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SWG Subscription discussion

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  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304
    45 showed in San Diego?   Wow! There were at least 250-300 that showed at the Indianapolis summit I went to.

    You are right on your feel for the numbers, there are definitely WAY less than 100K actual active players, but remember, there are more than 100K open subs.  By the end of the year there will be considerably less than 100K total subs, probably down to 75K or so with a lot of those still being cancelled.

    This is why I believe that they will make the decision to cancel the game after 4Q fails to see growth, and actually close the servers in early 2007.



  • iskareotiskareot Member Posts: 2,143


    Originally posted by Wildcat84
    45 showed in San Diego?   Wow! There were at least 250-300 that showed at the Indianapolis summit I went to.

    You are right on your feel for the numbers, there are definitely WAY less than 100K actual active players, but remember, there are more than 100K open subs.  By the end of the year there will be considerably less than 100K total subs, probably down to 75K or so with a lot of those still being cancelled.

    This is why I believe that they will make the decision to cancel the game after 4Q fails to see growth, and actually close the servers in early 2007.




    Man we should have hooked up in Indy for a Drink.

    Lol.. I was at the "Pay no attention we are in a Tornado" summit meeting."--

    I was the guy at the front table drinking Bass Beer and right there with the Bria Tables... Also giving the Devs shit looks and watching them as they squirmed.

    Best thing said -- from a player --" How do you all feel about Jedi being a starting class and free giveaway?" --- THE crowd went nuts... I thought the roof was coming off.   I loved seeing people telling the Devs right to thier face they hated the current state of the game.   

    Pretty much NOT what happend at the Fan Fest prior --

    The Summit meetings were damage control, the Fan Fests were somthing positive and upcoming ideas and things we could look forward to NOT TO MENTION Bria owning on the DWB challenge stuff.

    All in all knowing what we had vs what we have now tells you what the real numbers are.

    Common sense, not Pirrgs crap posts about how the game is doing.   I have seen his posts, crap he wants elder robes for free and a easier game.    He was not successful pre-NGE and now he is trying to be.

    The thing about the NGE that it did succeed with is that they made the game so easy that anyone could do well with little effort.   This was the goal, for that I guess that is a victory -- WHOO HOO!  lol

    ______________________________
    I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
    SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
    Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1

  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156


    using mmogchart.com pop data


     if you extrapolate the subscriptions since the NGE using a trendline , theres a sub rate of 130k atm with  a slope of y = -12000x + 2E+07  or roughly 12k subs a month.....date of 0 population would be late july 2007

    so atm the momeent there is a steep neg slope . if this remains true.... the point when swg is no longer viable might be coming very soon




    image

  • SelothSeloth Member Posts: 388


    Originally posted by miagisan
    using mmogchart.com pop data


     if you extrapolate the subscriptions since the NGE using a trendline , theres a sub rate of 130k atm with  a slope of y = -12000x + 2E+07  or roughly 12k subs a month.....date of 0 population would be late july 2007

    so atm the momeent there is a steep neg slope . if this remains true.... the point when swg is no longer viable might be coming very soon



    Which part of:

    "Star Wars Galaxies  (Accuracy Rating: C)"

    "C – This indicates that most or all of the data points provided are merely industry “best guesses” or are otherwise questionable.  Usually, I will not chart MMOGs that rate C or lower.  Their numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt."

    is not clear?

    No discussion based on data this unreliable can be used to base weither a rational, logical agrument on the current state or future state of the games population. If the Accuracy rating was A, then it could be used in a logical prediction on subs.

  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156
    well using his data....yes i agree....but i think its due to station passes. cause look at it like this

    130k subs atm (say we use his data). if they were all swg, there would be 5000 per server, 20% for prime time would give ya 1k pop per server. and theres NO WAY theres 1k people on at the same time during prime time.so yes this is an over inflation of the data, and the july 07 0 pop date will come MUCH sooner. i was just giving it the benefit of the doubt


    image

  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156
    say we add in the OP's data assumption to the graph....the trend line changes to y = -16353x + 2E+07 or roughly 17k subs lost per month....0 population date would be March 2007, but even that is being optimistic based on original data.

    so basically early next year, we will reach 0 population, which means SWG will no longer will become viable prolly at around the end of this year


    image

  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156

    thats all using a linear trend line.

    if you use a polynomial trendline (slope is y = -1214.4x2 + 3E+06x - 2E+09) ....subs will = 0 around mid nov 06.....hehe....anyone see the irony in that? :P



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  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304
    It will never reach 0, the rate of loss will slow as the sub base gets smaller and smaller and it gets down to the people who like the NGE game.  The people leaving are those who don't like the NGE game and have finally lost tolerance for it/hope for improvement.

    The point to look for is when it gets to <100K, <75K, <50K, <40K, etc.  At one of those points the cancel decision will be made.



  • pirrgpirrg Member Posts: 1,443
    i honestly doubt that they will cancel it anytime soon. I mean just look at MxO, a game that only has a smidgeon of SWG's current playerbase, yet they keep it running.

    _____________________
    I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.

  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156
    yeah but how much you think the cost of the IP of Star Wars vs Matrix is?

    LA i am sure is charging an arm and a leg


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  • miagisanmiagisan Member Posts: 5,156
    double post my bad


    image

  • ShaydeShayde Member Posts: 4,529


    Originally posted by miagisan
    yeah but how much you think the cost of the IP of Star Wars vs Matrix is?

    LA i am sure is charging an arm and a leg




    They have 3 devs and 3 servers. They're still in the black on MxO... they're doing nothing with it.

    As a matter of fact, they just added, get this, A RERUN OF ALL THE OLD STORYLINES. What's old is new again! Morpheus lives again! Deja-vu all over again.

    Shayde - SWG (dead)
    Proud member of the Cabal.
    image

    imageimage
    It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled :( - Some deluded SWG fanboi who pities me.
    I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
    09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0

  • pirrgpirrg Member Posts: 1,443


    Originally posted by miagisan
    yeah but how much you think the cost of the IP of Star Wars vs Matrix is?

    LA i am sure is charging an arm and a leg




    I strongly doubt thats how it works. If LA were getting a fixed ammount of money each month or so as opposed to a percentage of whatever money SWG brings in, then why on earth did they force SOE to create the NGE?

    _____________________
    I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.

  • ShaydeShayde Member Posts: 4,529
    Fantasyland is in Disney World.


    Shayde - SWG (dead)
    Proud member of the Cabal.
    image

    imageimage
    It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled :( - Some deluded SWG fanboi who pities me.
    I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
    09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0

  • kimosabekimosabe Member Posts: 516



    Originally posted by pirrg
    Alright, im going to try to be as unbiased and constructive as possible so i ask the same from you guys, please dont flame this topic to death. Please read the ENTIRE post before responding, thank you in advance.

    Several months back a log of the server populations was popping up here and there on the forums, claiming that all the servers had approx to 400-500 players on them, im sure you remember this as it caused much controversy. I think we can calculate the current user playerbase to around 100-150k using these numbers. How? Read on..

    Pretty much every mmo on the market follows a pattern when it comes to sub numbers. That pattern is that there are approx 15 to 20% players online at any given time. Eve online and DAOC are both proof that this theory is sound.

    Eve online has approx 130k subscribers, with around 20k players online at primetime.

    Now lets look at SWG's numbers.

    According to the "players logged in" log that was posted here several months ago, SWG had about 400-500 players online, multiplied by 26 (26 servers) that becomes 13000. Divided by 0.15 (15%) that becomes 86,666. Or, divided by 0.20 it turns out to 65,000.

    Keeping in mind that this was just a few months after the NGE's release when the games subscription levels were at an all time low due to mass cancellations, and that this was before the expertise system, auto aim, restuss and several other features. Its only fair to assume that swg has even more subscribers now.

    Anyway, thats my take on it.



    There are flaws to your statistics. You say 400-500 players per server, which is only the population of the highest couple, the others were mostly between 200-300 and some were even below that. Then you use EvE statistics to guestimate what percent of subscribers are concurrently playing. EvE has closer to 30k players on at a time, not always more than 30k, but much closer to that than 20k, thus skewing your percentages. You get a number between 60k and 85k with your calculations and then you pull out an imaginary amount of new players upping it to your proposed 100-150k players.

    If you fix up your statistics a little bit, you end up with a calculated total closer to 48k before the claimed return of thousands of players, so maybe 62k. That was giving your statistics the benefit of the doubt, if I wanted to spin the numbers, I can get a figure closer to 20k, and maybe 35k with the buffer addition. Either way, the NGE "hidden rollback" updates have far from doubled or tripled SWG subscriptions. You also have to take into account all the vets coming back on free trials and prospective customers trialing the game for the first time.

    Hopefully, the margin of error I've shown helps prove that statistics are never a good method of calculation. The Erlichs (conservationists and philosophers) prove in their arguments that, with statistics, they are always spun and manipulated, creating a "tyranny of illusionary precision." Sorry for bringing up old threads, but you can't claim any more credibility or accuracy than I can, leaving plausible speculation anywhere from 30k to 90k. I say 90k instead of your 150k because the NGE hasn't doubled in popularity. Sure it may have brought back some players, but if it was in the numbers you're talking, it would be significantly more noticeable ingame.

    Je mettrai l'amour sur dos de moi.

  • GunnyFisherGunnyFisher Member Posts: 65
    You can't use eve's 30%.
    why you ask?
    Eve is a GROWING MMORPG, although with the new changes planned for kali we shall see....



    Have faith in God, believe in antimatter.

  • kimosabekimosabe Member Posts: 516



    Originally posted by GunnyFisher
    You can't use eve's 30%.
    why you ask?
    Eve is a GROWING MMORPG, although with the new changes planned for kali we shall see....



    If this is a reply to my post, then I'll have to agree, 30% is a bad figure, that's why I used 30k. Even if an MMO grows in popularity, it's safe to assume that a relatively stable ratio of users are concurrent, as new subscribers as a whole play the same average number of hours a week the current player population does.

    I've played EvE, and the recent (a couple weeks ago) announcement that the EvE servers can now support 30k concurrent players can lead to fairly reasonable speculation that there are 30k concurrent users. That, however, is not the point. It's the example used to generalize what percent of subscribers are playing SWG at any one time, leading to an answer about total subscription numbers. Also, if you read my post again I never claim any accuracy and am just pointing out the size of the margin of error in pirrg's data. Nobody can guess at the subscription numbers to any MMO using statistics.

    Je mettrai l'amour sur dos de moi.

  • mpedersenmpedersen Member Posts: 40



    Originally posted by Rekrul
    I find the 100-150k number accurate, especially if it includes Station Pass and trial accounts.

    SWG is in many aspects an old game, and the active player population is dropping, but not the subscriptions. Also, returning players who just want to try might play for a day, but subscribe for a month.

    But the $60 question here is the following:
    Assuming the population turnaround, how many would SWG have today, if NGE hadn't happened, and TooW were the last notable addition? More? Or less?




    Even if the numbers are accurate,  that's still a VERY low number for what you'd expect a Star Wars MMO to pull in.  This game,  had it been complete when released could have been WOW.  They sold over 1 million boxes,  but many people probably never stayed for their second month of service because of the glaring problems the game had (and still has).

    Bugs went on for years,  several professions were non-factors.  What's the point.

    Had the game released in some kind of near finished state (such as that of wow) it could have pulled in the millions of people blizzard did.

  • TazBakerTazBaker Member Posts: 8
    All this take about numbers, so I figured I would throw this like out for you all.  There is some good info in here, and you can deffently see when SOE started making the changes to SWG as well as the impact thoes changes has on there subscription numbers.  http://mmogchart.com/
  • NeuroXlNeuroXl Member Posts: 291

    well the difference between the assumed subscription numbers then and your guess is that .. the former figure was in fact based on numbers ...

    your figure is based on a guess that the game has indeed grown .. which it may have ...but its still a "guess" and your guess is as good as mine ...and i dont think it has 150k subs .. i would guess ... around .. 75 to 90k ... active subs .... another 10k or so k trying it out every so often to seeif it has gotten any better and cenceling after first month ...

  • metatronicmetatronic Member Posts: 329
    Sony hire's people to write good reviews for movies and games. Do a little research on it, and I'm 100% sure this op is a paid sony shill.. Even mcquaid for Vanguard mentioned something about it.. I forget the term he used but someone pointed out the fact that it basically means Sigil will pay someone to troll forums 8 hrs a day putting on a nice PR show..



    There was a guy on the swg forum named reboot.. He was a paid shill too.. No one could take what sony did to that game and say as much positive things as that guy did.. Even when the game was absolutely utter crap, reboot was in everyone of my posts saying no no the game is great now, you just need to adjust to the new combat... Ya I adjusted to it alright, by canceling.. How's that for adjustment shill..
  • abbabaabbaba Member Posts: 1,143

    One thing you have to keep in mind is that the "one character per server" policy helped subscriptions a lot. There was a poll on the official website back when I was still playing that said that 50% of players had more than one account, some with 5+.

    Also there are some people who had 6 or 12 month subscriptions who are technically still subscribed but don't login at all anymore.

    I  would say that however many subscriptions there are there are perhaps half that number of active players.

  • duncan_922duncan_922 Member Posts: 1,670
    A post by the same guy that wrote this???:



    Thank god for SOE. They are the only mmo company that are not afraid to push limits and explore moral boundaries. Im astonshed people are surprised by their latest move. Theyve dangled carrots infront of your collective faces for over 2 years and youve blindly followed them on their trail of broken promises. Every few months they introduce some radical changes and every single time the vocal minority on the official forums threaten to quit, sue and in some cases bludgeon. Yet two years later, there is a plethora of veterans still playing the game.

    SOE knows this. They have you figured out. Thats why there is no discussion or feedback on the base concept this time around. The NGE is happening no matter if you like it or not because terrible though it may be, the majority will swallow it and keep paying.

    I for one am excited by the new changes and impressed by SOE's blatant display of arrogance and apathy towards their paying customers. From experience, devs that listen to their players and implement their ideas and suggestions accordingly are the bane and strife of any half decent mmorpg.

    /salute SOE



    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/56162



    Yeah!  He's one to take seriously...  

    SOE knows what you like... You don't!
    And don't forget... I am forcing you to read this!

  • iskareotiskareot Member Posts: 2,143
    Originally posted by duncan_922

    A post by the same guy that wrote this???:




    Thank god for SOE. They are the only mmo company that are not afraid to push limits and explore moral boundaries. Im astonshed people are surprised by their latest move. Theyve dangled carrots infront of your collective faces for over 2 years and youve blindly followed them on their trail of broken promises. Every few months they introduce some radical changes and every single time the vocal minority on the official forums threaten to quit, sue and in some cases bludgeon. Yet two years later, there is a plethora of veterans still playing the game.
    SOE knows this. They have you figured out. Thats why there is no discussion or feedback on the base concept this time around. The NGE is happening no matter if you like it or not because terrible though it may be, the majority will swallow it and keep paying.
    I for one am excited by the new changes and impressed by SOE's blatant display of arrogance and apathy towards their paying customers. From experience, devs that listen to their players and implement their ideas and suggestions accordingly are the bane and strife of any half decent mmorpg.
    /salute SOE



    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/56162



    Yeah!  He's one to take seriously...  



     

    Yep and I just got back from being on the servers.



    NO WAY is there near at any possible way even 30k people playing this game right now though.

    I would bet 15k tops in peak time on the weekends.

    I was on Bria for two hours yesterday and man.... it was a unreal sad sight to see.

    ______________________________
    I usually picture the Career builder commercial with the room full of monkeys and upside down sales chart when thinking about the SOE/SWG decision making process.....
    SOE's John Blakely and Todd Fiala issued a warning: "Don't make our mistakes." Ref NGE
    Winner of the worst MMOS goes to.... the NGE and SWG..!!! http://www.mmorpg.com/showFeature.cfm?loadFeature=1034&bhcp=1

  • pirrgpirrg Member Posts: 1,443

    I think this thread still applies to swg, now more then before. The subscription count has been bolstered by the influx of returning vets, longing for the content that pre-cu swg never had. Good times swg fans, good times.

    _____________________
    I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.

This discussion has been closed.