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WAR -27% reduction in gametime over the last two weeks!!
OrionMan
Member Posts: 423
It is monday again and as I promissed last Thursday, when the fanboisquad was flaming me from right and left because of the xfire numbers I posted, I said I would rather come back this Monday to have another look on the negative trend as the trend would be clearer with another week under the belt.
www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
As you can see WAR is still dropping in popularity and if you compare WAR gamingtime Monday the 13th of Oct to Sep 29th you see there is about a -27% reduction in gamingtime and -35% reduction in gaming population.I don't know about you but I think it could get much worse by the end of the week when free sub start to run out. Lets have a poll so that we can form a consensus on why WAR has such a rapid popularity drop.
Comments
Players don't play as much on Mondays, this must mean that Warhammer is failing and Mythic is kaput!
{ Mod Edit }
STOP WHINING!
Are you a full time AoC shill? Cause I see you posting countless times over here just trying to tear the game down
A more accurate number would be down about 15k from the peak of 73k or around 20%. So you are either trying to get a reaction by exagerating the numbers....
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Ethion
still playing my ass off as is everyone I know...I guess you fail at everything except being a shill huh?
He compared two seperate mondays to help make his point seem viable. DURR
But yeah, I doubt WAR is doing too bad though. I think most MMOs behave the same way, a lot of people playing a lot of hours at launch followed by a drop off in hours ingame.
I would wait at least a few months before using these kinds of stats.
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Self-confessed DF fanboy. Finally a real ****ing MMO.
I guess you didn't read the countless posts after what you posted last week about how XFire is about the least reliable form of survey you could take. Coming from someone who is playing the game, not watching an arbitrary count of a small group of people that actually use XFire, I'm telling you that the game isn't shrinking by any means. I'm on the smallest server, low pop on each side, and there are penty of people on.
With all these botched posts and surveys, I'd think you work for the republican camp.
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/played: EQ, EQ II, DAoC, WoW, LoTRO, AoC, CoH/CoV, WAR, Aion, Tera, Wildstar and many others that don't merit listing
/playing: Clash of Clans, Hearthstone
Hmmm that's quite a severe drop off.
Of course, only the people who use x-fire, because they've ALWAYS PLAYED MULTIPLE GAMES, matter, right? The rest of us must not exist.
Remember, one in two people who rely on statistics are complete tools.
xfire represents xfire users who actually remember to turn the damn thing on, stop posting this crap already it means nothing except for the fact that people don't play 24 hrs a day.
"The great thing about human language is that it prevents us from sticking to the matter at hand."
- Lewis Thomas
Wow don't toss him into our camp. I wouldn't even claim he was part of the democrat camp that would be to big an insult....
Xfire numbers are good data but you gotta interpret the data accurately. Some people are just not able to look at the data and draw accurate conclusions this isn't because the data is bad just the knowledge of the person trying to interpret the data.
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Ethion
The subs will probably drop a little but hold fairly strong. A lot of people really like the game, but I do know a decent amount are a bit disappointed in the RvR, expecting something more like daoc, which it is not. I'll probably only play another month because of friends, but most likely not staying too long. I think I had more fun in the closed beta and after all that time, just finally got bored, lol.
I just wanted to level doing rvr all the time, and can't really because no one is in the rvr areas and scenarios, have to wait for long queues. Even in daoc, I could go to the battlegrounds which were more like the open rvr with level restrictions and level that way. I even liked the PvE in daoc better, although many disagree, but at least the "grind" was more fun for me than the questing and grinding in WAR.
Anyways, I can certainly see the subs steadily dropping, but Mythic will have plenty sticking with the game and will make quite a bit of money. Come to think of it, I might not resub another month, I've barely played the last week, especially if I find another game.
Ok, so here's the problem with your theory.
You are saying that x-fire is a very good representation of the general populace of a game.
what you fail to realize is that the very person who would use x-fire represents a completely different demographic of a particular game.
I posit that only gamers or those who buy into a gamer culture would use x-fire.
To that end, x-fire could show that a game was doing extremely well but the game could very well be failing.
I know a small group of people who play video games. Of that group an even smaller segment plays online games. Of that segment not ONE person uses x-fire. Not one.
So though Warhammer could be going into the crapper or becoming the next great thing to gaming, I just can't accept x-fire as anything other than an online toy for people who REALLY enjoy online games.
I posit that it is a sub-culture of a games populace that uses it.
You might say that it is "fanboism" to not accept this information but one could more than easily come back with it being extreme fanboism to resort to such a tool.
Regardless of whether the game is doing well or not, I would only take something concrete such as quarterly reports (not sure if mythic is a publicly traded company) to be able to make up my mind as to the health of a particular game.
Show me real numbers.
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Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Oh, I'd like to add I am or was at least a pretty big gamer and I don't use x-fire, nor do any of my gaming friends, so in general, I don't think it is very representative. I do see less people logging on and know quite a few not resubbing, so I can see why the game is decling some, but it will still be stable and strong.
Ok, so here's the problem with your theory.
You are saying that x-fire is a very good representation of the general populace of a game.
what you fail to realize is that the very person who would use x-fire represents a completely different demographic of a particular game.
I posit that only gamers or those who buy into a gamer culture would use x-fire.
To that end, x-fire could show that a game was doing extremely well but the game could very well be failing.
I know a small group of people who play video games. Of that group an even smaller segment plays online games. Of that segment not ONE person uses x-fire. Not one.
So though Warhammer could be going into the crapper or becoming the next great thing to gaming, I just can't accept x-fire as anything other than an online toy for people who REALLY enjoy online games.
I posit that it is a sub-culture of a games populace that uses it.
You might say that it is "fanboism" to not accept this information but one could more than easily come back with it being extreme fanboism to resort to such a tool.
Regardless of whether the game is doing well or not, I would only take something concrete such as quarterly reports (not sure if mythic is a publicly traded company) to be able to make up my mind as to the health of a particular game.
Show me real numbers.
This is a good theory and one I have thought about. It certainly would seem to make sense. However while this in theory would seem to hold water the problem is that for games with a large population xfire does track well with what numbers are published. So the reality is the numbers do track.
One other point I'm probably not in the catagory that you posit and I use xfire as do all my buddies. I play pretty casually and off and on with a group of friends. I use xfire so they can contact me even when I'm playing a different game then them and we use it to chat sometimes. I find it a good game oriented alternative to something like Aim and Ventrilo. I'm sure I'm not unique and while you may not know anyone using it there are a large number of people that do. So there is a substantial number of sample data points and given that the actual numbers do track well with xfire numbers it is reasonable to assume that they will with this game as well.
So as I've said before xfire does a good job but you do have to engage your brain a little bit and be objective when looking at numbers. Comparing high points to low points is silly. Or picking the largest deviation you can find are all attempts to just make the numbers say whatever you want to say. The best way to interpret them would be to take a running weekly average and plot that number daily. I'm guessing right now if you did that you would see a drop of 20-25% from peak.
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Ethion
Actually the game is declining. But I don't think any new game ever doesn't reach a peak soon and then decline to a stability point. Right now War has not reached stability.
AoC on the other hand has reached stability but at a base of about 10% of War currently. Where war will stabilize isn't something we can tell right now it is dropping week after week without any sign of changing in the curve. It looks to me like it is dropping between 5-10% per week. Next week will probably be the largest drop as the month ends. After that it depends on the quality of the game how long it will be until it stabilizes.
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Ethion
According to XFire, XFire users played WAR 52 661 hours on October 29th and 38 198 hours on September 13th. That means (52 661 - 38 198) / 52 661 * 100% drop in playtime. It's about 27% drop, not 40% drop.
I say a lesson in numbers is needed.
Monday to Monday will be how this is done.
Lets go from this monday to last monday.
so from 10.06 to 10.13:
10.06 = 42130
10.12 = 38198
20% of 42130 = 8426
42130 - 8426 = 33704. Not 38198
10% of 42130 = 4213
42130 - 4213 = 37917
So in reality the numbers have dropped around 9% from last Monday.
Ok, so lets go back to the previous monday before that.
So from 09.29 to 10.06
09.29 = 52661
10.06 = 42130
Again this is around 8%. I'll leave the hard math up to you.
So in the last 2 weeks the game has dropped 17% not 40%. (This is adding the two percentages. If you take the percentage from the 29th to the 13th, it's more like 27% just like the above poster points out.)
So while it does suck that the game's popularity on xfire is dropping, the OP is really overexaggerating and I'm not really sure where you're getting your numbers from.
This was quick math, so if it's a little off, feel free to correct me, but I'm pretty sure I"m accurate, and I'm definitely more accurate than the OP.
Also something of note. The game has been at rank 5 pretty much the last 2 weeks, minus one of the days when it was pretty low due to it being patch day and the servers being down most of the day.
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I live to fight, and fight to live.
According to XFire, XFire users played WAR 52 661 hours on October 29th and 38 198 hours on September 13th. That means (52 661 - 38 198) / 52 661 * 100% drop in playtime. It's about 27% drop, not 40% drop.
Thanks, my bad. -27% gamingtime and -35% reduction in gamer population it is.
According to XFire, XFire users played WAR 52 661 hours on October 29th and 38 198 hours on September 13th. That means (52 661 - 38 198) / 52 661 * 100% drop in playtime. It's about 27% drop, not 40% drop.
Thanks, my bad. -27% gamingtime and -35% reduction in gamer population it is.
So where are you getting those population numbers? Have you actually been jotting down the population each day? Cause I don't see a way to look at previous day's population.
Also, big red numbers make you look like a tool.
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I live to fight, and fight to live.
This is stupid - I always forget to turn Xfire on - but I am still gaming!
{ Mod Edit }
The Adventures of Fat Gamer - http://www.mmorpg.com/blogs/FatGamer
People will drop out of this game because its not there style of game play and other people will join because it is. The big spikes you see is because of hype and free preview at the start. You see this trend in any game released.
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Regarding server status, some time ago there where about 5-7 servers with queues to log into.
Now barely one or two, so maybe the OP is right.
So.. this is what I've noticed..
AoC folks like to talk about how WAR is going to become like AoC..
And WoW folks are talking about how WAR is less of a game..
I think we got some trolls here.. Trolls be coming out!!!
Currently playing Real Life..
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Well I don't see WARs popularity going down at all. Your asceration is shaky and unreliable at best. However, I will state that lag in the large scale RvR battles has been a serious issue that Mythic needs to address. There are a number of other performance issues that need addressed as well such as itemization, mail system, and balance issues, however, lag is the biggest issue for large scale RvR that if not addressed may kill WAR.
EDIT: Tried to make the post easier to understand, and fixed some broken quotes (twice, the traditional editor keeps breaking them)
How did you manage to get past XFire gamer population statistics? The past gamingtime chart is available on thier website, but I can't find any chart of past gamer population.
But doing some estimation using your previous post, on "There she goes !!!" on last Monday you posted
Assuming that those numbers are true, and that the -27% gamingtime during last 2 weeks is true.
The amount of WAR gamingtime on Monday 2 weeks ago was x
The amount of WAR gamingtime on Monday 1 week ago was 0.8x
The amount of WAR gamingtime on this Monday was 0.73x
The amount of WAR gaming population on Monday 2 weeks ago was y.
The amount of WAR gaming population on Monday 1 week ago was 0.81y
I'll mark the average gaming time of WAR player 2 weeks ago as z (z = x/y)
Counting from this, average gaming time of WAR player 1 week ago was 0.8x / 0.81y = 0.9877z minutes, wich can be rounded to about z minutes.
Now using your number that gaming population dropped 35% in two weeks, the amount of WAR gaming population on this Monday would be 0.65y.
The gamingtime this Monday (according to assumption) is 0.73x.
That would mean average player playing 0.73x / 0.65y = 1.12 z minutes, so 12% more than week before.
I can't check if your gamer population reduction is correct or not since I can't find the XFire numbers. But why on Monday 2 weeks ago and Monday 1 weeks ago, average XFire user who played WAR played about z minutes on both days, but now this Monday that same average XFire user played 12% more? Did something special happen (holiday somewhere? server problems on two previous Mondays?), or is your number of 35% reduction maybe wrong?