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New SWG-NGE death timeline (revised)

Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304
Based on today, I think I was too optimistic.

I think it goes more like this:

10/6/06:  SWG loses more subs than on any single day since the NGE due to Dev meltdown.

11/15/06:  Boxed set isn't even sold in most game stores, fails.

11/16/06: Decision made to sunset SWG.

11/17/06: Rumor reports of shutdown hits forums.  50%+ of remaining sub base cancels that day.

12/26/06: Shutdown announced for 1/15/07

1/15/07:  Last server closed.

Could be.  They pissed a lot of people off today.

The demise of the NGE can't be prevented by any development effort that can be done.  It CAN be hastened however by the morons talking.  As they did today.




Comments

  • RekrulRekrul Member Posts: 2,961
    Meh, lets just do it all over this weekend.

  • ObraikObraik Member Posts: 7,261
    I don't see how you think a blow up on the forums (which btw, I agree with what they said) will cause a mass deduction in people.  The forums are not a big population of the game and the people that ARE upset about what was said don't play the game (they're paying because they want to post).  A few people in my groups in game today mentioned it and yes, they too were agreeing with the devs.  Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.

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  • jrscottjrscott Member Posts: 1,252


    Originally posted by Obraik
    Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.

    We'll see after 24 hours if you are right.  Please let us know.  Seriously.  I think it will take a little time to filter down.  It usually does.

    I realize I said I quit. I never said it was forever :)

  • ObraikObraik Member Posts: 7,261


    Originally posted by jrscott

    Originally posted by Obraik
    Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.
    We'll see after 24 hours if you are right.  Please let us know.  Seriously.  I think it will take a little time to filter down.  It usually does.


    I doubt it.  I see very few people from my galaxy in game who post on or actively comment about the forums.

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  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304


    Originally posted by Obraik
    I don't see how you think a blow up on the forums (which btw, I agree with what they said) will cause a mass deduction in people.  The forums are not a big population of the game and the people that ARE upset about what was said don't play the game (they're paying because they want to post).  A few people in my groups in game today mentioned it and yes, they too were agreeing with the devs.  Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.

    This is because I believe that ChrisCao's supposition is wrong.  As does Raph Koster, who posted his reply to that thread in a new blog post :)

    People hang on to the game and forums for hope.  Hope that SOE comes to it's senses (and undoes NGE)  or pulls a rabbit out of their hat with NGE.

    SOE did more to damage themselves today than any day since the NGE.

    The NGE's fate is sealed as of now.  No chance for it ever.  Pre-Cu or shutdown.


  • swiftflowswiftflow Member Posts: 239


    Originally posted by Obraik

    Originally posted by jrscott

    Originally posted by Obraik
    Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.
    We'll see after 24 hours if you are right.  Please let us know.  Seriously.  I think it will take a little time to filter down.  It usually does.


    I doubt it.  I see very few people from my galaxy in game who post on or actively comment about the forums.


    But do they read the forums? I use to read the SWG forums all the time and posted twice.
  • ObraikObraik Member Posts: 7,261


    Originally posted by Wildcat84

    Originally posted by Obraik
    I don't see how you think a blow up on the forums (which btw, I agree with what they said) will cause a mass deduction in people.  The forums are not a big population of the game and the people that ARE upset about what was said don't play the game (they're paying because they want to post).  A few people in my groups in game today mentioned it and yes, they too were agreeing with the devs.  Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.
    This is because I believe that ChrisCao's supposition is wrong.  As does Raph Koster, who posted his reply to that thread in a new blog post :)

    People hang on to the game and forums for hope.  Hope that SOE comes to it's senses (and undoes NGE)  or pulls a rabbit out of their hat with NGE.

    SOE did more to damage themselves today than any day since the NGE.

    The NGE's fate is sealed as of now.  No chance for it ever.  Pre-Cu or shutdown.




    He wasn't actively replying to ChrisCao, he referred to a few other games that have done simillar though.

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  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304


    Originally posted by Obraik

    Originally posted by Wildcat84

    Originally posted by Obraik
    I don't see how you think a blow up on the forums (which btw, I agree with what they said) will cause a mass deduction in people.  The forums are not a big population of the game and the people that ARE upset about what was said don't play the game (they're paying because they want to post).  A few people in my groups in game today mentioned it and yes, they too were agreeing with the devs.  Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum.

    This is because I believe that ChrisCao's supposition is wrong.  As does Raph Koster, who posted his reply to that thread in a new blog post :)

    People hang on to the game and forums for hope.  Hope that SOE comes to it's senses (and undoes NGE)  or pulls a rabbit out of their hat with NGE.

    SOE did more to damage themselves today than any day since the NGE.

    The NGE's fate is sealed as of now.  No chance for it ever.  Pre-Cu or shutdown.




    He wasn't actively replying to ChrisCao, he referred to a few other games that have done simillar though.


    Surely you are NOT that naive...

    Come on.

  • Concord7Concord7 Member Posts: 125


    Originally posted by swiftflow
    But do they read the forums? I use to read the SWG forums all the time and posted twice.



    You can check the numbers directly from SOE- They have users online and guests. The users online is a little misleading as there are many people logged on multiple times.

    Here is the link

    http://soe.lithium.com/swg/users_online

    Using the 20% number (while being generous- I have been watching these numbers for a while now), I estimate no more than 25k subs for SWG 

  • AntariousAntarious Member UncommonPosts: 2,802

    "I don't see how you think a blow up on the forums (which btw, I agree with what they said) will cause a mass deduction in people.  The forums are not a big population of the game and the people that ARE upset about what was said don't play the game (they're paying because they want to post).  A few people in my groups in game today mentioned it and yes, they too were agreeing with the devs.  Most people in the groups did not know about it at all, did not care about it and don't actively browse the forums outside the galaxy forum."

    You know.. I really don't have anything against you.. in any personal way.

    Yet you play and live in a different reality than I do.

    But don't take that wrong.  I mean its a subjective thing... but what you usually post is not what I have seen or ever see or even hear in game.  LIke I say that's subjective because if you aren't in the same place at the same time.. and everyone puts a spin on things based on their view point.

    But seriously there is one objective thing.  The reality is there isn't much more damage they can do at this point.  The server I played on from launch and sometimes (I hate to admit) I still log in.. is as close to running my own server as I can get.

    I mean.. most anywhere I go I'm the only one on it.

    So like I say.. from my perspective (at the current time) no a blow up on the boards isn't going to change much.  Then again I don't have to ask groupies if they read the forums.. cuz like I said.. when I play I am basicly on my own server.

  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304
    Every mass exodus that has happened with SWG has had a HUGE forum meltdown associated with it.  CU and NGE both.  This is yet a third one, the one where finally, the last give up hope.

    What has been happening with SWG's sub base since NGE is pretty obvious.  There are two types of current SWG subscriber:  Those who actually like the NGE and where it's going, and those who hate the NGE, wish they'd roll back, but haven't given up hope yet that somehow they will either make the NGE fun or rollback, or do classic servers. 

    Eventually the second group gives up and leaves, and all that will be left are the tiny core (I'd say no more than 10-20%) of the pre-NGE sub base.


  • JestorRodoJestorRodo Member UncommonPosts: 2,642
     Its like being a vampire hunter and shoving a stake thru the abomination known as the NGE , heart. Too bad that the Master Bloodsucker, SOE has more horrors waiting in the wings ( ie DC universe) .

    Unaware of the Jestor?
    http://about.me/JestorRodo/

    Friends enjoy his classic Vblog - https://www.facebook.com/GoodOldReliableNathan

  • RekrulRekrul Member Posts: 2,961


    Originally posted by Concord7

    Originally posted by swiftflow
    But do they read the forums? I use to read the SWG forums all the time and posted twice.


    You can check the numbers directly from SOE- They have users online and guests. The users online is a little misleading as there are many people logged on multiple times.

    Here is the link

    http://soe.lithium.com/swg/users_online


    Using the 20% number (while being generous- I have been watching these numbers for a while now), I estimate no more than 25k subs for SWG 


    We're talking total numbers, not concurrent numbers.

    At any given time, only a fraction of players will be logged in. Of those, only a fraction will post on forums.

    20%? of ENTIRE population post on forums. They do not post concurrently.
    10-30%? are CONCURRENTLY logged into game.

    So, forums x (15 - 50) = subscription numbers.

    This, of course, is extremly inacurate.

    Right now, there are 680 forum users logged in. Would that make total subscriptions 3500? It really is pointless to estimate this way, since the concurrent vs. total numbers are a big unknown. Subscriptions also last long, it's the usual inactive period of the year, and so on.


  • Concord7Concord7 Member Posts: 125


    Originally posted by Rekrul
    We're talking total numbers, not concurrent numbers.

    At any given time, only a fraction of players will be logged in. Of those, only a fraction will post on forums.

    20%? of ENTIRE population post on forums. They do not post concurrently.
    10-30%? are CONCURRENTLY logged into game.

    So, forums x (15 - 50) = subscription numbers.

    This, of course, is extremly inacurate.

    Right now, there are 680 forum users logged in. Would that make total subscriptions 3500? It really is pointless to estimate this way, since the concurrent vs. total numbers are a big unknown. Subscriptions also last long, it's the usual inactive period of the year, and so on.







    The post said "Roughly 80% of the people who play SWG never read these boards.".  In addition, I have taken data points for over a month now.  Included in the data for users logged on are GUESTS (people who are not posting but reading). The link also provides the minutes that the logged in users have been logged on. From this data you can derive a a good estimate of the number of readers/posters.

  • Wildcat84Wildcat84 Member Posts: 2,304
    Their "the forum posters are the vocal minority" argument would hold a lot more water if the subscriber trend didn't follow along with the message board anger trend. 

    If they still had 200K subs and the message boards were full of hate and flames, they'd have a point.  But that isn't the case.  The board is full of flames and they've lost more than 100K subs.



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