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I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009
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There goes this poster's credibility for all future.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, and by June 2008 there were so many doomsayers around AoC that blind squirrels everywhere predicted their doom. ;-)
Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut, Even a Fanboi finds a dingleberry to hang on to in spite of the odds. So this is what you offer as your proof that WoW is bad? Brilliant. You cannot come up with anything more specific or relevant than a genetic rant. WoW is already on the way down, maybe not quickly right now, but the terribad expansion they just released can't help. Any proof? This is what you draw as conclusion from the totally irrelevant rant above? Can you also predict when the Sun will explode? Exept for the most dedicated WoW worshipper most normal players are probably just well bored and would jump at the chance to leave WoW, You know everyone who play WoW? conducted interviews with them and come up with some solid conclusions? You draw a representative sample? Or you just cook this up out of thin air? many have already tried but since AOC and WAR were basically the same game with pvp addons and glitchy as hell it was just a chioce of which boring WoW clone do I want to play. Many have already tried? How many? Ah I know, the number is 1, and that is you. You is your many. Good.
To Mwaji. Stop preaching with assertions and empty statements. I can replace the word WoW in your passage above with the name of any game. I can replace it with Mcdonalds, with instant noodles, or just about anything, and it reads the same. ==> bullshit
To the OP: you predicted something half the world already knows after beta, AoC was not really great after lvl 20. Not that you are wrong, but that does not immediately establish you as the god of know all. As for predicting WoW to lose half a million sub soon, the facts in hand looks unlikely. Long queues every evening, up to 2 hours. New servers, top on sales chart forever. All these are facts not assertion or empty bluffs. There are no MMOs on earth that can come remotely close to this. Aion? Its too new to tell. War and most other games are closing servers and running ghost servers. Eve is unique and very impressive, but it is steady rather than explosive growth.
The size of WoW is not a proof it is good. It is a solid evidence that it is popular among some million people, and has been so for a few years. There is no doubt that there are dissidents, people who cannot stop talking bad about WoW, people who simply left the game quietly, and people who played and yet grumble on web pages. So what? Every game has some such people. The size of WoW does solidly refute your claim that WoW is dying. If 10+ million sub is dying, all other games are already dead.
To hidden1: I appreciate your zeal for DF. Thank you. The obnoxious DF community seals it for me. You can love it, preach it, dream about it every night, talk about it forever on every web. But it is not going to work for me. I play to enjoy, and I do not enjoy the company of quite some of the DF preachers. I appreciate them going to DF, saving me the trouble of adding them to my ignore list in my games. As for how successful DF will be. No one knows. From the way it is going, I wonder if it is going to launch at all. 10 days to launch and nobody knows about subscription policy, free trials, downloading sites. Hell no one even knows how many classes there are (there are none), what skills there are (are they meaning skills?) what professions or crafting there will be (does gear matter in the game)? No one knows anything. This might be a deliberate secret, or maybe I smell something fishy.
To all those who claim they left WoW: ok noted. There are new people joining and old peeps coming back everyday, replacing those that have gone. Nothing special. Some of your babble about beating the game in 1 week. So? That is the only aspect of WoW you cared for? That is not the only aspect of WoW I enjoyed. I enjoyed some of the story line. Some of the quests are sheer surprise, notably the quest to save the boss of the Undercity from a betrayal. Yes you can only do it so many times before it grows old, but if you do not play 24/7, it does take a year or so of casual gaming to get through the bulk of the content, and by then I am one year older. Who knows what will happen to me, another game? another alt? another expansion? Until that day happens I am not worried. Your departure proved nothing to me, means little to me, and will not affect my material enjoyment of the game so far. Its like me enjoying my favourite dish in a restaurant and somebody outside on the street signalling to me how much he feel fed up with that dish. So what? do I need to immediately hate the dish and flee the eating place?
And you being so bad that you need addons to beat encounters is the games fault?
It's always the games fault.
Well OP looks like you were WAY off for AoC huh. The games been growing.. growing slowly but still growing. not dead in any way..
hmm and as for WOW..you say "the demise of wow is here" yet they too have been growing yet faster.. a where is this 9million you say?. As of DEC 30 2008 they still had and do have 11.5..
And Darkfall and Aion. well most KNOW this .. you figured it out?
What you have done is nothing more than guessing and not very good sorry..
By my estimates Darkfall will not hurt WoW much in the first 6 months. It will however kill AoC, WAR and hurt EvE badly. WoW will in time feel the sting of Darkfall but it will take 2 years and it will not be 'killing' WoW.
After playing WoW for so long the game hasn't much to offer besides new content. And it always comes down to the same thing: grind for better gear. That's it really. And mechanics haven't changed much. In fact things got more and more easy over time. Have you been in 5 man instances as of late? No one seems to know about CC anymore. No tactics, no thinking. Just bind the next group of mobs to the tank and bomb them to hell. PvP? Not very funny at the moment unless you play a FoTM class. Especially for healers there's no room in this game unless you play a holy paladin (thanks to plate, bubble and strong instant heals). PvP at it's current state is all about who can fire his nuke combo first, like we has back in vanilla WoW. It might get better over time, sure. But currently it's more fun to play a _real_ shooter where at least proper aiming skill is required.
This game really lacks serious levels of depth. It's so wattered down it's getting sick. And even RP is dead thanks to the new generation of WoW players who only care about bragging around with their ultraz shiney epixx.
I agree with most of what you said. Although I wouldnt be able to exactly pinpoint when it would start to decine, it is true with almost all MMO's, especially the mighty, the longer you stretch the rubberband, the harder it comes back and whips you. WoW has been stretched for just about all its worth, and its gonna start to drop eventually. But I dont exactly understand how you got the numbers you put up of 500k a week, that sounds kind-of extreme, seems like something that would only happen if the game was litteraly broke.
As far as DF is concerned, their is too little information to judge whether it is as terrible or will turn out as terrible as you predict it will , even though you base the prediction itself on the lack of information most likely.
Lastly, Aion will not be a niche asian grinder as it is litteraly one of the most quest/story driven MMO's i've took notice to in a long time, this game is going to have less grinding than just about any other MMO out their. I have seen people play on live video streams, 1-20 in about 30 hours, 20-30 in about 20 hours. All along the way, they did a TON of quest progression, awsome cutscenes, epic battles, some PVP, well just in general I didn't see the guy camp a single spot more than 10 minutes. And grinding is usually when you kill the same mob or in the same area for hour upon hour.
Although the game isnt "Asian Grind", The fact that people wont go and do any kind of research, people such as yourself, no offense, will be partly the reason it wont do terribly well in the US due to this eastern MMO stereotype. That and upon the fact that you either like eastern style MMO's or you dont. It is not a very Niche game in the east, but once you bring it over to the west, it becomes quite niche to us.
So where will all of these lost subscribers go? All of your predictions seem very vague, and seem more like current trends.
Cheers!
MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S
So where will all of these lost subscribers go? All of your predictions seem very vague, and seem more like current trends.
Cheers!
Well those trends weren't happening yet but have now started as many of the hardcore guilds in WoW (and even many of the mid-pack guilds) drop sharply in numbers - recruitment threads for guilds are popping up on every server forum as people are leaving WoW, either for other mmos or to single player (and in many cases console) games. And soon enough those who remain playing WoW will give up trying to shore up their flagging guild memberships.
I think most of the hardcore WoW players are both bored of WoW and have also realised that Ulduar and other upcoming content will be a disappointment. There is no way Blizzard can go from the far too easy level of challenge of the current PVE to a PVE raid instance that is challenging and rewarding for hardcore players.
Darkfall is releasing soon and looks very low budget, I think some people will try it but the disappointment will be very public. As to the comments of Aion not being a grind mmo, I have heard that the only way to have a powerful char in Aion was not only by grinding, but also by botting (or hacking) - so I stand by my description of what the gameplay of Aion is likely to be.
I have also been told that numbers in both WAR and EVE have increased from December to January, and I predicted that this trend would accelerate over the next few weeks and months so I stand by my predictions in the original post.
So where will all of these lost subscribers go? All of your predictions seem very vague, and seem more like current trends.
Cheers!
Well those trends weren't happening yet but have now started as many of the hardcore guilds in WoW (and even many of the mid-pack guilds) drop sharply in numbers - recruitment threads for guilds are popping up on every server forum as people are leaving WoW, either for other mmos or to single player (and in many cases console) games. And soon enough those who remain playing WoW will give up trying to shore up their flagging guild memberships.
I think most of the hardcore WoW players are both bored of WoW and have also realised that Ulduar and other upcoming content will be a disappointment. There is no way Blizzard can go from the far too easy level of challenge of the current PVE to a PVE raid instance that is challenging and rewarding for hardcore players.
Darkfall is releasing soon and looks very low budget, I think some people will try it but the disappointment will be very public. As to the comments of Aion not being a grind mmo, I have heard that the only way to have a powerful char in Aion was not only by grinding, but also by botting (or hacking) - so I stand by my description of what the gameplay of Aion is likely to be.
I have also been told that numbers in both WAR and EVE have increased from December to January, and I predicted that this trend would accelerate over the next few weeks and months so I stand by my predictions in the original post.
Ahahaha .... ahahahahhahahha .... bahahahahahahahahah
I love the retarded logic about the recruitment threads lol.
Explain the Queues on the majority of the EU servers and the emergency migrations that started late Dec and are still going , go on , i really want to see your twisted logic about that one .
Well I have some friends in Paris who know a bit about the European numbers at least, and it seems there's already been a very heavy dip going from December to mid-Jan so it looks like this is happening and the exodus out of World of Warcraft has started in a much bigger way than even I expected.
Perhaps it's a sign of the economic times that people are less willing to play subscription based games but the cancellation wave seems to be surprisingly large and likely to get even bigger very quickly.
I can only surmise that the makers of Darkfall and Aion (and other upcoming MMOs) wish they had completed their projects a bit earlier, this is going to be a bad year for MMO game subscription numbers, and it's already showing in World of Warcraft.
Oh now I'm sold!
This thread's gotta be a joke.Screenshot taken at around 14:00 central european time.
http://img79.imageshack.us/my.php?image=wowscrnshot010809003148nu1.jpg
Oh brilliant you have friends in Paris who knows something nobody knows, some big secret that has huge value to many business firms/competitors, some big trade secrets, and your friend is sharing that secret with you, while you are sharing the secret with us here. Is this not a national security breach?
First, we do not know you or your friend. You and your friends and a vague statement about number drops is not evidence. Its called hearsay.
Second, figures published by various sources, long queues, new migration servers, sales record, all these are more reliable information. You have been dodging all these counter-examples and keeps cooking up new vague statements. You start with you brave assertion that you are wise with your AoC "prediction", then you start telling us you think, then you start tell us you have friends.
When will you start telling us you have reliable sources, in the FBI, CIA or somewhere, that WoW is dying?
If you still want to pretend to be credible, start addressing the counter ideas raised, or keep rambling to yourself about how WoW must die b/c you know it. By addressing the others, I mean you provide credible information, not just another friend, or friend's friend, or friend's friend's friend, or his dog.
I will be critical of Aion when I actually get to play it. I live in the US, and it's gonna be a LONG time before I get to see the game in a release. I don't sign up for betas because for me, its a waste of time. I'll play the game when it's in a box and on a shelf.
As for being critical of Warhammer, well I played that so after playing it I think I can give an honest opinion of what I thought the game was about. How about YOU be more critical than the general "well, War has some minor problems it needs to fix". You see fans say that all the time when the endgame is broken. How is tht a minor thing?
No reason to take it easy on a game when all the fans are already doing it for them.
If you like it thats really good, but don't get mad at me because I tried the Koolaid and it didn't have any sugar in it.
"TO MICHAEL!"
I know I am done with WoW. Too many extremely glaring class imbalances with extremely slow or absolutely no fixes (How long has charge and intercept been broken for warriors? Answer: Years). It's a real shame too. I've been playing WoW since day one and have all three collectors editions. It's a shame to see how Blizzard completely messing up their game.
Everything has gone down-hill since the introduction of Arena's and the only way of staying competitive in any form of PvP is to do them or get dominated by those who do them simply because of the gear rewarded from Arena's. I am a huge fan of Battlegrounds. Unfortunately, Blizzard insists on forcing Arena ratings down my throat. It's a damned dueling contest for crying out loud, which WoW is in no way nor ever will be balanced enough to hand out the absolute best PvP rewards in the game. You can see it now with Holy Pally/DK keyboard turning scrub teams in the 2100 bracket. It's become an utter disgrace.
Wintergrasp on my server is un-playable. The amount of lag is unbelievable. It's a shame because it looks like it could be a lot of fun. Unfortunately it takes 30+ seconds to use any abilities once in the keep.
People say PvE is the best thing about WoW and that it's hard. The only "hard" encounter in WoW at the moment is 3Drake Sarth and it's not even hard! It's a gear check, nothing more.
Maybe Blizzard can fix some of these problems, maybe they can't. I don't know, but I am done with them for awhile until some patches come out that I think will fix things I find broken. In the mean-time I am probably going to give WAR another try as I've heard there have been a lot of improvements since launch (I only played for a month). I also play EVE but that is a pretty boring right now as the alliance I am in isn't active in the war of Goons/NC vs -A-/BoB (I'm in CVA) and -A- are our worst enemies. I personally don't like -A- due to some of their market activities in IAC (now dead) space and their leadership doing nothing about it and cause I just like to hate BoB ; ). Heck I may even give LOTRO another try...
I am really hoping some future games have some enjoyment for me. I am looking forward to ARMA:2 , Guild Wars 2, and the new Star Wars MMO coming out.
Lol.. this is a good problem to have from a business perspective.
This is why they had to add another server recently. There was just WAY too many people getting in there and playing Wintergrasp. It was causing more lag because too many people found it fun. Subscribers were begging Blizzard to do something about the logjams because there are simply too many people playing WoTLK right now. Wouldn't surprise me if they add another server again this year from the sound of things and the look at sales numbers.
I'm sure Blizzard will take this type of problem over the reverse; servers and battle areas lag free because no one is playing them.
BTW: Which server did you play on? I always see people say generally "My server this.." and never say which one it is, as if that's ALL the servers.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Lol.. this is a good problem to have from a business perspective.
This is why they had to add another server recently. There was just WAY too many people getting in there and playing Wintergrasp. It was causing more lag because too many people found it fun. Subscribers were begging Blizzard to do something about the logjams because there are simply too many people playing WoTLK right now. Wouldn't surprise me if they add another server again this year from the sound of things and the look at sales numbers.
I'm sure Blizzard will take this type of problem over the reverse; servers and battle areas lag free because no one is playing them.
BTW: Which server did you play on? I always see people say generally "My server this.." and never say which one it is, as if that's ALL the servers.
my server(Fenris) only really get laggy when we get into the inner courtyard. I go down to about 15fps... but I can tell others are having a harder time ( I win more inside the courtyard LOL). I play on horde, and we sometimes have tenacity buff, despite having two full raid groups ( 80 people). So you gotta figure by the end of the battle there are close to 150 people in the courtyard.
But Blizzard is fixing two problems with one cure in the next patch. They are strengthening the walls
1. as it is now, the 'offensive' team wins way more than 50%.. more like 75% no matter if it is horde or alliance.
2. This will put more fighting outside the walls and courtyard, where there is way less lag.
feel the same
I'm so glad I am a casual MMORPG player. I don't feel any of the anger, jadedness, disappointment or angst, that the more hard-core set feels towards their games. I can only play a few days a week, for a few hours at a time (unless I have a vacation day that my wife can't get as well, and then I will play like a kid again for 8 hrs). MMO's always feel like vast, interesting places with so much content and gear that I'll never see it all. Paradoxically, because I only play 8 hrs a week or so, I feel like I get a ton out of the game. I have no idea how long WoW will continue to expand. I suspect that it'll go into a resurgence soon and actually add players since there is so little quality competition out there, and so many people yet to pick up online games.
How do you tap into the millions and millions of people who havn't even tried MMO's yet? Continue to add a very moderate amount of solo content. It doesn't have to be the main emphasis for the company, because casual players will take forever to get through it. But if you just keep adding a trickle of solo-content, and put your main thrust towards the middle to hard-core content, they'll keep expanding. Eventually if you have a very compelling end-game, those casual players will try to get into it more, and you'll convert them to much longer subscriptions.
A/V Nerd-
Onkyo TX-SR706b receiver
(2)Klipsch RF-35
(1)Klipsch RC-35
(2)Klipsch RS-42
(2)Polk R15
(1)Premier Acoustic PA-10 sub
feel the same
great, the gold sellers have even got onto mmorpg.com now ¬¬
great, the gold sellers have even got onto mmorpg.com now ¬¬
Well, if you really believe that's a goldseller and not a dressed-up troll.... have I got a game for you.
It's called Age of Conan. It's gonna be a fantastic game which will revolu.. oh. You've already fallen for that one.
Sorry. Guess no one can fool you anymore lol.
"TO MICHAEL!"
WoW is not going to die any time soon. The only game that is currently in dev. that might kill WoW is Blizzard's secret mmo project codenamed "Hydra". If SOE were to make EQ3, now would be the time. No game will be realeased that I have heard of by 2011 that will be the next WoW. if they could get EQ3 out by 2012-2013 then they could easily dethrone WoW because of its low end graphics and the players will start to get bored with it. I am going to try to email this brilliant suggestion to SOE, but they will either ignore me or release a game with the same quality as VG when it came out -_-
EQ3 could be the real WoW killer.... AKA the MMO version of Jesus.....
we need our savior :P
Oh brilliant you have friends in Paris who knows something nobody knows, some big secret that has huge value to many business firms/competitors, some big trade secrets, and your friend is sharing that secret with you, while you are sharing the secret with us here. Is this not a national security breach?
First, we do not know you or your friend. You and your friends and a vague statement about number drops is not evidence. Its called hearsay.
Second, figures published by various sources, long queues, new migration servers, sales record, all these are more reliable information. You have been dodging all these counter-examples and keeps cooking up new vague statements. You start with you brave assertion that you are wise with your AoC "prediction", then you start telling us you think, then you start tell us you have friends.
When will you start telling us you have reliable sources, in the FBI, CIA or somewhere, that WoW is dying?
If you still want to pretend to be credible, start addressing the counter ideas raised, or keep rambling to yourself about how WoW must die b/c you know it. By addressing the others, I mean you provide credible information, not just another friend, or friend's friend, or friend's friend's friend, or his dog.
lol when i first saw that i read heresy XD
First of all, this was a good expansion pack. The leveling process and solo PvE quests were the best ever.
However, a word that can also describe it is: short.
The instances are short. The RAID instances are short. Wintergrasp and SotA is short. The storylines and process of reaching major lore character is also, disturbingly, short and abrupt. You can theoretically walk in and kill Malygos right now, and its almost exactly the same for Anub'arak. I expect it will be the same for Arthas.
Burning Crusade had a massive exodus of players a few months/year after its release and its going to happen again. BC started out with massive queues, and excitement, and all that jazz as well but it died down, the same will happen with Wrath and a whole lot sooner.
Add to this that there are a whole lot more technical issues that render the game unplayable and nobody seems sure as to why. I am one of the people that has been FORCED to quit because of those technical problems (high latency spikes).
I'll go with the OP on this one.
___________________
Sadly, I see storm clouds on the horizon. A faint stench of Vanguard is in the air.-Kien
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/12/13/