Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Should WAR be worried? (concerning LotRO)

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/142478

Now that Midway has released LotRO's numbers, as revealed in that thread, should WAR be worried?  If a major IP like LotR has such low population, what could we expect of Warhammer?

I've always thought WAR would get between 200k min. to 500k max.  Another thing that bothers me also, is that this game's major focus is PvP, which a lot of people say, is a niche market, and small compared to PvE MMO games.

I just hope some people don't get their hopes and dreams too high and be realistic.  I know i have, and i'm still going to play WAR since i've never tried an RvR MMO before.

Am i just being too paranoid?  

«1

Comments

  • Death1942Death1942 Member UncommonPosts: 2,587

    instead of looking at this from a 1 or 2 game perspective look at it from a market perspective.  the MMO boom is slowing.  the huge amount of MMO's that are in development are slowly dying out.   the MMO market is a big one but its not big enough for the 200+ decent MMO's out there.  no longer will MMO's draw in 8 million players. 

    taking that into account 1-2 million subscribers is a good amount.

    MMO wish list:

    -Changeable worlds
    -Solid non level based game
    -Sharks with lasers attached to their heads

  • BaselineBaseline Member Posts: 503

    As cool as I think WAR is gonna be for PvP-enthusiasts like myself, I really don't see it going much past the 1m subs in the US mark simply because of the primary focus of the game being PvP. I don't see it reaching the 4 million US subscribers mark that WoW has because there are an awful lot of raid-loving carebears in WoW that are quite content with the next expansion coming out giving them extended treadmill time.

    But hey if WAR does 1 million subs within a few months of release, I'm happy. If it does any less than 200k, that's gonna suck. You've got the whole DAOC crowd, which a lot of those guys are playing WoW right now.

  • Phatty001Phatty001 Member Posts: 28

    I think the big difference is that WAR has much more hype then LoTR, plus I think a lot of players saw LoTR as nothing more than a WoW clone. Warhammer is also a big IP but all of the Warhammer fans are already gamers, LoTR fans are all from the books and movies. I doubt WAR will have any problems making money I think most DAoC players will try WAR which is already 200k+ subs then if you add in Games Workshop players and players it steals from other MMO's it could get some pretty high numbers.

    Thepwnblog.com - MMORPG blog

  • IronyIrony Member Posts: 31

    All I know, is that all my friends talk just as enthousiasticly about WAR as they did before WoW was released. The only difference is, that I'm now with them, instead of against them. So in my humble opinion, yes, it will strike a fair market.

  • ndpunchndpunch Member Posts: 208

    People who claim that PvP is a niche always give me good lulz

  • BryanBoitonoBryanBoitono Member Posts: 199

    First point, I don't think any of us hold any info that has been done by any credible study group as to how big the "PVP" market is, so all assumptions aside, we can assume it makes up a reasonable chunk of the market.

     

    Now, they already have 300k+ subscribers for beta (last I saw).

     

    If this is any indication, as they havnt released but 2/3rds of the playable classes, then I would say its a good one. I see war hitting 1mil-2mil subs within a year or two.

    I find it kinda funny, I find it kinda sad, The dreams in which I'm dieing are the best I've ever had.

  • SpookieSpookie Member Posts: 28

    As one of those unfortunate mugs who bought LoTRO. I can see why it's been a bit of a flop.

    It's nothing new. Just regergitated content we've all seen before, not very polished and not very exciting. It wasn't very well marketed either.

    I can't see why this should have Warhammer worried. It's a completely diffrent focus with EA behind it expect a whirlwind of ads, articles when it comes to the release.

  • skitzo626skitzo626 Member Posts: 42

    Considering DAoC did better then LotRO's numbers I wouldn't worry too much =)

     

    "Released on October 10, 2001, DAoC was one of the first big hits after the initial “big three” of UO, EQ, and AC.  After reaching some 250,000 active users in August 2002, numbers declined to about 210,000 in February 2003, then slowly recovered back to a level of 245,000 – 250,000 subscribers in 2004."

    Another tidbit of info from this link:

    'Released on June 27, 2001, AO initially suffered from a bad launch, and after peaking at about 60,000 subscribers shortly thereafter, it began to rapidly hemorrhage customers.  Funcom eventually hired The Themis Group, a MMOG consulting firm, to stop the bleeding.  Subscriptions dropped to a low of about 20,000 before rebounding, growing to nearly 40,000 by the end of 2003.  Recently, FunCom started offering limited “free” game accounts that were supported by in-game advertising.  While reports are that this has caused the number of people playing the game to grow, the actual number of currently paying subscribers continues to shrink, to some 12,000 subscribers as of December 2005.'

     

    http://www.mmogchart.com/Analysis.html

  • goofy3kgoofy3k Member UncommonPosts: 250

    One thing you must understand is that WoW has brought MMO's into the mainstream now (not really such a good thing), so there are alot more people who know what an MMO is etc. There are more people playing games these days then there was even in 2001, especailly mmos. I think warhammer will do pretty well. There was an idea for warhammer online many years ago that never got released, so alot of warhammer fans wil probably check this out, as well as MMO players and rts gamers.

  • anubisssanubisss Member Posts: 325

    Originally posted by observer


    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/142478
    Now that Midway has released LotRO's numbers, as revealed in that thread, should WAR be worried?  If a major IP like LotR has such low population, what could we expect of Warhammer?
    I've always thought WAR would get between 200k min. to 500k max.  Another thing that bothers me also, is that this game's major focus is PvP, which a lot of people say, is a niche market, and small compared to PvE MMO games.
    I just hope some people don't get their hopes and dreams too high and be realistic.  I know i have, and i'm still going to play WAR since i've never tried an RvR MMO before.
    Am i just being too paranoid?  
    Erm..are you being paranoind..i dont no but if you think WAR will only reach 500k subs you are talking out of your .....I am not going to go into why this is so because i am bored with these threads.

    Well if you want to play a game with more PVE and more subs go and do it,no point getting paranoid as you put it..lol.

  • SnikesSnikes Member UncommonPosts: 76

     

    I think the problem is not about IP games but more about PvP games. I don't think that you can draw conclusion comparing Lotro and War. My concern is more about WAR and AoC which are both targetting a PvP playerbase. WAR being strongly PvP while AoC seems more to be a PvE/PVP mix (like DAOC used to be).

    The problem is to know how many PvPers will sub to WAR instead of AOC.

  • BizkitNLBizkitNL Member RarePosts: 2,546

    I think WAR has so much more to offer a gamer than the mere "Im actually running around in the world" type of experience.

    Heck, I still play DaoC.

    10
  • ArcSpartanArcSpartan Member Posts: 111

    I Believe that WAR will be just fine. It has such a rich lore with many followers, and I know a lot of people who said "No" to LotRO because they were waiting for either WAR or Age of Conan. I still think my prediction of 350k min is at hand.

    Also #'s will be high because people want something new (an RvR MMO)

  • GameloadingGameloading Member UncommonPosts: 14,182

    There is nothing to be worried about. Keep in mind that Lotro has only been just released, and selling 172k copies in that time period is not bad at all.

  • tallshortguytallshortguy Member Posts: 92

    Originally posted by Gameloading


    There is nothing to be worried about. Keep in mind that Lotro has only been just released, and selling 172k copies in that time period is not bad at all.
    Considering the amount of money and time put into developement and the massive blitz ad campaign put out for the game on every major game website for months straight, I think it was a bit of dissappointment. Besides that 172k copies really isn't that successful because the average rate is below or around 30% when it comes to players subbing after the free month. Now considering how new this game is, this could be a very bad sign of its longevity.

    Anyways this doesn't affect WAR much at all if any. LoTRO appealed, believe it or not, I think, to a smaller audience in terms of those who would stick with a game for more than a month or so. Also, it turned away the pvp crowd, which does have a very significant number. WAR appeals, currently, more to the crowd that has played several MMOs and will much more likely stick with a game for longer, given it isn't a bad one.

    In the end, logic and reason always beat out fanboys.

  • xray00xray00 Member Posts: 202

    First, I saw someone earlier mention that people view LoTR as just another WoW clone.  That is true enough.  However, have you missed the hundreds of threads and comments about how WAR is nothing but a WoW clone?  Please note that I don't agree with that but it does seem to be a common perception.  It is also a legitimate perception given that the core gameplay plays very much like WoW.  Of course, the core gameplay of WoW plays very much like EQ.  It is the style these games have taken and there is nothing wrong with that.

    Secondly, anyone who believes that WAR is going to hit 1 million subs is smoking something that is likely damaging his brain.  First, Games Workshop themselves estimate to have a customer base of only around 500,000 which is actually a huge customer base for a game like Warhammer and 40K.  They print less than 1/4 million books and rarely do second print runs.  This is where the core players of WAR are going to come from.

    Next even Mythic is not expecting near those numbers.  Last time any dev made any sort of comment it was more along a hope for 300,000 subs after the first year.  That, by the way, makes the game a huge success and leads to serious profit.  It takes less than a third of that to make good money on one of these games.

    I'm looking forward to WAR so don't take this as a bash.  I just think people out there are getting their hopes way to high.

  • jor8888jor8888 Member Posts: 378

    worry about what?  Not many ppl expected LOTR to do good with no end game which caused bunch of ppl to quit already and they have the awesome chicken play pvp.  The team behind it closed AC2 and they also screwed up on D&D what do u expect from those guys.    

     

  • AdythielAdythiel Member Posts: 726

    Who says WAR needs to hit the million sub mark to be successful? If they hit 250k subs, I think Mythic will consider it a success. Sure they want WoW numbers, but WoW truly is a fluke. And who says WAR has to be a WoW killer? They are focused on two completely separate styles of gameplay. Blizzard has been very successful with WoW and it will probably be around for quite a while. But that doesn't mean no other game won't be successful if they don't hit WoW sub numbers. I highly doubt WAR will hit the multi-million sub mark. But that doesn't mean it won't be successful.

     

    LotRO's problem was it lacked enough gameplay to make people want to play it. The open beta showed me this fact, so I didn't buy it. I bet there were numerous others that also felt the same thing. No matter how pretty you make your game, if it lacks enticing, immersing gameplay it won't pull in the subscriptions. If it releases poorly and people have problems playing, it won't ever pull in a large number of subscriptions. AO is a prime example of this. Many people played the beta and saw the state of the game. I'd bet it was very much a situation similar to LotRO, people didn't want to waste their money. First impressions are everything in this industry. And they last. Some people look past the first impression, most don't.

    image

  • LhexLhex Member UncommonPosts: 262

    Ummm.  More people signed up for WAR beta than who currently play LoTR.

    image

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 44,256

    Originally posted by anubisss


     
    Originally posted by observer


    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/142478
    Now that Midway has released LotRO's numbers, as revealed in that thread, should WAR be worried?  If a major IP like LotR has such low population, what could we expect of Warhammer?
    I've always thought WAR would get between 200k min. to 500k max.  Another thing that bothers me also, is that this game's major focus is PvP, which a lot of people say, is a niche market, and small compared to PvE MMO games.
    I just hope some people don't get their hopes and dreams too high and be realistic.  I know i have, and i'm still going to play WAR since i've never tried an RvR MMO before.
    Am i just being too paranoid?  
    Erm..are you being paranoind..i dont no but if you think WAR will only reach 500k subs you are talking out of your .....I am not going to go into why this is so because i am bored with these threads.

     

    Well if you want to play a game with more PVE and more subs go and do it,no point getting paranoid as you put it..lol.



    Well, talking out my arse or not, I do think that WAR will have about 500K subs, unless it turns out to be just the newest, most fun MMORPG game of all time, and appeals to a broad base of players.  I don't think Mythic/EA will be all that unhappy with those numbers.

     

    "True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde 

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

    Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™

    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon






  • ookibakaookibaka Member UncommonPosts: 38

    How can you compare numbers of LoTR sub to WAR beta?  One costs money and for many, the other is a free trial.  'Cause you know a good portion of those will bail once beta ends regardless how good the game is.

  • randomtrandomt Member UncommonPosts: 1,220

    Besides, to those who think pvp is a niche game play style...  You did know that pvp is what caused online gaming to exist so readily? It has only been pvp (pretty much only, anyway) up until recent years.  Millions of people enjoyed it.  Then over a period of time the pve style game kicked in, and any joe hick with a pitchfork and mouse could compete against the mindless repetitive npc zombies, opening the online gaming world to everyone and their 10 year old children.

     

    FPS and RTS pvp built your gaming experience.  All of us who took part of those years are still around, a lot of which are still playing.  And frustrated at the dull gameplay against unimaginative AI that is today's mmorpg world.  Enter WAR and the like, with a primary focus of pvp, and that may get us hooked again.  Assuming its done well, the main problem with so called pvp in most non-fps games these days is that it is not done very well, its tacked on as an afterthought, so not very fun compared to the fps and the like, so we don't play them, and it looks to everyone else like the pvpers are not big crowds.

     

    Build it, we will come.

  • elvenangelelvenangel Member Posts: 2,205

    I don't see why every game has to be called a failure just because it didn't sell like WoW.  Blizzard is a long time super respected PC game company across the WORLD.  The hype and rate in which the game sold is considered a rare phenomenon in the game & especially in the MMO game industry.     I don't think any game will ever see such numbers again atleast not right off the bat.   172,000 copies sold is if every copy is sold for 50 dollar US = $8,600,000 dollars.    I hardly call making 8 million dollars just in selling cds a failure, thats really considered decent if not a complete success.    If their current subscription base is atleast 100,000 they're making roughly $1,500,000 at 15 dollars a month.   All this before bills and the like and they're still profiting.    I think far to many people, especially those that are not familiar with the gaming industry & mmo industry are quick to say these are low numbers.  These are really respectable numbers for a game like Lord of the Rings.

    As for Warhammer?  I think they'll definitly outsell Lord of the Rings.   Its a long established IP, thats rings are well held and controlled by its makers Games Workshop, the hype behind it because it is Warhammer and GW is involved is huge.   Its on the same scale as Blizzard.  Its a world wide well known set of companies.    Will it in my opinion outsell WoW?   If the game is even 3 quarters as good as the hype says it is I think it will compete fairly easily with WOW, beat it?   I dont know its to soon for me to fathom that.  Wow and Blizzard are a power house, a rare gem in the game industry these days.

    Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!

  • oronisioronisi Member Posts: 284

    Originally posted by anubisss


     
    Originally posted by observer


    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/142478
    Now that Midway has released LotRO's numbers, as revealed in that thread, should WAR be worried?  If a major IP like LotR has such low population, what could we expect of Warhammer?
    I've always thought WAR would get between 200k min. to 500k max.  Another thing that bothers me also, is that this game's major focus is PvP, which a lot of people say, is a niche market, and small compared to PvE MMO games.
    I just hope some people don't get their hopes and dreams too high and be realistic.  I know i have, and i'm still going to play WAR since i've never tried an RvR MMO before.
    Am i just being too paranoid?  
    Erm..are you being paranoind..i dont no but if you think WAR will only reach 500k subs you are talking out of your .....I am not going to go into why this is so because i am bored with these threads.

     

    Well if you want to play a game with more PVE and more subs go and do it,no point getting paranoid as you put it..lol.


    Dude, I am sick of people not having a grip on reality.  IF WAR breaks 500k subs, it would be on the top 10 all-time best selling MMOs.  Just because WoW can draw in 9mil doesn't mean any other MMO can draw in even 1/2 that...even 1/4 that.

    If an MMO can get 100k subscribers, it makes a very short list of successful MMOs.

  • Cabe2323Cabe2323 Member Posts: 2,939
    Originally posted by oronisi


     
    Originally posted by anubisss


     
    Originally posted by observer


    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/142478
    Now that Midway has released LotRO's numbers, as revealed in that thread, should WAR be worried?  If a major IP like LotR has such low population, what could we expect of Warhammer?
    I've always thought WAR would get between 200k min. to 500k max.  Another thing that bothers me also, is that this game's major focus is PvP, which a lot of people say, is a niche market, and small compared to PvE MMO games.
    I just hope some people don't get their hopes and dreams too high and be realistic.  I know i have, and i'm still going to play WAR since i've never tried an RvR MMO before.
    Am i just being too paranoid?  
    Erm..are you being paranoind..i dont no but if you think WAR will only reach 500k subs you are talking out of your .....I am not going to go into why this is so because i am bored with these threads.

     

    Well if you want to play a game with more PVE and more subs go and do it,no point getting paranoid as you put it..lol.


    Dude, I am sick of people not having a grip on reality.  IF WAR breaks 500k subs, it would be on the top 10 all-time best selling MMOs.  Just because WoW can draw in 9mil doesn't mean any other MMO can draw in even 1/2 that...even 1/4 that.

     

    If an MMO can get 100k subscribers, it makes a very short list of successful MMOs.

    WAR is expected to be a top 10 selling MMO game.  So it is very much within the expectations for such a big game with as much hype as it has to be a 300K + subscriber game.  Especially since there isn't any competition in the genre from any other RvR games.  (And no WoW is not a RvR game, it is a PVP side show added onto its PVE game) 

    Currently playing:
    LOTRO & WoW (not much WoW though because Mines of Moria rocks!!!!)

    Looking Foward too:
    Bioware games (Dragon Age & Star Wars The Old Republic)

Sign In or Register to comment.