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I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009

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  • Frostbite05Frostbite05 Member Posts: 1,880

    when it comes to mmo pve content WoW is the best with LOTRO at a close second. WoW only ruined the genre for  mmo players that legit have no lives, sorry to say you gotta move outta your parents basement sometimes guys. They took a dying genre and made it popular to the masses. Most people who would never be caught dead in an mmo enjoy playing WoW. If anything this game saved the genre. It has its flaws, nothing in life is perfect get over it, just like every other game.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by stayontarget
    I predict a long life for this thread.  lol

    When someone posts the sheer amount of nonsense the OP did, dares you with this as part of his follow up post:


    So if you disagree with me that's fine, but mark my words on this day and see how it turns out.


    .... then they 'disappears' like Keyser Soze in the movie "The Usual Suspects", you can BET this thread will probably still be alive until his next "prediction".


    I guess it will be January 2010 until we see him again for some more 'enlightment' though. But at least the other 'enlightened' people who think Wow will fail along with him still troll this post. So that's something at least.

  • admriker4admriker4 Member Posts: 1,070
    Originally posted by Xasapis


    Exodus of players from WoW to where?
    Looking past the funny claims that there is a population decline (queues at peak hours even now is a good indication of the opposite in my book), I still fail to see the logic in the whole post. If WoW is a tank and is supposedly leaking, the content will move to in a place with similar properties. I can only think of one alternatve at the moment, LOTRO, and it wasn't mentioned at all. Instead all that was mentioned were a number of PvP games.
    The problem for those of us that are searching for an alternative to WoW PvE gameplay and content is that the choices are limited and the grip needs to be strong enough to pull us out of an already established community. How are you supposed to convince your raiding friends to move to a PvP focused game with limited PvE coverage is beyond me.
    Aion that you so easily dismissed has bigger potential in the PvE front that WAR will ever have, mainly because the focus of the game is different. I'm also expecting good things from the new Star Wars game, I guess I value a good story in an interesting world more than anything.



     

    you assume that wow players will migrate to another mmo ?

    dont forget that before wow the total MMO market was around 7 million players. WoW didnt take very many players from MMO's, most were brand new to the genre.

    I would bet at least 6 million, maybe as high as 8 million players in WoW are new to MMO's. Id also bet that most of them will simply leave the market and go back to wherever they came from. My guess is Diablo 3 will take a great many wow players away

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,774
    Originally posted by hidden1


    I will be unsubscribing WoW when Darkfall comes out... thank god I won't have to deal w/ QQing carebears who hate being ganked.
    I can freely pvp w/out people complaining... unless they have no clue that DF is a sandbox pvp mmo, in which case it's their dumb fault for joining DF.

     

    Thank god wow players don't have to deal with you, and have fun gangning the 3 or 4 people who would join DF.

     

     

  • Frostbite05Frostbite05 Member Posts: 1,880

    alright so the op thinks hes the sole person who thought that. Buddy most saw the game declining after the horrible opening day.

  • pencilrickpencilrick Member Posts: 1,550
    Originally posted by Arthousesig


    For those who might remember me, I predicted the rapid demise of Age of Conan back in June 2008, looking purely at the game mechanics and the nature of the game itself. This was at the same time review magazines were throwing around scores of 9/10 for AOC, but it was obvious the game would die from playing the game, which is how I make my predictions :)
    I am a long time MMO player starting off in Ultima Online days, through L2, AO, EVE, EQ1 (but not 2) WoW, WAR and LOTRO.
     
    Looking at the incentive structure of the current top MMOs by subscription numbers, these are my predictions for January-April 2009:
     
    1. WoW: currently has the largest number of subs although this has already dropped down to around 9 million from a high of 11.x million. Around 6 million of the remaining 9 million subs is from the China/East Asia region, and these are likely to drop off the fastest as EU and US subs drop off. The reason for the drop will be a lack of elite PVE content and the migration of top-end guilds to one of the competitors, which the masses will then follow. The nature of the mmo market is such that a game can very rapidly drop in popularity as gamers are a fickle bunch. The demise of WoW is here, and it will be surprisingly swift (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)
     
    2. WAR: currently the 2nd largest mmo in subs, although a very high quality mmo its fortress endgame is currently broken (although its city sieges are not) making the #1 priority for Mythic to fix endgame fortress sieges. The success of this game depends on how fast and how well they can fix this part of the RVR endgame. although the PVE instances and the rest of the RVR experience are all top notch. WAR is the likely destination of all the current top mmo guilds and players from WoW and other games
     
    3. EVE: not often mentioned but this mmo has carved out its niche and is holding steady, doing what it does in a large sandbox space environment that appeals to the hardcore sandbox PVP crowd (in space)
     
    4. LOTRO: another niche PVE game, this one has been ticking along nicely with its new xpac but one can't help but feel it should have done better given the franchise
     
    Other predictions:
     
    a) Darkfall will be a disappointment, the budget is low and the game is very far from finished, and is nowhere near the level of polish of WoW/WAR/LOTRO
    b) Aion will appeal to some of the old L2ers, but will likely not touch the mainstream (but will be a good mmo game for those who love the asian-styled grind mmos)

     

    WOW might lose players, but not to the turkeys you listed, especially not WAR.

    I do agree that WOW is long in the tooth, that noob gamers are, after 4 years, no longer noob gamers and are beginning to look for something else, and that if a new and polished MMO comes out it could capture some amount of WOW's player base.

    But no, folks are not going to bail in huge numbers for WAR and EVE and those other subpar games you listed.

     

  • CamVCamV Member Posts: 8

    WoW will not die...yes it may lose players but the game wont die...not yet anyway. I mean how would it die...a bunch of players leave to go play another MMO? that wont kill the game it will just make more people feel like playing it because aslong as there is a few thousand people playing the game then the game isnt dead.

  • woody1974woody1974 Member Posts: 257
    Originally posted by rav3n2


    Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,



     

    According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

    Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

    Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

     

  • PheacePheace Member Posts: 2,408

    That fact that it's *on* the shelf is a good sign actually, means that they are still selling them :)

     

    As for your other signs, yes, it's a 4 year old game. I also agree the downward slope will probably be in sight soon if it hasn't already. Took about 4 years longer than most other MMO's.

    image

  • AhilesAhiles Member Posts: 414
    Originally posted by woody1974

    Originally posted by rav3n2


    Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,



     

    According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

    Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

    Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

     

     

    Ah look who it is, our good friend Woody.   Your rantings like Greyhoofs, are the best I read here.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by woody1974
    Originally posted by rav3n2 Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,

     
    Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.
     


    Why are you talking about Warhammer here in this Wow thread again?

    Recruit-a-friend after 4 months on the market?: WARHAMMER. (Wow didn't do this four months after they released, did they?).

    Nerfing raid bosses (Mythic is doing that to the Lords now as we speak, because of the server cap they just put on, the bosses are TOO hard, and gear isn't dropping enough to deal with the bosse's AoE's).

    Kicking hardcore players in the nads... Mythic. (server caps, putting in NEW classes and other junk while not fixing the old stuff for Level40s boredom. Mythic is prepping the game for FUTURE customers, not the existing base)

    Err.. WHO's focus here is all about the money again? Talk about truth, it's staring you in the face in you stop ostriching. You need to get off these boards and check out official VN Warhammer boards where Mark Jacobs holds court. It's a damn near mutiny over there and they are OPENLY ridiculing/mocking him on his own semi-official site. And those are WARHAMMER fans doing it who are Level40 playing the game.

    When you finally reach level40, come back and update us on things, ok? Bopping around in Scenarios at level10-20 is NOT an accurate overall picture of the game's fun factor and stability.

    I know you love Warhammer wooody, but you have to face REAL facts one day, no?

  • templargatemplarga Member UncommonPosts: 1,945
    Originally posted by woody1974

    Originally posted by rav3n2


    Dont people get tired of these predictions according to some people WoW has been dying the last 4 years yet the population keeps on growing,



     

    According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..

    Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.

    Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.

     

     

    Of course its on a downward slope. Everything comes to and end. The question is how STEEP is that slope....and to listen to many of you, all 11 million players will stop playing this year.



    The thing that most people forget is that WOW has, oh, about 9 million more players than Blizzard ever thought they would have. So WOW can lose several million players and still be a healthy game.



    See, if WOW loses players like that, it won't be a big deal like it would be in other games. For example, in WAR, unless the player loses are equal on both sides, the game becomes incredibly unbalanced and people leave due to that. In Age of Conan, with the majority of the end-game based on PVP, people will leave because there isn't enough people left to do sieges (same with DAOC).



    With WOW's endgame, all you need is 10 people and occasionally 25. Those are easy numbers to maintain. In other words, due to WOW's casualness at the end-game, Blizzard does not have to worry about game mechanics and design causing people to leave (like they had to worry about when it first launched when everything was 40 man).



    Now as for your other signs:

    1. Recruit-a-Friend: it is a brillant program for people who want to try WOW and be able to play with their friends. I have used it and it helped my fiance (now wife) level a character so she could play/group with my friends and I. Also, this program has been around for a while now and started back when WOW was growing by leaps and bounds.



    2. Nerfing raid bosses: Not a sign of a doomed game, but a sign of developers who understand their playerbase (I wish more games had these devs). They nerf it after its been out a long time so people can see it and experience the content. Sure, you are not first or the best to do it, but most players do not care, they just want to see it. Besides, they only do this right before a major expansion anyway (like WOTLK) and nobody is going back to that content after the expansion anyway.

    3. I am not sure how focusing on casual players and not hardcore players is a sign of a doomed game when 95% of your player base is casual. Seems like a smart business move to me. And yes, it is all about the money because Blizzard knows who their playerbase is and do what they can to make them happy.  And as long as they do that, WOW is not a doomed game. One day it will lose a lot of players and it will probably have to merge servers or do server transfers. But even then, I think many game will wish they had the sub numbers that WOW does.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Of course its on a downward slope. Everything comes to and end. The question is how STEEP is that slope....and to listen to many of you, all 11 million players will stop playing this year.


    Of course they all predicted this year as the Wow downfall..

    They saw one guy say that, so they just assume everyone is saying it. It's like when the Y2K bug was supposed to happen. No one actually asked people who knew anything about the coding much. It was much more newsworthy and sensational to stir up a story and hope it gets a life of its own. Then when the event doesn't happen, so many people were saying it, no one knows who the originator was.

    "Wow will have a rapid exodus in early 2009". Now someone can honestly say "I saw it on the internets." And it's since its in print and on the internets, must be true.

    So yeah, it's going to blow up this year, you just read it.

  • rozenblade1rozenblade1 Member CommonPosts: 501

    WoW has been a phenomenom amongst the MMO community, but, like all great things, it too will come to an end.  I don't think it will just completely fall off, as I still see people starting new subs, but it's popularity will drop.

    I don't think WAR will take it's place, because most WoW players are going to disperse to several other games. 

    I know many that have come to LotRO already. Many have gone to WAR, but until they fix certain issues, it will not meet peoples expectations.  With FC fixing the problems in AoC, I have noticed new players, some even coming from WoW.  Many WoW players will go to Darkfall, I know this because many WoW players are awaiting it's release.  Others will simply try other MMO's until they find one they are happy with, or until the next big thing comes out.

    This is just the way I see it. 

    PLAYING: NOTHING!!!
    PLAYED:FFXI, LotRO, AoC, WAR, DDO, Megaten, Wurm, Rohan, Mabinogi, RoM

    WAITING FOR: Dust 514

  • gorgonagorgona Member UncommonPosts: 49

     I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...

     Not inventive at all...

  • LydonLydon Member UncommonPosts: 2,932
    Originally posted by woody1974 
    According to who? Blizzard....lol...the guy with no life who has 36 Shaman accounts...WoW has reached its peak.. The downhill slope is in view...it is not going to get any bigger...Just about any software store you go to have you noticed all those copies of BC and Wrath still sitting on the shelf? Ive seen copies getting boxed back up to make space for other games..
    Blizzard is a business and they are in the business of making money so why would they ever tell you that their sales and sub numbers are on a decline...Hell im not even a math wiz and I wouldn't be that dumb.
    Other signs of a doomed game: Recruit a Friend, nerfing raid bosses, kicking the hardcore players in the nads because they have more casual players and they want to focus the game that way...its all about  MONEY.....say what you want that is the truth.
     

    That was one of the most non-sensical rants I've heard yet. 



    Do you have any sort of idea as to how stores work? When items are selling well they tend to place more of them on the shelf at any given time and ensure they're there for the taking and in-you-face. If you need any more proof that the game is still selling well I suggest you take a look at the latest PC software sales charts, as the facts are right there. Simply looking at the Current Best Sellers list of a local online store, both WoW and TBC have entered the list once again, despite both being two of the best selling games on the site ever. 



    Blizzard won't tell you their subs are declining because they aren't. They just recently announced their highest subscription numbers ever. 



    Not a single fact is stated in your post. Instead you've opted to argue with opinion and assumptions.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by gorgona
     I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...
     Not inventive at all...

    Just curious, how long had you played Wow before you stumbled upon the fact that it was "not inventive" at all? How long was your /time played info in Wow?

  • templargatemplarga Member UncommonPosts: 1,945
    Originally posted by gorgona


     I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...
     Not inventive at all...

     

    If that is all you are getting out of WOTLK, then it is time to move on. The game offers so much more but the player has to choose to see it and find it. Personally I love doing all of the quests even though I hit 80. I still have Scholzar Basin, Grizzly Hills and Icecrown left to do.

  • googajoob7googajoob7 Member Posts: 866

    well i can only speak for myself i ve spent the last two months level up my two main characters to level 80 . one horde one alliance . i ve enjoyed doing this and seeing the new content . but upon reaching 80 i ve found for at the moment at least there seams to be very little interest in pvp in wow . the battlegrounds are nearly dead and wintersgrasp is laggy as hell so i ve decided to go back to warhammer and lord of the rings for a few months .

    i proberbly will return to wow sometime in the year but with several other quality mmos out now and others of less quality but cheap to buy and try or even free that interest me . i no longer see the point staying in wow all the time .

    if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .

    lord of the rings offers as decent pve with a more serious storyline . i find it a lot of fun as well .ddo and everquest 2 are buyable now in the uk for about 2-3 pounds and conan can now be brought for 5-8 pounds . although these are games i doubt i d want to subscribe to i think they might be worth a try . also runes of magic looks like it may be worth a look at .

    theres an awful lot to do if your bored with wow nowdays . i think there will certainly be a slump in warcraft this year . ecconomic factors will effect it like everything else . i think its peaked but it will be here for its tenth birthday and proberbly will still have a sub base of 3 maybe 4 million even then .

    i doubt there will be a wowkiller . at least not for a few years yet .

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by googajoob7

    if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .


    Actually, Aion would be the more "natural place" most bored warcraft people would probably go. It's got way better graphics than Warhammer, a much better PvE content in game than Warhammer, HUGE amounts of people already playing so no shortage of PvP adversaries with dying or 'retarded growth' servers, there is actually a "third" faction NPC that can tip battles in favor of the other two, and its a much more polished game that doesn't need a massive overhaul to stop people from playing a crashing endgame.

    Even Darkfall would allow way more freedom to PvP than Warhammer does based on it's descriptions.

  • DreamagramDreamagram Member Posts: 798
    Originally posted by Mwaji 
    Even a  Blind Squirrel finds a nut, Even a Fanboi finds a dingleberry to hang on to in spite of the odds.WoW is already on the way down, maybe not quickly right now, but the terribad expansion they just released can't help. Exept for the most dedicated WoW worshipper most normal players are probably just well bored and would jump at the chance to leave WoW, many have already tried but since AOC and WAR were basically the same game with pvp addons and glitchy as hell it was just a chioce of which boring WoW clone do I want to play.

    S'okay, s'okay. /pat :-)

  • Kieth75Kieth75 Member Posts: 51
    Originally posted by popinjay


     

    Originally posted by googajoob7
     
    if warhammer is improved upon it would be the natural place for most of the bored warcraft crowd to go . its pvp is essentially better than wows in my opinion .

     

    Actually, Aion would be the more "natural place" most bored warcraft people would probably go. It's got way better graphics than Warhammer, a much better PvE content in game than Warhammer, HUGE amounts of people already playing so no shortage of PvP adversaries with dying or 'retarded growth' servers, there is actually a "third" faction NPC that can tip battles in favor of the other two, and its a much more polished game that doesn't need a massive overhaul to stop people from playing a crashing endgame.

    Even Darkfall would allow way more freedom to PvP than Warhammer does based on it's descriptions.

    It seems like a good place for wow players to go to, it has better graphic. I would like to play there and become god to. I would have large wings and no one could defeat me, I would just hit them and they would die. But I admit I love WAR and would not leave for Aion, maybe just play Aion for a bit.

    War is more than just freedom to kill it is how we like the game to be. Plus it is war what is not to like about War?

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,774
    Originally posted by gorgona


     I already cancelled my WoW sub, too boring after a month of the same crap in Wotlk...collect 25 badges get the shiny glowing item...do 5 repeatable quests every single day to grind exalted, so you can buy the shiny sword...Grind same instances over and over everyday. Participate in raid in which addons tell you every single move you need to do on boss, tactic wise...
     Not inventive at all...

     

    LOL .. you use an addon to spoil the boss fight and you blame blizzard???

    WOW has some of the best boss fights out there. If u spoil it youself by using an addon .. there is no one to blame but you.

    And btw, on some of the more challenging bosses, addons are great help.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Kieth75

    It seems like a good place for wow players to go to, it has better graphic. I would like to play there and become god to. I would have large wings and no one could defeat me, I would just hit them and they would die. But I admit I love WAR and would not leave for Aion, maybe just play Aion for a bit.
    War is more than just freedom to kill it is how we like the game to be. Plus it is war what is not to like about War?

    Close but...


    The other PvP people get wings too. So you will be having air pvp battles, which is exactly what they have now. People fighting in the air without mounts while at the same time, others are fighting PvP on the ground beneath them.

    That's considerably more freedom than a game (Warhammer) that has 170 people funnel through doorways into a hallway where 80 opponents are AoE CCing them nonstop, posting blockable standards and stacking them all into a big, heaping pile while telling Level20 players to mob outside spamming spells and junk until the server crashes. YEEEHAAAAAAWWWWW!!!

    Yeah, this sure sounds like more freedom than fighting in the air.


  • Kieth75Kieth75 Member Posts: 51

    I did not say more freedom, what your talking about. I never say anything about freedom. I want freedom I will play WURM  online and build a house and a nice fountain in front porch. You should be critical of AION just like you are of WAR AION already has many problems lots of hacker already. I just play WAR because I like war and play tabletop war and like to kill things and say I play online to. So game has problems so what. Even wow has crazy problems, like crazy berserk Paladin with bubble smak smak dead. But no need to complain GMs will fix the problems we hope so.

This discussion has been closed.