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The obligatory estimated subscriptions poll!...
I'm sure this has been covered many times before, but as is the tradition at MMORPG.com, there's nothing like dusting off an old horse and giving it another good flogging.
With the release date of the highly anticipated Darkfall now set in stone/plaster/vapor (delete as applicable) we can while away the coming weeks in idle speculation.
This poll is to determine what the community thinks the subscription numbers for Darkfall will be like. We're talking sustained subs once they've settled, not peak.
Get voting. 
Comments
Anyone voting for anything above 250k has lost touch with reality and does not understand what this game is. While it is a sandbox, it is also a harsh evironment where you can lose everything in one short fight.
That immediately places this game for the hardy players who can stand loss. The diminishes the pool of players drastically.
I think this game will be a success, but it will never have large numbers. Just look at Eve, even with all the accolades it still struggles at around 250k. I think a nice healthy number would be around 100-200k.
i picked 50-250 just because it seems most games other than the top eschelon of top titles (and even them) seem to hover around 100-250k in active average subscriptions. I think at release it'll be higher due to hype but it seems most games peter out around the 250 mark. As good as the game may be I think it's too niche to apeal to the millions some people think.
EVE has 250k I believe, correct me if I'm wrong though. EVE also has skill system that many people don't like and refuse to play EVE because of it. So I think DF can easily break 250k. There's allready over 200k signed to DF forum, so there's a big crowd interested in it.
Mandatory "WoW Killer™" choice
I think it can GET high numbers but I don't honestly believe it'll maintain anywhere NEAR 1 million. It's too niche. I chock it up to this. My girlfriend likes MMO's kinda... She will play games like WoW and LOTRO. She's the kind of epople who make WoW popular.
It's the ACCESSABILITY and lighthearted don't need to get into completely to play and have fun. Darkfall may be good but it's not going to apeal to that mass crowd. Too many people are turned off by and annoyed by FFA pvp. Going back to people I know, my GF while playing an MMO gets upsets to the point of turning off the game if someone talks in chat to her wrong let ALONE kill her outright or fight her for no reason.
So many people talk about how "Hardcore" this game is going to be and unfortunatly that Hardcoredness is going to not apeal to the majority of this "Millions" crowd.
Not to mention that fact that we all know a game can be great but not neccesarilly a success in the eye of the mass market. not to mention that everyone signed up to websites forum isn't going to stick with the game and count towards the maintained subscription lvl since the OP asked for that and not "Peak" sign ups.
No upcoming MMO speculation is complete without it!
Realistically, 200k should be easily achievable and would be a huge success for Darkfall, especially given their low development budget of 10m euros.
The actual number of subs will depend IMO heavily on how harsh or soft the alignment system is on evil behaviour. If high alignment equates to rewards in game, then i think most people will stick to the race-based RVR side of the game, if alignment penalties are not harsh at all it'll be more FFA.
Put another way, if you have to constantly be alert for your own race to grief you while you're deep in your own racial territory mindlessly farming up reagents or whatever then that's going to turn away a large segment of potential DF players. I don't think it will be like this though, not *that* much anyway.
Racial RVR + clan wars == more subs, i would guess 1mill+, FFA means fewer subs, maybe 100k or less. My educated guess is DF should be able to hold steady at 250K subs without too much trouble... there have been enough clues from dev journals that there will be various benefits to keeping a high alignment.
I also think that future content is going to come into big play. If theres not alot to do it will dwindle not to mention the content release schedule. People like updates and this is a company that doesn't have a good "Speedy" track record so I think content and update shcedules and releases will play a big part.
Not to mention BUGS. A game could easily could be grand or awfull depending on server stability and bugs. We've all seen good titles go right in the crapper from small things such as log in problems class imbalance and bugs. this being a small company they're going to have to be pretty on top of that stuff from the word GO to mantain subs.
ITS OVER NINETHOUSAAAAAAND!
never read the other choices, sry.
FagerCraft - Feeding the trolls on mmorpg.com since 2005.
50-150k seems most likely the number they will receive. the games ruleset is just too hardcore to get and maintain alot of casual gamer subscriptions.
Seeing as thier are over 200k(220k) people signed up on the main forums I will have to assume subs will be over 200k. You dont sign up on the website if you are not interested in this type of game.
Edit: The number will be WAY over 200k if the game is good. I personally know over 20 people that will play the game if it is good, but are not signed up on the site or following it close (friends from my old WoW guild)
And you sign 20 or more times just to get in beta.
p.s. Note they had 50k users before the hype started few months ago.
Futilez[Do You Have What It Takes ?]
Seeing as thier are over 200k(220k) people signed up on the main forums I will have to assume subs will be over 200k. You dont sign up on the website if you are not interested in this type of game.
Edit: The number will be WAY over 200k if the game is good. I personally know over 20 people that will play the game if it is good, but are not signed up on the site or following it close (friends from my old WoW guild)
I'm signed up on their forums but I won't play. I just like reading em every now and then. Don't think everyone who signs up for a forum are going to automatically play the game.
Seeing as thier are over 200k(220k) people signed up on the main forums I will have to assume subs will be over 200k. You dont sign up on the website if you are not interested in this type of game.
I'm signed up on their forums but I won't play. I just like reading em every now and then. Don't think everyone who signs up for a forum are going to automatically play the game.
Exactly. And bear in mind the game won't be for everyone. Many people (including myself) have signed up simply because we're interested to see what it's like. I'm fully aware that it probably won't be for me as I can see myself getting extremely frustrated with the gameplay but I'm prepared to keep an open mind.
That seems like idle speculation on your part. I've seen many posters say gear will be easy to come by, and it will not be a deciding factor in combat.
If that is the case, then how is losing your gear so "harsh"? If you lost all the gear you raided for in WoW, indeed taht would be harsh. Is that how Darkfall will work? Is that wh you think it will be "harsh"? Or is just losing stuff, even if it's easy to replace, and even if you can live without it, really harsh?
I don't know. Will be interesting to see the reviews when the NDA is lifted.
It seems many posters have come to a conclusion about how harsh they want the game to be, but no one really knows for sure.
I don't think anyone can make a good subscription prediction. There are to many unknown factors. What are recent numbers for WAR, AoC, and LotRO? Should we count Tabula Rasa? Each game seems to be different, and get different results.
And you sign 20 or more times just to get in beta.
p.s. Note they had 50k users before the hype started few months ago.
THIS
When the only way to get access to the Beta was to sign up on the official site, and there wasn't anything to prevent signing up multiple times under different names... it's probably safe to assume a few duplicates. How many? Not a clue.
On the same token, there are undoubtedly some who haven't signed up on the official pages and are planning on trying out the game when it releases. How many? Not a clue.
So, taking that into consideration we are left with... the numbers registered on the official site mean... very little.
Now to play devil's advocate with the numbers being valid...
As a point of reference...
How many did WAR have signed up for it's Beta?
How many did AoC have signed up for it's Beta?
How many did Vanguard have signed up for it's Beta?
How many did LoTRo have signed up for it's Beta?
I don't know the exact numbers for any of the questions above, but I seem to remember seeing some that were supposedly quite a bit more than the 200k.
What does that mean? Not really sure, just trying to see all sides of this and see if anyone else has any insight.
There's over 220k signed in the forums now, it doesn't matter if they all sub or not, but it does show that even now, when the large audience is mostly unaware of Darkfall (since Aventurine has zero advertizing going on and a lot of people don't visit anykind of forums), it has managed to gather quite a following. Think how many more it would be with AoC-like advert campaign?
The biggest factor is whether the game is actually fun to play or not, it will never get subs byt the millions, but I can't see any reason why it couldn't break 250k.
At first it will hit up around 200k...6 months later around 50k.
I'll be one of the 50k.
If it launches, and turns out to be what we expected-- then I'd say it will have at least the amount EvE has (220,000), or possibly more because it's not slow paced (like EvE) and you're a human. But if it has a really great launch, and it's a great game and everyone loves it, in time it could become very popular due to the twitch FPS style.
_________
Currently playing: Black Desert Korea (Waiting for EU)
Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.
3-6 months after launch, 50-100K is my prediction...at best.
Predictions will be all that we will ever see with sub. numbers is my prediction.
Unless there is some European law that will require Aventurine to post it's subscription numbers, they will most likely keep them to themselves.
Aventurine is not publicly owned, so there will be no share-holders quarterly statements.
I predict it will be handled very similar to Turbine, another privately held MMO company who has never released their subscription numbers.
Under 50k.
There will most probably be more that initially try the game, but will ultimately be put off by the FFA-PvP environment. It is easy for people to talk up how hardcore they are on the forums, but most of them will end up crying about being ganked every day and losing all their stuff. Darkfall will fill a niche within the current mmorpg hobby, but will ultimately remain a niche game.
"Results, please"
No upcoming MMO speculation is complete without it!
Well Stated Sir!
I picked 250k - 1 million. I don't think it will be a WoW killer, but I'm confident it will succeed everyone's expectations. The reason why EVE doesn't have over 250k subscribers is that space MMOs don't exactly appeal to many people. I know plenty of people that tried the 14 day trial, and didn't subscribe because it simply takes too long to do anything in the game.
Darkfall is not like that, you can pick it up and play it, and I think that will be one of the things that makes it successful, but it needs to hit the ground running for this to happen. It's a lot harder to get fans after a bad start than with a good one.
I voted between 50k and 250k.
I think they would get over 250k if they had more camera options.
Forcing people into first person will stop alot of people from trying the game.