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Proshop releases RTX 3080, 3090 and 3070 supply numbers

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Comments

  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,299
    Rungar said:
    With over 50 cryptocurrencies available i can see this blowing up in alot of peoples faces. Should be pretty cheap to get a used video card then. 
    We will see. I will giggle like a schoolgirl.

    But with Coinbase going public... our saving grace seems to be stuck on Eth moving to Proof of Stake.
    Torval
  • RungarRungar Member RarePosts: 838
    edited April 2021
    crypt oh = eight--eee 2 hun dread= the city. 

    you get a free belt if you take the road but you must  be bunting, always.

    if you can figure that out , youll be like me :)
    .17 of a second to midnight
  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 21,719
    More bad news. TSMC sees chip shortages lasting at least into 2022. TSMC said, "....it is doing all it can to increase productivity and alleviate a worldwide chip shortage, but that tight supplies will likely continue into next year."


    While TSMC says they're committed to expanding production, to the tune of $100Bn over the next 3 years, they don't really have any incentive for moving faster.

    Their stock price is up by 16%, in part largely due to a 19% revenue bump that exceeds expectations. While expansion would allow them to rake in even more revenue, it carries risk. With a saturated market where they're the dominant player, they can move slowly with little worry, at least for now.

    According to the Reuters article, TSMC has a market valuation of $558Bn, more than that of Samsung and double that of Intel.

    Intel is supplying the only domestic US pressure on TSMC with $20Bn plan to expand foundry production; which is to say, not much.

    That all said coupled with the ever climbing crypto craze, I don't expect to see 30xx series supply hit good numbers ever. What I somewhat expect is that Vrika will end up posting a similar thread for the 30xx refresh or 40xx series when it debuts. I'd like to be wrong.
    Ridelynn
    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 14,452
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,353
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    If it’s by force....   war

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 23,898
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    Slapshot1188
  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,173
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    Add to that China's electronic production dropping out as rest of the world would embargo China.

    And only an embargo would be best case situation. If China attacked there's a chance the war could spread out.
     
  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 14,452
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    I agree.  So given what just happened with supply chains due to the virus, do you think there is a realistic chance that other fabrication sites open up outside of Asia?   Obviously not a solution to today’s issue but won’t companies want to diversify their sourcing for the future?  And with the shortages of today isn’t it kind of the best time to do it? 

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 23,898
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    I agree.  So given what just happened with supply chains due to the virus, do you think there is a realistic chance that other fabrication sites open up outside of Asia?   Obviously not a solution to today’s issue but won’t companies want to diversify their sourcing for the future?  And with the shortages of today isn’t it kind of the best time to do it? 
    The problem is that it's hard to create a cutting-edge process node.  Really hard.  That's why Intel has had so much trouble with their 10 nm node.  And why Samsung had so much trouble with 7 nm.  And TSMC had so much trouble with 10 nm.  And Global Foundries had so much trouble with 14 nm that they gave up and licensed Samsung's process instead.  And both Samsung and TSMC had so much trouble with 20 nm.

    It's why, in spite of the government of China throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at it over the course of decades, all of the foundries in China are still several years behind their foreign competitors.  It doesn't just take money, but also takes employee expertise and experience, as well as some amount of luck for the choices you make years ahead of time to actually work.

    For a given foundry to clone an existing process node at another fab site is a lot more doable.  But by the time that other fab is ready, the process node is likely to be mostly obsolete in the sense that demand for it is diminishing.  TSMC's 16 nm and 28 nm process nodes were good nodes and still work, but as a fraction of TSMC's revenue, they're less than half today of what they were at their peak.  Gamers today don't want to buy a brand new GeForce GTX 680 (even with the GPU shortage!), so Nvidia stopped building them.

    Both Samsung and TSMC are building fabs in the United States.  I think TSMC's 5 nm fab in Arizona is due to open in 2024, though I might be off by a year.  By the time it opens, the leading edge production will surely have moved on to a newer node.  Apple was already selling parts built in that node last year.

    While I don't know this for certain, I'd be shocked if the fabs that TSMC and Samsung are building in the US aren't heavily subsidized by the US government, as it wouldn't make financial sense to build them otherwise.  The US government is very paranoid about their computer chips being tampered with, especially for military parts.  (Actually, a lot of governments are paranoid about that, and for good reason.)  IBM and AMD have both gotten rid of their fabs in recent years, and Intel might end up doing the same.  And if China conquers Taiwan (or South Korea), the US government really, really doesn't want to rely on China to fabricate computer chips for future US military hardware.

    For what it's worth, that's not a problem for NAND or DRAM, which are the other things that require insanely expensive fabs.  Those are both made by Micron in the United States, and NAND is also made by Western Digital, albeit at a fab in Japan.
    Slapshot1188
  • CleffyCleffy Member RarePosts: 6,373
    I doubt China would attempt to conquer Taiwan. Right now it's mostly posturing. Hong Kong was already China's with an agreement on when it would be absorbed into China. It's a different story with Taiwan. An invasion of Taiwan by the Communist Chinese Party would begin a war with the US.
    China and the US can't survive a war with each other right now without unrest usurping those in political power. I think the leadership in China is well aware of this.
  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,353
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    In a state of war I would imagine those plants would be one of the highest value targets just like a ball bearing factory. Take out the ball bearing factories and you can't manufacture anything like planes, tanks, drones etc. etc.

    Modern weapons are pretty useless without a chip.
    Slapshot1188Torval

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 23,898
    laserit said:
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    In a state of war I would imagine those plants would be one of the highest value targets just like a ball bearing factory. Take out the ball bearing factories and you can't manufacture anything like planes, tanks, drones etc. etc.

    Modern weapons are pretty useless without a chip.
    You could argue that TSMC's fabs are the single most important strategic resource in the world.  It's not just that they're the best at producing logic chips at the moment.  They also have the highest volume, with about half of the worldwide revenue for it.  UMC is also one of the largest foundries in the world for logic chips, and they're also in Taiwan, though they're no longer at the bleeding edge.

    A ball bearing factory might have some short term value in a war.  But a country can have a lot of ball bearing factories scattered all over the place, and it's not that hard to build more factories quickly if you need to.

    With foundries, you can't build a new one that actually works without an enormous amount of expertise, no matter how much money you throw at it.  Very few companies in the world have the expertise to do it, and it costs billions of dollars and several years to build a new one even if you have all of that expertise.

    So no one wants to see China get a hold of TSMC intact.  Well, except for China itself.

    Of course, TSMC is hardly the only choke point in the production chain.  If war were to break out in the Netherlands and ASML got blown up, then it wouldn't be possible for anyone in the world to buy new EUV lithography machines, and that would mean no new capacity on any of the new nodes that foundries want to move to (TSMC 5 nm, Samsung 5 nm, Intel 7 nm, etc.), anywhere in the world, until someone figured out how to replace what ASML built.
  • RungarRungar Member RarePosts: 838
    China does what its told. It has masters and they already own the foundries so they are no more going to destroy it than they would destroy their own critical assets in ww2. Unless it was an excuse to rebuild it somewhere else or some other strategic value. 

    China was built with purpose unless you can somehow figure out how all this was done in China in what 60 years? An impossible task without vast international support. 

    The Chinese didnt move the manufacturing base from the west to China..they received it. 

    business theatre 


    .17 of a second to midnight
  • RungarRungar Member RarePosts: 838
    and just a fyi, Turkey is declaring war on cryptocurrencies so well see if the dominoes fall the summer. You might get your cards afterall. 
    .17 of a second to midnight
  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,353
    Quizzical said:
    laserit said:
    Quizzical said:
    What happens when China pushes into Taiwan?

    TSMC's fabs get blown up and even after the cryptocurrency craze ends, we'll have a much more severe chip shortage than we do today.  It would take several years for Samsung and Intel to build enough fab capacity to bring things back to normal, and a lot of chips would have to be redesigned to work at a different fab.
    In a state of war I would imagine those plants would be one of the highest value targets just like a ball bearing factory. Take out the ball bearing factories and you can't manufacture anything like planes, tanks, drones etc. etc.

    Modern weapons are pretty useless without a chip.
    You could argue that TSMC's fabs are the single most important strategic resource in the world.  It's not just that they're the best at producing logic chips at the moment.  They also have the highest volume, with about half of the worldwide revenue for it.  UMC is also one of the largest foundries in the world for logic chips, and they're also in Taiwan, though they're no longer at the bleeding edge.

    A ball bearing factory might have some short term value in a war.  But a country can have a lot of ball bearing factories scattered all over the place, and it's not that hard to build more factories quickly if you need to.

    With foundries, you can't build a new one that actually works without an enormous amount of expertise, no matter how much money you throw at it.  Very few companies in the world have the expertise to do it, and it costs billions of dollars and several years to build a new one even if you have all of that expertise.

    So no one wants to see China get a hold of TSMC intact.  Well, except for China itself.

    Of course, TSMC is hardly the only choke point in the production chain.  If war were to break out in the Netherlands and ASML got blown up, then it wouldn't be possible for anyone in the world to buy new EUV lithography machines, and that would mean no new capacity on any of the new nodes that foundries want to move to (TSMC 5 nm, Samsung 5 nm, Intel 7 nm, etc.), anywhere in the world, until someone figured out how to replace what ASML built.
    Same thing to mass produce a ball bearing, it also requires a foundry. It takes about 2 days of processing (lapping) to manufacture a single ball, .  It takes years to put a plant together. It may not be cutting edge anymore but it is no simple task. One of the most interesting movies I ever saw was "Balls of Fire" a 1970's movie of a ball bearing plant back in my trade school days. It was one of the only movies in trade school that wasn't made in the 1940's ;)

    Without chips your fighting a war like they did in the first 70 years of the 20th century. Without mass produced ball bearings your back into the 19th century.

    Interestingly I have a couple machines with motors that spin a 10kg turbine to over 80,000 rpm. Instead of using ceramic bearings as they did in the recent past (metal bearings cant take it) they now use a zero contact magnetic field instead of bearings. I also have a machine where its x,y and z axis float on a magnetic field. From a dead stop it can accelerate to 3800 inches per minute, decelerate and stop dead and be within 0.0015" accuracy, and all within a couple feet. The average hair on your head measures around 0.004"
     


    TorvalAsm0deus

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Member EpicPosts: 5,345
    Rungar said:
    and just a fyi, Turkey is declaring war on cryptocurrencies so well see if the dominoes fall the summer. You might get your cards afterall. 
    So how does such a war work?  They can't tell when people are mining them.
  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Member EpicPosts: 5,345
    edited April 2021
    I was just hoping to get a 1650 or 1660 pro, or AMD equivalent, or whatever they are called.  I'll be fine moving up to just 1440 for the next few years.
    Torval
  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,173
    Rungar said:
    and just a fyi, Turkey is declaring war on cryptocurrencies so well see if the dominoes fall the summer. You might get your cards afterall. 
    So how does such a war work?  They can't tell when people are mining them.
    They just banned their use in purchase of goods and services.

    Countries don't need to be able to track or ban miners. It's much simpler to ban exchange of the currency, at which point only criminals would use it. Though Turkey's ban doesn't extend that far, they still allow you to use cryptocurrency as investment, as long as you don't use it as an actual currency to buy or sell stuff.
    RidelynnTorval
     
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 23,898
    Rungar said:
    and just a fyi, Turkey is declaring war on cryptocurrencies so well see if the dominoes fall the summer. You might get your cards afterall. 
    So how does such a war work?  They can't tell when people are mining them.
    They may not be able to tell if you've got just one GPU mining, but your electric utility can very much tell when you've got power consumption in the tens of kilowatts all day and all night.
  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 21,719
    This thread on HN discusses the more widespread and pervasive issue of chip shortages. It isn't just cutting edge nodes that are affected and it isn't just blockchain miners causing the issue. They are a huge factor, but not the only one.


    The comments in the thread with anecdotes from people in various industries highlights the problems in hardware production right now. There aren't any quick solutions to the issue, but the heavy reliance on TSMC is a key point in my opinion.

    The original BBC article topic is Jaguar / LandRover suspending production of certain models due to due the chip shortage. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56841946


    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • RungarRungar Member RarePosts: 838
    edited April 2021
    Rungar said:
    and just a fyi, Turkey is declaring war on cryptocurrencies so well see if the dominoes fall the summer. You might get your cards afterall. 
    So how does such a war work?  They can't tell when people are mining them.
    They ban or regulate it and then get other governments to do the same. Dominoes. The insider gangsters have their money by then and your left holding the bag. 

    In this case I imagine this whole crypto thing will blow up after some "cyberpandemic" and the synthesis will be a world/government backed digital currency.  
    .17 of a second to midnight
  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,173
    edited April 2021
    Torval said:
    This thread on HN discusses the more widespread and pervasive issue of chip shortages. It isn't just cutting edge nodes that are affected and it isn't just blockchain miners causing the issue. They are a huge factor, but not the only one.


    The comments in the thread with anecdotes from people in various industries highlights the problems in hardware production right now. There aren't any quick solutions to the issue, but the heavy reliance on TSMC is a key point in my opinion.

    The original BBC article topic is Jaguar / LandRover suspending production of certain models due to due the chip shortage. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56841946
    The car industry is hit extra hard because at the start of pandemic car sales tanked and they immediately decreased their chip orders to match. When the electronic shortage started to hit all that freed capacity was sold to others, and a bit later the car manufacturers were caught in a situation where car sales rebounded but they couldn't rebuy their usual chip capacity because the suppliers had moved on to work for others.

    Then some time ago a fire hit Renesas' factory that was making a lot of chips especially for cars. It was a catastrophe for car manufacturers who were already struggling to buy enough chips. Now just about all car makers have to decrease their production because they can't get enough chips.
    TorvalAsm0deus
     
  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 21,719
    We have essentially hit a perfect storm of unfavorable conditions across multiple industries and applications driven hard by the crypto mining bubble. There doesn't seem to be a reliable end in sight for well over a year outside of external forces taking action.

    What do you see changing this? Governments cracking down on power consumption and the introduction of taxes could pop the crypto bubble down to normalcy, but I'm not sure that alone will alleviate the issue.
    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • Slapshot1188Slapshot1188 Member LegendaryPosts: 14,452
    Torval said:
    We have essentially hit a perfect storm of unfavorable conditions across multiple industries and applications driven hard by the crypto mining bubble. There doesn't seem to be a reliable end in sight for well over a year outside of external forces taking action.

    What do you see changing this? Governments cracking down on power consumption and the introduction of taxes could pop the crypto bubble down to normalcy, but I'm not sure that alone will alleviate the issue.
    I think certain governments are actually driving the Crypto bubble.

    Rungar

    All time classic  MY NEW FAVORITE POST!  (Keep laying those bricks)

    "I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator

    Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017. 

    Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018

    "Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018

  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 21,719
    There could be some governments behind crypto. The US government isn't outright antagonistic to the idea. However, at some point I feel every entity that can levy taxes will take on crypto because there is money on the table. Even those who currently support it might change stances if they feel their fiat currency stability or power threatened. Also, Capitalists love a bubble until it gets scary or threatening.

    Those are a couple reasons I can see governments or trade groups cracking down on crypto.
    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


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