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So, how large will LotrO player population become after going F2P?

2

Comments

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690

    Your business model is only as good as your game. Since only a small handful are playing it willl not matter what business model they choose. It still is just an average mmo that failed.

    30
  • HeretiqueHeretique Member RarePosts: 1,500


    Originally posted by xx19kilosold
    Lotro WILL NEVER be the same...ever.

    I agree with this, there will actually be people in the starting areas and the zone after that.

  • DraemosDraemos Member UncommonPosts: 1,518

    I figure it will hit 1 million active accounts by the end of the year.

  • Skooma2Skooma2 Member UncommonPosts: 697

    I'm just waiting to see hundreds and hundreds of newb hobbits running all over the Shire fighting over copper node spawns!

    Hedonismbot: Your latest performance was as delectable as dipping my bottom over and over into a bath of the silkiest oils and creams.

  • seabass2003seabass2003 Member Posts: 4,144

    It will probably do as good as DDO at the least.

     

    "2 Million new players since launch. 20% reacquisition of cancelled players. Acquisition costs drastically reduced, with 3x click through on ads. 5x Peak concurrent. 10x Montly uniques. 5x revenue. Even better is still growing, last month was best yet."

     

    If the above quote is any indication LOTRO will be doing really good.

    In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.

  • EsherdonEsherdon Member UncommonPosts: 47

    Even if this leads to the game being updated more often will the updates be any good or just items to add to there item mall and new content for low level areas.

    This might have a negative impact on current subs I am waiting as it is in the end game area for something new to do...

    Also with the rep/radiance/skirmish/LI's grind I really do not want to make any alts knowing how much grind would be ahead of me.

    "Onward to adventure".

  • SovrathSovrath Member LegendaryPosts: 28,406

    Originally posted by xx19kilosold

     

    Why would players now that is F2P all of a sudden feel like the game is great anedworthwhile? NOTHING has changed from the trainwreck of design choices that Turbine has made that has led the game to this point. So now all of a sudden F2P players will just ignore the lack of content at endgame, the insane LI grind or the stupid gear gating that had run the game and the Lotro IP into the ground? Yea that must be it. Long time fans and palyers that have been through thick and thin have given up, but "johnyy free to play" sees the merit and briliance in the game that the people who have played since launch could not

     

    Get real.

    It's very easily understood and there are examples of it outside of gaming all the time.

    People tend to pay for things that they either believe in, are willing to support, feel is good value for the money or they think "might" be good and are willing to take the chance based on things like mood, previous work by the creators, ease of access, etc.

    When people pay for things they expect more. When they don't pay for things they tend to be wiling to be less critical as they lose nothing but their time and can withdraw at any point without losing thier hard earned money.

    Part of that is how hard they have to earn their money and what they consider a lot of money.

    To a college student or someone who has to work two jobs to get by, spending 100.00 each on theater tickets is probably not going to sit well. to a multi millonaire, 100.00 won't even be felt.

    So for most people, if they are going to pay for something it better be worth it or worth the risk.

    But for "free" people can come and go depending on their mood, they will get what entertainment out of it that they want and not feel like they have invested anything more than their curiosity. If game play gets tedious they can simply remove the game from their hard drive, chalk up the experience as a pleasant diversion in best case scenario and move on without feelign buyer's remorse.

    When people pay for things they tend to feel an anchor to what they paid for and might adopt a sort of "well I'm here, I might as well make the best of it" over a "hey, this isn't enjoyable, let's get ice cream instead" mentality.

  • someforumguysomeforumguy Member RarePosts: 4,063

    Itll get a large influx of new F2P players who want to try the game. The question is how many of those new players stay and purchase things. Maybe Turbine just expects for many shorttime players who make a few purchases before moving on.

  • greenbow54greenbow54 Member UncommonPosts: 128

    Originally posted by xx19kilosold

     

    You call me a troll, then say I have to back up my opinons with fact, then you turn around and give an opinion with no citatations either, pot calling the kettle black, to funny.

     

    Like I said in another post, some of Lotro's biggest fans will have a hard time coming to terms with "why" the game is where its at at this point, you I guess are one of them.

     Apparently you missed the fact that Lotro is one of the most successful MMOs out there right now.

    You keep asking people to justify your own false claim in sub numbers. Can you provide links saying that subs are below 600k? doubtful

    image

  • wes4mu089wes4mu089 Member Posts: 19

    Originally posted by xx19kilosold

    Originally posted by wes4mu089


    Originally posted by xx19kilosold


    Originally posted by Loke666

    How active must you be to be considered part of the player population?

    10 hours each week?

    A few hours each month?

    To just logg in and check the trader/auction house? 

    Or just to have a character?

    For a P2P game this is an easy figure, you just count every paying account. F2P games are different, some games like Perfect world have amazing numbers but the questionis who among them is actually an active player.

    In this case: Will Turbine earn money on this or not? I guess it is likely since they did earn more on DDO.

    As for actual players I think you will see an increase in players when you play, 100% in the noob zones and 25% in the higher levels are likely but those noob zones number might be a lot larger. I doubt most of those players max out their characters however.

    Why would players now that is F2P all of a sudden feel like the game is great anedworthwhile? NOTHING has changed from the trainwreck of design choices that Turbine has made that has led the game to this point. So now all of a sudden F2P players will just ignore the lack of content at endgame, the insane LI grind or the stupid gear gating that had run the game and the Lotro IP into the ground? Yea that must be it. Long time fans and palyers that have been through thick and thin have given up, but "johnyy free to play" sees the merit and briliance in the game that the people who have played since launch could not

     

    Get real.

    I think people would actually care about what was being said by you if your provided information based on fact,  and not opinion, because frankly, you come off as a troll and nothing more. LOTRO has not by ANY means deteriorated. Yes, it lacks in the number of subscriptions it had at its peak, but by no means is dead, nor does it lack content. I've played MANY MMO's, and LOTRO to this day remains the most frequently updated game with new content with every patch. Yes, they've slowed down on their patch releases since Mines of Moria, but I think the new model will only increase that. 

    I've played LOTRO for 3 years now, and it is one of few games I have ever played that never resulted in server merges as a result to compensate for the subs they had been losing. That being said, its safe to say that LOTRO has been doing well, or atleast well enough. As Turbine does not and most likely will not release their subscription info, this can only be speculated however. But to say that the game is a trainwreck of design choices, that has led a game, (a great game, mind you) into the ground, when it is clearly doing well.... Well sir, you are either delusional, or a troll who wants to rant about their LOTRO experience not being what they wanted it to be.

    As far as the F2P model goes, I think Turbine made this choice, not because LOTRO had ran dry, but because upon seeing the success of DDO's F2P model, it seemed to be the best way to make more cash out of their game. Greedy? Maybe, but their a business afterall, so what do you expect?

    LOTRO had a rocky start, but it has been updated time and time again that today's LOTRO is not anything close to what it was on release. Saying that it lacks content, has no value, and furthermore, that LOTRO's Long time players who've been through Thick and Thin have given up? Thats just untrue, this coming from one of those long time vets, who have remained with the game through thick and thin since Beta.

    Go away. Nobody likes a troll.

    You call me a troll, then say I have to back up my opinons with fact, then you turn around and give an opinion with no citatations either, pot calling the kettle black, to funny.

     

    Like I said in another post, some of Lotro's biggest fans will have a hard time coming to terms with "why" the game is where its at at this point, you I guess are one of them.

    Quite the contrary. If LOTRO would have continued on with P2P, finances wouldn't have been an issue for them for quite a long time before it started dying out, IF it started dying out... (which eventually most all MMO's do). LOTRO doesn't have a small customer base. The only statistical facts I can provide you are that of the 2008 DFC Revenue Estimate... and even then, that is still an estimate. LOTRO was tied in 4th place for the most revenue generating MMO's of that year. Now, two years later, having played the games it was tied with, and LOTRO, I returned to LOTRO because the AoC Community had deteriorated, while LOTRO community still remained (I can only speak for my two most played servers, Landroval and Brandywine.) Age of Conan has resulted to two server merges since launch, and it is still quickly dying. What other AAA MMO's are there to compare to? WoW? (an anomaly)

    I can only provide you the proof of what I've seen with my own eyes. The community is still there, there have been no server merges, and the Dev's have even made public statements on the forums that the game has been doing well. What else do you want? A written statement from Turbine with their official annual revenues? You're not gonna get it.

    So now that we can all see that there is no proof of how the game is doing subscriber base, neither you or I can say that the game is doing good or bad in that regard.

    You also claimed that their has been no content added.

    Since Launch, there have been a total of six land expansions (two you had to pay for), one of which was actually the underground continent of Moria. (anyone who knows the lore of Moria, knows that it was QUITE huge.) Which included five or six regions within Moria itself. All together that makes 11-12 new regions in the game since it's launch, all with their own personal content. In all of these regions were introduced new raids, reputation items, quests, epic quests, upon many other things. 

    As if thats not enough, what systems has the game introduced aside from the new regions since Launch?

    Player Housing and Neighborhoods is a huge one.

    The Skirmish System

    The Cosmetic System

    Session Play

    and I'm sure there are many others I could list if I cared to go back through all the patch notes... which I don't.

    The proof is in the pudding. Turbine has done a LOT to add more and more endgame content with every update. Even with F2P coming, Enedwaith (the region of Tharbad and the pass of Rohan) is going to be released along with it.

    Your accusations of their being no content are just untrue. End of.

    Lastly, I understand quite well why Turbine is at the point it is now, choosing to introduce this F2P model. The success of DDO's F2P model brought in over 500% of their latest monthly revenue prior to the release of DDO F2P, and that was from a game that was slowly dying. Its clear its a proven system to make more money, and that is Turbine's #1 goal. They are a business after all. Now, LOTRO on the other hand is not in the same position that DDO was. It is in no means dying, it has a large player base who continues to subscribe, the majority of the community (atleast that on my server) is still there and have been there for years.... and will likely be there a little longer. So its hard to tell what the success of the F2P Model will be for LOTRO. Its a risk, but considering that the model itself isn't a 100% F2P system, I doubt they will lose any money over it.

  • OdyssesOdysses Member Posts: 581

    I definitely see this as a huge move for Warner Bros., and was the whole reason they bought Turbine.   With DDO going to F2P they have the blueprint for their online stratagy now.   DDO was an experiment and the numbers they were able to produce showed how successful the model works.  DDO was a game that definitely was in decline and has now been completely revived.  Now that they have worked out the bugs and they have a much more casual mass market IP in LoTRO, Warner Bros (Multi Billion Dollar Corporation) behind it from the getgo and giving it adequete funding this should be a major winfall for LoTRO.  I would expect the headlines to be just like WoW was breaking new milestones.   All that press is great viral advertising. 500k new players, 1 million new players etc.

    So expect to see everything from farmville like gamecards in 7-11 for LoTRO to much more visual game adds on myspace and other social websites touting Play Lord of the Rings for Free!!!.   Next a very heavy Rohan expansion push after the F2P launch in the Fall.   Then of course the Hobbit Movies for 2011 & 2012.   You will definitely see 30 second LoTRO ads in each preview of the Hobbit movies.

    At the bare minimum with F2P Lotro will have an influx of 2+ million new players worldwide.   It will be really interesting to see how many stay and subscribe or just use the item shop for small transactions.   But the numbers will probably be really impressive to say the least.

  • xx19kilosoldxx19kilosold Member Posts: 209

    Originally posted by greenbow54

    Originally posted by xx19kilosold

     

    You call me a troll, then say I have to back up my opinons with fact, then you turn around and give an opinion with no citatations either, pot calling the kettle black, to funny.

     

    Like I said in another post, some of Lotro's biggest fans will have a hard time coming to terms with "why" the game is where its at at this point, you I guess are one of them.

     Apparently you missed the fact that Lotro is one of the most successful MMOs out there right now.

    You keep asking people to justify your own false claim in sub numbers. Can you provide links saying that subs are below 600k? doubtful

    Can you provide links that say they are above 200k?

  • green13green13 Member UncommonPosts: 1,341

    Turbine have always been far too embarassed to release their subscription numbers. They publicly predicted they'd net over 1 million and fell far short.

    http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/150k-1m.png

    The figures on this site are an estimate, and there was a note (on the previous site) suggesting that LOTRO's estimates may be 50k too high (based on a supposed insider's figures) but they chose to err on the side of generosity.

    Definitely well below 600k though.

  • green13green13 Member UncommonPosts: 1,341

    Originally posted by seabass2003

    It will probably do as good as DDO at the least.

    "2 Million new players since launch. 20% reacquisition of cancelled players. Acquisition costs drastically reduced, with 3x click through on ads. 5x Peak concurrent. 10x Montly uniques. 5x revenue. Even better is still growing, last month was best yet."

    If the above quote is any indication LOTRO will be doing really good.

    It's no indication at all.

    Selective verbal reports of statistics are almost always ridiculously skewed.

    Eg. 2 million new players - in the free-to-play market that's really quite low.

    Eg. 20% reacquisition of cancelled players - that doesn't mean much if they only had a small number of players to begin with. At their peak they were estimated to have around 90000 players. So they reacquired a whopping 17500 players. But "20%" sounds so much more impressive doesn't it?

    Eg. 5 x revenue - obviously revenue is their bottom line and a 5x increase is substantial, but DDO bombed spectacularly and their revenue accordingly would have been terrible. So if they were making a measly $100 a month before and were making $500 a month now, they could accurately report a fivefold increase in revenue and still be doing very badly.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Another for the guessing game: how large a player population do you think DDO and LotrO have now?

     

    This is what we know:

     

    Martin Trembley said this in an interview a couple of days ago:

    "MT: That's right, Dungeons & Dragons Online right now is about eight percent of the market, LOTRO  is number eight in the marketplace with five percent. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. That positions Warner Bros. right away in MMOs, and that's clearly a direction we're headed in the future."

     

    And this is what was being said in March about active player and subs of DDO:

    [since F2P] the peak CCU (peak concurrent users, the maximum number of players online at any given time) did go up by five times since the subscription days, monthly active players went up by ten times, and monthly revenues have risen by five times

     

    Problem is, it's hard to guess what exactly they're measuring in the first statement: we can only say for sure that the number of MMO gamers playing DDO is 160% of those playing LotrO. And 8% of the total market, how should I read that? Can this be correct?

    If we say that WoW has 10 million of players, then LotrO would be at least 5% = 500,000 gamers. At least, because I haven't even added all the other MMO games. Or has there been an extensive market research under all kinds of MMO gamers, on which the results are based upon? At the moment the 5%-8% seem strange.

    But if LotrO has a marketshare of 5% now, I expect it to at least double when it goes into the F2P hybrid model (it doesn't seem full-F2P, as far as I've read).

     

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • uohaloranuohaloran Member Posts: 811

    I say nothing can hurt it. Anything to make the zones feel more lively would be positive to me. It's the biggest issue that I've got with MMOs lately; too much space with too few people in them.

    Also, I wish WoW would pick up on LotRO's outfit system. For as many things these companies copy from one another anymore, I can't seem to grasp why they wouldn't want something so awesome.

  • seabass2003seabass2003 Member Posts: 4,144

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Another for the guessing game: how large a player population do you think DDO and LotrO have now?

     

    This is what we know:

     

    Martin Trembley said this in an interview a couple of days ago:

    "MT: That's right, Dungeons & Dragons Online right now is about eight percent of the market, LOTRO  is number eight in the marketplace with five percent. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. That positions Warner Bros. right away in MMOs, and that's clearly a direction we're headed in the future."

     

    And this is what was being said in March about active player and subs of DDO:

    [since F2P] the peak CCU (peak concurrent users, the maximum number of players online at any given time) did go up by five times since the subscription days, monthly active players went up by ten times, and monthly revenues have risen by five times

     

    Problem is, it's hard to guess what exactly they're measuring in the first statement: we can only say for sure that the number of MMO gamers playing DDO is 160% of those playing LotrO. And 8% of the total market, how should I read that? Can this be correct?

    If we say that WoW has 10 million of players, then LotrO would be at least 5% = 500,000 gamers. At least, because I haven't even added all the other MMO games. Or has there been an extensive market research under all kinds of MMO gamers, on which the results are based upon? At the moment the 5%-8% seem strange.

    But if LotrO has a marketshare of 5% now, I expect it to at least double when it goes into the F2P hybrid model (it doesn't seem full-F2P, as far as I've read).

     

    If you are going to use WoW for figuring out the market share I would probably only go with the subscriptions in North America and the EU/Aussie locations not worldwide.  Not sure how many that equals for WoW but it would make more sense to have 5% + 8% = 13% of NA and EU/Aussie for LOTRO. I only say this because 500,000 subs to LOTRO seems a bit on the high side but not unbelievable by any means.

    In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.

  • Xyfire1Xyfire1 Member Posts: 128

    LOTRO is a great, solid game. It's not jawdropping or aweing(though, it does not fail to have some of those moments). I can see a fairly big increase of players by going F2P. It's as simple as that.

  • XyanogenXyanogen Member Posts: 4

    i am sure 99% of the people who look at this thread have a LoTRO account and assuming so im sure that there will be th standard trend of when a new MMORPG comes out

     

    There will be 250k+ people suscribe, 150k cancel after a month and the other 100k forget they are subscribed to a MMO.  I know its going F2P but im sure there are subscriber benefits and i am one of the. i just found out im paying 50+ bucks a month for MMO''s i forgot to cancel. Im not trying to rant but i think im not the only one who realized theyved been paying for months for an MMO they havent played... In months. BTW fuck grammer

     

    Out

  • XyanogenXyanogen Member Posts: 4

    at least have a trial account

  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,211

    Originally posted by seabass2003

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Another for the guessing game: how large a player population do you think DDO and LotrO have now?

     

    This is what we know:

     

    Martin Trembley said this in an interview a couple of days ago:

    "MT: That's right, Dungeons & Dragons Online right now is about eight percent of the market, LOTRO  is number eight in the marketplace with five percent. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. That positions Warner Bros. right away in MMOs, and that's clearly a direction we're headed in the future."

     

    And this is what was being said in March about active player and subs of DDO:

    [since F2P] the peak CCU (peak concurrent users, the maximum number of players online at any given time) did go up by five times since the subscription days, monthly active players went up by ten times, and monthly revenues have risen by five times

     

    Problem is, it's hard to guess what exactly they're measuring in the first statement: we can only say for sure that the number of MMO gamers playing DDO is 160% of those playing LotrO. And 8% of the total market, how should I read that? Can this be correct?

    If we say that WoW has 10 million of players, then LotrO would be at least 5% = 500,000 gamers. At least, because I haven't even added all the other MMO games. Or has there been an extensive market research under all kinds of MMO gamers, on which the results are based upon? At the moment the 5%-8% seem strange.

    But if LotrO has a marketshare of 5% now, I expect it to at least double when it goes into the F2P hybrid model (it doesn't seem full-F2P, as far as I've read).

     

    If you are going to use WoW for figuring out the market share I would probably only go with the subscriptions in North America and the EU/Aussie locations not worldwide.  Not sure how many that equals for WoW but it would make more sense to have 5% + 8% = 13% of NA and EU/Aussie for LOTRO. I only say this because 500,000 subs to LOTRO seems a bit on the high side but not unbelievable by any means.

    Try 3.5M for NA + EU this puts LoTRO at 175k+

  • frogifrogi Member Posts: 18

    o/

     

    Don't have a LotrO account, but will have one after it goes hybrid.  Did so with DDO and actually paid them some money for expansions on my account and son's account.

     

    If I have to pay an "entry fee" for a game, it ain't gonna happen.  If it has a trial or if it is hybrid, I'll give it a shot (and possibly some $$)

  • ThorkuneThorkune Member UncommonPosts: 1,969

    I will go back to Lotro as soon as it launches as a f2p. I have always liked Lotro, but the population is too low. The only thing I dread is the disappearance of the mature community that exists now.

  • frogifrogi Member Posts: 18

    Excuse the reply that was here originally.  It was unfair and added nothing to the convo

     

    That being said, I believe that the hybrid model will help the game.  It isn't a true f2p (if it uses the same model as DDO).  DDo has a severe limitation to what content is available so the free ride gamers won't stay long.

     

    Will the new players go VIP after they get hooked?  Likely not, since buying the content makes it your forever as opposed to subbing which unlocks everything as long as you're subbed

  • seabass2003seabass2003 Member Posts: 4,144

    Originally posted by Superman0X

    Originally posted by seabass2003


    Originally posted by cyphers

    Another for the guessing game: how large a player population do you think DDO and LotrO have now?

     

    This is what we know:

     

    Martin Trembley said this in an interview a couple of days ago:

    "MT: That's right, Dungeons & Dragons Online right now is about eight percent of the market, LOTRO  is number eight in the marketplace with five percent. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. Combined, thirteen percent of MMO gamers are playing Turbine games. That positions Warner Bros. right away in MMOs, and that's clearly a direction we're headed in the future."

     

    And this is what was being said in March about active player and subs of DDO:

    [since F2P] the peak CCU (peak concurrent users, the maximum number of players online at any given time) did go up by five times since the subscription days, monthly active players went up by ten times, and monthly revenues have risen by five times

     

    Problem is, it's hard to guess what exactly they're measuring in the first statement: we can only say for sure that the number of MMO gamers playing DDO is 160% of those playing LotrO. And 8% of the total market, how should I read that? Can this be correct?

    If we say that WoW has 10 million of players, then LotrO would be at least 5% = 500,000 gamers. At least, because I haven't even added all the other MMO games. Or has there been an extensive market research under all kinds of MMO gamers, on which the results are based upon? At the moment the 5%-8% seem strange.

    But if LotrO has a marketshare of 5% now, I expect it to at least double when it goes into the F2P hybrid model (it doesn't seem full-F2P, as far as I've read).

     

    If you are going to use WoW for figuring out the market share I would probably only go with the subscriptions in North America and the EU/Aussie locations not worldwide.  Not sure how many that equals for WoW but it would make more sense to have 5% + 8% = 13% of NA and EU/Aussie for LOTRO. I only say this because 500,000 subs to LOTRO seems a bit on the high side but not unbelievable by any means.

    Try 3.5M for NA + EU this puts LoTRO at 175k+

    Ok, this number seems about right. Sounds like they were talking about the NA/EU market shares then.

    In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.

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