what MMO's are essentialy) the vast majority of your costs are sunk up front in terms of Development. Operating expenses are significant but still minor compared to that . You are EXTATIC if you recoup your Develpment Costs in the first year of business. It's an entirely different proposition then the boxed sales software business
Even if TOR had ZERO operating costs and made 100% of it's GROSS in Proffit...some back of the envelope math tells me they wouldn't have recouped thier initial Develpment investment yet.
Lets say on average the gross purchase cost of a TOR unit was $60....and that includes the first 30 days of play. I believe they sold somewhere around 2 million units.....that's $120 million GROSS.
They have, coming up now on 5 months worth of sub fees (remember 1st month is included in the initial sale). Lets say they averaged about 1.5 million subs (and I think that's generous) at $15 per month for 5 months. By my math thats around another $112 million Gross.
That puts us in at around $230 million GROSS. You seriously think TOR's Dev budget was significantly less then 200 million?
Again we're talking GROSS here....that's with ZERO Operating costs, ZERO percent of the proffits going to Lucas for the IP, ZERO percent of the proffits going to wholesalerrs/retailers/distributers for boxed sales. ZERO costs for production of packaging, etc..... ZERO costs for marketing.
You really think they've recouped thier initial investment already?
Actually 2.
The second one hasn't been picked up on for some reason. It may not be getting as much promotion. Darkness and light I think it's called. The chinese studio that bought the rights to Dark and light completely redeveloped the game. Sandbox/ themepark hybrid like AA is what it looks like. Pretty massive looking game, and impressive to look at.
http://www.mmoculture.com/2011/03/darkness-and-light-epic-mmo-in-making.html
No idea what's going on with the game though
Exactly, +1 to you sir.
It's hard enough finding investors for the long haul of concept to release taking years and years of development, but then risking low ROI over years and years of loyal fan base and steady growth is (sadly) not as appealing as a quick cash grab and then praying for small, measured growth in "maintenance mode."
I myself pray for the success of games like GW2 which break the mold a bit and something like Archeage which really seems to break the mold in many aspects with the whole "sandpark" thing.
Opening investors eyes to other possible avenues of profit making will (hopefully) bring more variety in the games themselves and bring even more players into the genre, which is always good for us gamers.
Good post...
I don't think WOW was a fluke.....I think what WOW did to the MMO industry was very deliberate. If you read some of the dev interviews from the early days of WOW development....the Blizzard team understood some of the negative feedback from mainstream gamers had about MMO games (takes too long, too many punative measures, too much dependency on other players, etc.) and recognized an opportunity to fill a LARGE gap that existed in the MMO market.
They also recognized that the MMO industry had one of gamings most lucrative pricing models (Box Sale + Re-Occuring Monthly Fee) was being waisted on one of gamings most niche audiences. Only if they could tap in to the millions and millions of mainstream gamers and get them on that MMO pricing model.
So they created a new audience (See Blue Oceans / Red Seas Marketing Theory) of casual MMO gamers and have enjoyed all the benefits of being first to market. They held down "themepark" gaming for several years before any serious competition challenged their spot in the market. By that time, many of the former WOW players that tried out the new "Themepark" MMOs ended up just going back to WOW, where they already had an established character and social network, because the gaming experience was largely the same.
Because WOW did it FIRST (and did it well), none of the new MMO games could really penetrate the market of casual MMO gaming because they just weren't different enough.
If I was about 10 years younger, I would look into starting an MMO middleware company. If anyone is wondering why the Hero engine is so popular lately, it's because they have a great licensing system for their engine. Hell you can jump on there and start playing with it now for free if you want.
It blows me away that these games are in development for as long as they are... 3, 5, 7 years is just nuts.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
wholly shit 32 pages?!?
If blizzard made a sandbox it would have 8mill+ subs
Once again you are arguing some completely ridiculous point which has nothing to do with the topic.
"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"
100% retention and zero churn for 5 years? Is this an MMO or a cult?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Nope. But you also dont get your hopes up. The chances of a big multi million dollar projects are usually not very good without a fabulous business plan.Otoh, everyone is entitled to their wishful thinking.
It's also crazy to employee so many people as well. Does building a mmo really need that many hands involved. Just reading some of what happened at Bioware with so many involved, the right hand didn't know what the left was doing and from what i read seemed like one big cluster**** from the get go. Everything that goes with quality usually is made or created with a small group of very talented people that on a daily basis works well together and has a focus on the task at hand.
So with that being said, wouldn't it be a much better investment to have around 10 very talented people that are programmer's, designer's and artist's with a yearly salary around 65k to 70k each that can come together and create something of quality. When you take those salaries and add in the cost of maintaining a small building, the cost of the game engine/software/hardware, the servers and some advertisement for 5 yrs, you should be able to do that all for around 10mill.
This, this and this.
A nice attempt at trolling OP, but do you really believe in what you wrote? The genre is crying out for a GOOD sandbox, not a half assed, shoddy, broken one. There's a reason EVE has outlived every other MMO on the market - good developers, good ethos, good taste, and it offers something no other game has.
hehe awesome
Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011
Great reply
What I mean by WoW being a fluke, was that it was basically a "perfect storm" of things that caused it to make the numbers it did.
The market now is much wider as far as MMO developers go, and people have more choice, at least as far as the theme of the themepark goes. Players are spread over several games now. Another WoW is possible, but I think they will be rare occurences in the industry. There's some good money to be made in games with 300k-1million subscribers if these companies wise up.
A sure sign that you are in an old, dying paradigm/mindset, is when you are scared of new ideas and new technology. Don't feel bad. The world is moving on without you, and you are welcome to yell "Get Off My Lawn!" all you want while it happens. You cannot, however, stop an idea whose time has come.
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
Yes! And that would help explain the disparity, especially when one group feels the other group is trying to take their resources (developer production). I feel dirty after having said that, but I think it's true.
Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011
Totally false. I can go back to my SWG pre-cu days and it took me 2 months to grind out a solid template that i enjoyed all the while doing many other fun things that the game offered other than combat. In WOW you can level up in about 2 weeks and run the same dungeons and warzones for the next 2 months over and over and still not have the full gear sets you want all the while creating countless alts along the way.
So when you get down to it, sandbox games are far more flexible and require a much more slower dedication than themeparks.
That's another classic excuse.
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Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience because it lacks a few features you prefer."
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Which is why I'm playing darkfall and why I'm on these boards about 10 minutes a week.
Sandbox MMOs are traditionally much more focused on providing opportunities to kick sand in other players' faces. Which is not most peoples' fondest memory of a sandbox.
May be a lesson here for developers.
everyone wants a sandbox MMORPG, and by sandbox I'm just asking a real RPG no themepark leveling quest crap, that's it...
They just don't know it until a game get realeased
.
No, really, you need to have real roleplay interests.
Somewhere between myself any MR. BadSpocks debate you must have missed the part where that 100k is the LOYAL fan base that Sandboxes tend to keep. I would assume a AAA title at 20 mil for production would sell somewhere around 400-600k boxes, but the LOYAL fan base, the ones that sub for those 5 years entirely, we summed up to about 100k just for a fair number. Surely you would have commers and goers, but the month to month subers, i think 100k is a fair number.
The "Youtube Pro": Someone who watches video's on said subject, and obviously has a full understanding of what is being said about such subject.
Agreed.
Sandbox game would never get numbers WoW had.
That's why Blizzard have kept speeding up leveling process, was tunneling experience into instances more and more, not spending much resources into bringing new features into open world that would not also speed up, casualize and make it's experience more conveniant.
+ focus most of WoW development in dungeons, raids, arenas + ways and mechanics to put more people into those instanced gameplay more easily and conveniantly.
Remember housing or guild houses that were asked since day 1 from Blizzard and were always "we consider making them in future" - lol.
Without this WoW would not exceed 3-4 millions of players imho.
Of course that would mean I would stick with WoW much longer propably.
Still Blizzard don't care about me (I prefer mmorpg's that require more dedication even when I don't have nearly as much time for gaming as I had when I was for example in high school or college - as adult I still prefer games that require dedication and time) Blizzard care about more customers (which is perfectly normal) even if that meant angrying and alienating part of it's Vanilla WoW playerbase.
If I had to shoot I would say that HIT AAA sanbox with TPP gameplay in fantasy setting - would have potential of getting 2 millions max.
===========
On the other hand - sandbox games like UO or SWG were MUCH more time-flexible than most themepark were and many of them still are.
Most of activities in UO or SWG would be achiveable in same way if you would spend 4 x 1 h and if you would spend 1 x 4 h.
When many themeparks do NOT allow this.
Not likely......many of the 10+ million subscribers WOW has didn't just come out of thin air. Many of these folks were formerly playing other casual games in other casual generes (Consoles, FPS, RTS, and other single player experiences)
The reason they migrated to WOW was because Blizzard made their MMO experience fit their schedules & preferences by changing the traditional MMO template into something more fitting with their previous gaming experiences.
The guy who came home after a 12 hour work day to put the blinders on for 30 minutes or so in a FPS match is now running a 30 minute Heroic run or Battleground. If a dungeon crawl in WOW took 2 hours to coordinate group members & finish the dungeon, he wouldn't be playing WOW.
The girl who has to be preparted to stop whatever it is she is doing to take care of kids or other responsibilities around the house is playing WOW because she can solo the entire game and has the ability to set her own schedule. If WOW required you to depend on a group (and have that group depend on you) in order to progress in the game, she wouldn't be playing WOW.
Point being, just because Blizzard creates a quality sandbox game, doesn't change the fact that only so many people have the flexibility & desire to commit themselves to a MMO gaming experience that requires more time & dedication to realize progress & have "fun".
Agreed.
Sandbox game would never get numbers WoW had.
That's why Blizzard have kept speeding up leveling process, was tunneling experience into instances more and more, not spending much resources into bringing new features into open world that would not also speed up, casualize and make it's experience more conveniant.
+ focus most of WoW development in dungeons, raids, arenas + ways and mechanics to put more people into those instanced gameplay more easily and conveniantly.
Remember housing or guild houses that were asked since day 1 from Blizzard and were always "we consider making them in future" - lol.
Without this WoW would not exceed 3-4 millions of players imho.
Of course that would mean I would stick with WoW much longer propably.
Still Blizzard don't care about me (I prefer mmorpg's that require more dedication even when I don't have nearly as much time for gaming as I had when I was for example in high school or college - as adult I still prefer games that require dedication and time) Blizzard care about more customers (which is perfectly normal) even if that meant angrying and alienating part of it's Vanilla WoW playerbase.
If I had to shoot I would say that HIT AAA sanbox with TPP gameplay in fantasy setting - would have potential of getting 2 millions max.
===========
On the other hand - sandbox games like UO or SWG were MUCH more time-flexible than most themepark were and many of them still are.
Most of activities in UO or SWG would be achiveable in same way if you would spend 4 x 1 h and if you would spend 1 x 4 h.
When many themeparks do NOT allow this.
"require dedication"??? We r talking about games here. I am glad dev understand people do have lives. Wow is already a lot of work if u want to raid. Thank god they have lfr now.This is a false perception/interpretation, because it is based on Data from a time when there were much less MMO players or people on the Internet coupled with the fact that no good Sandbox has been put to the market in the mean time.
Today there are Billions of people on the Internet compared to 15 years ago, and tens if not hundreds of millions of MMO players compered to the hundreds of thousands 15 years ago.
Order of the Silver Star, OSS
ESKA, Playing MMORPG's since Ultima Online 1997 - Order of the Silver Serpent, Atlantic Shard