It's a nobrainer that the game will have an insane sale rate for a MMO and it will set new records.
Now the question is how many will stay subscribed?
Easily, just like Rift it will sell like hotcakes. However, it's impossible to predict the sub rate. If it's the same old tired formula then it will drop off like Rift has. It will be hot until GW2 comes out.
I'm saying this right now as a warning: GW2 is going to be a massive dissapointment.
ANet is writing checks their game can't cash. I really don't get why so many people think GW2 is going to be anything super special. The combat system? Nope, really take a look at the way the combat system works in videos. It's just like GW 1, but flashier. The only real difference is that roll, which isn't new and is nothing more than a novelty. The open world? GW 1 is pretty open in terms of how much land there is, the only new step wouldn't non-instanced areas. That's not new.
The story? I think Bioware is going to trump them there. The classes? Nothing original.
Anet is doing a really amazing job of publicizing their game and making it look really, really good in videos. But that's it.
FF14 looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out.
Aion looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out (though supposedly it's gotten a lot better, I'm not the one to ask)
Cataclysm looked at least somewhat interesting in videos and it's turned out freaking awful in the long run.
So far, TOR looks how I expected it to. TOR looks how I expect it will at release. And so far, I like what I see. It's not new or terrible original, but at least Bioware isn't trying to claim that it is.
Bioware has been around long enough to know that making your game look like something it's not in press videos is the same as making promises. You're way better off being up front about what you're doing so that nobody is surprised and so far all I've seen from Bioware is stark honesty in what kind of game they're making.
I have no doubt in SWTOR's success and launch. However, one must remember 2011 has been a good (and getting better) year for games. I actually have no desire to play an MMO, with all the prime SP and MP choices out there. I wouldn't go overboard.
I'm saying this right now as a warning: GW2 is going to be a massive dissapointment.
ANet is writing checks their game can't cash. I really don't get why so many people think GW2 is going to be anything super special. The combat system? Nope, really take a look at the way the combat system works in videos. It's just like GW 1, but flashier. The only real difference is that roll, which isn't new and is nothing more than a novelty. The open world? GW 1 is pretty open in terms of how much land there is, the only new step wouldn't non-instanced areas. That's not new.
The story? I think Bioware is going to trump them there. The classes? Nothing original.
Anet is doing a really amazing job of publicizing their game and making it look really, really good in videos. But that's it.
FF14 looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out.
Aion looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out (though supposedly it's gotten a lot better, I'm not the one to ask)
Cataclysm looked at least somewhat interesting in videos and it's turned out freaking awful in the long run.
So far, TOR looks how I expected it to. TOR looks how I expect it will at release. And so far, I like what I see. It's not new or terrible original, but at least Bioware isn't trying to claim that it is.
Bioware has been around long enough to know that making your game look like something it's not in press videos is the same as making promises. You're way better off being up front about what you're doing so that nobody is surprised and so far all I've seen from Bioware is stark honesty in what kind of game they're making.
While I agree with you for the most part, I think you're being a bit unfair to GW2, their combat seems pretty promising. I honestly hope GW2 turns out great but so far I agree, it seems like an imminent train wreck, but only because the hype around GW2 is so high that it's almost a guarantee that people will be disappointed. DEs are looking to be nothing more special than rifts or PQs, perhaps a bit more indepth but for the most part nothing that could keep people's attention for longer than a couple of months at best. Their stories seem lackluster, at least from what we've seen. However, the one thing that I think might save GW2 is WvW, it seems like an interesting concept, I'm still a bit disappointed that there won't be true open world PvP but the concept of WvW seems promising.
Another thing that makes me uneasy about GW2 is the fact that people will have no need to group, at all, they can just join in a DE without even saying hi to the people around them and there isn't even a need to get to know other players since everyone can heal themselves. That to me seems to be the real issue that will lead to GW2's downfall, sadly since it seemed so promising.
As far as box sales, my prediction is 3 million in the first month with a 65% retention rate and a steady growth after launch, this is Bioware we're talking about, not to mention the biggest IP in the world.
I'm saying this right now as a warning: GW2 is going to be a massive dissapointment.
ANet is writing checks their game can't cash. I really don't get why so many people think GW2 is going to be anything super special. The combat system? Nope, really take a look at the way the combat system works in videos. It's just like GW 1, but flashier. The only real difference is that roll, which isn't new and is nothing more than a novelty. The open world? GW 1 is pretty open in terms of how much land there is, the only new step wouldn't non-instanced areas. That's not new.
The story? I think Bioware is going to trump them there. The classes? Nothing original.
Anet is doing a really amazing job of publicizing their game and making it look really, really good in videos. But that's it.
FF14 looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out.
Aion looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out (though supposedly it's gotten a lot better, I'm not the one to ask)
Cataclysm looked at least somewhat interesting in videos and it's turned out freaking awful in the long run.
So far, TOR looks how I expected it to. TOR looks how I expect it will at release. And so far, I like what I see. It's not new or terrible original, but at least Bioware isn't trying to claim that it is.
Bioware has been around long enough to know that making your game look like something it's not in press videos is the same as making promises. You're way better off being up front about what you're doing so that nobody is surprised and so far all I've seen from Bioware is stark honesty in what kind of game they're making.
Oh lawd, in before GW2 fans take over the thread and turns in to a GW2 vs TOR thread.
Considering how we are in a recession and their wasn't that many fans of the first SWG, I don't see it ever passing the original SWG in sales of 1million for it's release. Even the news speculated on that when Smedley said sales topped 1million but the servers showed differently with only 10k active at anytime. So if the first SWG didn't have a fan base of 2million at it's launch or over time what makes you think this will? I would bet their are far fewer people interested in Star Wars now then any other time, considering how long it has been and how boring the franchise had become. People kinda just shrug it off and move on I would think.
2 million is a ambitious number. If you look at Rift sales of 127k sold units it's first week or whatever you can see that a game like that which had more word of mouth because of the WOW community that it had reached far more people but did not do so well in sales. So how is this going to reach 2 million at launch is beyond me, so many variables and data that you can look at that doesn't make the 2 million range even remotely possible for launch.
Considering how we are in a recession and their wasn't that many fans of the first SWG, I don't see it ever passing the original SWG in sales of 1million for it's release. Even the news speculated on that when Smedley said sales topped 1million but the servers showed differently with only 10k active at anytime. So if the first SWG didn't have a fan base of 2million at it's launch or over time what makes you think this will? I would bet their are far fewer people interested in Star Wars now then any other time, considering how long it has been and how boring the franchise had become. People kinda just shrug it off and move on I would think.
2 million is a ambitious number. If you look at Rift sales of 127k sold units it's first week or whatever you can see that a game like that which had more word of mouth because of the WOW community that it had reached far more people but did not do so well in sales. So how is this going to reach 2 million at launch is beyond me, so many variables and data that you can look at that doesn't make the 2 million range even remotely possible for launch.
? I don't think Rift had only 127k sold in the first week especially when you count the preorders and digital sales. But even if you'd ignore Rift, AoC, WAR and Aion each sold around a million already, so for an AAA title that number isn't hard to imagine.
Now, considering that those were titles that didn't all have major IP's backing it nor one of the most popular developers behind it, I'd say that the combination of Bioware + Star Wars can do better than both.
Especially if you consider that SWTOR will have an ingame world that dwarfs those other titles in both size as well as amount and immersion level of its content.
Regarding GW2: I don't see it bomb, people have to consider that GW was still one of the most played games continously even years after the last expansion was released, and that was without the hype and abundance of features that GW2 will have. Not to forget, that GW has had 1.5-2 million players over the years, the majority of which are excited and interested in GW2. And it's B2P, so it's easy to combine with an MMORPG that you keep a sub running on.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Considering how we are in a recession and their wasn't that many fans of the first SWG, I don't see it ever passing the original SWG in sales of 1million for it's release. Even the news speculated on that when Smedley said sales topped 1million but the servers showed differently with only 10k active at anytime. So if the first SWG didn't have a fan base of 2million at it's launch or over time what makes you think this will? I would bet their are far fewer people interested in Star Wars now then any other time, considering how long it has been and how boring the franchise had become. People kinda just shrug it off and move on I would think.
2 million is a ambitious number. If you look at Rift sales of 127k sold units it's first week or whatever you can see that a game like that which had more word of mouth because of the WOW community that it had reached far more people but did not do so well in sales. So how is this going to reach 2 million at launch is beyond me, so many variables and data that you can look at that doesn't make the 2 million range even remotely possible for launch.
? I don't think Rift had only 127k sold in the first week especially when you count the preorders and digital sales. But even if you'd ignore Rift, AoC, WAR and Aion each sold around a million already, so for an AAA title that number isn't hard to imagine.
Now, considering that those were titles that didn't all have major IP's backing it nor one of the most popular developers behind it, I'd say that the combination of Bioware + Star Wars can do better than both.
Especially if you consider that SWTOR will have an ingame world that dwarfs those other titles in both size as well as amount and immersion level of its content.
Regarding GW2: I don't see it bomb, people have to consider that GW was still one of the most played games continously even years after the last expansion was released, and that was without the hype and abundance of features that GW2 will have. Not to forget, that GW has had 1.5-2 million players over the years, the majority of which are excited and interested in GW2. And it's B2P, so it's easy to combine with an MMORPG that you keep a sub running on.
Rift sold around 127k first week which is launch week. We are talking LAUNCH numbers not what potential numbers can be given after a month or more. Do you even know what Launch means, it's not a method of calculating sales past the first week, you guys here make it seem the word launch means month or months which is absurd.
Again LAUNCH is the key word not total sales over months here, the thread specifically says LAUNCH. Perhaps 2 million maybe after a year or two if all goes well, but it's going to be hard to say with all the current info out and how many people are pretty much bored with Star Wars by now.
They are making a big talk about E3, and if they keep talking like that at E3, I think they are really going to push up what they want to get out.
And some of the stuff they want to do sounds amazing. If they can really do it all, this game could REALLY take off. If they can't, well. Maybe not so good eh.
Rift sold around 127k first week which is launch week. We are talking LAUNCH numbers not what potential numbers can be given after a month or more. Do you even know what Launch means, it's not a method of calculating sales past the first week, you guys here make it seem the word launch means month or months which is absurd.
Again LAUNCH is the key word not total sales over months here, the thread specifically says LAUNCH. Perhaps 2 million maybe after a year or two if all goes well, but it's going to be hard to say with all the current info out and how many people are pretty much bored with Star Wars by now.
Sigh. Ah, I see we're going this road.
First of all, those Rift figures don't include digital downloads, which Trion depended heavily on. The fact that they opened up to 99 servers of which many were full and High should be indication enough that it's obviously more than 127k, 10k players is the average estimated number of players for a healthy populated server. To compare, Aion and AoC had 30-50 servers to deal with 800k to 1 million sales.
Besides that, I already stated that even if you forget Rift, the launch sales of AoC, Aion and WAR was still nearing 1 million sales, mind you, that's launch sales for you, not what they accumulated over the months, because typically the peak of sales and players nowadays often is in that first month after launch.
So yes, seeing the pattern of any other AAA MMORPG of the past years, we're talking about launch sales that can rate that high because the vast majority of MMO gamers interested in a new title either preorders or buys it those first week(s) after launch. This happened with Rift, WAR, AoC, Aion, etc, so why should this be different for SWTOR?
Any way, this is all speculating of course. We'll see how many are sold at launch or preordered, but I doubt SWTOR will do worse than WAR, AoC or Aion that reached 700k to 1 million at their launch.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Its funny how everyone thinks that SWTOR is not going to do well. Have you looked at the game yet? Have you read anything about the game. You talk about no name games like Warhammer and AOC games getting about 1 mil the frist day. How will Star Wars, the biggest name ever, wont beat that? SWTOR has put more money and development time in this game then any other game that has ever been made. This game is gunning for the top, they are not half assing this game. They have done their reseach and will be one of the top MMO games around next year. Galaxies was a crappy game that did not put any effort into making and still did decent. World of Warcraft is at the top as of right now but with all the players they have been losing to the random MMOs its easy to see that WoW is dying and when SWTOR hits the shelf im guessing at least 20% will join the band wagon for SWTOR. Guild wars is considered to be a great game but i never saw anything that was special of the game. I got bored of it within the first couple hours. Rift is an interesting game that has taken WoW down a peg as well.
I believe that in the end of 2012, pre apocolypse, that SWTOR will be number 1 or a close 2nd. Bioware makes amazing games that destroy the numbers when selling games. Star Wars is also the biggest name ever. People who didnt even play MMOs play Galaxies and that was a shitty game. SWTOR will sell way more copys than any other MMO has ever sold, plain and simple. To think anything else is niave. There is not a single soul who doesnt know what star wars is. This game was not just put together in the last year as well like most other games. SWTOR has been working on this game for the past 5 years or longer now, i have been seeing the class trailers for it for the past 4 so im only guessing they been working on it longer than that. They have put in so much time and money into this game bioware is not going to see it be lost, they are doing their best to create this game and come January everyone will see that this game is off the charts. Already the game sounds amazing and looks amazing.
Rift sold around 127k first week which is launch week. We are talking LAUNCH numbers not what potential numbers can be given after a month or more. Do you even know what Launch means, it's not a method of calculating sales past the first week, you guys here make it seem the word launch means month or months which is absurd.
Again LAUNCH is the key word not total sales over months here, the thread specifically says LAUNCH. Perhaps 2 million maybe after a year or two if all goes well, but it's going to be hard to say with all the current info out and how many people are pretty much bored with Star Wars by now.
Sigh. Ah, I see we're going this road.
First of all, those Rift figures don't include digital downloads, which Trion depended heavily on. The fact that they opened up to 99 servers of which many were full and High should be indication enough that it's obviously more than 127k, 10k players is the average estimated number of players for a healthy populated server. To compare, Aion and AoC had 30-50 servers to deal with 800k to 1 million sales.
Besides that, I already stated that even if you forget Rift, the launch sales of AoC, Aion and WAR was still nearing 1 million sales, mind you, that's launch sales for you, not what they accumulated over the months, because typically the peak of sales and players nowadays often is in that first month after launch.
So yes, seeing the pattern of any other AAA MMORPG of the past years, we're talking about launch sales that can rate that high because the vast majority of MMO gamers interested in a new title either preorders or buys it those first week(s) after launch. This happened with Rift, WAR, AoC, Aion, etc, so why should this be different for SWTOR?
Any way, this is all speculating of course. We'll see how many are sold at launch or preordered, but I doubt SWTOR will do worse than WAR, AoC or Aion that reached 700k to 1 million at their launch.
Yes they DO man, the Rift totals are all cumulative totals for all sales, digital to boxed for RIFT on that link. Say what you want but the facts are in the numbers and other information surrounding totals for past sales. SWG did not have 2 million at launch the entire first year+ combined so how can we go from that which was the earlier part of 2000's which had more FANS of Star Wars to years later with not much more Star Wars to create and get older and newer people alike interested again, your stagnant to long numbers will fall off for any fan. I don't think I'm wrong but if I am the sales increase wasn't due to much new players but the systemic wide community of MMORPG players looking to get away from the same old fantasy style and move onto something at least familiar popularized by the Sci-Fi genre.
It's a nobrainer that the game will have an insane sale rate for a MMO and it will set new records.
Now the question is how many will stay subscribed?
After being Burned on Vanguard , AOC, Rift , I have learned Wait till trial . Companys these days seem to not care if there product is good at launch they just hype as much as they can & make there investment back on day one with box sales ..
So while people continue to jump into a game as fast as they can & then spend the next month complaining , things won't change
Yes they DO man, the Rift totals are all cumulative totals for all sales, digital to boxed for RIFT on that link. Say what you want but the facts are in the numbers and other information surrounding totals for past sales. SWG did not have 2 million at launch the entire first year+ combined so how can we go from that which was the earlier part of 2000's which had more FANS of Star Wars to years later with not much more Star Wars to create and get older and newer people alike interested again, your stagnant to long numbers will fall off for any fan. I don't think I'm wrong but if I am the sales increase wasn't due to much new players but the systemic wide community of MMORPG players looking to get away from the same old fantasy style and move onto something at least familiar popularized by the Sci-Fi genre.
I'm not going to discuss Rift with you anymore, I know you're wrong, it's nonsensical to think that Rift had a mere 127k players in total with 99 very busy and active servers. But I have no official quotes about it and neither can you prove that digital downloads were included in that figure, most people believe their figures are incomplete. But choose whatever you want to believe about Rift.
Forget about Rift, focus on the other stuff.
WAR, AoC and Aion sold close to million at their launch, preorders included.
What makes you think that the combination Star Wars and Bioware will do less?
You're entitled to your opinion, but personally I don't believe SWTOR will do less than those other AAA titles did at their launch.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Yes they DO man, the Rift totals are all cumulative totals for all sales, digital to boxed for RIFT on that link. Say what you want but the facts are in the numbers and other information surrounding totals for past sales. SWG did not have 2 million at launch the entire first year+ combined so how can we go from that which was the earlier part of 2000's which had more FANS of Star Wars to years later with not much more Star Wars to create and get older and newer people alike interested again, your stagnant to long numbers will fall off for any fan. I don't think I'm wrong but if I am the sales increase wasn't due to much new players but the systemic wide community of MMORPG players looking to get away from the same old fantasy style and move onto something at least familiar popularized by the Sci-Fi genre.
I'm not going to discuss Rift with you anymore, I know you're wrong, it's nonsensical to think that Rift had a mere 127k players in total with 99 very busy and active servers. But I have no official quotes about it and neither can you prove that digital downloads were included in that figure, most people believe their figures are incomplete. But choose whatever you want to believe about Rift.
Forget about Rift, focus on the other stuff.
WAR, AoC and Aion sold close to million at their launch, preorders included.
What makes you think that the combination Star Wars and Bioware will do less?
You're entitled to your opinion, but personally I don't believe SWTOR will do less than those other AAA titles did at their launch.
Fair enough. But how would you know each servers numbers. Did you go to each server and check, also did you have info on server population caps to come to that conclusion. Seems very vague to just say 99 busy servers and active. That link even says on the left in the graph cumulative sales, which means of all sales digital and boxed. Cumulative means of all sources. It's not impossible that Rift only had 127k sales first week, and as Rift became shot down more and more you can see how sales fell off quickly. That site is pretty well known and can be trusted btw.
Aion was a more premier Asian game first, it had more Asian sales then NA sales. Asians went nuts over that crap. War was over hyped and most WOW users bought War to try thinking it be just like WOW and they would have a cooler experience but failed. As far as AoC I don't know anything about on numbers as I have not researched that one yet. And a couple these had press releases suggesting they had more sales then they had by also using the accounts made trick vs actually sold. So I guess we wait and see nonetheless.
Even with good retention, in order to meet the initial requirements of sales this is highly possible
I predict they open way to many servers than they need to.
Same statement as above really, one is a result of the other and they are both a result of high initial sales
I predict a voice over accidently using a word that some parent over-hears and complains/sues the company.
Someone, somewhere will find a reason to compain about anything.
I predict massive complaining by a number of people.
As said this is almost certain of anything, there were complaints about several aspects of WoW of all things.
I predict people defending this IP with fire and brimstone.
As with any game, the people playing a game will defend it against those attacking it, same as every mmo ever released
I predict that people will predict that most of my predictions will be predicted as half true.
Well whatdoya know.
So were these actual predictions, or just generic things that apply to every game ever released and ever will be released?
Also - due to the ratings system, you can't sue a game because of something you see in it. Games are not publicly broadcast, you have to actually, purposefully buy and play them. Think of it like HBO. HBO is a pay-to-view channel, which means you're specifically acknowledging that you want to watch what's on HBO. As such, HBO isn't liable for anything you see or hear on the channel because you are willingly paying to watch that specific channel.
It's also why HBO can do pretty much whatever they want in terms of show content. Nudity, extremely gorey violence, language; whatever.
Everything else here is pretty much a generic statement that applies to any game discussion, as the red text indicates.
Even with good retention, in order to meet the initial requirements of sales this is highly possible
I predict they open way to many servers than they need to.
Same statement as above really, one is a result of the other and they are both a result of high initial sales
I predict a voice over accidently using a word that some parent over-hears and complains/sues the company.
Someone, somewhere will find a reason to compain about anything.
I predict massive complaining by a number of people.
As said this is almost certain of anything, there were complaints about several aspects of WoW of all things.
I predict people defending this IP with fire and brimstone.
As with any game, the people playing a game will defend it against those attacking it, same as every mmo ever released
I predict that people will predict that most of my predictions will be predicted as half true.
Well whatdoya know.
This made my brain hurt.
Also- predicting 'massive complaining by a number of people' with ANYTHING related to an MMO is kind of like saying 'I predict that if I drop this safe on your head, you will die.' It's not really a prediction at all, because that's what everyone knows will happen.
The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge. -Elbert Hubbard
Just for compare, PC-exclusive RPG, Witcher 2, 400k first week... 1M is realistic, maybe up to 3M in first month.
I doubt the retention, when player have run out of content, 1-6 month, quite wide estimate, but there about...
WoW is a absolute fluke in MMORPG-market, it was first one to realy introduce MMOs to mass market. After that it had player-history to run for it, place to come back, past achievent, peer presure and so on. It will be much harder to any new game to keep players, compared to the first one.
I doubt the retention, when player have run out of content, 1-6 month, quite wide estimate, but there about...
This is nonsense.
Why?
Because in order to make a meaningful prediction about this subject you need to know
a) How much content will be available at launch
b) How fast the average player will take to go from 1 to 50. Of course there are going to be fanatic players that tear through all or most of the available content before more is released- but there's nothing you can do about that.
c) what endgame content looks like. We just don't know.
d) The schedule for release of post-launch content. Zero info on this as well.
No one in the fan community has suffiecient information to make a meaningful prediction about this sort of thing at this point.
And even regardless of the features of the game, there's no way to say if this games hits a 'sweet spot' of market conditions with players like WoW did, or if it for some reason just doesn't hit as big as they expected.
The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge. -Elbert Hubbard
Comments
I'm saying this right now as a warning: GW2 is going to be a massive dissapointment.
ANet is writing checks their game can't cash. I really don't get why so many people think GW2 is going to be anything super special. The combat system? Nope, really take a look at the way the combat system works in videos. It's just like GW 1, but flashier. The only real difference is that roll, which isn't new and is nothing more than a novelty. The open world? GW 1 is pretty open in terms of how much land there is, the only new step wouldn't non-instanced areas. That's not new.
The story? I think Bioware is going to trump them there. The classes? Nothing original.
Anet is doing a really amazing job of publicizing their game and making it look really, really good in videos. But that's it.
FF14 looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out.
Aion looked really amazing in videos and we know how that turned out (though supposedly it's gotten a lot better, I'm not the one to ask)
Cataclysm looked at least somewhat interesting in videos and it's turned out freaking awful in the long run.
So far, TOR looks how I expected it to. TOR looks how I expect it will at release. And so far, I like what I see. It's not new or terrible original, but at least Bioware isn't trying to claim that it is.
Bioware has been around long enough to know that making your game look like something it's not in press videos is the same as making promises. You're way better off being up front about what you're doing so that nobody is surprised and so far all I've seen from Bioware is stark honesty in what kind of game they're making.
I predict a riot, I predict a riot.
I have no doubt in SWTOR's success and launch. However, one must remember 2011 has been a good (and getting better) year for games. I actually have no desire to play an MMO, with all the prime SP and MP choices out there. I wouldn't go overboard.
While I agree with you for the most part, I think you're being a bit unfair to GW2, their combat seems pretty promising. I honestly hope GW2 turns out great but so far I agree, it seems like an imminent train wreck, but only because the hype around GW2 is so high that it's almost a guarantee that people will be disappointed. DEs are looking to be nothing more special than rifts or PQs, perhaps a bit more indepth but for the most part nothing that could keep people's attention for longer than a couple of months at best. Their stories seem lackluster, at least from what we've seen. However, the one thing that I think might save GW2 is WvW, it seems like an interesting concept, I'm still a bit disappointed that there won't be true open world PvP but the concept of WvW seems promising.
Another thing that makes me uneasy about GW2 is the fact that people will have no need to group, at all, they can just join in a DE without even saying hi to the people around them and there isn't even a need to get to know other players since everyone can heal themselves. That to me seems to be the real issue that will lead to GW2's downfall, sadly since it seemed so promising.
As far as box sales, my prediction is 3 million in the first month with a 65% retention rate and a steady growth after launch, this is Bioware we're talking about, not to mention the biggest IP in the world.
Oh lawd, in before GW2 fans take over the thread and turns in to a GW2 vs TOR thread.
Considering how we are in a recession and their wasn't that many fans of the first SWG, I don't see it ever passing the original SWG in sales of 1million for it's release. Even the news speculated on that when Smedley said sales topped 1million but the servers showed differently with only 10k active at anytime. So if the first SWG didn't have a fan base of 2million at it's launch or over time what makes you think this will? I would bet their are far fewer people interested in Star Wars now then any other time, considering how long it has been and how boring the franchise had become. People kinda just shrug it off and move on I would think.
2 million is a ambitious number. If you look at Rift sales of 127k sold units it's first week or whatever you can see that a game like that which had more word of mouth because of the WOW community that it had reached far more people but did not do so well in sales. So how is this going to reach 2 million at launch is beyond me, so many variables and data that you can look at that doesn't make the 2 million range even remotely possible for launch.
? I don't think Rift had only 127k sold in the first week especially when you count the preorders and digital sales. But even if you'd ignore Rift, AoC, WAR and Aion each sold around a million already, so for an AAA title that number isn't hard to imagine.
Now, considering that those were titles that didn't all have major IP's backing it nor one of the most popular developers behind it, I'd say that the combination of Bioware + Star Wars can do better than both.
Especially if you consider that SWTOR will have an ingame world that dwarfs those other titles in both size as well as amount and immersion level of its content.
Regarding GW2: I don't see it bomb, people have to consider that GW was still one of the most played games continously even years after the last expansion was released, and that was without the hype and abundance of features that GW2 will have. Not to forget, that GW has had 1.5-2 million players over the years, the majority of which are excited and interested in GW2. And it's B2P, so it's easy to combine with an MMORPG that you keep a sub running on.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Rift sold around 127k first week which is launch week. We are talking LAUNCH numbers not what potential numbers can be given after a month or more. Do you even know what Launch means, it's not a method of calculating sales past the first week, you guys here make it seem the word launch means month or months which is absurd.
Rift sales can be found here, check the first week of launch http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/49494/rift/
Again LAUNCH is the key word not total sales over months here, the thread specifically says LAUNCH. Perhaps 2 million maybe after a year or two if all goes well, but it's going to be hard to say with all the current info out and how many people are pretty much bored with Star Wars by now.
They are making a big talk about E3, and if they keep talking like that at E3, I think they are really going to push up what they want to get out.
And some of the stuff they want to do sounds amazing. If they can really do it all, this game could REALLY take off. If they can't, well. Maybe not so good eh.
Sigh. Ah, I see we're going this road.
First of all, those Rift figures don't include digital downloads, which Trion depended heavily on. The fact that they opened up to 99 servers of which many were full and High should be indication enough that it's obviously more than 127k, 10k players is the average estimated number of players for a healthy populated server. To compare, Aion and AoC had 30-50 servers to deal with 800k to 1 million sales.
Besides that, I already stated that even if you forget Rift, the launch sales of AoC, Aion and WAR was still nearing 1 million sales, mind you, that's launch sales for you, not what they accumulated over the months, because typically the peak of sales and players nowadays often is in that first month after launch.
So yes, seeing the pattern of any other AAA MMORPG of the past years, we're talking about launch sales that can rate that high because the vast majority of MMO gamers interested in a new title either preorders or buys it those first week(s) after launch. This happened with Rift, WAR, AoC, Aion, etc, so why should this be different for SWTOR?
Any way, this is all speculating of course. We'll see how many are sold at launch or preordered, but I doubt SWTOR will do worse than WAR, AoC or Aion that reached 700k to 1 million at their launch.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Its funny how everyone thinks that SWTOR is not going to do well. Have you looked at the game yet? Have you read anything about the game. You talk about no name games like Warhammer and AOC games getting about 1 mil the frist day. How will Star Wars, the biggest name ever, wont beat that? SWTOR has put more money and development time in this game then any other game that has ever been made. This game is gunning for the top, they are not half assing this game. They have done their reseach and will be one of the top MMO games around next year. Galaxies was a crappy game that did not put any effort into making and still did decent. World of Warcraft is at the top as of right now but with all the players they have been losing to the random MMOs its easy to see that WoW is dying and when SWTOR hits the shelf im guessing at least 20% will join the band wagon for SWTOR. Guild wars is considered to be a great game but i never saw anything that was special of the game. I got bored of it within the first couple hours. Rift is an interesting game that has taken WoW down a peg as well.
I believe that in the end of 2012, pre apocolypse, that SWTOR will be number 1 or a close 2nd. Bioware makes amazing games that destroy the numbers when selling games. Star Wars is also the biggest name ever. People who didnt even play MMOs play Galaxies and that was a shitty game. SWTOR will sell way more copys than any other MMO has ever sold, plain and simple. To think anything else is niave. There is not a single soul who doesnt know what star wars is. This game was not just put together in the last year as well like most other games. SWTOR has been working on this game for the past 5 years or longer now, i have been seeing the class trailers for it for the past 4 so im only guessing they been working on it longer than that. They have put in so much time and money into this game bioware is not going to see it be lost, they are doing their best to create this game and come January everyone will see that this game is off the charts. Already the game sounds amazing and looks amazing.
I think SWTOR success will depend on how well they get the combat done, and how well done the game is outside of the themepark.
Actually wait.... now that I think about it, what if they pull a Dragon Age 2 and screw it up?
Yes they DO man, the Rift totals are all cumulative totals for all sales, digital to boxed for RIFT on that link. Say what you want but the facts are in the numbers and other information surrounding totals for past sales. SWG did not have 2 million at launch the entire first year+ combined so how can we go from that which was the earlier part of 2000's which had more FANS of Star Wars to years later with not much more Star Wars to create and get older and newer people alike interested again, your stagnant to long numbers will fall off for any fan. I don't think I'm wrong but if I am the sales increase wasn't due to much new players but the systemic wide community of MMORPG players looking to get away from the same old fantasy style and move onto something at least familiar popularized by the Sci-Fi genre.
After being Burned on Vanguard , AOC, Rift , I have learned Wait till trial . Companys these days seem to not care if there product is good at launch they just hype as much as they can & make there investment back on day one with box sales ..
So while people continue to jump into a game as fast as they can & then spend the next month complaining , things won't change
2 million copies/downloads in the first month seems likely. The first week on the other hand seems a little optimistic.
I am sure the game will sell very well, if they can keep the subs long term or not is anybodys guess.
I'm not going to discuss Rift with you anymore, I know you're wrong, it's nonsensical to think that Rift had a mere 127k players in total with 99 very busy and active servers. But I have no official quotes about it and neither can you prove that digital downloads were included in that figure, most people believe their figures are incomplete. But choose whatever you want to believe about Rift.
Forget about Rift, focus on the other stuff.
WAR, AoC and Aion sold close to million at their launch, preorders included.
What makes you think that the combination Star Wars and Bioware will do less?
You're entitled to your opinion, but personally I don't believe SWTOR will do less than those other AAA titles did at their launch.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Fair enough. But how would you know each servers numbers. Did you go to each server and check, also did you have info on server population caps to come to that conclusion. Seems very vague to just say 99 busy servers and active. That link even says on the left in the graph cumulative sales, which means of all sales digital and boxed. Cumulative means of all sources. It's not impossible that Rift only had 127k sales first week, and as Rift became shot down more and more you can see how sales fell off quickly. That site is pretty well known and can be trusted btw.
Aion was a more premier Asian game first, it had more Asian sales then NA sales. Asians went nuts over that crap. War was over hyped and most WOW users bought War to try thinking it be just like WOW and they would have a cooler experience but failed. As far as AoC I don't know anything about on numbers as I have not researched that one yet. And a couple these had press releases suggesting they had more sales then they had by also using the accounts made trick vs actually sold. So I guess we wait and see nonetheless.
Hey guys lets try to stay on topic. This is the SWTOR forum.
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The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
So were these actual predictions, or just generic things that apply to every game ever released and ever will be released?
Also - due to the ratings system, you can't sue a game because of something you see in it. Games are not publicly broadcast, you have to actually, purposefully buy and play them. Think of it like HBO. HBO is a pay-to-view channel, which means you're specifically acknowledging that you want to watch what's on HBO. As such, HBO isn't liable for anything you see or hear on the channel because you are willingly paying to watch that specific channel.
It's also why HBO can do pretty much whatever they want in terms of show content. Nudity, extremely gorey violence, language; whatever.
Everything else here is pretty much a generic statement that applies to any game discussion, as the red text indicates.
This made my brain hurt.
Also- predicting 'massive complaining by a number of people' with ANYTHING related to an MMO is kind of like saying 'I predict that if I drop this safe on your head, you will die.' It's not really a prediction at all, because that's what everyone knows will happen.
The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.
-Elbert Hubbard
Just for compare, PC-exclusive RPG, Witcher 2, 400k first week... 1M is realistic, maybe up to 3M in first month.
I doubt the retention, when player have run out of content, 1-6 month, quite wide estimate, but there about...
WoW is a absolute fluke in MMORPG-market, it was first one to realy introduce MMOs to mass market. After that it had player-history to run for it, place to come back, past achievent, peer presure and so on. It will be much harder to any new game to keep players, compared to the first one.
This is nonsense.
Why?
Because in order to make a meaningful prediction about this subject you need to know
a) How much content will be available at launch
b) How fast the average player will take to go from 1 to 50. Of course there are going to be fanatic players that tear through all or most of the available content before more is released- but there's nothing you can do about that.
c) what endgame content looks like. We just don't know.
d) The schedule for release of post-launch content. Zero info on this as well.
No one in the fan community has suffiecient information to make a meaningful prediction about this sort of thing at this point.
And even regardless of the features of the game, there's no way to say if this games hits a 'sweet spot' of market conditions with players like WoW did, or if it for some reason just doesn't hit as big as they expected.
The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: Be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.
-Elbert Hubbard
My guess is 950K.
3 million would be more than all the WoW US players.
It would also be 1 million less than all WoW copies ever sold.
http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/sales/49494/rift/
Also, according to that Lich King has only sold 2.5 million. Not even 3 million.