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Short video ad for Pantheon's upcoming dev stream - Sneak peek of Monk combat

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Comments

  • XatshXatsh Member RarePosts: 400
    edited April 2017
    No games have been designed for longterm gameplay in recent time. So does p2p not work, or does p2p only not work when people run out of stuff meaningful to do? The question is why are people quitting mmos at a rate 20xs faster then in the past? Why are people moving from mmo to mmo so fast?

    With Pantheon targeting the market that is almost untouched right now, what are people going to leave to? It is not like if a shiny new WoW style themepark AAA game gets launched it will be pulling alot all of Pantheon's subs away, probably will not even dent it. Now if Pantheon was using WoW for its model... then yes I would agree that p2p is probably a horrific idea.

    As for saying p2p cannot work, I 100% disagree. The reasons why p2p keeps failing is the games have been either A) copied, B ) Released way too early, C) Been utter crap. The lessons learned should be if you copy wow... the game will probably fail. Mainly because the market for that style mmo is flooded and the fact WoW still exist.

    IF FFXIV has say 350k active subs, going to use the low estimate most ppl use (after patches and expansions it is much higher). That is 62.5Million a year. Now the game fluctuates between that and 700k subs so lets use 500k for the people who purchase the expansion every other year basically. so ~20million. So the game makes 145million every 2yrs. How can that not sustain itself?

    So ffxiv and wow atm easily can survive on p2p if they throw out the cash shop. They would just make alot less money. So yea it is not question of will it work, it is a question does the publishers and devs want to make less money. Cash shops are designed to make money fast with less effort from the devs. What is easier design a whole quest line with dungeons,bosses, and npcs and such for a mount. Or just design the mount and sell it $4.99... or in the case these days $24.99. One add content but is extremely costly and time consuming and probably will keep people happy for a few days to a week. One takes 1-2 people to make a mount and brings in $250k at probably 1/20th the cost. For the game option A is much better, for making money option B is better... and developers and publishers lately only care about the ever powerful dollar.

    The reason cash shops caught on is because people are making throwaway games. Hell I jump from mmo to mmo as of late not because I want to play different games, or the market is booming. But because the ones being created are designed to be played for 10hrs a week max with a few month of content instead of the 40+ hr of weekly gamplay where you never run out of content before a new expansion like they use to. Hell I wouldn't pay for months with no new content to play either... and strongly support p2p.

    In short if pantheon is a solid game with tons of content and does not release like vangaurd did. P2P probably will work. Will they make the money of a cashshop, not even close. But can it sustain the game, pay the salary, and make money... yes easily. Especially with the lower budget the game has.

    As for people always leaving yes that is true, all games decline in population over time. But people only leave mmos for one of 3 reasons.

    1) Something better launches or is already in the market that targets the same people <= why most WoW clones failed. Some were good game but WoW did WoW better.

    2) You run out of content and people get bored <= the reason why most non WoW clones fail. Game is thriving then people hit endgame and realize hey I have 1 raid and dailies to run. Then they quit a few weeks/months later. (GoGo linear casual game design......)

    3) Real Life Issues (Job/School/Marriage/Kids/Life Changes ect)

    3 is unavoidable. 1-2 well that is the devs issues to figure out. If the game is really good and has enough content to keep everyone happy and only cost $0.15-$0.18 an hour to be on an even playing field, why would people leave it?
  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 20,646

    Xatsh said:

    No games have been designed for longterm gameplay in recent time. So does p2p not work, or does p2p only not work when people run out of stuff meaningful to do? The question is why are people quitting mmos at a rate 20xs faster then in the past? Why are people moving from mmo to mmo so fast?

    With Pantheon targeting the market that is almost untouched right now, what are people going to leave to? It is not like if a shiny new WoW style themepark AAA game gets launched it will be pulling alot all of Pantheon's subs away, probably will not even dent it. Now if Pantheon was using WoW for its model... then yes I would agree that p2p is probably a horrific idea.

    As for saying p2p cannot work, I 100% disagree. The reasons why p2p keeps failing is the games have been either A) copied, B ) Released way too early, C) Been utter crap. The lessons learned should be if you copy wow... the game will probably fail. Mainly because the market for that style mmo is flooded and the fact WoW still exist.

    IF FFXIV has say 350k active subs, going to use the low estimate most ppl use (after patches and expansions it is much higher). That is 62.5Million a year. Now the game fluctuates between that and 700k subs so lets use 500k for the people who purchase the expansion every other year basically. so ~20million. So the game makes 145million every 2yrs. How can that not sustain itself?

    So ffxiv and wow atm easily can survive on p2p if they throw out the cash shop. They would just make alot less money. So yea it is not question of will it work, it is a question does the publishers and devs want to make less money. Cash shops are designed to make money fast with less effort from the devs. What is easier design a whole quest line with dungeons,bosses, and npcs and such for a mount. Or just design the mount and sell it $4.99... or in the case these days $24.99. One add content but is extremely costly and time consuming and probably will keep people happy for a few days to a week. One takes 1-2 people to make a mount and brings in $250k at probably 1/20th the cost. For the game option A is much better, for making money option B is better... and developers and publishers lately only care about the ever powerful dollar.

    The reason cash shops caught on is because people are making throwaway games. Hell I jump from mmo to mmo as of late not because I want to play different games, or the market is booming. But because the ones being created are designed to be played for 10hrs a week max with a few month of content instead of the 40+ hr of weekly gamplay where you never run out of content before a new expansion like they use to. Hell I wouldn't pay for months with no new content to play either... and strongly support p2p.

    In short if pantheon is a solid game with tons of content and does not release like vangaurd did. P2P probably will work. Will they make the money of a cashshop, not even close. But can it sustain the game, pay the salary, and make money... yes easily. Especially with the lower budget the game has.

    As for people always leaving yes that is true, all games decline in population over time. But people only leave mmos for one of 3 reasons.

    1) Something better launches or is already in the market that targets the same people <= why most WoW clones failed. Some were good game but WoW did WoW better.

    2) You run out of content and people get bored <= the reason why most non WoW clones fail. Game is thriving then people hit endgame and realize hey I have 1 raid and dailies to run. Then they quit a few weeks/months later. (GoGo linear casual game design......)

    3) Real Life Issues (Job/School/Marriage/Kids/Life Changes ect)

    3 is unavoidable. 1-2 well that is the devs issues to figure out. If the game is really good and has enough content to keep everyone happy and only cost $0.15-$0.18 an hour to be on an even playing field, why would people leave it?


    See, here's an example of the "reasoning" people use when you don't have honest conversations about the state of the industry.

    FF14 and WoW are not "P2P". They're hybrid with a mandatory subscription, additional RMT services and goods, and in the case of FF14 a tiered subscription where you have to rent extra character slots and storage at a higher fee.

    There are very few true subscription only "P2P" games. The difference between the two is that pure P2P sets a floor and ceiling to revenue per user. A hybrid system does not.

    And I think you just painted your argument into a corner. You cite content, or lack of, as the reason p2p won't work, but it's the opposite. Adding content changes games and is the very reason all those old games designed with longevity in mind aren't the same as they used to be and everyone abandoned them. Do you think this game will be different?

    What happens when Pantheon releases an xpac a couple years down the road and no one likes it and abandons the game? It happened in EQ and UO. Those games are shells of their former selves - we hear that all the time from fans, and in the case of EQ it's gone the seasonal WoW route and has reset servers to provide that "just new feeling".
    Fedora - A modern, free, and open source Operating System. https://getfedora.org/

    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • kitaradkitarad Member LegendaryPosts: 6,289
    The reason people quit MMORPGs and jump from one game to another is because they can. Once upon a time the landscape was so barren you simply stayed in one game and never even thought to look at other games. These days developers don't have that luxury of loyalty because many people play more than one game and a subscription is a deterrent when they can stop subscribing and come back a few months later. So when they stop subscribing to check out another game there will be a loss that will not be made up by new players.

  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 20,646

    Nanfoodle said:



    Mendel said:





    Nanfoodle said:



    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 






    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?




     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 


    Hey, if Chronicles of Elyria can make that game on a couple million dollars who are we to question it right? The problem with you people is that you're not thinking critically about your love project or letting others think critically. How insecure can  you get? Those were good questions.

    How long do you think those fans are going to stick around once the game changes with an xpac? Look at how those fans who you claim are so loyal have ditched their original IPs? The only real fans of those games are still playing, if not just occasionally.

    Why do you think EQ and UO changed and lost all those customers? Because they couldn't maintain acceptable revenue and keep their current development and business strategy.

    Do you think Pantheon is never going to release new content and change? What happens then?
    Fedora - A modern, free, and open source Operating System. https://getfedora.org/

    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,309
    edited April 2017


    DMKano said:





    Dullahan said:







    DMKano said:




    @Dullahan

    You can lol all you want at my comment, but you know that pure p2p model over long period of time *without any cash shop* is unsustainable in todays market.

    There isnt a single mmorpg that has been able to pull of a pure p2p model without cash shop in the last 7 years. None.

    Even super popular games like WoW and FFXIV and ESO had to add a cash shop to supplement profits.

    Can Pantheon launch and stay pure p2p for a while? Absolutely.

    Can they sustain this for years - no, they will have to introduce a cash shop at some point to stay in business, unless they choose to shut the game down instead.










    No, I don't at all know that and have thoroughly refuted that claim on a number of occasions.

    P2P will work perfectly if the game is rewarding, can provide long term goals and a sense of community. None of those things currently exist in most games in the manner they did in Everquest, and it ran perfectly with p2p for over a decade.

    Free to play has an adverse effect on games like Pantheon, because to really work, they must replace progression via time devotion and content with RL money. It does not mesh, would kill the sense of accomplishment and exclusivity that kept EQ popular for so long.








    It is litterally impossible to make pure P2P work longterm.

    Over time players leave - due to a many reasons, from not having enough time, to boredom, a new game release, friends leaving etc...

    Over time the numbers decline and the new players coming in are so few (especially after several years) - you end up with negative profits.

    There is no recovery.

    On top of all this look at the overwhelming plethora of new games coming out, the market is saturated.

    Not EvE, not WoW, not ANY game today can survive long term on pure subscription.

    Pantheon cant either, at some point - most likely 6months to year they will need to supplement p2p with something to keep it profitable.






    so you are saying people don't take breaks and come back to mmo's? that's all i do and i have been doing that for a long time. i don't know how many times i have "quit" playing an MMO only to re-sub a few months or perhaps a year or two later.

    not only that but i would argue that a group centric game that has more of a heavy emphasis on community can hold their player base much better than mmo's that are more single player focused.

    for me, it's been the community and the friends i have made in mmo's that have kept me around. even though you are not wrong about the market being saturated, that doesn't stop me and others from subbing/ re-subbing to games when i/we decide to play.
  • postlarvalpostlarval Member EpicPosts: 2,003

    Catibrie said:



    Dullahan said:


    25k is well below what Pantheon will attract. We're talking about a game that easily won the most anticipated game by a landslide, and one that is based on other games beloved by millions in a time when no similar game exists.




    mmorpg.com staff should really hand out an player choice award for this. Im a little upset they didnt. Its one of a few reasons I pledged. Can't wait to start raining down fire in this game. My Wizard will bring nations down on there knees.



    Pantheon isn't going to release in 2017. Come on. Get a clue.

    How long do playable betas generally last? Around 6 months? It's almost May. They haven't even started alpha yet.

    I'll put my money on 2018 and I might be willing to plop a few dollars on 2019 as well.
    ______________________________________________________________________
    ~~ postlarval ~~

  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,309

    Torval said:

    No, just amused that you people think you're above it all and deserve some special recognition. The people didn't speak shit. Don't think that poll or any of them here mean anything.

    By the way, that was the player's choice awards. So it's already been stated. Did you need a second special award to go with that?


    you seem to have an axe to grind with people that want to play this game. this is one of the more anticipated games due to the fact there is jack shit being developed right now in terms of MMO's.




  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 20,646

    baphamet said:



    Torval said:


    No, just amused that you people think you're above it all and deserve some special recognition. The people didn't speak shit. Don't think that poll or any of them here mean anything.

    By the way, that was the player's choice awards. So it's already been stated. Did you need a second special award to go with that?




    you seem to have an axe to grind with people that want to play this game. this is one of the more anticipated games due to the fact there is jack shit being developed right now in terms of MMO's.





    I don't have an issue with people who want to play the game, just a few people who think they own the game or any conversation or opinion about it and pretend like this game and those people deserve some special reach around.
    Fedora - A modern, free, and open source Operating System. https://getfedora.org/

    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • NanfoodleNanfoodle Member LegendaryPosts: 9,093

    Torval said:



    baphamet said:





    Torval said:



    No, just amused that you people think you're above it all and deserve some special recognition. The people didn't speak shit. Don't think that poll or any of them here mean anything.

    By the way, that was the player's choice awards. So it's already been stated. Did you need a second special award to go with that?






    you seem to have an axe to grind with people that want to play this game. this is one of the more anticipated games due to the fact there is jack shit being developed right now in terms of MMO's.






    I don't have an issue with people who want to play the game, just a few people who think they own the game or any conversation or opinion about it and pretend like this game and those people deserve some special reach around.


     No, you been getting more and more negative with your posts in just about every corner of the forums. You attack mostly in the Pantheon forums. I don't know what's gotten you over the past few months but your not the same guy who garnered great respect here. I used to enjoy reading your feedback and miss the guy you used to be. I hope to see him again. 
  • MendelMendel Member EpicPosts: 4,248

    Nanfoodle said:



    Mendel said:





    Nanfoodle said:



    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 






    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?




     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 


    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • TorvalTorval Member LegendaryPosts: 20,646
    edited April 2017


    Nanfoodle said:





    Torval said:







    baphamet said:









    Torval said:





    No, just amused that you people think you're above it all and deserve some special recognition. The people didn't speak shit. Don't think that poll or any of them here mean anything.

    By the way, that was the player's choice awards. So it's already been stated. Did you need a second special award to go with that?










    you seem to have an axe to grind with people that want to play this game. this is one of the more anticipated games due to the fact there is jack shit being developed right now in terms of MMO's.








    I don't have an issue with people who want to play the game, just a few people who think they own the game or any conversation or opinion about it and pretend like this game and those people deserve some special reach around.






     No, you been getting more and more negative with your posts in just about every corner of the forums. You attack mostly in the Pantheon forums. I don't know what's gotten you over the past few months but your not the same guy who garnered great respect here. I used to enjoy reading your feedback and miss the guy you used to be. I hope to see him again. 




    I heard the same thing when this happened with the Camelot Unchained fans a couple of years ago when they tried to stake claims of being better than the rest and the fanboys trying to control the dialog. Or when the FF14 fans tried to take the soapbox about their sub-only no cash shop success.

    I'm the same person trying to keep the conversation honest and real. It's just that conversations are less friendly when people aren't being honest and open. I try not to be personal either but take any forum thread comment for what it is and comment or click on it accordingly.

    edit: Hey, they're free thread bumps too. That's how games stay on the current discussion list.
    Fedora - A modern, free, and open source Operating System. https://getfedora.org/

    traveller, interloper, anomaly, iteration


  • hatefulpeacehatefulpeace Member UncommonPosts: 621
    edited April 2017
    Man that game looks like garbage lol, they actually showed that, I would be ashamed to show that to people. It makes everquest 1 animations look good. If your goal was to get people not to want to play it, well you got me not to want to play it. 
  • svannsvann Member RarePosts: 2,223
    edited April 2017




    Man that game looks like garbage lol, they actually showed that, I would be ashamed to show that to people. It makes everquest 1 animations look good. If your goal was to get people not to want to play it, well you got me not to want to play it. 




    for your delight in viewing - actual eq1 prealpha footage for comparison:


  • NanfoodleNanfoodle Member LegendaryPosts: 9,093

    Mendel said:



    Nanfoodle said:





    Mendel said:







    Nanfoodle said:




    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 








    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?






     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 




    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.



     Ok maybe Pantheon won't follow the norm of every MMO to date that does not lay off staff shortly after it releases. Sure. As to evidence that there are tones of people lining up for Pantheon, I never said that. I said there is much hype when people see a possible rebirth of EQ1 that fans have been asking for since 2004 when they saw what Blizzard could do. SoE ignored that fan base. Fans of the combat style, CC, DPS, Support and Tank has not had a new MMO since DAoC. Before that EQ1. If and that was my point, if Pantheon pulls it off it will be a beautiful thing. This is something fans could get behind.  
  • MendelMendel Member EpicPosts: 4,248

    Nanfoodle said:



    Mendel said:





    Nanfoodle said:







    Mendel said:









    Nanfoodle said:





    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 










    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?








     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 






    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.





     Ok maybe Pantheon won't follow the norm of every MMO to date that does not lay off staff shortly after it releases. Sure. As to evidence that there are tones of people lining up for Pantheon, I never said that. I said there is much hype when people see a possible rebirth of EQ1 that fans have been asking for since 2004 when they saw what Blizzard could do. SoE ignored that fan base. Fans of the combat style, CC, DPS, Support and Tank has not had a new MMO since DAoC. Before that EQ1. If and that was my point, if Pantheon pulls it off it will be a beautiful thing. This is something fans could get behind.  


    Where is this fan base of disgruntled EQ1 fans?

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • NanfoodleNanfoodle Member LegendaryPosts: 9,093
    edited April 2017


    Mendel said:





    Nanfoodle said:







    Mendel said:









    Nanfoodle said:











    Mendel said:













    Nanfoodle said:







    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 














    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?












     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 










    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.









     Ok maybe Pantheon won't follow the norm of every MMO to date that does not lay off staff shortly after it releases. Sure. As to evidence that there are tones of people lining up for Pantheon, I never said that. I said there is much hype when people see a possible rebirth of EQ1 that fans have been asking for since 2004 when they saw what Blizzard could do. SoE ignored that fan base. Fans of the combat style, CC, DPS, Support and Tank has not had a new MMO since DAoC. Before that EQ1. If and that was my point, if Pantheon pulls it off it will be a beautiful thing. This is something fans could get behind.  






    Where is this fan base of disgruntled EQ1 fans?




     Im one right here. Want to see more, go read the threads on this forum when EQN was announced. EQ1 fans rejoiced, then look at the threads when people found out it would be more like a MOBA then EQ1. People were looking for EQ2 that EQ2 never was. 
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    edited April 2017
    DMKano said:
    It is litterally impossible to make pure P2P work longterm.

    Over time players leave - due to a many reasons, from not having enough time, to boredom, a new game release, friends leaving etc...

    Over time the numbers decline and the new players coming in are so few (especially after several years) - you end up with negative profits.

    There is no recovery.

    On top of all this look at the overwhelming plethora of new games coming out, the market is saturated.

    Not EvE, not WoW, not ANY game today can survive long term on pure subscription.

    Pantheon cant either, at some point - most likely 6months to year they will need to supplement p2p with something to keep it profitable.







    Yes, p2p is impossible in the box in which you dwell. You seem to think every game is going to be subject to the same limitations of the current variety of MMOs which are not built for community or long-term play. That will simply not be the case with Pantheon, so comparing it to the short-term games that people jump back and forth from is a fallacious comparison.

    It's not some mysterious reason why people leave games. The vast majority of the people who leave games do it because a) there's so many games just like it to play, b) the games offer very limited content which can be achieved with very little time devoted, and seldom requires coordination with other players, c) they cannot hold the player's attention long enough for them to establish a bond with the game, it's world, and it's players, d) or they are just poorly constructed and created to milk people with cash shops in short bursts -- by design.

    Pantheon will not be any of the above. Continually pretending that this game will therefore fail to survive on p2p purely because other games have failed on a very different, and frankly un-massively multiplayer design, is not a fair, logical or intelligent comparison.

    Furthermore, this bull feces you continually spread about how "people nowadays have more to do/more games to play" is flat out falsehood. I had plenty of games to play, among other things back in the 90s. There was no less competition for my free time in the '90s or early oughts than there is now. There were also at least a dozen other mmos competing with EQ while it was most successful, and even after their playerbase was significantly reduced post-WoW, they still survived for 7 years on a subscription with dozens of other games to choose from.

    Your argument is fatally flawed.


    However, you are correct that a lot of things are still up in the air. Yes, Visionary Realms could fail to deliver. The game might not offer the necessary content for that bond to be created that people had with first generation MMOs. It could be too buggy ala Vanguard, or of course, it could fail to launch altogether.

    My remarks above are of course based on the assumption that what they're creating will become a reality according to the design they've put forth. If they truly create a quality game (doesn't even have to be top notch AAA quality), it will be successful longer on a pure p2p system than any game that's come out in over a decade. That is a big if, however.


  • MendelMendel Member EpicPosts: 4,248

    Nanfoodle said:




    Mendel said:







    Nanfoodle said:









    Mendel said:











    Nanfoodle said:













    Mendel said:















    Nanfoodle said:








    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 
















    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?














     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 












    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.











     Ok maybe Pantheon won't follow the norm of every MMO to date that does not lay off staff shortly after it releases. Sure. As to evidence that there are tones of people lining up for Pantheon, I never said that. I said there is much hype when people see a possible rebirth of EQ1 that fans have been asking for since 2004 when they saw what Blizzard could do. SoE ignored that fan base. Fans of the combat style, CC, DPS, Support and Tank has not had a new MMO since DAoC. Before that EQ1. If and that was my point, if Pantheon pulls it off it will be a beautiful thing. This is something fans could get behind.  








    Where is this fan base of disgruntled EQ1 fans?






     Im one right here. Want to see more, go read the threads on this forum when EQN was announced. EQ1 fans rejoiced, then look at the threads when people found out it would be more like a MOBA then EQ1. People were looking for EQ2 that EQ2 never was. 


    The entire active members of MMORPG.com is less than 250 regulars.  I'll give you those 250.  Where are those other 24,750 subscriptions coming from?

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534

    Mendel said:



    Nanfoodle said:






    Mendel said:









    Nanfoodle said:











    Mendel said:













    Nanfoodle said:















    Mendel said:

















    Nanfoodle said:









    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 


















    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?
















     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 














    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.













     Ok maybe Pantheon won't follow the norm of every MMO to date that does not lay off staff shortly after it releases. Sure. As to evidence that there are tones of people lining up for Pantheon, I never said that. I said there is much hype when people see a possible rebirth of EQ1 that fans have been asking for since 2004 when they saw what Blizzard could do. SoE ignored that fan base. Fans of the combat style, CC, DPS, Support and Tank has not had a new MMO since DAoC. Before that EQ1. If and that was my point, if Pantheon pulls it off it will be a beautiful thing. This is something fans could get behind.  










    Where is this fan base of disgruntled EQ1 fans?








     Im one right here. Want to see more, go read the threads on this forum when EQN was announced. EQ1 fans rejoiced, then look at the threads when people found out it would be more like a MOBA then EQ1. People were looking for EQ2 that EQ2 never was. 




    The entire active members of MMORPG.com is less than 250 regulars.  I'll give you those 250.  Where are those other 24,750 subscriptions coming from?


    You do realize that many thousands of people have already pledged to Pantheon, exceeding the money they asked for during their original failed kickstarter, do you not?

    I can tell you right now, those who have pledged are dwarfed by those who are waiting until launch.


  • MendelMendel Member EpicPosts: 4,248

    DMKano said:




    Mendel said:







    Nanfoodle said:









    Mendel said:











    Nanfoodle said:






    Huge fan of guess math (^_-) why should I trust your math and guesses over the people at Pantheon who have been in the business at least a little longer then you? 












    You don't have to trust my math.  The point is (and always has been) that there are several ways of interpreting the information that Pantheon is providing, not just the 'corporate' view.  Do you really want to support a company that is stingy to it's employees, keeping salaries and benefits down, just to meet some marketing promise?  I had pegged you as a bit more altruistic than that.

    It's a legitimate question -- can Visionary Realms really survive with only 25,000 subscribers?










     Wasn't going to but if you insist. In your math you miss the small point that you need way more staff to make an MMO then to keep it running. That's why most MMO launch and then lay off a large number of staff. My point is your guess work is given from little experience and I could pick it apart further. I'm sure VR CFO has a plan born from education and experience. If they say they can function with 25'000 subs who are you to question it? What is the point of questioning it? 

    Also as pointed out above there is a good chance they won't be running at the bare minimum. Fans of EQ1 and Vanguard have been begging SoE for a modern MMO just like Pantheon and has fallen on defeat ears for 10 years. EQ2 does not count as it's play style is no where near the same. Look at the following and hype EQN got on their announcement of the project. How the hype died when they saw it was not a successor of EQ1. Pantheon fills a long wanted hole. If they pull it off it could be a thing of beauty. 








    First point.  Yes, MMORPGs can operate with smaller staffs.  Where are the 30 currently on the team going to go when the project is launched?  I can tell you.  They will begin working to develop an expansion pack.  Why?  Subscriptions rely on new content.  Since those 30 people are going to be occupied with new development duties, VR is likely to need to hire additional staff for operational support.   You think that VR's staff size is going to shrink because they go live?  I don't. 

    Second point.  Your projection is based purely on anecdotal evidence.  I've asked many times where these hoards of people are that are going to step forward and give VR money.  I can't identify them, and no one has bothered to attempt an answer.  Yet, you continue to believe and use this unidentified group of people as 'proof' that Pantheon will be a great success.  Field of Dreams might be a great, entertaining movie, but it's not a model for a sound business plan.








    Let me tell you one thing about P2P games and expansions, the expansions have a deminishing return with each expansion.

    Here is a typical scenario of what it looks like :

    1. MMORPG launch - lets say it's 250K Subscribers

    2. The first expansion is slated for a year after launch - by that time lets say the active subs are at 150K (60% population decline in a year is very optimistic but this is just an example)

    3. The expansion launches - and it's a good one - the subs go up to 210K

    4. Expansion 2 is in the works - takes another year - by the time it launches the subs are at 100K (yes you lose players faster as the time goes on)

    5. Expansion 2 launch - you go up to 140K players


    So with each expansion you regain less and less playerbase, over time the expansions only point is to keep the existing core playerbase as you almost gain no new players

    Another reason why pure P2P just doesn't work





    I totally agree about the diminishing returns and the player retention thing.

    I do think there are a sizable number of supporters that simply do not want to see.   They want to believe that this is 1999 again, and VR will take steps to churn out content via expansions.   It seems to please their world-view.

    From all evidence, I suspect that some people at VR also believe that the way forward is to produce new content continuously.  That, or they trying to placate those supporters that do.  That's really what the 25,000 subscriber number sounds like -- spinning what would be a worst-case scenario into a palatable good-news situation.

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • kitaradkitarad Member LegendaryPosts: 6,289
    It's a comfort to know that even the developers do not place such high expectations on their game that some of their fans do. They are being realistic.

  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    edited April 2017


    DMKano said:



    Stupid formatting... grrrr
    DMKano below 

    You are betting on the most optimistic of outcomes - which is fine, but I do hope you realize that VR delivering an amazing game (which is what it would take) is pretty slim.

    Now I know that this sounds like a major downer - but in the last 15 years of MMORPGs, how many were amazing? Not even 1%.

    Just being a realist here - I think the most likely outcome for Pantheon is that it's an average game (just like most MMOs) - which is not going to be good enough for this miraculous longterm P2P to work.


    Oh and the fact that TODAY there is 100x more options for entertainment than back in 1999-2003 is not "bull feces"

    Things that didn't exist back in 1999 - no Facebook, no youtube, no steam, no Netflix .. no 100s of MMOs come on - and most of these don't require $15 a month.

    In the the hayday of EQ1 (1999-2003) - there was UO, AC, AO, DAoC as the main competitors. Once WoW came out - it put on a real hurting on most MMORPGs.

    If this is "bull feces" to you - then I don't know what to say.


    I don't know how you were set in the '90s, perhaps you didn't have the luxuries I had in my youth (I can tell you, they're greater than those which I can afford myself, lol). For me though, I had more TV channels and programs than I had time to watch. I had more games than I had time to play. We had blockbuster where games and movies were available for rent as a pace more rapid than we could ever hope to keep up with. We also had more in-person social events than you could even find now via Facebook if you scoured it daily, because those more personal (and time consuming) gatherings were the norm over texting/skyping/social media'ing...

    The argument that things have changed and we have "less time" because of the shallow, yet convenient social and gaming platforms that we have today, is completely false. Maybe you didn't have those things at your disposal in the '90s, or you were living in your mom's basement, but the rest of us in the world had as much, if not more, things contending with our time than we do today.


  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    edited April 2017
    Mendel said:

    I totally agree about the diminishing returns and the player retention thing.

    I do think there are a sizable number of supporters that simply do not want to see.   They want to believe that this is 1999 again, and VR will take steps to churn out content via expansions.   It seems to please their world-view.

    From all evidence, I suspect that some people at VR also believe that the way forward is to produce new content continuously.  That, or they trying to placate those supporters that do.  That's really what the 25,000 subscriber number sounds like -- spinning what would be a worst-case scenario into a palatable good-news situation.


    Totally agree with your conclusions, except for that hilarious 25k number. If Pantheon dropped tomorrow with 10 zones and a level cap of 20, it would have 25k in less than a day's time. It would probably lack the content and quality to retain them very long, but that number would be reached in hours by just the curious few alone.

    While I'm agreeing with you, I'll also put forth that you're correct about Pantheon likely keeping their complete staff, if not growing post launch. Some positions may be converted to others and the scope of responsibilities will probably change, but a game like Pantheon has an obligation to produce content at an accelerated rate if they intend to go full p2p. EQ having expansions every 10 months or so was a huge factor in their ability to grow their playerbase over the other alternatives, as well as staying profitable even after losing many players in the later years. They must follow that pattern if they intend to have similar results.




  • DancwithDancwith Member UncommonPosts: 28
    I'm...........not impressed by what I see of the combat.  I would have expected more given the technology available today.  A lot more.  There is will need to be some drastic improvements before I, personally, give any kind of sub or donation to this one.
  • baphametbaphamet Member RarePosts: 3,309
    edited April 2017


    Nanfoodle said:





    Torval said:


    I don't have an issue with people who want to play the game, just a few people who think they own the game or any conversation or opinion about it and pretend like this game and those people deserve some special reach around.






     No, you been getting more and more negative with your posts in just about every corner of the forums. You attack mostly in the Pantheon forums. I don't know what's gotten you over the past few months but your not the same guy who garnered great respect here. I used to enjoy reading your feedback and miss the guy you used to be. I hope to see him again. 




    i agree with this. that is why i assumed he had some issue with the game or it's fans because i have personally read a lot of his posts in the ESO sub forum that is quite the opposite of what's going on over here.

    i'm not trying to bash torval either, he can not like this game or think it's going to fail or whatever, it's cool. me personally, i have my doubts pantheon even sees the light of day but i am cautiously optimistic it will be fun and hold my attention for a while if/when it launches.

    i think the main thing people need to understand is this is very much an indie MMO, if you have high expectations for this game then there is a good chance you will be disappointed.






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