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I'll say it again: Pantheon will flop

RegnorRegnor Member UncommonPosts: 108

Sure, it's got a small but loyal following right now, because there is no game yet. When there is, just watch as reality sets in and people realized why they disliked EQ so much. Forced group play? Great, if you like sitting around for hours LFG.

When McQuaid left all his Vanguard team stranded in the parking lot with pink slips and not even the decency to face them, it was understood that he would never again get money to start a game company. And then crowd sourcing happened and the suckers poured in.

No matter how hard you try, you can never re-create the past. Nostalgia is not a good basis for game design. Pantheon looks good on paper to all those who long to re-live EQ and who romanticize about "the good old days". But the genre has moved on and evolved for a reason: few diehards want to go back there now.

Pantheon may never get off the ground, because the company is poised to run out of money long before they have a compelling experience. But if by some miracle they do manage to launch a game, it will be a disastrous launch (that's McQuaid's track record, after all) and then after a few days of misery, players will realize that the cold reality of the actual game experience, cannot possibly live up to their hopes and dreams to re-live the "glory days" of Qeynos and Freeport. The game may not fail right away but, based on what I've seen so far and what I know of this developer, it seems likely to be a complete and utter commercial flop.

Men do not stop playing because they grow old. They grow old because they stop playing. -- Oliver Wendell Holmes

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Comments

  • LoudWisperLoudWisper Member UncommonPosts: 75
    nostalgia goggles will do that =)  
  • ShaighShaigh Member RarePosts: 2,058
    Pillars of eternity, divinity: original sin, wasteland 2, shadowrun returns/dragonfall/HK were successful games but if they had been made by Bioware, Blizzard and Bethesda they would have been viewed as flops. For AAA games 50k longtime subscribers is a massive flop, for Pantheon 50k longtime subscribers would be a successful game.

    There's no doubt that a solid mmorpg with the features that Pantheon promises can hold 50k subscribers. The question is how you deliver a high quality mmorpg that warrants a subscription on a $10M budget.
    The cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
  • Azaron_NightbladeAzaron_Nightblade Member EpicPosts: 4,825
    Staying afloat with about 50k subscribers sounds about right.
    By most MMO standards that would probably be considered a flop. But then again, most aim for higher numbers than 50k.

    Either that, or it'll go the way of Pathfinder. But I think having an experienced team behind the wheels will avert a catastrophe of that magnitude.

    My SWTOR referral link for those wanting to give the game a try. (Newbies get a welcome package while returning players get a few account upgrades to help with their preferred status.)

    https://www.ashesofcreation.com/ref/Callaron/

  • DKLondDKLond Member RarePosts: 2,273
    I can't predict the future, I can only rely on my experience with people and the gaming industry.

    Personally, I think there's still room for games like Pantheon - but there's absolutely no way - in my mind - that it will sustain more than 50-200k players after a few months. To me, 200k would be a miracle.

    If that's enough to keep it afloat and prosper - then it should be fine.

    However, the people expecting it to have a large 500k+ playerbase are being extremely naive - at least if you ask me.

    That said, I have no desire to see games fail - and I'd be more than happy to be wrong. People will flock to great games - and that's as it should be.
  • SavageHorizonSavageHorizon Member RarePosts: 3,432
    Staying afloat with about 50k subscribers sounds about right.
    By most MMO standards that would probably be considered a flop. But then again, most aim for higher numbers than 50k.

    Either that, or it'll go the way of Pathfinder. But I think having an experienced team behind the wheels will avert a catastrophe of that magnitude.


    I'll say it now " this hypocrite will be playing Pantheon"  he will suffer amnesia and conveniently forget his pathetic thread. 

    But then again I hope he does stay away, seems he is angry because Brad & Co are not making the MMO he wants lol. 




  • BurntvetBurntvet Member RarePosts: 3,465
    This is all irrelevant: there is no game yet, and at the rate it is going won't even potentially be, for years. That said, all of those other games that other poster mentioned were NOT MMO/MMORPGs, and those are an order of magnitude more difficult and expensive than SPGs. And a game, any game, can not spend forever in production, the tech / engines being used age out fast enough as it is. The biggest challenge Pantheon has, and is not likely to overcome, is a severe lack of financing. Cash is not king, in MMO development, it is God. And these people are "under-resourced" to say the least. That is just reality.
  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 17,862
    edited February 2017
    Well OP,i can't really say Brad has not earned some anger but there is a very big world of game development out there beyond Brad,that is everyday trying  to sell you CRAP.

    I could start naming games that are grossly over hyped but i don't need to because imo ALL of them are looking like sub par games,not worth not only my money but my time.

    I am happy that today a game that actually looks worth following arises Ashes of Creation" because i had seriously lost hope for this genre having seen what is out there.To be fair COE also looks noteworthy but i don't agree with their monetary system and p2w possibilities,but yes the game looks good enough for those followers to be excited.
    I would argue tooth and nail that aside from COE and Ashes ,none of those other games are going to be better than a 5/10,Pantheon MAYBE a 6/10 i am still in the air on Pantheon.Thing with Pantheon is i do like some of their design ideas and the game has potential.The rest of the field out there that i would barely give a passing grade to also have the added feature of terrible looking cash shop ideas and some real silly game play/combat.

    My long winded point is,don't think for a minute that Brad is alone in the anger department,there is a long list of deceitful salesmen out there.I could write a novel on all the areas developers are pulling the wool over people's eyes or just plain ripping them off or lying through their teeth.


    Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.

  • SiugSiug Member UncommonPosts: 1,257
    I cannot see the future...yet...but I hope that Pantheon won't flop. For me it's the only MMO I consider worth following atm. Haven't given them any money though and won't until I see the product.
  • NycteliosNyctelios Member EpicPosts: 3,818
    People here love some false dichotomy.
    Steam ID Discord ID: Night # 6102 - GoG ID - 

    Current playing: 
    Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - Shadowbringers; EvE Online

    "There is a fine line between consideration and hesitation. The former is wisdom, the latter is fear." Izaro Phrecius, Holy Emperor of the Eternal Empire, Last of Royal Phrecius Family.
  • cheyanecheyane Member EpicPosts: 7,229
    I think that I have very little faith that this game will actually make it to completion. The funding is a big problem and the fact that even on Youtube they cannot muster up even 5000 subscribers is very telling. The fact that his previous effort Vanguard was so bugged and I played that and continued playing because I loved the game so much  but it had more funding and still failed. So very little hope here. That's why the other thread predicting its success is a huge joke.

    However I still hope he and his team manages to release a playable game I say playable because I doubt it will be very good. I would play it and I would subscribe but it may indeed die on the vine. 

    I wish the game all the best though and hopefully they manage to fulfil some dreams at least .
    Martens: "With all due respect, madam, where are you going with this?"
    Avasarala: "Wherever I goddamn like."
  • SavageHorizonSavageHorizon Member RarePosts: 3,432
    Lol, people still flogging the dead horse, personally I think people are surprised there predictions are not turning out to be true so far. 

    Apparently this game was dead with the early kick-start attempt but here we still are. The game is rolling along nicely. 







  • MarknMarkn Member UncommonPosts: 202
    edited February 2017
    There is a market for this game.  Daybreak proves it everytime they open up TLP servers in EQ they're always full and bring back thousands of old players for 3-6 months at a time. 

    People who blame brad for Vanguard don't know the truth.  He holds some of the responsibility for how it turned out, but it's not all on him.  My guess is if Microsoft didn't dump them in early beta they would of released a much better game.  SOE came in with no intention to invest in the development of a competitor to EQ period and did everything they could to force a release that was not ready.

    The real question for me is how does a company funded by crowd funding compete with a the AAA developers from ESO, WOW, FF etc.  These companies are able to produce and release new content yearly.  That is the true test can you retain the players you get playing.
  • GladDogGladDog Member RarePosts: 1,065
    edited February 2017
    Pantheon will release.  They still have an angel investor that supplied them with enough money to finish the project.  The kickstarter was going to help them finish faster and with more features at release.  Will it be fun and compelling?  I hope so, since this is one of the games on my radar.

    Here is what bugs me about the whole project; The people that are pushing for this game to be 'hard' and 'take a lot of time to level cap' and 'brutal death penalties'.  And so on.  Apparently they want to be playing with 2000-3000 others that think the same way they do until the game closes the doors. 

    The MMO crowd out there isn't going to play the game 'they' want.  To them, the game should be easy mode until you get to raids.  That does not mean that there isn't room to increase the difficulty, but 'brutal' is going to drive away the fans they need to keep the light on.  When EQ1 released and did well, there wasn't much competition. People that wanted 'easy mode' only had one option; buy a potent character on e-bay.  Now, there are TONS of games all competing for a slice of the same pie. 

    You can't make your own difficulty rules anymore for modern MMORPGs, unless turning a profit is not important to you...
    Post edited by GladDog on


    The world is going to the dogs, which is just how I planned it!


  • delete5230delete5230 Member EpicPosts: 6,512
    I'm the one that made the original topic " Pantheon will be huge ".


    It's oblivious I'm a fan.  But I have to say I hold no allegiance to Pantheon. In fact as much as hype the game I would say developers most likely don't like my style of hype.


    WHY ?......... Because I simply call it as I see it !........ And this is what I see:

    I see an industry STARVING for a real mmo.  EVERYTHING made in the last 10 years are shallow shells of nothingness. Were reduced to Asian grinders.  

    There made to solo.  They pray on the shy but go to far with it, leaving the mmo player with nothing to play.  What they should do is fix the problem. 

    GuildWars 2 was the first to put a Band-Aid on it by auto grouping in a natural way ( simply walk up to players and your auto group ).  But the fact is the game gets boring extremely fast because of it. If not for a very good Buy-to-play model, the world would be as empty as 99% of all other games.  Everyone knows exactly what I'm talking about !.......GW2 is the poster child of everything being made.


    I say fix the problem !......How ?...... First Developers have to be innovative and try something new, and definitely get rid of some of the old. 

    - Chat needs to be easily clickable.
    - Players need to be informed of group content so they know what their taking invites for.
    - Players don't like to be embarrassed for mistakes. This shouldn't be fixed by lowering the games threshold and making it easy.  But start by not making the group pay the price for some ones death.

    The only thing wrong with true mmos is group innovations....This has never been fixed.



    The industry is STARVING......And VR and Pantheon is the only ones that understand this.




  • NycteliosNyctelios Member EpicPosts: 3,818
    You guys should keep an eye on the view numbers of their videos and not the subscription count.

    Check any top youtuber and you'll see that subscription doesn't mean, by any stretch of imagination, people looking your content - most of times is just a reflection of the mainstream people clicking on a button because something is "hot" at that moment (and immediately jump to another bandwagon). 
    Steam ID Discord ID: Night # 6102 - GoG ID - 

    Current playing: 
    Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - Shadowbringers; EvE Online

    "There is a fine line between consideration and hesitation. The former is wisdom, the latter is fear." Izaro Phrecius, Holy Emperor of the Eternal Empire, Last of Royal Phrecius Family.
  • delete5230delete5230 Member EpicPosts: 6,512
    PANTHEON NEEDS TO BE A FULL GAME AT RELEASE

    - The entire world, all the classes cities and towns
    - Able to handle the servers
    - Rich with game play
    - Minor bugs only, excuses don't work
    - No cash shop, no tricks

    They have one shot, that's a fact !!!!!!
  • skadadskadad Member UncommonPosts: 392
    PANTHEON NEEDS TO BE A FULL GAME AT RELEASE

    - The entire world, all the classes cities and towns
    - Able to handle the servers
    - Rich with game play
    - Minor bugs only, excuses don't work
    - No cash shop, no tricks

    They have one shot, that's a fact !!!!!!
    Vanguard would have done much better to release with 1 continent/races/classes and releaseing the others as expansions, like eq1 did. The entire planned world is just not viable to release at once. People usually compare new games with games that have been out for years when comparing content. That will just not work.
  • deniterdeniter Member RarePosts: 1,367
    I just read through the list of FAQ on Pantheons website linked by another poster on delete5230s thread. There's no single feature or design choice i would have made differently. The game could very well be designed by me. Am i one of the kind of special snowflake in gaming community? I don't think so.

    Still, there's dozens of reasons Pantheon could possibly flop. Buggy client, laggy servers, badly optimized code, poor animations, unresponsive combat, excess use of loading screens, etc. just to name few. We can't be sure until we have a chance to play it, which will be the first beta later on this year. Game design, however, is not the weakness of this game.

    If you want to make a game these days that is guaranteed to flop, you should copy everything from WoW:Legion. Not because it's a bad game, which is not, but because there's already a similar product on market that makes it better than your low budget indie game could ever do. To evolve this genre further you have to take risks and make experiments. In this regards Pantheon is doing a superb job.
  • cheyanecheyane Member EpicPosts: 7,229
    edited February 2017
    Nyctelios said:
    You guys should keep an eye on the view numbers of their videos and not the subscription count.

    Check any top youtuber and you'll see that subscription doesn't mean, by any stretch of imagination, people looking your content - most of times is just a reflection of the mainstream people clicking on a button because something is "hot" at that moment (and immediately jump to another bandwagon). 
    I have a lot of sewing and other videos I put up so let me tell you something about views. Some of those views are less than a minute you can check the stats yourself on the youtube account that you own as the uploader. People checking out a video means little too if the people cannot even be bothered to subscribe or stay and watch the whole video.

    If you compare Chronicles of Elyria and Pantheon Rise of the Fallen channels they are more or less drawing the same numbers with the advantage to Chronicles which has over 10,000 subscribers since they have more videos up. Note also Chronicles got over 300k views for their first look pre-alpha and Pantheon managed not even half that .

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa7jRzCTpW2NCh4FK11y9jQ/videos

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4MbaiykerIrjKWRA6407tQ

    Take those numbers how you want and make of it as you wish at the end of the day if people are truly convinced and wish for this game to succeed they should invest and subscribing to the youtube account is a small effort to show your interest. The saddest thing is the biggest supporters of this game on this forum  have admitted to not investing in it, what does that tell you about their own doubts and convictions.

    It's the funding that worries me and if they have a fairy godmother in the wings (probably a huge milionaire Everquest fan) then I hope to play it when it comes out. 
    Martens: "With all due respect, madam, where are you going with this?"
    Avasarala: "Wherever I goddamn like."
  • coretex666coretex666 Member EpicPosts: 3,838
    I guess in this story, I am the "diehard that wants to go back there now".

    Pantheon not being commercially successful is quite possible. If it does not launch or closes shortly after launch, so what...I did not pledge any money upfront, so I can just impartially observe how the game develops.
  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 36,361
    cheyane said:
    Nyctelios said:
    You guys should keep an eye on the view numbers of their videos and not the subscription count.

    Check any top youtuber and you'll see that subscription doesn't mean, by any stretch of imagination, people looking your content - most of times is just a reflection of the mainstream people clicking on a button because something is "hot" at that moment (and immediately jump to another bandwagon). 
    I have a lot of sewing and other videos I put up so let me tell you something about views. Some of those views are less than a minute you can check the stats yourself on the youtube account. People checking out a video means little too if the people cannot even be bothered to subscribe or stay and watch the whole video.

    If you compare Chronicles of Elyria and Pantheon Rise of the Fallen channels they are more or less drawing the same numbers with the advantage to Chronicles since they have more videos up. Note also Chronicles got over 300k views for their first look pre-alpha and Pantheon managed not even half that .

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa7jRzCTpW2NCh4FK11y9jQ/videos

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4MbaiykerIrjKWRA6407tQ

    Take those numbers how you want and make of it as you wish at the end of the day if people are truly convinced and wish for this game to succeed they should invest and subscribing to the youtube account is a small effort to show your interest. The saddest thing is the biggest supporters of this game on this forum  have admitted to not investing in it, what does that tell you about their own doubts and convictions.

    It's the funding that worries me and if they have a fairy godmother in the wings (probably a huge milionaire Everquest fan) then I hope to play it when it comes out. 
    I've watched a number of videos in my day and never once considered "subscribing" no idea why I would even want to.

    While I eschew most social media, amongst my circle of friends I am considered "hipster" because I have a Facebook account, use Discord and have all chat software set up including jabber and mumble.

    Most of them don't and while they are old EQ players and target buyers for this game none of us are "following" it anywhere.

    So gauging potential support for this game based off of social media indicators might be a bit inaccurate as weirdly enough many people don't use it.

    "See normal people, I'm not one of them" | G-Easy & Big Sean

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing FO76 at the moment.

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

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  • KatillaKatilla Member UncommonPosts: 829
    Markn said:
    There is a market for this game.  Daybreak proves it everytime they open up TLP servers in EQ they're always full and bring back thousands of old players for 3-6 months at a time. 

    People who blame brad for Vanguard don't know the truth.  He holds some of the responsibility for how it turned out, but it's not all on him.  My guess is if Microsoft didn't dump them in early beta they would of released a much better game.  SOE came in with no intention to invest in the development of a competitor to EQ period and did everything they could to force a release that was not ready.

    The real question for me is how does a company funded by crowd funding compete with a the AAA developers from ESO, WOW, FF etc.  These companies are able to produce and release new content yearly.  That is the true test can you retain the players you get playing.


    Well if you look at the prices they are charging for beta access, i think they are relying on people interested enough to take a blind leap to try it.
    Also, if they go the route of subscription based, thier playerbase will take a hit.  Good point about EQ, but 3-6 months is not retention enough to be a success.
    Right on point about SOE giving Vanguard the shaft. I was there for that whole fiasco. I also Blame Brad as well as SOE for the parking lot pink slip party.  Just like I blame Richard Garriot on taking the money from Tabula Rasa and using it to launch himself into space and abandoning his game until it died.

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 14,425
    I guess it's fair play of sorts to have this kind of wild speculation as a counterpoint to the other thread's wild speculation.

    It's like you guys don't get that these crowdfunded indie MMOs are meant to draw less than 1/10th of what the AAA projects aim for. Success or flop is all relative and totally predicated by expectations. Not your expectations, the developer's.

    I can see Pantheon attracting enough people to settle at a comfortable 50K. And that translates into $9 Mil per year. AAA studios would consider that a flop. Indie studios wouldn't.
    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

    "... the "influencers" which is the tech name we call sell outs now..."
    __ Wizardry, 2020
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    edited February 2017


    Pantheon development is going great. They still have to deliver the final product, but it's spiritual predecessor is by far the most referenced and reminisced over game on every major mmo forum for the last 10+ years. Hence the reason is totally crushed all the other hyped upcoming games like CoE, Crowfall, and the rest of the eastern ports.

    http://www.mmorpg.com/awards/players-choice-awards-most-wanted-mmo-of-2017-1000011456

    Only time will tell, but there's a huge audience waiting for a game like this.

    http://www.mmorpg.com/galleries/Dullahan/6274_pantheon


  • svannsvann Member RarePosts: 2,218

    But just then up came the big Billy Goat Gruff .

    Trip, trap, trip, trap, trip, trap! went the bridge, for the billy goat was so heavy that the bridge creaked and groaned under him.

    "Who's that tramping over my bridge?" roared the troll.

    "It's I! The big Billy Goat Gruff ," said the billy goat, who had an ugly hoarse voice of his own.

    "Now I 'm coming to gobble you up," roared the troll.

    Well, come along! I've got two spears,
    And I'll poke your eyeballs out at your ears;
    I've got besides two curling-stones,
    And I'll crush you to bits, body and bones.


This discussion has been closed.