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I'll say it again, Pantheon will be huge

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  • mgilbrtsnmgilbrtsn Member EpicPosts: 3,324
    I play games because I think I'll enjoy them.  They don't have to be 'huge' or 'epic' for me to get enjoyment. The same goes for server populations.  I don't require the most populated servers to have a good time.  Conversely, you have the people who only like niche games.  Games that are under the radar because hardly anybody plays them.  It's just as bad.

    Play what is fun and not what you perceive others are doing.

    Concentrate on enjoying yourself, and not on why I shouldn't enjoy myself.

  • NycteliosNyctelios Member EpicPosts: 3,821
    Posts are either "this is the worst scam/hoax piece of s*** ever" or "this is the best and will be the best ever"...


    No in between with you guys.
    Steam ID Discord ID: Night # 6102 - GoG ID - 

    Current playing: 
    Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - Shadowbringers; Genshin Impact

    "There is a fine line between consideration and hesitation. The former is wisdom, the latter is fear." Izaro Phrecius, Holy Emperor of the Eternal Empire, Last of Royal Phrecius Family.
  • coretex666coretex666 Member EpicPosts: 3,848
    edited January 2017
    Recore said:
    50K is fail. 

    It is 2017. 
    I remember you.

    You are the one who claimed that BDO is a "success" without providing any financial information to support that claim. When I asked you what criteria you used to make that assessment, you said that it is because it went its own way with the cash shop and did not listen to all the haters who claimed that the game is now P2W or something like that. 

    Now 50k subs is a "fail" for you, even though you have no idea what the costs of the project are and what ROI would profit from 50k subs generate.




  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    edited January 2017
    Dullahan said:

     The fact that EQ sported a 65% retention rate in the early years, even after half a dozen other MMOs came out, reveals the contrarian nature of people.

    65% retention - monthly retention - was indeed very good. What does it mean though? 

    3 people start playing.
    After 1 month 1 has left, 2 remain.
    After 2 months another leaves, only 1 remains.
    After 3 months - on average - all 3 had left. 

    All gone. On average. After 3 months.

    By EQ1's 5th anniversary it was under 50%. (DAoC had launched). Still good but on average, all gone within 2 months.

    Churn is the norm. It means the game has to keep selling. Even for WoW. (100M+ accounts means a lot of people have left).

    So its not just about Pantheon selling. For if its only going to manage 65% retention - only! - it has to keep selling. And keep selling. And keep selling.

    And if sales dry up - which is the norm - then it will settle at some rump of subscribers after 6 months.
  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 36,476
    I really dont see how an old school MMO will fly well in 2017 (r whenever this will see the light of day)...Sure there is a niche market for it but will it be big enough to pay the bills?

    I'd like to discuss this,


    - It's been a long time since old school


    - Old school mindset is usually thought as old looking game with old mechanics.


    - People tend to think younger people don't have the time or the brain power to play this style.



    How do you know this style wouldn't start a new rebirth !!!!!!! 
    Anecdotal evidence. My son and his friends (all around 24 yrs old) are all former MMO players cutting their teeth on DAOC, WOW and some others.

    Their current stable of games include LOL, Overwatch and a variety of PS4 games, but no MMORPGs.

    I even tried to entice my son by giving him ESO for Christmas for his new PS4, since he really enjoyed playing Skyrim.

    He decided to start playing Witcher 3 first.

    Young people today seem to have so much more vying for their time then they did years ago, my guess is they really aren't seeking a slower paced, more in depth gaming experience.

    I'd say EVE like success is a more likely aspiration for this or most any other solid indie title.

    But a run away smash hit, little chance of that occurring IMO, too many factors lined up against it at the moment.


    "See normal people, I'm not one of them" | G-Easy & Big Sean

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    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing FO76 at the moment.

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  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919

    433,000 players at peak, yet EQ (Evercrack) was featured in Time magazine.
    I seriously doubt Pantheon will top EQ in playerbase.
    Not that it has to for it to be a success. Let's just keep things in perspective.
    100 to 200 thousand is a BIG win for this game.
    50,000 to 100,000? still a win.
     You are looking at $9  to $18 million a year in revenue.

    $9M to $18M first year? Allowing for higher initial numbers, less so sales since backers will already have paid.

    WoW's average revenue per player - when such data was available last year - was just under $11 (for sub and cash shop. Varied a little but was pretty stable).

    So continuing revenue if it retains 50-100k and is priced on a par with WoW would be $5M to $11M. (Remember even if the sub is $15 some of that is tax, whilst 3 and 6 month subs usually have a discount etc.) 
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    DMKano said:

    EQ1 is Daybreaks highest populated game they own.
    Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.  
    H1Z1 is far more populated than EQ1 - so you are mistaken.

    Pantheon is heavily based on vanilla EQ1 - which is P99 - there is no other game on the market that is closer to Pantheon than P99  - and yes I am talking about gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc...
    I would have thought DCUO was their best title. Jack Emmert being made CEO would certainly support this.  
  • ForgrimmForgrimm Member EpicPosts: 2,996
    DMKano said:
    gervaise1 said:
    DMKano said:

    EQ1 is Daybreaks highest populated game they own.
    Comparing Pantheon to P99 is like comparing Apples to Oranges.  
    H1Z1 is far more populated than EQ1 - so you are mistaken.

    Pantheon is heavily based on vanilla EQ1 - which is P99 - there is no other game on the market that is closer to Pantheon than P99  - and yes I am talking about gameplay style, pace of combat, group centric content etc...
    I would have thought DCUO was their best title. Jack Emmert being made CEO would certainly support this.  
    Not even close - Look at steam stats for DCUO, less than 4k players peak, been under 1000 concurrently since march 2015.

    Now I know that steam only shows a portion of playerbase, but the huge disparity between under 1k numbers and greater than 20k H1Z1 numbers ia pretty significant

    H1Z1 is the most popular Daybreak title by far.
    H1Z1 even made Steam's "gold" list of most popular games of 2016: http://www.cinemablend.com/games/1606820/valve-reveals-the-most-popular-steam-games-of-2016
  • Zer0KZer0K Member UncommonPosts: 68
    My friend and I agree, that, there's not much innovation in this title to help push the genre.  That being said, it's more like it's targeting a niche market now.  Old-school gamers of nostalgia seem to be the primary target.
    That's not a bad thing by any stretch, but, unfortunately it's not going to bring in tons of subs.  I'd be surprised if the game hits above 250k at its peak.
    There are some things I'd like to see this game do, but it seems a bit early to know, or likely won't happen anyways.

    With all the procedural tech coming around, it's possible to create a whole planet for a game world and have decent procedural content.  The devs can then just focus on certain areas they want to customize the content for players.  Loading screens really shouldn't be there anymore..  I'm really hating this about Pantheon.
  • MendelMendel Member EpicPosts: 3,968
    ste2000 said:
    Mendel said:
    ste2000 said:

    Common sense doesn't include an inflation rate.  Especially not an inflation rate of 800%.  (DMK's number to kitarad's number).  And this is being used for actual numbers, not potential numbers.  Some people are starting to perform calculations with these numbers in an attempt to show revenue.  And that is anticipating 400k or 500k or 1m or 1.2m customers.

    I don't have a problem with projected numbers.  I have a problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers.
    I think you do.
    My "potential" number calculation it's perfectly reasonable, and it is much closer to reality than the 50k number which is just a wishful thinking from people like you who just can't stand this kind of game and desperately wants it to crash and burn.
    I said  this is a "potential" number so many times I lost count, and "potential" doesn't mean "actual".
    It's either you don't understand the difference between potential and actual or you just conveniently decided to ignore it.

    And talking about common sense, I am not the one inflating the numbers, it's people like you deflating the numbers with no data to back that up who are in the wrong.
    I provided "historic" numbers that you can actually check yourself with google, there are no numbers that support a 50k subscription base.
    If 10 Million people went to see Star Wars 1 movie, you expect the same number to see Star Wars 2, you don't project 1 Million viewers just because you hate the saga.
    Does that make sense to you or it is still gibberish?

    And make no mistakes, Pantheon is EQ3, the unofficial successor of one of the biggest MMO IPs, with a combined fan base of well over 50k players.....how can you not understand that's a number that just doesn't make sense.
    Even now EQ + EQ2 have more than 50k subscribers, but there are also plenty of ex EQ players like me eager to play a modern version of Everquest. And what about new players that never played this kind of games, you talk like no one of the new generation will touch this game with a barge pole, which is also unrealistic.

    So don't tell me that you have problem with unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected numbers, when you are backing up a unsubstantiated, unrealistic projected number.
    The only thing that could sink this game is a launch similar to Vanguard, otherwise this game has the "potential" for 400-500k subscribers, which eventually will settle around an "actual" 200-250k, and that's a more realistic number than your 50k.

    Please.  If you want to try to pick apart my post, learn to read the post.  The numbers I used were other peoples numbers (50k = DMKano, 400k = kitarad).  I haven't offered a projected number, but if I did, it would be closer to DMKano than yours or others.

    As for a potential of 400-500k subscribers, where is this population now?  What are they doing?  What games are they playing?  Are you counting 'paid accounts' as opposed to people, and are planning for everyone maintaining 6-10 accounts?  Please don't suggest that future Pantheon players are currently playing WoW, because no one has really figured out how to 'take' customers away from Blizzard on a sustained basis.  If you can say your player base in in Game X and Game X will suffer when Pantheon releases, then I might reconsider.  I do not know where Pantheon customers are going to come from; I haven't heard a good explanation for their current habits, and how Pantheon is planning to cause a change in the marketplace.  Show me where these people are, and maybe I could be convinced.

    The post you complained about was about how the numbers are becoming inflated, without any reason.  You're trying to use a nostalgia-based argument, "they liked it before, they'll like it again", where my stance is "they liked it before, but quit and moved on".  There is an appeal for nostalgia, I understand that, but it isn't the sole foundation of a successful business.  No amount of nostalgia will make carriages, harnesses or buggy whips major sellers in the modern marketplace (all once lucrative sub-industries in both the US and UK).  Or are you waiting for zeppelin flight, still?

    Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.

  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    Zer0K said:
    My friend and I agree, that, there's not much innovation in this title to help push the genre.  That being said, it's more like it's targeting a niche market now.  Old-school gamers of nostalgia seem to be the primary target.
    That's not a bad thing by any stretch, but, unfortunately it's not going to bring in tons of subs.  I'd be surprised if the game hits above 250k at its peak.
    There are some things I'd like to see this game do, but it seems a bit early to know, or likely won't happen anyways.

    With all the procedural tech coming around, it's possible to create a whole planet for a game world and have decent procedural content.  The devs can then just focus on certain areas they want to customize the content for players.  Loading screens really shouldn't be there anymore..  I'm really hating this about Pantheon.
    It doesn't sound like you or your friend have read much about Pantheon then. There is a lot of new stuff being introduced beyond those retro or oldschool elements, which are mostly the more group-dependent and social aspects of the game.

    https://www.pantheonmmo.com/game/pantheon_difference/



  • TheocritusTheocritus Member EpicPosts: 7,734
    SO much of the EQ crowd is nostalgia......Sure we like to talk about what the game was like in 99-00, but most of us know that will never happen again......Also alot of us are just that: talk.......Im not sure where Pantheon will get its target audience from to be honest, which is why I dont think the sub numbers will be very strong....I hope they have a fall back plan for f2p conversion at some point.
  • tatertoadtatertoad Member UncommonPosts: 26
    splong said:
    Huge?  Judging by the last stream...No.
    Can they survive? maybe.

    I had been following the game for a while and when I saw that stream, it clicked for me.  Maybe it won't be "huge" but there I feel like there is some pent up demand for this type of gameplay with modern graphics, UI and some quality of life improvements (or not).
  • alivenaliven Member UncommonPosts: 346
    kitarad said:
    aliven said:
    It will be fun to watch how it die. 
    Mean and totally unnecessary
    Thats my response when "new and totally awesome savior of the genre" show up :)
  • DullahanDullahan Member EpicPosts: 4,534
    Kyleran said:
    I really dont see how an old school MMO will fly well in 2017 (r whenever this will see the light of day)...Sure there is a niche market for it but will it be big enough to pay the bills?

    I'd like to discuss this,


    - It's been a long time since old school


    - Old school mindset is usually thought as old looking game with old mechanics.


    - People tend to think younger people don't have the time or the brain power to play this style.



    How do you know this style wouldn't start a new rebirth !!!!!!! 
    Anecdotal evidence. My son and his friends (all around 24 yrs old) are all former MMO players cutting their teeth on DAOC, WOW and some others.

    Their current stable of games include LOL, Overwatch and a variety of PS4 games, but no MMORPGs.

    I even tried to entice my son by giving him ESO for Christmas for his new PS4, since he really enjoyed playing Skyrim.

    He decided to start playing Witcher 3 first.

    Young people today seem to have so much more vying for their time then they did years ago, my guess is they really aren't seeking a slower paced, more in depth gaming experience.

    I'd say EVE like success is a more likely aspiration for this or most any other solid indie title.

    But a run away smash hit, little chance of that occurring IMO, too many factors lined up against it at the moment.


    There really is nothing even remotely offering slow paced or deep gaming experience among MMORPGs.

    It's not like there were no sports, consoles games, pc titles, or other real life activities 20 years ago. Neither people nor the surrounding environment have changed. If anything, sitting around playing games is more acceptable today than it was back then. It's just that those MMOs that people pour time into no longer exist in modern form because studios went for mass appeal chasing WoW money.

    I don't think anyone (other than maybe the OP) believes a kind of game like Pantheon will draw millions of people, but the idea that it won't do well because there has been some sort of cultural shift away from them is supposition as best. People play other games, because that is what the industry believed to have highest earning potential ... until it no longer did.


  • ApexTKMApexTKM Member UncommonPosts: 334
    I laughed at the part where he said: 

    "No matter how bad you argue against Pantheon, you will have no choice but to be part of the mainstream....That's human nature."

    I'm not a hater of Pantheon its just a preference I don't care for magic fantasy oriented games with wizards, mages, gnomes, dwarfs, dragons etc. I'm more into sci-fi.

    OP needs to understand that not everyone has the same cup of tea.
    The acronym MMORPG use to mean Massive Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game.

    But the acronym MMMORPG now currently means Microscopic Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game. Kappa.
  • OzmodanOzmodan Member EpicPosts: 9,726
    Always cracks me up, people touting a game that is not out yet since they have no idea how the game will play.

    Yep it could be a good game, but let's reserve judgement until it is playable.
  • exile01exile01 Member RarePosts: 1,075
    the thing is: If pantheon was released years ago, it would have a huge following. Nowdays it has to contest with games that have 10y of content. People will scream its not finished and broken.
  • coretex666coretex666 Member EpicPosts: 3,848
    ApexTKM said:
    I laughed at the part where he said: 

    "No matter how bad you argue against Pantheon, you will have no choice but to be part of the mainstream....That's human nature."

    I'm not a hater of Pantheon its just a preference I don't care for magic fantasy oriented games with wizards, mages, gnomes, dwarfs, dragons etc. I'm more into sci-fi.

    OP needs to understand that not everyone has the same cup of tea.
    It definitely is a ridiculous quote. 
  • NycteliosNyctelios Member EpicPosts: 3,821
    tatertoad said:
    splong said:
    Huge?  Judging by the last stream...No.
    Can they survive? maybe.

    I had been following the game for a while and when I saw that stream, it clicked for me.  Maybe it won't be "huge" but there I feel like there is some pent up demand for this type of gameplay with modern graphics, UI and some quality of life improvements (or not).
    Agree.

    I don't get why people just play things on the millions or so. Why does it matter? Do you really think a MMO would be less enjoyable if you had less servers?

    Millions, thousands, whatever - as long the population holds the necessary for the game mechanics / events nothing else matters. As long the game pays itself and give the devs money so their kids can go to college who cares?

    I'd rather wait longer looking for a group to fulfill a certain quest but with players enjoying their experience than having to swim through an ocean of brats spitting toxicity on map channel and making sure to waste their time in events just to fuck up and scream out their lungs how much they don't care about what they are doing.

    This "won't play this because there are not millions playing it" mentality is killing many good games - and it follows the same group in which only plays games on launch. Cancerous type of players, if you ask me.

    Why does this game needs millions and need to be "the next big hit"?

    Shouldn't be more important it's quality and if you enjoy playing it? 

    This kind of speech sounds like you are playing something to be apart of a group, to point out the others not part of the group and tell them how much special you are instead of playing or enjoying something because you like.
    Steam ID Discord ID: Night # 6102 - GoG ID - 

    Current playing: 
    Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn - Shadowbringers; Genshin Impact

    "There is a fine line between consideration and hesitation. The former is wisdom, the latter is fear." Izaro Phrecius, Holy Emperor of the Eternal Empire, Last of Royal Phrecius Family.
  • SavageHorizonSavageHorizon Member RarePosts: 3,432
    edited January 2017
    Pantheon doesn't need a huge following, it will run along nicely. Seems some are angry because it hasn't disappear from the radar and it's looking more and more likely to like the team will pull it off. 

    Don't like the game and who it caters to then go play all the other mmo's out there.  

    As to the Op, making threads like this helps no one and just brings the haters out in troves. Pantheon won't be huge and I doubt it's followers want it to be huge. 




  • delete5230delete5230 Member EpicPosts: 6,528
    ApexTKM said:
    I laughed at the part where he said: 

    "No matter how bad you argue against Pantheon, you will have no choice but to be part of the mainstream....That's human nature."

    I'm not a hater of Pantheon its just a preference I don't care for magic fantasy oriented games with wizards, mages, gnomes, dwarfs, dragons etc. I'm more into sci-fi.

    OP needs to understand that not everyone has the same cup of tea.
    Sure not EVERYONE, that would be silly for anyone to think everyone.

    If the game is totally out of your range to play, sure you wouldn't......There are some that are obsessed over the board game Monopoly..... Their not playing Pantheon...Don't blame them :)


    This statement is more for the people with grudges and spite, just to be spiteful.....Again, I don't blame them either that's just another useless emotion people go through......I'll see them in game, and will have fun together :) 




       
  • MardukkMardukk Member RarePosts: 2,221
    edited January 2017
    Did OP say his post with a Donald Trump voice?

    Great idea to argue about what is considered huge or big or whatever...  We should all be happy when any MMORPG is released...as the genre is on life support.

    I'm a bit surprised at the push back against those that want an older style MMO after 10+ years of no freedom, no risk vs reward linear quest hub themeparks.  I suspect there are a number of contrarians that frequent this site.
  • SavageHorizonSavageHorizon Member RarePosts: 3,432
    DMKano said:
    DMKano said:
    Dullahan said:
    Tiamat64 said:

    Then basically you agree with him, because by backing up Kano he's already saying 50k is the likely forecast at this time anyways.

    500k though.... Did Everquest even have that many?  Remember that people have to actually know about the existance of this game and care enough to look at it before they will actually buy it.  How far do you think the game's marketting department will be able to reach?  How many people do you think will look at the name, "Pantheon", and decide to spend money to try it out?  This isn't an F2P or non-subscription B2P game either (unless that changed?) so getting that many people to open up their wallets for it will be all that much harder.
    People will be able to play the trial before purchasing.

    EQ topped out around 500k 13 years ago back when most people still didn't have the internet.
    I remember seeing graphs that showed various game populations. As I remember it Everquest topped out at around 700k. 450k is certainly verifiable.
    700K never happened for EQ1, the got close to 500K

    if there was such a huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today:

    - P99 wouldn't have around 1200 players at peak, it would be in tens of thousands
    - There would be a at least half a dozen EQ1 "clones" in the works right now

    Neither is happening - you know why?

    Because there isn't 450k players who'd play EQ1 type game today - that's why, people grew up, they have full time jobs and families.

    EQ1 required vast amounts of time to play - this kind of time commitment is simply unmanageable today for a huge number of players who used to play EQ1 17 years ago.

    Priorities change - it's normal. 

    Yep, cause people back when EQ1 was big didn't have jobs either, mmhmm.

    People act like times have changed, that people didn't have jobs then when we all know that's further from the truth.  Did EQ require a lot of time? Hell yes it did but it also was one of the few games that gave players that sense of accomplishment, something that is missing from MMO's for the past many years.

    I think you're wrong with when you comment on about the whole huge demand for EQ1 vanilla game today.  Since so many people put so much stock in graphics, if a game released with similar gameplay aspects as EQ with updated graphics, you'd be extremely surprised just how big of a following it would hold. 

    On a side note, with all due respect Kano, why the hell is every single post of yours, regardless of the topic at hand, always negative? Being negative about everything make you feel good?  I can't say I have ever seen someone so negative on game forums(and I read a lot of different forums) than you.  Every time I see your name in a thread, I can pretty much guaran damn tee its going to be something negative.  Is that your role on these forums?  

    If you interpret my posts as "negative" that is your doing.

    Reality just is, positive and negative are descriptions that people place on events for easy filing within their memory banks. Little boxes with labels.

    I can show you that my posts are not negative, that negativity is a label you make and put on them.



    Oh yeah,  you are a backer lol. 




  • VesaviusVesavius Member RarePosts: 7,905
    Hyping this game like this and setting unrealistic expectations of it's mass success will only hurt it.

    It's a niche title. And that's ok. Don't get carried away.
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