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CCP are doomed as a gaming company...discuss.

Well, folks games industry are predicting the end of CCP, and a few other business models...I guess in space nobody can hear you scream at least :)

http://www.gamesbrief.com/2010/10/ten-games-businesse-that-are-doomed/

 


CCP

CCP are the Icelandic developers of Eve Online, the mind-bogglingly intensive MMO set in space. It has committed fans, a strong revenue stream and has been running Evesuccessfully since 2003.

How can I possibly think the company is doomed?

Well, to be truthful, I don’t think it is. I think it has a perfectly good future as a lifestyle business (I don’t think it’s sellable – though that’s a topic for another post).


But Dust 514, on the other hand, there’s a product that’s doomed.

I used to be an investment banker and one of the first rules drummed into me was this: “If you are going to advise someone to make an acquisition, suggest buying a business they understand in a new country, or a new type of business in their own country: buying into a new sector in a new country is a recipe for disaster.”

The people at CCP are experts at building a free-form space game with a subscription model on the open architecture of the web.

Dust 514 is a first-person shooter.

On a console.

With a never-done before connection between a console world and a PC MMO.

It’s wildly ambitious but also, in my view, totally pointless. The integration between the console game and the PC-based MMO will be as unnecessary and expensive as the film maker in The Movies or the customisation features of APB.

It will be hugely difficult to implement, actually subtract from the gameplay experience and cause CCP endless headaches.

I was terrified when I saw the presentation of the game at a conference earlier this year. Every fibre of my being screams that CCP is over-reaching wildly.

I hope that I’m wrong.

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Comments

  • VirusDancerVirusDancer Member UncommonPosts: 3,649

    The author admits that it is an opinionated piece short on fact... he takes the wind out of his own sails.

    I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?

    Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%

  • TylinVTylinV Member Posts: 26

    I don't know that this would spell doom for CCP, but if Dust failed that wouldn't surprise me at all.  It seems counter-productive to make a game that ties in to Eve but make it console only.  But I guess as long as they do a great job on WoD I don't really care image.

  • SheistaSheista Member UncommonPosts: 1,203

    There was an article recently released about an interview with CCP stating they are prepared for Dust to do poorly at launch, and that they intend to nurture a long-term fanbase for the product.  I think that says more for CCP that they know what they are doing.  They are also working on World of Darkness, which has potential to be a sleeper hit and give them a whole new source of developing income.  If that means they are able to offer long-term support for Dust, then it makes me happy.  :)

    http://www.mmocrunch.com/2010/07/14/ccp-prepared-for-console-mmo-dust-514-to-tank-at-launch/

  • pmaurapmaura Member UncommonPosts: 530

    I have to admit it could spell there doom, if they were smart they should have Eve protected or have Dust actually under another company so that any debt or failure that occurs doesnt effect Eve. and hope fully there not devoting so much towards dust that it puts them in a precarious situation.

    But as an Eve Player my biggest issue is that console players are finicky, what happens when the XBOX 2015 comes out or PS5 for example, rarely are the games on new consoles backwards compabtible.

    And Why cant I as a PC gamer play so that I can compete and help out my corp with a ground based dude.

    I think that Dust is highly ambitious but doubt it will sing and destroy CCP.

    I also think Dust is easliy 3 years away

  • ComnitusComnitus Member Posts: 2,462

    Perhaps if DUST was their first game, it'd spell their doom. However, with EVE steadily gaining subs (as always), Incarna coming in 2011 (which will convince many fence-sitters to sub for at least a month), and World of Darkness in development, they're far from doomed.

    image

  • bcrankshawbcrankshaw Member Posts: 547

    Originally posted by Illyssia

     

    I used to be an investment banker

     Oh yes and we all know how much credibility that carries at the moment

     

    I think I'll stick with CCP :)

    "after the time of dice came the day of mice "

  • VirusDancerVirusDancer Member UncommonPosts: 3,649

    As far as DUST 514 itself, it depends on what consoles and on delivery, no?  Whether the game is a box sale or will be available through download for the console...etc.

    I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?

    Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%

  • VirusDancerVirusDancer Member UncommonPosts: 3,649

    Though most of it is opinionated, it would be hard to deny the fact that the EVE subscriber base is not large enough to support a FPS on its own and that the game will have to compete in the general FPS console market... just something to think about.

    Part of what I was wondering with my previous post on which consoles and how it would be delivered.

    I miss the MMORPG genre. Will a developer ever make one again?

    Explorer: 87%, Killer: 67%, Achiever: 27%, Socializer: 20%

  • KithcaKithca Member Posts: 118

    Well, he does say he thinks DUST will fail not CCP...  CCP has managed, successfully, to do something different and not crash and burn...  I seriously doubt they decided to do something for a console without looking into the hardware/software side of it first.

    The outcome of this isn't legitamately predictable, especially considering I don't think any of us have any inside information from CCP to know exactly what's ticking in their buldging, Icelandic brains. They could pull a rabbit out of their hats or it could be a monkey, time will tell.

  • QuirhidQuirhid Member UncommonPosts: 6,230

    Eve is one of very few space MMOs out there. I'd say the main thing it's still standing is because it has no serious competition and they've gained a loyal fanbase. Now they are looking to move to the big leagues. It's a whole different ballgame with console FPS. You really, really have to make a good game for it to do any good. People will not play it just because it is loosely connected to Eve Online.

    If they don't care about Eve Online, why should they play it unless it's close to the quality of Halo, Call of Duty etc. Some heavy hitters these are. It's a big challenge with no previous experience in making either console or FPS games.

    Not to mention they have the WoD thing going on and the, now delayed, Incarna expansion for Eve... It's too much stuff going on. And Eve is starting to show signs of crumbling. People get frustrated. They need to remember that they have to keep the old game running and updated aswell. Something is bound to go wrong.

    They should sink the Dust project. Concentrate on what they know. Baby steps.

    I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky

  • Aki_RossAki_Ross Member Posts: 166

    Originally posted by Illyssia

    I used to be an investment banker

     I'm afraid, you've just shoot yourself in the foot.

     

    CCP will survive even if Dust fails. Simply because it sounds like they're thinking about the future and not just about their pockets. Unlike your former profession.  image

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004

    Originally posted by Aki_Ross

    Originally posted by Illyssia

    I used to be an investment banker

     I'm afraid, you've just shoot yourself in the foot.

     

    CCP will survive even if Dust fails. Simply because it sounds like they're thinking about the future and not just about their pockets. Unlike your former profession.  image

    it sounds like their not really expecting much from Dust... and that their prepared to 'nurse it along' but as CCP do genuinely care about their games... and as you've already pointed out .. the only thing investment bankers care about .. usually has $$ signs in front  of it.. i'll stick with CCP too..  at least we know our money is safe with CCP image

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Member Posts: 2,697

    Rhode Island didn't give the loan to 38 studios just to get to talk with Curt (clearly this guy did zero research into anything when he wrote this) they did it to try and generate business in their state and it happens fairly often.

     

    Essentially Massachusetts is trying to become the California of the East. If you notice, more and more movies/TV shows are being shot in Massachusetts and there have been people working on getting a movie studio out here as well (Mass opened up some tax breaks etc to make it more inviting for filming in their state). They also have good sized game companies such as Turbine, Harmonix (guitar hero games), Irrational games, etc. They also had 38 studios which was trying to become a player in the game world.

     

    Rhode Island had nothing and didn't want to be left out in the cold as more studios took root in New England so they offered Curt a loan to get him to move his shop to Rhode Island. By having 38 studios there they can then try and get other studios to come over by showing how they already have a major player (they want to be anyway) located there so it is clearly a good place for gaming companies.

     

     

    As for CCP and Dust, it is tough to say how it will do. The FPS market on the console has a lot of big names in it that they have to compete with, but in a way they aren't directly competing with those. They are trying to get EvE players and friends of EvE players to be involved in a whole new way and that could result in some decent sales.

  • IrishoakIrishoak Member Posts: 633

    Everyone sees the console market as the place to be, big numbers, huge sales, and thanks to Guitar Hero and it's ilk, massive amounts of DLC being sopped up by willing consumers. It's a developer paradise! Or so they think.

    This is opinion, so grain of salt, but I imagine they believe the money is in the console market. They could mumble something about piracy and the prevention of large scale cheating as well, but I suspect greed is the prime motivator. Which is fine, they do run a company I expect a dog to act like a dog. But it's not greed that has gotten them this far.

    I have two consoles sitting under the TV and I don't intend to pick up a copy, I adore EvE and I like the mixing of genres, I like the concept, I do not like consoles in my PC. It's not peanut butter and chocolate. If Dust was a PC title, all over it. It would be the one time I did something useful in EvE. :)

  • KenFisherKenFisher Member UncommonPosts: 5,035

    Mistitled.  Article refers to a doomed product, not company.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  When I don't understand, I ask.  Such is not intended as criticism.
  • CyberWizCyberWiz Member UncommonPosts: 950

    Totally agree with the article, couple Dust and the incomming microtransactions and CCP has their very own CU-NGE.

    I already cancelled my accounts ( because of the prospect of microtransactions ) and seeking refuge in Ryzom, if Ryzom ever tanks or change their vision completely, I'll prolly stop playing mmorpg's.

    If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
    http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
    Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online

  • NeerDoWellNeerDoWell Member Posts: 184
    You do understand that EVE has had a growing subscriber since the beginning unlike every other MMO. CCP is also very transparent with their numbers as the first thing you see when you open the game is the number of people online. They are also very harsh on ISK (gold) buyers in that when you are caught, and it's not hard to catch people, not only do they remove the purchased currency, they also subtract that amount from your previous wealth leaving some with giant negative bank accounts. ... so on and so forth...

    image
    “If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1000 MPG” - Bill Gates

  • NeerDoWellNeerDoWell Member Posts: 184
    Originally posted by CyberWiz

    Totally agree with the article, couple Dust and the incomming microtransactions and CCP has their very own CU-NGE.
    I already cancelled my accounts ( because of the prospect of microtransactions ) and seeking refuge in Ryzom, if Ryzom ever tanks or change their vision completely, I'll prolly stop playing mmorpg's.

     

    You canceled your account because of rumors about micro transactions? Or do you have something that shows CCP talking about the addition of them?
    edit : non fluff micro transactions

    image
    “If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1000 MPG” - Bill Gates

  • jrs77jrs77 Member Posts: 419

    There's good reasons, why CCP brings Dust 514 only for the consoles: cheating, hacking and game-performance.
    Game-performance has to be the same on all clients in a FPS, so that there's no disadvantages becuase of hardware. And nobody wants to see wallhacks or aimbots ofc, which is way easier to make sure on consoles.

    Anyways, I couldn't care less of Dust 514 not being succesful tbqh, aslong as WoD is going to be succesful ^^

  • FdzzaiglFdzzaigl Member UncommonPosts: 2,433

    I can't deny that the whole console-only game linked to a game with a great many PC users makes me frown.

    I just don't understand why they would do such a thing, putting a completely different game world into your existing one is already risky enough without excluding a large part of the possible playerbase.

    Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!

  • laokokolaokoko Member UncommonPosts: 2,004

    I have no idea, but was shocked when people are saying Fallen Earth only need 10k subscription to survive.

    If their console MMORPG isn't even a big budget game, why does it matter if it have a small but dedicated subscriber.

    Your expectation are just too high if you expect every MMORPG to reach a few hundred thousands subscriber.  Many of which isn't even a big budget game.

    Look at it this way, 2 years after Eve's release I believe they still have very small population, and they still manage to survive. 

  • Rockgod99Rockgod99 Member Posts: 4,640
    I know I'm normally very pro CCP but with every fiber of my being I hope Dust crashes and burns big time on consoles. Why? Because I don't like the idea of some player In another mmo being a deciding factor In my mmo!!!

    If CCP has to release Dust make it a optional paid expansion for EVE on PC only. Let us fight over our shit and not some console player.

    image

    Playing: Rift, LotRO
    Waiting on: GW2, BP

  • Rockgod99Rockgod99 Member Posts: 4,640
    Originally posted by CyberWiz

    Totally agree with the article, couple Dust and the incomming microtransactions and CCP has their very own CU-NGE.
    I already cancelled my accounts ( because of the prospect of microtransactions ) and seeking refuge in Ryzom, if Ryzom ever tanks or change their vision completely, I'll prolly stop playing mmorpg's.

     

    Well atleast you left for a great game (Ryzom ftw!!!!). Seriously though? Why didn't you leave when plex was first introduced ? Everything ccp is adding can be bought with I'n game isk so why not then? EVE has been letting players basically not only use real cash to buy ships and items but they eve allow the purchase of characters with I'n game isk. Why the sudden departure now?

    image

    Playing: Rift, LotRO
    Waiting on: GW2, BP

  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 16,536

    Although i agree with all but maybe one of those business models failing,there is another side to the MMO gaming business,and that is sheer LUCK!.

    I have read articles on so called business experts recognized by the entire industry claim that browser based games is the way to go and is the easiest to gain support for in way of funding,i tend to disagree.Well if they truly beleive these experts,why do they continue to make expensive MMO's?Reason should be obvious,if you get the box sales,the $15 a month can really add up to some nice profit.

    I think too many people see one particular game and think that is the answer and that developer knows what they are doing,again this is all wrong,nothing to substantiate that what so ever.There is ONLY one developer imo that has the bull by the horns and seems to stay not only in the limelight but maintain it's future with ongoing upgrades in technology,that is of course .....EPIC games.

    When i look at CCP and it's launch of Eve,i thought right away it was a game doomed to fail in the first year,just as i thought Wow would not amount to anything.The thing i overlooked was a following,Blizzard and their online gaming net had a following,space games have a following and niche gaming has a following.CCP survived because their really is nothing else out there,SWG is about the only game an SOE has gained a love hate relationship.SO far CCP has done little to anger their only niche crowd ,so they can pretty much continue to offer little and maintain it's fanbase.

    I personally do not feel CCP is much of a developer at all,there is so much gray area in their ability ,shown in Eve,that i find it hard to believe they can advance their skills as a developer.The reason is because they no longer are some small developer housing maybe 40 people,they have been quite large for some time now,yet have shown me VERY little in the way of true effort or ability.You don't house over 600 people and have little to show for it,what Eve has maintained as a game could have easily been done with their same 40-60 people.

    No matter how i feel or what other so called experts feel,there is nothing on the horizon to over take many of these developers titles,until that happens,there is a niche crowd waiting to play anything that meets their demands.No competition means ...easy street,no need to perform at a higher level.This is of course why Epic games is the leader,they DO advance their tech,they never sleep and always remain one step ahead or at least on even terms.CCP is no longer poor,so their lack of effort over 7-8 years,proves to me that ONLY LUCK,and that niche following will allow this developer to survive.I guess there is always the fact that they probably have a pretty nice bank account making all that money from a low budget game like Eve,this will allow them some time to get their act together.

    Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.

  • Rockgod99Rockgod99 Member Posts: 4,640
    Did you just call EVE low budget and say CCP has done very little with EVE in the last seven years? Do you mind sharing those drugs because they must be awesome...

    image

    Playing: Rift, LotRO
    Waiting on: GW2, BP

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