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I predict Obama will win. Warning; this is somewhat lengthy.

I have read the other post predicting McCain will win.  I respect the views of the conservative commentators here.  They have good reasons for thinking this race is close.

Let me post my personal views on why I think Obama will win.

#1:   Early voting. 

Even if the polls even up by Nov 4th, Obama's 5-7 point advantage with early voters is going to pay dividends in many of the states McCain has to defend.  

#2:  Increased democratic numbers compared to 2000 and 2004. 

We all realize that registered democratic voters are less likely to show up than registered Republicans.  But that does not mean some of them won't show up. 

#3:  Obama's ground game. 

Part of the reason #2 should be better than 2000 and 2004 is Obama's expensive ground game.  Conservative commentators have commented on it and many have been very impressed.  Pat Buchanan and Karl Rove have both been very complimentary of that.

#4:  Obama has not had to spend resources in states that traditionally Democrats have had to spend quite a bit of time defending. 

Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon.  States such as these have allowed Obama to concentrate on developing key ground forces in Republican territory such as Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.  

#5:  State polls are not moving as much as the national polls. 

McCain is doing an admirable job considering the money imbalance clawing 3-4 points back from Obama the last week.  However the movement within key states has not been as substantial.  States where it is close Obama has been able to earn an advantage due to 'no-excuse early voting' policies' like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.  States that McCain wants that have no early voting (like Pennsylvania) he is still substantially behind in. 

For these reasons I think Obama will win.  McCain could well come back in states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia...but is going to come back in every one?  I do not believe so.

Lit

 

Comments

  • FaxxerFaxxer Member Posts: 3,247

    I like your post!

    The reasons you are listing are the same one's the MSM have listed however...  Why I disagree :P

     

    Though it's great to live in a country where we have the freedom to talk about this without fear of being arrested eh?  woot for freedom!!!!

     

     

  • declaredemerdeclaredemer Member Posts: 2,698
    • This election has raised nearly ONE BILLION DOLLARS
    • MOSTLY from Obama
    • When McCain released a negative ad, Obama released
      • One negative ad, and
      • Two positive ads
    • Obama has even advertised in video games

     

    I have never, in my life, seen such a brilliant campaign.

     

    Obama got LESS than TWO million dollars from the Democratic Machine.

    McCain's campaign, on the other hand, is largely money from the Republican Machine.

    Obama has taken on

    1. Clinton dynasty;
    2. Republican Party; and
    3. McCain by HIMSELF.
  • LitigatorABLitigatorAB Member Posts: 36

    I assume MSM means 'mainstream media'?

     

  • LitigatorABLitigatorAB Member Posts: 36

    I also think that:

    #1:  The popular vote will be closer than most people think.

    #2:  That this closing in will likely not show up very well on the electoral map in the end.

    #3:  That in the beginning of the night it could very well look VERY CLOSE as Obama's urban advantage will not show up as quickly due to the number of votes that have to be calculated.   This phenomenon was evident during the primaries where Clinton often saw her lead shrink as the inner city primary polling locations were the last to tally fully (like how she ended up losing in Missouri with a 2-3 point lead 95% of the night).

     

     

  • DailyBuzzDailyBuzz Member Posts: 2,306
    Originally posted by LitigatorAB



    #5:  State polls are not moving as much as the national polls. 
    McCain is doing an admirable job considering the money imbalance clawing 3-4 points back from Obama the last week.  However the movement within key states has not been as substantial.  States where it is close Obama has been able to earn an advantage due to 'no-excuse early voting' policies' like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.  States that McCain wants that have no early voting (like Pennsylvania) he is still substantially behind in. 

     

    This is the most important point.

    McCain is chasing his tail at this point. Obama has the blue states locked down and McCain is chasing him around the red states. When McCain makes a little progress in one state, Obama widens his lead in another, or opens up a new red state to a battleground.

    Obama has been on offense this whole race (aside from the 10 days after the RNC).

     

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