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I agree with ianubisi completely. I mean, if he is using his own data to generate all these reports, the World of Warcraft population has lost some of its upward velocity but it isn't falling... This thread seems to assume that the individual population charts contradict the total population charts... I mean, yeah if for some reason he decided to work from two totally separate sets of data to generate the graphs then it might be possible.
I also agree with Pantastic. If you want to look for trends, look down that graph with the total populations. There are several peaks and valleys. The only difference is that this peak and its corresponding valley are a bit more extreme (and at a higher overall altitude). Now, if the decline continues it might be worth looking at but its like you're trying to claim it's a sustained trend.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
I agree with the analisys on the previous page quoting the splitting of the general genre as reason for a decline for some games and failure to attract expected revenues for some of the new titles.
Wow indeed is on the very casual side of the genre. Quick, satisfying, reasonably simple with a high 'bling' ratio.
Niche MMO's like SoR, Eve and others trend towards the sandbox ideal of many old style MMO players.
In the past, this dvidide was less pronounced. You had game that hung towards the sandbox side (UO for example) and games that hung towards the 'scripted' side (most of the rest of the mainstream euro-american releases). But the difference wasn't that large so as to speak of two different markets.
WoW has moved the bar on the arcade-style 'scirpted' type MMO. It is of very high quality, yet more extreme in being casual-friendly, easy and licked.
On the other hand we see more niche games catering to the sandbox gamestyle in whole new ways (Eve, SL, SoR, ATITD and others that combine new groundbreaking ideas into niceh games that actually do pretty well considering their level of production and investment).
What suffers is the middle ground. And that's exactly the games that lose the subscribers. The games that are either older and less pronounced, or are newer but lack distinctiveness when it comes to choosing one of the genres in which the old MMO genre seems to be splitting up. They can't compete with WoW when it comes to the strengths of that game, nor with the niche games when it comes to catering to those that like freedom and mallability.
Maybe in time things will return to the previous state, but I'd expect things to actually move further down this course, resulting in three subgenres for an MMO: arcade/casual, RPG/immersive and Sandbox/social.
Its no wonder that the games that try and cover two or all of these subgenres struggle to attract players that have the choice to go for a title specialising in one subgenre instead. They'll suffer relative to the days when there were no subgenres.
I'd expect things to actually move further down this course, resulting in three subgenres for an MMO: arcade/casual, RPG/immersive and Sandbox/social.
I really like that breakdown, thanks. I hope you don't mind if I barrow it a few times
OwynCommander, Defenders of Orderhttp://www.defendersoforder.com
Originally posted by VhalnPeople might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
The super-hardcore types couldn't even imagine letting their subscription lapse, but the 'game as a life' people are not the majority of the subscription numbers. But a lot of other people really don't care enough about a game to be worried about suspending a subscription while they don't really play the game. You might worry that you're going to fall behind the gear curve, and you'll miss those new raids and have to catch up, and your honor system rank will decay, but for someome who already doesn't play a lot they're already not at the top of gear, don't raid or don't raid the latest-and-greatest, and don't have the hours/day to keep up a serious honor system rank anyway.
If I'm a college student going from a free high-speed connection at school to an apartment during my summer job, why pay the premium for high-speed access and $15/month/game when I can just cancel for a few months and save up more? If I'm a working guy who's going to be fishing after work, why keep paying money for something I might play once or twice a month? If I have guild wars, why not just play that once every few weeks for free for my MMO fix instead of paying monthly some other sub? Unsubscribing for half a year from a $15/month game saves you $90; while not a huge amount of money, it's certainly a noticeable chunk.
Doubt all you want, but the subscription numbers consistently dip every summer, not just this one. Plus, like I mentioned earlier, a lot of people who leave an MMO in spring or summer time are going to just not bother finding a new one and subscribing when they're hardly even going to play it, they'll wait until winter.
Well i wish someone would hire me...
I have been around since UO in MMO world, hack i even started playing games when ping pong came out...
I know what is needed in a new MMO
As a marketing man i also know a little, have a view on how teh markets are going and where niches will pop up..
The problem is that developers listen only to themsleves or commercial pressured things...
Vanguard is a bit different and will have a nice player base, but realy new xxx
Aion hasnot either cause they miss out on socialize rpg etc...
Huxley and SUn look cool and their looks will have players follow them
No there is none at this point in developement and on teh interent that can turn around the view of points 1,2 and 3 og the first poster.
Time, patience .. think it will take 2 years at least...
any game company feel free to PM me ..
Have no fear, Xru is here.
Originally posted by SirBruceOriginally posted by TeeBeeNZ The only thing MMOGCharts suggest is you're stupid enough to read them. The results they have are inaccurate, incomplete and frankly way off. I would have thought the website design would have hinted at its quality let alone to large chunk of missing data.
Wow, since you know they are way off, you must know the real numbers. So, do tell us, what's the REAL data? What's that? You don't know what you're talking about? That's what I thought.
Originally posted by PantasticOriginally posted by VhalnPeople might play less during the summer, but I doubt they'd stop playing entirely and cancel subscriptions.
Originally posted by Pantastic
could't have said it better. plus, wow attracted a LOT of "casuals" who are just waiting for the expansion atm (they don't like the raidgrind, pvp is out of question with the system) and start their 5th char.. so, lvl another char to 60 or quit for the summer and enjoy the weather ?
The chart doesn't show what games are best because the masses play easy games. The best games are much more complex. The steeper the learning and skill curve, the less the mass appeal.
Originally posted by Jenny2The chart doesn't show what games are best because the masses play easy games. The best games are much more complex. The steeper the learning and skill curve, the less the mass appeal.
Originally posted by SirBruceI don't think all that many people are quitting WoW yet. The average customer life is over 14 months now. And a lot of people who have quit are expected to come back to WoW when the expansion finally comes out.Bruce
hi SirBruce. is this 14 months you are taling about the average life of a WoW customer or an all-game average customer life?
and if it is a WoW customer average life, can you explain where do you get that data from? i mean, does Blizzard public that kind of information or it can be calculated from sales and suscriptions?
is there any web page that lists average customer life for the most popular MMORPGs?
and thanks a lot for your great work.
I think drop is because of the lack of new interesting mmorpg releases, lately all new mmorpgs are copies of other old mmorpgs, and others like Auto Assault are realeased pretty buggy and with a huge lack of content and get reviews
I think the community right now is asking for more and we are not giving our money that easy because we want something fresh, we want to have real impact on a virtual world
Im in the "Wow is stupid and i cant find a good fresh new mmorpg so im not playing any mmorpg at the momment" category
Ppl got no impact on wow, there isnt a real community, there is no politics, no housing, is just a normal mmorpg with cute graphics, big maps, lots of mobs, and lots of go kill 40 spiders quests, crafting is as simple as it gets, it is simple... they just knew how to appeal to a new public that wasnt the normal experienced mmorpg players
Thats all... of course i love some small things from WoW that i think any game should have, like the mail system, the auctions house, the fact that WoW runs like a charm on almost any decent machine, it feels smooth when u play it, fast paced combat
It is a pretty pretty sad thing that some devs have made a second game on the same series and they still have less subscriptions on their new game, like EQ and AC, well the AC case is even worst
--------------------------------Currently Playing: Guild Wars 2 and Path of Exile
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Originally posted by SirBruce I don't think all that many people are quitting WoW yet. The average customer life is over 14 months now. And a lot of people who have quit are expected to come back to WoW when the expansion finally comes out.Bruce
Based WoW forum reading (ie. extremely subjective) I would agree with Bruce here. But I would add the caveat that a very large number of people are probably reaching their limit.
The "raid or quit" threads never stop on the boards and the pvp threads while less prevalent are just as consistent. There are tons of disatisfied/disgruntled people and a lot more people are now cynical of Blizzard whereas they used to have a measure of faith/trust for them, but they just won't quit. When I quit WoW I posted on the boards for a month or so about what my problems were and then left. That was 6 months ago. Some of the people who agreed with me at the time are still showing up from time to time in the "Raid or Quit" threads. They have clearly kinda given up trying to say much about it, but they are still around. Some of these people are just hanging on for any excuse to forgive/beleive Blizzard again. Blizzard tells them the expansion will solve everything. So most likely they will buy it.
The CM's just seem to say "Who are you going to believe; Me or your lying eyes?" and even the newer disgruntled people jump at the chance to "I believe you not my silly eyes". And the old digruntled people sigh and just say "Fine fiine, I'll buy the expansion, but this is the last time! Well until you tell me the next expansion will solve all these sme problems and then I will buy that one too."
Yes an extremely large amount of people are pissed at Blizzard, but most don't leave. Some, like me, leave as soon as they see the writing on the wall, but most don't. There are certainly a large number of people leaving because of the hot buttons issues, but percentage wise its not enough yet to seriously hurt WoW. I believe its significant enough in North America for Blizz to have taken notice, but that is about it.
I think Blizzards North American subs are slowing down, it defintely seems that way from Bruce's graph (although I don't put too much stock in press release info). But I don't expect to see major losses in western markets for WoW until there is a MMO of similar quality and theme. No matter how unhappy people won't just stop they will need something else to occupy them and they will need to have something exciting to make them leave the investment of an MMO character behind. People are who are first time Online gamers (MMO or MUD) are especially attached to characters they have invested a large amount of time in. Most WoW players haven't reached a point where they can easily give up their guys.
I will say that I think the CM's current strategy of saying "Wait for the expansion, we will fix everything we messed up in the patches" is not a good idea and will hurt them more than they help. Saying that outloud makes people think. And the idea that customers will need to buy the fix is extremely shifty to many. It also leads to the thought they are just humoring you for money since that strategy is plainly geared towards maximizing profit over customer service. If they say that line for 6 months and it seems to a lot of people that they aren't delivering then BC may take a much larger hit than they project. A large portion of WoW success is built upon the faith/confidence so many people have in them to make decent decisions. They have eroded so much of that in the last year, it could turn on a dime. At some point there will be some sort of straw that breaks the camel's back if Blizz doesn't do something. Telling people "Tough luck Raid, Quit or <wait six months and pay $50 for some unspecified magic fix and in the meantime get slaughtered by Naxx DPS weapons that do twice the damage your weapons do>, noob" is not great. Its especially galling to some since they believe Blizzard is raking in tons of money.
Look at this pie chart:
Click Here - Click on Market Share by Genre on the left column
93.5% MMOs are fantasy
I dont know about you guys, but i am SICK to my stomach of elves, dwarfs and all that other fantasy shit they keep coming out with. I am not alone in this thinking.
4.1% in Sci-Fi MMOs? I mean cmon wtf is that! There are tons of Sci-Fi fans out there, from the star wars fans, to the star trek fans, to stargate fans, to alien fans, to all the shows in sci-fi, and from all that we have a measly 4.1% of MMOs that are sci-fi? (Yes i know stargate and star-trek coming out)
Even with some new Sci-Fi games mentioned for release thats a far cry from fantasy monopoly. What about the space sci-fi? EVE online..........thats it. Its truly sad.
Devs wake up, we dont fantasy games ALL the time!
Originally posted by gestalt11 If they say that line for 6 months and it seems to a lot of people that they aren't delivering then BC may take a much larger hit than they project. A large portion of WoW success is built upon the faith/confidence so many people have in them to make decent decisions. They have eroded so much of that in the last year, it could turn on a dime. At some point there will be some sort of straw that breaks the camel's back if Blizz doesn't do something.
I think Blizz has already burned a lot of their reputation with people, the people I've talked to who left WOW don't have a high opinion of Blizzard. Not 'I'll never buy from them again', but they don't think 'Blizzard game? Ahh, that's gotta be good' like they did before experiencing WOW's endgame in action. I think BC is very likely to crash the last bit of their reputation; they've been hyping it as the solution for all nonraider woes, but from the actual information they've released it's a very temporary solution. I mean, there's a handful of nonraid dungeons (fewer than the raid dungeons) and they seem to be setup to where the whole dungeon has wings, with starter nonraid wings and a finishing raid wing. Plus they haven't actually said they're changing itemization around, and the lead designer is on record saying that he'll never make nonraid items competitive with raid items.
Originally posted by GMan33Look at this pie chart:Click Here - Click on Market Share by Genre on the left column93.5% MMOs are fantasyI dont know about you guys, but i am SICK to my stomach of elves, dwarfs and all that other fantasy shit they keep coming out with. I am not alone in this thinking.4.1% in Sci-Fi MMOs? I mean cmon wtf is that! There are tons of Sci-Fi fans out there, from the star wars fans, to the star trek fans, to stargate fans, to alien fans, to all the shows in sci-fi, and from all that we have a measly 4.1% of MMOs that are sci-fi? (Yes i know stargate and star-trek coming out)Even with some new Sci-Fi games mentioned for release thats a far cry from fantasy monopoly. What about the space sci-fi? EVE online..........thats it. Its truly sad.Devs wake up, we dont fantasy games ALL the time!
you seem to be forgetting historical MMORPGs
Mustache is a catThat has to go to the vetDo your taxes now
Originally posted by neuronomadI think it is hard to really look at the charts and figure out anythingconcrete. I assume that many MMO players are like me. I drift fromone MMO to the next rarely actually playing one to EndGame. I have played almost all the big names and most of the little ones:WoW, EQ2, DAoC, AA, GW, RFO , yadda yadda yadda. And rarely can Istand taking a toon past the half way mark. The main reason is that Iget too caught up in trying each class and race and soon get burnt outafter doing the same low level zones over and over again. My MMO hopes lie within upcoming titles like Huxley, Stargate Worldsand Star Trek Online. I am really not a Fantasy person but prettymuch to play a popular MMO you have to play a Fantasy MMO. Sure thereare games like Eve (which I just couldn't get into), RF Online (readKorean 'all toons look alike' grindfest) and Auto Assualt (a cool gamebut too much like a arcade game), but none really have fit my SciFitaste. I think Huxley will change this by hopefully sucessfullycombining my two favorite gaming genres MMO and FPS. And StargateWorlds and Star Trek Online if done correctly could prove to be hugehits in my book. I think another big issue is because of games like DnL and Seed comingout and still being Beta (or even Alpha) quality. MMO players aregetting sick and tired of paying monthly fees while they are in effectpaying to beta test a product. I am rambling but to repeat again I personally think the biggest issuewith MMOs right now is that there really is only three flavors 1. TheEQ Clones like WoW, DAoC, EQ2 etc. 2. The Korean Grindfest like RFOnline, Lineage 2. and 3. The Pay2Beta games like Seed, DnL.