Quantcast

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

WoW sinking in the site ratings

1235722

Comments

  • IcoGamesIcoGames Member Posts: 2,360


    Originally posted by lomiller
    At $15 per month and 6.5 million subscriptions and ~4 million new boxes sold WoW alone should be bringing in almost $1.5 billion all by itself. If WoW by itself dwarfs the entire retail PC game market how relevant can statistic from this market be for evaluating MMO popularity?

    ...

    (On a side note I can’t really see evidence in Vivendi’s annual report of this much income so there is probably some discrepancy in the way the number of subscriptions are tracked. One possible explanation for this would be a very large Asian market where subscriptions tend to be handled slightly differently.)



    Clicky

    This is Raph Koster's take on subscription and revenue estimates.

    Ico
    Oh, cruel fate, to be thusly boned. Ask not for whom the bone bones. It bones for thee.

  • lomillerlomiller Member Posts: 1,810


    Originally posted by Gameloading
    Speak for yourself. I care, for one.


    And you speak for everyone who frequents this site?  If you have different sensibilities then the majority of people who visit this site then good for you, but don’t complain that the opinions of the rest of the people who come here are unreflective of gamers.  These ranking reflect the opinions of the people who come here, if you don’t fit in with that community and can’t benefit from the opinions of that community maybe you are visiting the wrong website.   

    You can’t have it both ways, either the community of this site is of value to you and the rankings are valid, or you have a different set of sensibilities and are simply trying to impose those on the community.  Feel free to have opinions that differ from these ranking, feel free to find a website where the community can give you information more relevant to your sensibilities but don’t go around saying the views of the community are worthless simply because they differ from your own.



    Originally posted by Gameloading 
    asian players are just as much mmorpg players as western. I see no reason why we shouldn´t include them.


    The fact that 1 billion Chinese people like authentic Chinese food tells me nothing about what food I am likely to enjoy.  If you are going to look at what other people like in order to asses what you may or may not like you need to be looking at people with similar tastes.



  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289


    Originally posted by lomiller

    The PC gaming market isn’t $100 billion but the relevant fact is that the overall gaming market is; which is one of the reasons retail outlets don’t pay a lot of attention to PC games these days.  The other reason is that PC’s are almost all web enabled giving PC gamers many more options for getting their games.  

    Not only does $950million not make up 75% of the PC gaming market, it doesn’t even reach 75% of market size for a single PC game, WoW.  The retail market is simply not a good barometer of what is popular with serious PC games, which is why you see games like the Sims dominating retail PC game sales.


    You are confusing PC Game Unit Sales and the entire dollars that make up the PC Games Industry (which includes things likes subs, unit sales, etc.).  The entire PC Game Retail Sales in 2005 was $950M, I do not know what the total PC Game Sales were and several games are online enabled but still the MAJORITY of PC Game Unit Sales come from Retail purchases (again I would say over 75%).  Sometime soon NPD is suppose to start releasing this information but I haven't seen it yet.

    Also compare the size of the market for what you call "serious PC games" to "casual PC games" such as the Sims.  Casual PC games generate more unit sales revenue, whether you want to call that popularity or not it doesn't matter as the saying goes - money talks!  Just because something is popular on this site or on other gamer sites doesn't make it universally popular, it makes it popular to a small group of players that dwarf is comparison to the entire gaming population. 

  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289


    Originally posted by baff

    The PC game sales market for North America in 2005 was about 1.4 billion USD
    The P.C. game sales market in the U.K. in 2005 about 1.2 billion USD
    The P.C. game sales market in Continental Europe was about 1 billion USD.
    Figures courtesy of ELSPA/ESA.
    $950 million in a $100 billion industry is small potatoes in my opinion. 
    A few more useless statistics.
    Total video games sales (All platforms) in the U.S.A. for 2005 were 13.4 Billion USD.
    PC games make up about 1/10th of all video games sales in North America.
    PC games make up about 1/5th of all video games sales in the U.K.
    PC games make up about 1/3 of all video games sales in the E.U.


    So if PC Game Sales in 2005 = $1.4B, and Retail PC Game Sales in 2005 = $950M then Retail made up 68% of PC Game Sales.  7 pts off, I can live with that :)
  • ScarisScaris Member UncommonPosts: 5,332


    Originally posted by IcoGames
    Originally posted by lomiller
    At $15 per month and 6.5 million subscriptions and ~4 million new boxes sold WoW alone should be bringing in almost $1.5 billion all by itself. If WoW by itself dwarfs the entire retail PC game market how relevant can statistic from this market be for evaluating MMO popularity? ...(On a side note I can’t really see evidence in Vivendi’s annual report of this much income so there is probably some discrepancy in the way the number of subscriptions are tracked. One possible explanation for this would be a very large Asian market where subscriptions tend to be handled slightly differently.)
    ClickyThis is Raph Koster's take on subscription and revenue estimates.

    Good read Ico!

    - Scaris

    "What happened to you, Star Wars Galaxies? You used to look like Leia. Not quite gold bikini Leia (more like bad-British-accent-and-cinnamon-bun-hair Leia), but still Leia nonetheless. Now you look like Chewbacca." - Computer Gaming World

  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289



    Originally posted by Minsc

    You also have to look at retention rates and churn, the average subscriber retention rates in most MMO's is 2 months or less, WoW included. For EVE the sub retention rate has just gone from 7 to 12 months. That is a huge difference. So while EVE may have lower subscriber numbers overall, it's subscribers stay for a long time. For WoW to have sold as many units as it has and to only have 6 million active subs means their turnover has to be astronomical. As soon as their new subs start coming in slower than people leave, their numbers will drop like a rock. This will likely start happening when some of the new MMO's start to be released (AoC, etc.)

    As for EVE, when the China server opens it's population will essentially double, surpassing SWG and possibly EQ2 in a short time. I believe it opens in July.


    Where are you getting the average retention numbers from?  Let's try to stick to facts.  Also can you look in the same crystal ball that told you Eve will surpass SWG & EQ2 and see what WOW's subs will be when they release their expansion pack? LOL



    Where are you getting the average retention numbers from?  Let's try to stick to facts.  Also can you look in the same crystal ball that told you Eve will surpass SWG & EQ2 and see what WOW's subs will be when they release their expansion pack? LOL
  • baffbaff Member Posts: 9,457

    NPD suggests a third of PC game revenue was garnered online in 2005.

    "The survey, using 60,000 respondents, revealed that that PC games had $1.4 billion in revenue in North America in 2005, with online subscriptions to PC games and gaming web sites $344 million of that total."


    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=9455

  • MinscMinsc Member UncommonPosts: 1,345


    Originally posted by Pride7

    Originally posted by lomiller

    Originally posted by Pride7

    To the point of this thread:  The best rated MMO as of May 2006, Eve has 121,156 subscribers.  I think that should show that ratings on this site aren't necessarily in touch with that of the entire gaming population.

    What makes you think anyone here cares about some hypothetical “overall gaming population”?  I don’t live in Asia or have Asian sensibilities about what makes a game enjoyable, I don’t come from a battlenet background, I don’t come from a Diablo background.  Why would I care what games appeal to subscribers who have a history of likening styles of play that I have disliked? 


    Even if quality were more important then marketing and riding out a fad in determining subscriber numbers these numbers would mean nothing to the readership at this site because most of these subscribers have very different sensibilities then the readership of a site like this one.  


    Oh and for the record, the subscriber trend in EVE is exactly what you would expect from a small company breaking into an existing market with a high quality product targeted at a specific niche of that market.  With no big brand name to draw customers you get a slow but steady influx of subscribers due to word of mouth and then combine this with great retention of existing customers.  So, overall sales trend do support the notion that EVE is in fact a very high quality game.



    I have absolutely no idea what your point is.  If it is "who cares what the 6.5M people playing WOW think, I think Eve is a better game and so do the majority of the people on this site" I would say you are entitled to your opinion and this site is definately a fan favorite for Eve players.  My point is/was this site is a representation of a small sample of MMO players, but the entire US gaming community is a lot bigger than the 400k members of this site and WOW has proven to be the fan favorite for the majority of the US gaming population.  That doesn't make it a better game than Eve or Eve a better game than it, what it does is make it a more profitable game.

    99% of EVE players couldn't give 2 sh*ts about this site. There's maybe a total of 30 people who post regularily on the EVE boards here. Oh, and for the record my EVE rating worked out to 8.3 and I haven't even rated WoW.
  • baffbaff Member Posts: 9,457

    What makes you think anyone here cares about some hypothetical “overall gaming population”? 

    I do.

    I'm not intrested in any monocultural games. I find the whole "anti-foreigner" thing a big turn off.

  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289


    Originally posted by Minsc
    99% of EVE players couldn't give 2 sh*ts about this site. There's maybe a total of 30 people who post regularily on the EVE boards here. Oh, and for the record my EVE rating worked out to 8.3 and I haven't even rated WoW.


    Ironically 99% of the total Eve players = 1% of the total WOW players.  I am obviously kidding, it equals 2% :)
  • SpathotanSpathotan Member Posts: 3,928


    Originally posted by Pride7

    Originally posted by Minsc
    99% of EVE players couldn't give 2 sh*ts about this site. There's maybe a total of 30 people who post regularily on the EVE boards here. Oh, and for the record my EVE rating worked out to 8.3 and I haven't even rated WoW.

    Ironically 99% of the total Eve players = 1% of the total WOW players.  I am obviously kidding, it equals 2% :)


    Lol.

    "There's no star system Slave I can't reach, and there's no planet I can't find. There's nowhere in the Galaxy for you to run. Might as well give up now."
    — Boba Fett

  • lomillerlomiller Member Posts: 1,810


    Originally posted by baff

    The PC game sales market for North America in 2005 was about 1.4 billion USD
    The P.C. game sales market in the U.K. in 2005 about 1.2 billion USD
    The P.C. game sales market in Continental Europe was about 1 billion USD.
    Figures courtesy of ELSPA/ESA.
    $950 million in a $100 billion industry is small potatoes in my opinion. 
    A few more useless statistics.
    Total video games sales (All platforms) in the U.S.A. for 2005 were 13.4 Billion USD.
    PC games make up about 1/10th of all video games sales in North America.
    PC games make up about 1/5th of all video games sales in the U.K.
    PC games make up about 1/3 of all video games sales in the E.U.


    Thanks, I seem to have mis-recalled the stated market size of the video game industry from some reports last year when it surpassed the movie industry in dollar value.  It seems it’s more like 30 billion worldwide and growing at over 10% but for some reason I thought the numbers last year were in the $80 billion range and I factored in some growth.

    Regardless my original point is still valid, PC games sales through traditional retail channels are not strong and there is an increasing focus on consoles.  Since such sales seem to be a shrinking part of the PC game market, and may not be characteristic of the PC game market as a whole we shouldn’t be trying to use them to evaluate popularity.  

  • MinscMinsc Member UncommonPosts: 1,345


    Originally posted by Pride7

    Originally posted by Minsc
    99% of EVE players couldn't give 2 sh*ts about this site. There's maybe a total of 30 people who post regularily on the EVE boards here. Oh, and for the record my EVE rating worked out to 8.3 and I haven't even rated WoW.

    Ironically 99% of the total Eve players = 1% of the total WOW players.  I am obviously kidding, it equals 2% :)


    There are far more Sheep than Shepards
  • MinscMinsc Member UncommonPosts: 1,345


    Originally posted by Pride7




    Originally posted by Minsc

    You also have to look at retention rates and churn, the average subscriber retention rates in most MMO's is 2 months or less, WoW included. For EVE the sub retention rate has just gone from 7 to 12 months. That is a huge difference. So while EVE may have lower subscriber numbers overall, it's subscribers stay for a long time. For WoW to have sold as many units as it has and to only have 6 million active subs means their turnover has to be astronomical. As soon as their new subs start coming in slower than people leave, their numbers will drop like a rock. This will likely start happening when some of the new MMO's start to be released (AoC, etc.)

    As for EVE, when the China server opens it's population will essentially double, surpassing SWG and possibly EQ2 in a short time. I believe it opens in July.


    Where are you getting the average retention numbers from?  Let's try to stick to facts.  Also can you look in the same crystal ball that told you Eve will surpass SWG & EQ2 and see what WOW's subs will be when they release their expansion pack? LOL




    Where are you getting the average retention numbers from?  Let's try to stick to facts.  Also can you look in the same crystal ball that told you Eve will surpass SWG & EQ2 and see what WOW's subs will be when they release their expansion pack? LOL


    The 7 and 12 month sub retention numbers were from Oveur, Lead Producer of EVE-Online, the 2-month average was, I thought, a fairly well known piece of data, I'll try and google for some sources.
  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289


    Originally posted by lomiller

    (On a side note I can’t really see evidence in Vivendi’s annual report of this much income so there is probably some discrepancy in the way the number of subscriptions are tracked.  One possible explanation for this would be a very large Asian market where subscriptions tend to be handled slightly differently.)

    I just took a look at Vivendi's annual report and here is what I found...

    2005 Revenues = 641 Million Euros ($1.28 = 1 Euro, so this would mean $820M)
    49% of this number is from online games or 300 Million (41M was from operating income)
    Geographical breakdown for their revenue is 53% North America, 33% Europe, 14% Asia (Rest of World) - Remember this is from 2005 their 2006 breakdown will probably show a bigger % from Asia.

    EDIT: This data can be found on page 143 of their annual report.

    If North America is paying $15 a month and there are 2 million subs in NA that would equal $30M.  Not sure what they pay elsewhere although I did hear they pay by the hour in China.  Regardless it looks like Vivendi got 300 Million Euros from WOW last year which is pretty impressive!

  • lomillerlomiller Member Posts: 1,810


    Originally posted by Pride7

    Originally posted by lomiller

    (On a side note I can’t really see evidence in Vivendi’s annual report of this much income so there is probably some discrepancy in the way the number of subscriptions are tracked.  One possible explanation for this would be a very large Asian market where subscriptions tend to be handled slightly differently.)

    I just took a look at Vivendi's annual report and here is what I found...

    2005 Revenues = 641 Million Euros ($1.28 = 1 Euro, so this would mean $820M)
    49% of this number is from online games or 300 Million (41M was from operating income)
    Geographical breakdown for their revenue is 53% North America, 33% Europe, 14% Asia (Rest of World) - Remember this is from 2005 their 2006 breakdown will probably show a bigger % from Asia.

    EDIT: This data can be found on page 143 of their annual report.

    If North America is paying $15 a month and there are 2 million subs in NA that would equal $30M.  Not sure what they pay elsewhere although I did hear they pay by the hour in China.  Regardless it looks like Vivendi got 300 Million Euros from WOW last year which is pretty impressive!


    That was only their games division, Vivendi is a much larger company then that.  Yahoo finance has them making $4 billion on $25 billion of revenue company wide.

    The NA revenue is interesting because it seems to line up nicely with the ~1.2 million North American subscribers (Don’t forget they make money off each box sold as well) the game is said to have, which is still an amazing accomplishment.  1.2+ million people paying $15 each month to play which is still probably greater the all other MMO’s combined in North America.  

    It highlights the significant differences in the Asian and North American markets.  There are nearly 4X the subscribers in Asia as in NA but they only bring in 1/4 of the revenue.  It also highlights one of the other reasons to take WoW numbers with a grain of salt.  There are probably more people playing WoW in North America then there were playing all MMO’s combined prior to its release. 

    This is a massive increase in the number of players, but they came for the Warcraft name, and we have no idea how that will translate into the MMO market as a whole.  I suspect a lot of these people will not play another MMO once they are bored with WoW.  This makes WoW a poor data point when discussing long term MMO trends in North America and probably Europe.

  • XpheyelXpheyel Member Posts: 704

    I don't know if anyone else has pointed this out, but the statistics on what is in effect a web poll are never actually valid in that sample isn't random. Everyone is bound by the common thread that they are members of the website. As such, the rankings only reflect that more MMORPG.com members like one game over another.

    Its anecdotal but I think there is some subset of this site that hates WoW with every fiber of their being. Which is why there is one WoW thread after another with a depressing, endless monotony of dislike.

    image

  • RollinDutchRollinDutch Member Posts: 550
    I'm honestly not sure what kind of person really cares about which MMOG is ranked highest on MMORPG.com. It seems like a very pointless thing to fanboi about.

    I also dont really get why people are using subscriber numbers to judge quality. Runescape has a huge player base and its one of the worst 'games' ever made. NASCAR has millions of fans, and its a retarded quasi-'sport'. Another left turn Cleetus, WOW!

    As for the EVE fanbois, grow up and get over it. Someone not liking the same game as you doesnt mean you have to act like a crazed Jehova's Witness and try to convert them. (This applies to all MMOG fanbois, but the EVE ones are the worst in this thread)

    We get it. You like some game. Good for you. STFU and go play it.


  • porgieporgie Member Posts: 1,516
    I think it's sinking on the MMORPG charts is just an indicator of people's frustrations with the game.  It had a good go.  But it's just a boring game after a while.

    Look how long EVE and DAoC have stayed on the top.  Those are just good games with a fun "ending".  That's what it takes to keep a game up there on the rankings. 

    Doesn't matter how many people are playing as long as the people playing it are happy. 


    -----------------------
    </OBAMA>

  • baffbaff Member Posts: 9,457


    Originally posted by lomiller

    Thanks, I seem to have mis-recalled the stated market size of the video game industry from some reports last year when it surpassed the movie industry in dollar value.  It seems it’s more like 30 billion worldwide and growing at over 10% but for some reason I thought the numbers last year were in the $80 billion range and I factored in some growth.

    Regardless my original point is still valid, PC games sales through traditional retail channels are not strong and there is an increasing focus on consoles.  Since such sales seem to be a shrinking part of the PC game market, and may not be characteristic of the PC game market as a whole we shouldn’t be trying to use them to evaluate popularity.  


    PC game sales are stronger than ever. The market continues to grow.


    Each geographical area has it's own dynamic for video games.

    North America sells most on Playstation 2.

    Japan sells most on Nintendo DS

    The U.K.'s primary sales are also PS2

    Continental Europe prefers the PC.

    (Korea anyone?)

    .

    The rest of the world buys mostly PC games.

    Console game sales last year were down worldwide due to next gen uncertainty, (do I buy this game now, or wait until I get my PS3?). The video game market showed a 1% growth in the U.K. overall (all platforms) but a -7% growth in N.America. A similar effect was seen last time consoles upgraded also. This year is a good year to be in PC games.

  • BrianshoBriansho Member UncommonPosts: 3,586
    Doesnt look like its on the front page anymore...

    Don't be terrorized! You're more likely to die of a car accident, drowning, fire, or murder! More people die every year from prescription drugs than terrorism LOL!

  • CrazyDiamondCrazyDiamond Member Posts: 9
    I played WOW for a few months and it's a fun game with good graphics. More than what I can say about other MMO's. However, that's all it is, it's a DECENT game. It's just another MMO where you see a bunch of people in the main city standing around doing nothing... On top of that, the click to attack gameplay is repetitive, and the quests also get boring after awhile. 
  • lomillerlomiller Member Posts: 1,810



    Originally posted by baff

    PC game sales are stronger than ever. The market continues to grow.





    Reread my posts with attention to the phrase “traditional retail channels”.
  • zethcarnzethcarn Member UncommonPosts: 1,558

    i gave it a 2.8/10  glad i could be of service

  • Pride7Pride7 Member Posts: 289


    Originally posted by Briansho
    Doesnt look like its on the front page anymore...

    Which sadly shows how out of touch the members of this site are with the majority of MMO players.  Guild Wars is considered by many not to be an MMORPG and COH/COV are the perfect examples of MMOs with no depth.  Oh well I am sure Blizzard would rather be #1 in marketshare than #1 on MMORGP.COM
Sign In or Register to comment.