Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Who here is excited for Ryzen 7 3700x and navi rx 3080?

DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 21,188
Ryzen 7 3700x rumored to beat i9 9900k at much lower cost and navi rx 3800 rumored to have RTX 2070 performance at half the cost.

Too good to be true?

Either way - should be a very interesting year ahead
t0nydSiphaed

Comments

  • BobVaBobVa Member UncommonPosts: 125
    Not the first time I heard "..to beat" & "..at much lower cost" from rumors regarding AMD products...which never happened.



    acidbloodAmazingAverykadajvolaju
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 6,826
    I'm .... cautiously optimistic.

    When it comes to AMD and rumors, the rumors tend to get slow blown out of proportion that when the actual product comes, everyone is all let down. Even though it's usually really close to what AMD told us to expect in the first place.

    Case in point:

    AMD won't release a card at half the cost of the competition. That doesn't make business sense. They will come in just under cost if they can... see what nVidia does to adjust, if anything, and if we are lucky it sparks a price war. If we aren't, AMD will happily stay at some level just under nVidia where they feel they are moving enough units - but they won't come in as low as they possibly could.
    Ozmodan
  • acidbloodacidblood Member RarePosts: 851

    As nice as it would be to have a 'next generation' of hardware that provides a noticeable improvement and doesn't cost $1000+, when it comes to AMD rumours history would suggest they are taken with a large dose of salt.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    BobVa said:
    Not the first time I heard "..to beat" & "..at much lower cost" from rumors regarding AMD products...which never happened.

    Go have a look at the Radeon HD 5000 series that launched in late 2009.  AMD beat Nvidia so badly on efficiency that AMD's Radeon HD 5850 for $260 beat Nvidia's top of the line, then the GeForce GTX 285.  AMD priced them so aggressively that Nvidia discontinued everything in their lineup above the GeForce GTS 250 that only cost $100.  For several months, if you wanted a video card worth more than $100, the only Nvidia options were some stupidly overpriced things that were discontinued and hadn't yet sold out from some retailers because they were so overpriced.
    Gdemami
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    I'm skeptical that the 8-core Zen 2 CPU will beat a Core i9-9900K at single-threaded performance very often.  I'm expecting it to narrow the gap considerably as compared to what a Ryzen 7 2700X can do, but that's it.

    It will beat anything Intel has to offer at performance within a particular power envelope, and usually by a lot, just because it will be about as good of an architecture, and on 7 nm rather than 14 nm.  That doesn't matter very much in a mainstream desktop, though.  I do expect it to make terrific parts for the server and HEDT markets.  Servers need to be the primary focus for AMD, as there's massively more money to be made there than in the desktop or GPU markets.
    Ozmodan
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    Ridelynn said:
    I'm .... cautiously optimistic.

    When it comes to AMD and rumors, the rumors tend to get slow blown out of proportion that when the actual product comes, everyone is all let down. Even though it's usually really close to what AMD told us to expect in the first place.

    Case in point:

    AMD won't release a card at half the cost of the competition. That doesn't make business sense. They will come in just under cost if they can... see what nVidia does to adjust, if anything, and if we are lucky it sparks a price war. If we aren't, AMD will happily stay at some level just under nVidia where they feel they are moving enough units - but they won't come in as low as they possibly could.
    Let's go back in time to mid-2008.  AMD had essentially vacated the high end for quite some time.  Nvidia had responded by using the opportunity to sell bloated dies on older process nodes at sky-high prices.  AMD's last effort at making a big die had been hot, late, and slow.  Sound familiar?

    AMD responded in 2008 with a much smaller die, only about 40% of the size of Nvidia's then top of the line.  But the Radeon HD 4870 based on AMD's new RV770 die was able to roughly match the $450 GeForce GTX 260 in performance.  So how did AMD price that?  $300--which cratered prices and forced Nvidia to match almost overnight.

    The stage is now set up about how it was in 2008.  Nvidia has had the top end to themselves, and AMD hasn't seriously attempted to challenge that dominance since the Fury X arrived in 2015.  Nvidia has used that time to make ever larger dies and charge monopolistic prices because they had the high end all to themselves.  Nvidia hasn't been quick to move to new process nodes; rumors say that they won't have anything on 7 nm until 2020.

    The big thing that could prevent a repeat of 2008 is that RV770 was a terrific chip.  You could make a case that it was the most important GPU chip to advance the industry in the last 15 years.  That's a lot to expect of a new architecture of unknown merit.  But if the first Navi part is a terrific GPU, a repeat of 2008 in its salient details is absolutely possible.

    It all depends on how good the Navi architecture is.  If AMD can match a GTX 1080 performance with a 150 mm^2 die that only uses 100 W at load, I can't see them charging over $300 for that.  Lest you scoff at the possibility of that, a die shrink of the GP104 die of the GTX 1080 to 7 nm would probably come in right around there.

    People are probably sick of my constantly saying that the cost of production matters, but it's true.  If AMD can get high performance out of a small die, then they can really ramp up the performance with larger dies of the same architecture.  If AMD knows that they've got a larger die with double the performance coming six months later, then $300 for the initial Navi card is very plausible, even if it does match a GTX 1080 or RTX 2070 in performance.

    But that's only if Navi is a good architecture.  If it's yet another rehash of GCN, that's not going to happen.  Recall that Maxwell launched five years ago, which should be plenty of time for AMD to have figured out what made it so good and copied it by now.  (Past tense, as one certainly hopes that at least one Navi chip has taped out by now.)

    Polaris and Vega are still heavily derivative of the GCN architecture that AMD launched more than 7 years ago.  The day that GCN launched, Nvidia's latest was still Fermi, though Kepler was coming soon.  In that time, Nvidia has had not one, not two, but three major architectural overhauls:  Kepler, Maxwell/Pascal, and Volta/Turing.  GCN was ahead of its time in a sense, but it's really showing its age by now.  That's why there's the potential for AMD's next architecture to be massively better than their previous.
    Gdemami
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 6,826
    Quizzical said:
    BobVa said:
    Not the first time I heard "..to beat" & "..at much lower cost" from rumors regarding AMD products...which never happened.

    Go have a look at the Radeon HD 5000 series that launched in late 2009.  AMD beat Nvidia so badly on efficiency that AMD's Radeon HD 5850 for $260 beat Nvidia's top of the line, then the GeForce GTX 285.  AMD priced them so aggressively that Nvidia discontinued everything in their lineup above the GeForce GTS 250 that only cost $100.  For several months, if you wanted a video card worth more than $100, the only Nvidia options were some stupidly overpriced things that were discontinued and hadn't yet sold out from some retailers because they were so overpriced.
    That didn't stop people from buying those overpriced nVIdia cards... unfortunately. And what came out after the 200 series wasn't really a whole lot better. And people bought those too.

    Usually the rationale was something along the lines of "AMD Drivers suck". Which was true at one point, but wasn't true at that particular point in time, and hasn't been true in a good long while.
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 6,826
    Quizzical said:

    It all depends on how good the Navi architecture is.  If AMD can match a GTX 1080 performance with a 150 mm^2 die that only uses 100 W at load, I can't see them charging over $300 for that.  Lest you scoff at the possibility of that, a die shrink of the GP104 die of the GTX 1080 to 7 nm would probably come in right around there.

    People are probably sick of my constantly saying that the cost of production matters, but it's true.  If AMD can get high performance out of a small die, then they can really ramp up the performance with larger dies of the same architecture.  If AMD knows that they've got a larger die with double the performance coming six months later, then $300 for the initial Navi card is very plausible, even if it does match a GTX 1080 or RTX 2070 in performance.


    Oh I don't scoff at the technical specs - I think that's possible. Plausible even.

    And I agree, cost of production matters. I'm not arguing that it should be ignored.

    I'm just saying - profit margin also matters. And when you have an opportunity to protect or increase it, while preserving or increasing market share, you take it. Or your Board of Directors replaces you.

    I think Radeon 7 is a good recent indication. They didn't have to release that card. They only did so because nVidia gave them the opportunity to do so, at a decent margin. AMD ~could~ have re-engineered a die with different memory or other such, and brought down cost of production significantly. But that would have incurred R&D costs. 


  • DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 21,188
    Quizzical said:
    I'm skeptical that the 8-core Zen 2 CPU will beat a Core i9-9900K at single-threaded performance very often.  I'm expecting it to narrow the gap considerably as compared to what a Ryzen 7 2700X can do, but that's it.

    It will beat anything Intel has to offer at performance within a particular power envelope, and usually by a lot, just because it will be about as good of an architecture, and on 7 nm rather than 14 nm.  That doesn't matter very much in a mainstream desktop, though.  I do expect it to make terrific parts for the server and HEDT markets.  Servers need to be the primary focus for AMD, as there's massively more money to be made there than in the desktop or GPU markets.

    Well lets say it comes *close* like within 10% - but at a much lower cost - IMO that would be a huge win for AMD.

    I know I would certainly buy it.
    Ozmodan
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    Personally, I've got a Ryzen 7 2700X already, so I'm not going to upgrade to Zen 2 regardless of what it is.  I may upgrade to Zen 3, which will be the last upgrade on this socket, and should be better than Zen 2.  But that's still quite a ways off.
  • DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 21,188
  • DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 21,188
    Quizzical said:
    Personally, I've got a Ryzen 7 2700X already, so I'm not going to upgrade to Zen 2 regardless of what it is.  I may upgrade to Zen 3, which will be the last upgrade on this socket, and should be better than Zen 2.  But that's still quite a ways off.


    While AMD said AM4 will be supported till 2020 - I have a feeling that Zen3 might be delayed till next socket
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    DMKano said:
    Quizzical said:
    Personally, I've got a Ryzen 7 2700X already, so I'm not going to upgrade to Zen 2 regardless of what it is.  I may upgrade to Zen 3, which will be the last upgrade on this socket, and should be better than Zen 2.  But that's still quite a ways off.


    While AMD said AM4 will be supported till 2020 - I have a feeling that Zen3 might be delayed till next socket
    Really, it's going to be supported until AMD moves to DDR5 memory.  And possibly beyond that, as if the Ryzen parts for Zen 3 have an I/O die like those for Zen 2, then AMD could make both DDR4 and DDR5 versions of the chips.  Remember that they had both DDR2 and DDR3 versions of the Phenom II.

    I thought that AMD explicitly said that Zen 3 would be supported on Socket AM4.  Now that you mention it, it's possible that they said Socket AM4 would be supported until 2020, and Zen 3 would release in 2020, and I inferred that it meant Zen 3 on Socket AM4.  But a product being delayed isn't likely to change the socket it uses.
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    DMKano said:
    It's unlikely that AMD knows the exact month of the launch just yet unless it's much sooner than that.  Unless you're committed to a launch date and willing to do a paper launch if it's not ready, you don't really know when it's going to be ready until you see that everything is good and place the big production order.

    Even if AMD just got Navi parts back from the fabs and realized that they need one more respin, two months for a respin and check to see if it fixes the problems, then place the big production order would mean that they start getting massive numbers of chips back from the fabs by the end of May.  It shouldn't take five months between then and launch, especially with AMD having incentives to hurry because they're behind in the GPU market right now.

    I'm not saying that it won't launch in October.  I am saying that if the part is destined to launch in October, AMD wouldn't know that yet.  Even if it's planned for October, that would only be tentative plan of, unless more things go wrong than they expect.
    Gdemami
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 6,826
    wccftech cares more about clicks than accuracy
    QuizzicalTorvalVrikablueturtle13
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,297
    edited February 10
    As @Quizzical says "there's massively more money to be made there than in the desktop or GPU markets". And they should have time to go after the desktop market as well - could be late 2020 or 2021 before Intel have 7nm fab capacity built let alone operational.

    As for navi:

    Major companies do threat analysis assessments. For AMD they must have asked themselves something like: 

    "What might RTX on 7nm look like?" 

    We know that NVidia have signed up with Samsung so - at some point - they will have 7nm gpus. 

    Prioritising 7nm cpu production not only allows AMD to go after Intel but also gives the gpu design team time to answer RTX.

    So a new gpu card this year AMD (in passing) said - so maybe navi?

    I think though that AMD's focus will be on "something new" rather than an iteration. On making sure they have the answer to "7nm NVidia" and that they will have a product with e.g. ray tracing and whatever else they believe they need regarding features, price, performance etc. to - they will hope - "knock NVidia out of the ballpark". 

     

    Post edited by gervaise1 on
  • VutarVutar Member UncommonPosts: 916
    At this point I no longer trust anything AMD related. It is always hype that fails to deliver. Not to mention trying to get things like drivers and support for anything from AMD is awful.  I've always went with AMD stuff over Intel/Nvidia but my next build I won't be doing so. So tired of the problems. 
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 6,826
    Vutar said:
    At this point I no longer trust anything AMD related. It is always hype that fails to deliver. Not to mention trying to get things like drivers and support for anything from AMD is awful.  I've always went with AMD stuff over Intel/Nvidia but my next build I won't be doing so. So tired of the problems. 
    I will say, that apart from whatever came out of Raja Koduri's mouth, AMD is actually pretty good about delivering what they promise.

    Raja though, was poison, and lead to a lot of hyperbole that AMD could never live up to. There's also a lot of ... wishful thinking and projection ...  on the part of enthusiasts that occurs and doesn't help. I can't wait to see what Raja does with Intel....

    Just for instance - Radeon 7. AMD officially stated it should trade blows with a RTX2080, and they never mentioned anything about TDP or heat or noise or anything else. And it does exactly what AMD claims, for the most part. A lot of people were expecting it to be a 2080Ti killer, or blow the doors off the 2080... it certainly doesn't do either of those things. But a lot of people on the Internet thought it ~should~ do those things, and when it didn't, got let down.

    It's certainly nothing as egregious as Intel's claims... from Devil's Canyon famous "5Ghz on Air" to more recent demos with vapor phase cooling on the floor. Intel is certainly the worst at this, and seems to get a pass every time.

    I've found nVidia drivers to be the worst of the lot in most recent years. I can't run anything 400 series or higher on my computer without significant issues. nVidia has a handful of cases in the past couple of years of driver releases BSODing or bricking computers. Intel driver updates have been... glacial is one way to put it. But again, AMD always gets the perceived notion that their drivers are worse. They were awful, I admit, back when it was ATI... but that's been well over a decade now.

    I am not an AMD cheerleader by any stretch of the imagination - my current rig is Intel/nVidia. But I do like to see people at least get facts straight. 
    Quizzical
  • HashbrickHashbrick Member RarePosts: 1,851
    I for one am glad AMD is in the market to be my Jester, dance for me clown dance for me.  AMD DRIVERS ARE THE ABSOLUTE WORST THING ON THE PLANET!
    Ozmodan
    [[ DEAD ]] - Funny - I deleted my account on the site using the cancel account button.  Forum user is separate and still exists with no way of deleting it. Delete it admins. Do it, this ends now.
  • AvanahAvanah Member RarePosts: 1,500
    My 2700x I just built 6 months ago will last me for the next 5+ years. So I'll be looking maybe at the 9700X by then. ;)
    Ozmodan

    "My Fantasy is having two men at once...

    One Cooking and One Cleaning!"

    ---------------------------

    "A good man can make you feel sexy,

    strong and able to take on the whole world...

    oh sorry...that's wine...wine does that..."





  • SiphaedSiphaed Member RarePosts: 1,106
    DMKano said:
    Ryzen 7 3700x rumored to beat i9 9900k at much lower cost and navi rx 3800 rumored to have RTX 2070 performance at half the cost.

    Too good to be true?

    Either way - should be a very interesting year ahead

    The problem I see is that the RTX 2070 has Ray Tracing, where as there is none to be had with the Navi. Now sure, it might not be a big thing "now". But what about 2020, when the next Gen consoles come out? Most likely it will be a thing of that Gen. And when it's on console games, you can bet your pocketbook it'll be on PC games as well. So it's about future proofing your system with as little as a year out. No reason to spend $300-600+ on a GPU that is missing key gaming features next year.
    Ozmodan


  • DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 21,188
    Siphaed said:
    DMKano said:
    Ryzen 7 3700x rumored to beat i9 9900k at much lower cost and navi rx 3800 rumored to have RTX 2070 performance at half the cost.

    Too good to be true?

    Either way - should be a very interesting year ahead

    The problem I see is that the RTX 2070 has Ray Tracing, where as there is none to be had with the Navi. Now sure, it might not be a big thing "now". But what about 2020, when the next Gen consoles come out? Most likely it will be a thing of that Gen. And when it's on console games, you can bet your pocketbook it'll be on PC games as well. So it's about future proofing your system with as little as a year out. No reason to spend $300-600+ on a GPU that is missing key gaming features next year.

    The thing is ray tracing performance is crap even in 2080ti - with ray tracing on the hit to frames and performance is huge.

    So let's say ray tracing becomes the norm in 5 years - none of the current hardware will be good enough to run it, so you will be upgrading you GPU anyway. 

    That's why navi.
    Ozmodan
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 20,989
    Siphaed said:
    DMKano said:
    Ryzen 7 3700x rumored to beat i9 9900k at much lower cost and navi rx 3800 rumored to have RTX 2070 performance at half the cost.

    Too good to be true?

    Either way - should be a very interesting year ahead

    The problem I see is that the RTX 2070 has Ray Tracing, where as there is none to be had with the Navi. Now sure, it might not be a big thing "now". But what about 2020, when the next Gen consoles come out? Most likely it will be a thing of that Gen. And when it's on console games, you can bet your pocketbook it'll be on PC games as well. So it's about future proofing your system with as little as a year out. No reason to spend $300-600+ on a GPU that is missing key gaming features next year.
    Since the next generation consoles are likely to be running a Navi GPU, it seems awfully unlikely that the consoles will have ray tracing but Navi won't.
  • OzmodanOzmodan Member EpicPosts: 9,500
    Siphaed said:
    DMKano said:
    Ryzen 7 3700x rumored to beat i9 9900k at much lower cost and navi rx 3800 rumored to have RTX 2070 performance at half the cost.

    Too good to be true?

    Either way - should be a very interesting year ahead

    The problem I see is that the RTX 2070 has Ray Tracing, where as there is none to be had with the Navi. Now sure, it might not be a big thing "now". But what about 2020, when the next Gen consoles come out? Most likely it will be a thing of that Gen. And when it's on console games, you can bet your pocketbook it'll be on PC games as well. So it's about future proofing your system with as little as a year out. No reason to spend $300-600+ on a GPU that is missing key gaming features next year.
    I hate to break it to you, but even a 2070 is not enough to do adequate ray tracing.  You are going to have to wait until the next generation.  The only card that can halfway do ray tracing is the 2080ti.   My friend has a 2080 and he now turns off ray tracing when he plays.  Too much of a performance hit.

Sign In or Register to comment.