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60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think ov

PolarizationPolarization Member Posts: 1,410

http://forums.darkfallonline.com/showthread.php?t=61716


Is this delusional, wishful thinking or just extreme optimism, with expectations so unrealistically high about Darkfalls subscription numbers let alone its features, content and game play, how can the developers possibility deliver.

Only 10% of the community actually have a somewhat realistic expectation of around 50,000 for such a niche title with such limited market appeal which apparently might even only be distributed in Europe alone for launch.

I want this game to launch this year and be everything the developers have promised it will be, but even if it does and it’s a relative success, to think it would have over 150,000 subscribers let alone over 250,00 or even 750,000 is patently ridiculous for anyone with even a general knowledge of the industry.

This sort of thing really demonstrates the mentality of the average Darkfall supporter in my opinion, and probably helps to explain some of the behavior exhibited on this forum as well as many others.

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Comments

  • Trogg13Trogg13 Member Posts: 61

    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...

     

    DF devs have said they plan to start with a small number of servers and grow from there, which is IMO the smart way to go. if done well, and not too hardcore, i could see DF getting 250K subscribers over a year or 2.

     

    DF fans may be optimistic, but DF trolls are flat-out stupid.

  • EndDreamEndDream Member Posts: 1,152

    If DF is feature complete.. and is everything they say.. I believe it will eventually max out at about 250,000. It is a niche game for sure.. but the niche is bigger than some may think

    Remember Old School Ultima Online

  • spankybusspankybus Member UncommonPosts: 1,367

    In truth, you kinda have to LOOK to find informaitn on this game. which means that if you don't already know about it, you're gonna see it on a store shelf and lok right past it (unless the display is MASSIVE). If they're serious about launching the game around the time they've indicated, you should start fanning the flames now. But they don't seem to wanna do that....so, due to quiet marketing, maybe 125k peeps is a possibility, I doubt even 750,000 know its due to release sometime soon (soon relative to the games development cycle thus far lol).

    Frank 'Spankybus' Mignone
    www.spankybus.com
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  • XxeonXxeon Member Posts: 559

    yea if a game like eve can get 250 subs so can Df if its releases in good shape

  • ZorvanZorvan Member CommonPosts: 8,912

    If it even hits 99,999, much less over 100,000, they better be throwing one hell of a party. 'Cause that's as good as it will ever get.

  • hakubylickshakubylicks Member Posts: 47

     

  • claudiofmclaudiofm Member Posts: 81

    darkfall 1 year easy 500.000

     

    launch usa + europe time =

     

    1 year 750.000 easy

  • hakubylickshakubylicks Member Posts: 47
    Originally posted by claudiofm


    darkfall 1 year easy 500.000
     
    launch usa + europe time =
     
    1 year 750.000 easy



     Ya just like Shadowbane eh?

    You live in an ignorant dream world.

    Darkfall (if it launches) will not have anymore than maybe 20k active subscribers then it will completely drop and die after the first year or even first 6 months. I even doubt 20,000

    People underestimate what it actually takes to get people to pay to play a game in todays market.

    This isnt the glory years of EQ1

    Archlord had to go Free to play because no one wanted to pay to play it.  Gurantee you 100% that Darkfall is no where even remotely near the quality Archlord is.

  • Trogg13Trogg13 Member Posts: 61
    Originally posted by hakubylicks



    Gurantee you 100% that Darkfall is no where even remotely near the quality Archlord is.

     

    For once i agree with you, Darkfall is 100x better.

  • brostynbrostyn Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 3,092

     I'm sure if I was still 10 I'd be excited about DF, too.

  • claudiofmclaudiofm Member Posts: 81

    you are the ignorant 

    time the time

     

    we see in summer sales , the 2009

     

    player wow+player aoc+player war+playaer casual+player other

     

    easy 500.000 1 year or 750.000

     

    Darkfall is the most anticipated game by players

  • BrezjnevBrezjnev Member UncommonPosts: 98
    Originally posted by Trogg13


    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...
     
    DF devs have said they plan to start with a small number of servers and grow from there, which is IMO the smart way to go. if done well, and not too hardcore, i could see DF getting 250K subscribers over a year or 2.
     
    DF fans may be optimistic, but DF trolls are flat-out stupid.

     

    60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think over 250,000 and 25% think it will be over 750,000.

     

    If 25% think it'll be over 750k, then those 25% think it will also be over 250k, added up with those that think it will be between 250k and 750k that makes ~40% who think it will be over 250k. The one who is wrong here is you, not the OP: Think twice before you go around calling other people stupid, certainly if you have such bad math skills.

  • IsaneIsane Member UncommonPosts: 2,630

    With the features defined here the game will easily acheive 150k to 250k if it releases, not unrealistic in a market where more and more people are dissapointed with what is currently on offer. And no MMOs are being released which hold peoples attention other than Wow which I hate to have to say.

    The game server is designed to function as a cluster, so as a starting point Europe or USA is fine with ping rates these days not too much of a problem(FPS elements may suffer which could be a problem but I prefer to wait and see).

    Wishful thinking, optimistic , unrealistic, mentality of the average supporter, but thankfully it's just your opinion not one I agree with. 

    Is this a troll post ? I dont understand why you can't just explain why you think the figures are inaccurate rather than just attack anyone who believes in the game. 

     

    ________________________________________________________
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  • hakubylickshakubylicks Member Posts: 47
    Originally posted by Isane


    With the features defined here the game will easily acheive 150k to 250k if it releases



     

    Therein lyes the problem.

    It WON"T have those features.

  • erawropaverawropav Member Posts: 32

    I'll tell you exactly what will happen if Darkfall launches.

    It will get a decent amount of players in the first month through the initial purchases and free month.

    After that it will slowly drop week by week until it ends up looking like Shadowbane.

  • Thoric485Thoric485 Member UncommonPosts: 525

    150k subscribers are enough for LotRO to keep kicking and release free content patches pretty often, so that's about as much as Darkfall needs. 100k or 10 million subscribers doesn't make a big difference for me, i just hope there will be enough people per server.

    "The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
    To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
    On we sweep with threshing oar, our only goal will be the western shore."
  • eosyneeosyne Member UncommonPosts: 392
    Originally posted by Trogg13


    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...
     

     

    lawl

    _________________
    USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST

  • erawropaverawropav Member Posts: 32

    To get 150,000+ subscribers you need a game that is as good as WoW or LOTRO and Darkall IS NOT...   throw in the fact that it's a completely Hardcore PvP nich game that the mainstream people will run away from instantly...

    No-way-in-hell

    I can see the game having 10,000 subscribers and keeping them for a year.. then fading away into forgotten MMORPG land

    Of course that's ONLY if they even have 80% of their touted features which IMO they will never have.

    this is all speculative bullshit which is actually pretty fitting for this thing considering 90% of everything about this has to be speculated about 4 MONTHS BEFORE A LAUNCH  <---- LOL

  • XxeonXxeon Member Posts: 559

    lol completly hardcore there ubs in game safe town to a point.. 4 noobs cna defeat a persont hat been playing a long time.

    completly hardcore.

     

    Its as hardcore as eve , except its will be more fair for newer players

  • FischerBlackFischerBlack Member Posts: 573
    Originally posted by Brezjnev

    Originally posted by Trogg13


    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...
     
    DF devs have said they plan to start with a small number of servers and grow from there, which is IMO the smart way to go. if done well, and not too hardcore, i could see DF getting 250K subscribers over a year or 2.
     
    DF fans may be optimistic, but DF trolls are flat-out stupid.

     

    60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think over 250,000 and 25% think it will be over 750,000.

     

    If 25% think it'll be over 750k, then those 25% think it will also be over 250k, added up with those that think it will be between 250k and 750k that makes ~40% who think it will be over 250k. The one who is wrong here is you, not the OP: Think twice before you go around calling other people stupid, certainly if you have such bad math skills.

    I was just about to post the same thing, well said.

    In regards to the polled subscription numbers themselves, I agree with the sentiment here that they are extremely unrealistic. If DF manages to have close to 100,000 subs 12 months after launch it will have 'hit it out of the park' so to speak.

    750,000 is rediculous tbh

  • erawropaverawropav Member Posts: 32

    4 months before a supposed European launch and they have yet to prove that a game even EXISTS and idiots are speculating about it having 250,000 players

     LOL

  • XxeonXxeon Member Posts: 559

    i can see 50-250k  depending

  • erawropaverawropav Member Posts: 32
    Originally posted by Xxeon


    i can see 50-250k  depending



     

    I bet someone said that about Shadowbane and Dark and Light too.

    In fact I can almost gurantee they did.

    It's going to be funny as hell to see all these tools who are waiting for this overhyped turd to launch get slapped in the face with reality and find out what they've been playing in their heads the last 7 years is not there

  • gamerman98gamerman98 Member UncommonPosts: 807


    Originally posted by Polarization
    http://forums.darkfallonline.com/showthread.php?t=61716Is this delusional, wishful thinking or just extreme optimism, with expectations so unrealistically high about Darkfalls subscription numbers let alone its features, content and game play, how can the developers possibility deliver.
    Only 10% of the community actually have a somewhat realistic expectation of around 50,000 for such a niche title with such limited market appeal which apparently might even only be distributed in Europe alone for launch.
    I want this game to launch this year and be everything the developers have promised it will be, but even if it does and it’s a relative success, to think it would have over 150,000 subscribers let alone over 250,00 or even 750,000 is patently ridiculous for anyone with even a general knowledge of the industry.
    This sort of thing really demonstrates the mentality of the average Darkfall supporter in my opinion, and probably helps to explain some of the behavior exhibited on this forum as well as many others.

    i think its delusional to think it will release this year...or possibly ever...

  • vinniej55vinniej55 Member Posts: 18

    I think that this game will be boring!! And that no1 will play it

This discussion has been closed.