Dilemma: WotLK or WAR

 I have quit WoW twice, once during summer last year, came back to it early '08, and then I quit again sometime during August. My first year and something of playing it was extremely fun, for the most part, until I was 70 for a while and nothing new popped up except Kara. I found my guild to not progress in the 3 months we did Kara runs (we could do the first boss... sometimes. Moroes was a 50/50 chance of having a good attempt, and that was it.

 Once I quit, i joined again about 6 months later to find the daily quests, new island, raid progression in more guilds, welfare epics (<3), etc. that all attracted me in, and even though i played as a Rogue, who usually have difficulty finding groups let alone end-game guilds, I was able to get into two really good guilds (one was kind of stuck after 4 months of doing complete kara runs but failing to do Grull even though they had done it in the past with more veteran members), the latter being the one who progressed quite nicely. However, I noticed that playing so much with the new stuff, such as grinding honor for welfare epics and religiously doing daily quests and Badge of Justices instances constantly led me to just playing 2-3 nights a week, just showing up for a raid for TK, Grull, Mags, etc. and it became more of a chore. After a while, I decided to take a break and hopefully come back when WotLK came out, but I found myself less enthusiastic once I started playing on my 360 again and noticing how many great games I had missed out on.

 Now I'm getting a little less enthusiastic about my 360 and have been missing MMO's for the past month or so but haven't wanted to get into anything I had to pay for as I had a little bank issue, and started playing grinding games with unfulfilled promises like RF Online and Atlantica Online. I tried to get into the beta for WAR (friend who works at gamestop gave me a code), but the servers would take 12 hours to download and once i got to around 6 it would kick me off and soon there were no servers so I got discouraged, but I still want to try out WAR.

And this is where my dilemma comes in. That less than 10% of WoW's subscribers always go and try new promising games, like AoC or WAR, just for at least half of them to come back (statistics I read about AoC on a website). I would rather not dish out $50 for WAR, despite how awesome it SEEMS, just to end up quiting after my free month. However, I don't know if I should take the risk of pre-ordering WotLK, paying the 40$ plus the 15$ to reactivate my subscription, just to end up in the same hole of trying out all the new stuff constantly for a month before I break.

In the end, I'm really just asking from people who have similar experiences, or better yet, have played the WotLK beta and have played WAR, and can give me a clue as to which direction I should go in. I'm glad I have Fable II to keep me entertained until I can decide because I'm goin crazy wondering which I should go for right now...

P.S. I am a casual gamer that has some lapses of playing for hours at random days (usually a saturday night or friday night I have free) in case that affects your opinion of what I should get into.