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Prediction on subscriber numbers for LOTR
admriker4
Member Posts: 1,070
Where exactly does Turbine think they wil get players for LOTR. Regardless of the quality of the product, the toughest part is getting people to..
1. Hear about the game
2. Get them to try it
3. If they are current mmo players, leave their current mmo for LOTR
I play WoW, EVE, and sometimes dabble in my son's account with CoH. I also pop back in on old games whenever they allow a free trial (recently went back to see hw swg was). I can count on one hand the number of players Ive run across that have even heard of LOTR. This is a huge problem if Turbine expects large numbers to migrate from other MMO's. In my opinion, not many are heading to LOTR from other games. This is a huge loss in players as past games have managed to grab entire guilds. There are many large guilds out there that have set themselves up in multiple mmorpgs...LOTR isnt ever mentioned as being a possible new home.
I hav hopped from mmo to mmo within many guilds. LOTR isnt mentioned. I have chatted with several friends who I have gamed with for 10+ years, none of their guilds have even talked aboout LOTR. I have checked on a few of the guild portal sites, again no mention on setting up in LOTR.
I think its safe to say that many current mmorpg players have no plans to try LOTR. Therefore, this leaves Turbine to grab up new mmo gamers. Thats a problem, WoW has pretty much pulled in most of their gamers from this market (new to mmo's)...there cant be that many left out there. Plus, unlike WoW turbine has done zero to little advertising or LOTR. I think I may have seen an ad in PC Gamer once or twice but thats it.
Turbine didnt do very well with DDO and that game had a much bigger cult following than LOTR. Plus Turbine actually spent some money to advertise the game.
This adds up to an unsuccessful launch in my opinion.
Im betting in the very best case scenario, ie. Turbine makes the game a lot better than what I saw at E3...possibly getting 125,000 accounts. Its very unlikely as Turbine doesnt have a good track record in changing games in the past based on player feedback in beta.
Worst case, the stink leftover from DDO totally hinders the game. It doesnt break 25,000 accounts.
Im thinking it will end up somewhere in between 35-50k accounts. Certainly this game isnt going to be a huge hit. It doesnt have the key features many mmo gamers want and offers nothing new or innovative. It will get the hardcore tolkien fans but thats about it (and even then many like me wont stay if its boring).
I know many here wont accept my prediction out of hope for the game. I had hope once as well but after seeing it at E3 and talking with several friends who have also gotten a look, its just not a very good game.
Ironically, thats about the same numbers DDO has so its not that surprising honestly if it happens. Turbine failed in my opinion to factor in the correct target market. Had they stuck with the original design implemented by Sierra, sandbox style..good vs evil...choices..real pvp..the game might have appealed to a market sorely in need of a game. Instead they produced yet another WoW / eq clone with little appeal.
Comments
Regal
I would focus on one point made by the OP:
"Therefore, this leaves Turbine to grab up new mmo gamers. Thats a problem, WoW has pretty much pulled in most of their gamers from this market (new to mmo's)...there cant be that many left out there."
This is tough to tell I think. How many more potential MMO players are there out there? Personally, I think there is a LOT, but they've got to be captured in innovative ways, and I don't really see LOTRO doing that from what I've read...
By innovative ways I mean things like this:
- some new environment/virtual world. All the people who think orcs, drawves, and elves are wierd (so they skipped wow) but might play something modern, seedy, or horror based.
- some really new innovative gameplay. Something as big as a mixture of rpg and rts for example. Miedieval total war mmo or something like that.
But again, LOTRO is not doing anything new... in fact, is not doing as much in some areas as the existing MMOs do (no faction pvp, crafting weaker than eq2, housing, guild xp, etc). NOTE: I may be wrong on some details... but in general LOTRO is not really blowing my socks off with innovation....
So very risky venture, by a company on the brink... can turbine survive an LOTRO flop?
This is true. Most of the buzz seems to be around Vanguard. Personally I havent followed Vanguard so I dont know anything about it but it does seem to be the mmo current gamers are following.
Next up would be Age of Conan. This one seems to have a lot of momentum especially among the hardcore pvpers out there.
Warhammer has always had a cult-like following and will grab attention as it gets closer to release.
LOTR just isnt on anyone's mind. Good or bad, I just dont see it doing anything huge number-wise from current gamers. Therefore their only avenue for players is new ones. And seeing how Turbine doesnt advertise, it seems highly unlikely they'll get anyone.
Maybe LOTRO looks like WoW, but i don't think this game won't offer anything new.
'Cause just the univers is very attractive, the fact that we can feel as if we were in the univers of LOTR is very exiting i think.
Wait & See !
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1€ = 2775€ ==> http://www.2775.eu/19837
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1 = 2775 ==> http://www.2775.eu/19837
Reason: Promising game theme,but offers nothing new.
Agreed. The LOTR theme for an MMO sounds awesome in itself, and the LOTR based content, but let's face it... it's all been done! There's nothing new!
" I'm not expecting to see any mmo get WoW like numbers anytime soon."
- Which is surprising, because I think WoW is one of the worst MMOs ever created!
Playing: BF2142
Waiting For: Jumpgate: Evolution
Played: UO, DAoC, MCO, EQ, AO, TSO, Shadowbane, Planetside, SWG, FFXI, CoH, L2, EQ2, WoW, MxO, EVE, AoC
Played 6mo+: UO, EVE
based on what ?
where do you think these players will come from, honestly asking ?
Its not on any gamer's radar in the current MMORPG out there. There arent any guilds talking about setting up shop in LOTR.
They arent advertising the game so who exactly will buy it ? They actually did some advertising with DDO and it failed and that game had a cult-like following the day it was first mentioned as under development. Who exactly is following LOTR with the same fervor ?
MMORPG arent your typical impulse buy in a video game store because it requires a monthly fee. So they wont get many sales from folks who wander in a store.
Nobody knows this game even exists. Current MMO gamers arent foaming at the mouth to play it. Word of mouth thats leaked out from beta players and E3 isnt good. No commercials on television. So where exactly are the sales going to come from ?
I was hyped when DDO was in beta and even joined the beta testing of that game. I would have stayed in there but the main problem of that game is lag due to memory leak. A lot of players complained to Turbine about this, yet they released the game without addressing the issue. In as much as I love DnD, this kind of company attitude will not fly with me, so after the 30-free-subscription, I canceled and moved on. Turbine is not a good company, they care less of the players -- just look at their attitude when they shutdown AC2.
DDO and LOTRO are waste of titles having Turbine to develop them.
Ready for GW2!!!
based on what ?
where do you think these players will come from, honestly asking ?
Its not on any gamer's radar in the current MMORPG out there. There arent any guilds talking about setting up shop in LOTR.
They arent advertising the game so who exactly will buy it ? They actually did some advertising with DDO and it failed and that game had a cult-like following the day it was first mentioned as under development. Who exactly is following LOTR with the same fervor ?
MMORPG arent your typical impulse buy in a video game store because it requires a monthly fee. So they wont get many sales from folks who wander in a store.
Nobody knows this game even exists. Current MMO gamers arent foaming at the mouth to play it. Word of mouth thats leaked out from beta players and E3 isnt good. No commercials on television. So where exactly are the sales going to come from ?
You expect there to be TV commercials even though there isnt an official release date? Besides most MMO's dont have telovised advertisments, they mostly rely on Internet reviews/advertisments that pop up, or on big gaming web sites like IGN or gamespot. And store advertisment like Wallmart, bestbuy and so on. thats where i see most of my reviews.
and by the way, WoW hasnt had a Telovised commercial until about 3 months ago, and before that the game was already border lining 7 mill subs...
based on what ?
where do you think these players will come from, honestly asking ?
Its not on any gamer's radar in the current MMORPG out there. There arent any guilds talking about setting up shop in LOTR.
They arent advertising the game so who exactly will buy it ? They actually did some advertising with DDO and it failed and that game had a cult-like following the day it was first mentioned as under development. Who exactly is following LOTR with the same fervor ?
MMORPG arent your typical impulse buy in a video game store because it requires a monthly fee. So they wont get many sales from folks who wander in a store.
Nobody knows this game even exists. Current MMO gamers arent foaming at the mouth to play it. Word of mouth thats leaked out from beta players and E3 isnt good. No commercials on television. So where exactly are the sales going to come from ?
You expect there to be TV commercials even though there isnt an official release date? Besides most MMO's dont have telovised advertisments, they mostly rely on Internet reviews/advertisments that pop up, or on big gaming web sites like IGN or gamespot. And store advertisment like Wallmart, bestbuy and so on. thats where i see most of my reviews.
and by the way, WoW hasnt had a Telovised commercial until about 3 months ago, and before that the game was already border lining 7 mill subs...
WoW didnt need to advertise. They already had a large following from Battlenet and Warcraft series. Everyone who ever picked up a joystick, gamepad, or mouse was well aware of WoW's launch. The hype was in full swing a year before the game launched. Reviews, special interviews in game mags, various fan sites popping up, etc all were going crazy over WoW's future launch.
What hype is there for LOTR ? Who is salivating over the LOTR launch ? Any guilds mentioning LOTR in other MMO's ? Does Turbine have the reputation and fan base like blizz does ?
No way this game breaks 100k, much less 500-1 million like some are predicting. I will be surprised if it outdoes DDO which was a disaster
If you hang around here a lot, obviously not much. Seriously, the game that Turbine is making, everything they've said about it, is about as anti-MMORPG.com as you can get.
Yeah, I've seen this game discussed positively with other people I've played games with and hang out with. It'll never be popular here though.
based on what ?
where do you think these players will come from, honestly asking ?
Its not on any gamer's radar in the current MMORPG out there. There arent any guilds talking about setting up shop in LOTR.
They arent advertising the game so who exactly will buy it ? They actually did some advertising with DDO and it failed and that game had a cult-like following the day it was first mentioned as under development. Who exactly is following LOTR with the same fervor ?
MMORPG arent your typical impulse buy in a video game store because it requires a monthly fee. So they wont get many sales from folks who wander in a store.
Nobody knows this game even exists. Current MMO gamers arent foaming at the mouth to play it. Word of mouth thats leaked out from beta players and E3 isnt good. No commercials on television. So where exactly are the sales going to come from ?
You expect there to be TV commercials even though there isnt an official release date? Besides most MMO's dont have telovised advertisments, they mostly rely on Internet reviews/advertisments that pop up, or on big gaming web sites like IGN or gamespot. And store advertisment like Wallmart, bestbuy and so on. thats where i see most of my reviews.
and by the way, WoW hasnt had a Telovised commercial until about 3 months ago, and before that the game was already border lining 7 mill subs...
WoW didnt need to advertise. They already had a large following from Battlenet and Warcraft series. Everyone who ever picked up a joystick, gamepad, or mouse was well aware of WoW's launch. The hype was in full swing a year before the game launched. Reviews, special interviews in game mags, various fan sites popping up, etc all were going crazy over WoW's future launch.
What hype is there for LOTR ? Who is salivating over the LOTR launch ? Any guilds mentioning LOTR in other MMO's ? Does Turbine have the reputation and fan base like blizz does ?
No way this game breaks 100k, much less 500-1 million like some are predicting. I will be surprised if it outdoes DDO which was a disaster
I'm fairly sure there are more than 100k gamers out there that are Tolkien fans that will play this game. As a small example, out of my group of gaming friends, my wife is the only die hard Tolkien fan (owns first edition prints of his works), and my friends and I, totalling 10, while we all liked the Lord of the RiIngs movie, only 2-3 of them have read the books. All of us, 11 in total, will be coming to LOTRO. Some of us will buy 2 copies of the game. There is hype for LOTRO, just not on this site. There are people salivating over LOTRO, just really not on this site. There are plenty of guilds mentioning LOTRO in other games, they just may not be up to your calibre when it comes to guilds. If you've played AC 1, you'd know what Turbine can do. If you've played AC 2, you'd know that Turbine knows what not to do. If you've played DDO, you'd know that Turbine will deliver 95%+ on what they promise to be in a game at launch, and they launch games with very little problems (I was there for beta and launch of AC1 and DDO).
It's understandable you personally may not like this game, as well as others who have posted on this thread. The reality is not everyone likes what you like, and there are plenty of gamers out there, as well as Tolkien fans, who will pick this game up. All of that is perfectly O.K. too.
"Many nights, my friend... Many nights I've put a blade to your throat while you were sleeping. Glad I never killed you, Steve. You're alright..."
Chavez y Chavez
I still follow its progress from time to time and I wish it would do well but, the limited focus and many gamers' experiences with restrctive licenses (swg), I think only those that count themselves as hardcore Tolkien afficionados are even slightly interested. It really is unfortunate that the shift went from middle earth online to one seemingly centered around milking people for money based on the successes of the movies.
http://www.speedtest.net/result/7300033012
I think people are missing a lot of the innovative factors that ARE a part of LotRO. If you have read the dev logs and kept up on the forums, you would know there are things offered here that others don't really have. Here are some of the factors to consider:
1. The FATHER of the D&D World: The realms of Middle Earth.
2. Monster Play: a unique form of PvP where players can take on the role of Orcs, Goblins, etc.
3. A VERY involved questing system. Players become part of the story line and not just following random quest lines. The introductory quests in particular involve complex scenes where the players participate in storyline quests.
4. A fairly-developed crafting system. (better than most, but not as developed as SWG was or Vanguard is)
Does it bring a huge amount of innovation to the genre? No, but neither does any other title. Honestly, other than instanced dungeons, raids, and a simplistic design, what does WoW bring to the table? Or Everquest 2? Nothing. Now, if Vanguard can deliver on their promises, they show some innovation with the features they have planned, but most others offer the same standard MMO features with a different coat of paint.
If you are a big fan of Tolkien, and MMOs, you're going to be satisfied with LotRO. If you're a casual gamer, it should also appeal to you. If you're a hardcore, fanatic MMO player... Vanguard will probably be more your cup of tea.
Based on the normal subscriber base of a fairly good MMO in the fantasy genre, this game will probably have 100,000+ subscribers, but will likely not break the 250,000+ level. And personally, if I end up playing this game, I don't want it to be the next WoW, because the community alone makes me want to wretch.