The logical fallacy here is the belief that funding somehow equates to a healthy gauge of the audience.
They only had 10k backers. Those also include people that bought multiple accounts. Those are also the most dedicated fans of the game. Those are also the people that you just gave multiple sparks of life to and even the ones which only received a single spark will not have to give any more revenue to the company until a year AFTER launch.. which is saying 2.5 to 3 years from now.
I mean.. just think that through. Everyone who was really interested in the game already ponied up. It was only 10k (maybe a bit more now that the KS ended) and ALL of those biggest followers have already purchased gameplay for the next 2.5 to 3 years.
Does that seem like a sound base to invest in?
They have 10k. That is like 3 servers full in he old days, that is with nothing to show and looking at other KS games they will snowball as they develop more. They also have 30k registered on their site. Again, funding with 10k is a pretty good market test. Most companies done get that kind of pitch info, but they would be happy with it. I think people underestimate how well 10k paid customers sounds to investors. If 10k are happy to buy words imaging me how many will come in near alpha or beta etc.
Yeah.. 3 server full if everyone logs in at the same time all the time... which is kind of a silly argument to make. And these servers are supposed to hold 100,000 people at a time...and they are launching with at least 2 (US and EU)
And again you are missing the point. The 10k people are paid up for the next 2.5 to 3 YEARS. Those are lost to an investor. Those are the most dedicated fans... and no serious revenue will come from them for YEARS.
This is the issue with crowdfunded games in general. It's not unique to COE. They get all the money from their biggest fans years before their game launches and won't see another dollar from most for a year or more AFTER the game launches.
This is NOT an attractive situation for an investor...
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Hopefully COE will give me something to do again. I like to explore not just fight another mob or dozen just to have something to do. The game I play now is another grind fest that makes you grind forever to get upgrades. Not really my thing. Plus it forces PvP on players which again is not what I like to do. I can call myself a PVE player all day long but I love to just get out there and explore. Yes I like shiny new equipment just like everyone else, but that is not the biggest reason I play.
SC manages to keep investors paying. Some even pay subs now. Others still have to have every ship in the game. If COE comes up with additional ways to milk, I mean inspire investors to give money for digital items they could enhance their revenue, they still have a list of stuff that funding is needed for.
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
The logical fallacy here is the belief that funding somehow equates to a healthy gauge of the audience.
They only had 10k backers. Those also include people that bought multiple accounts. Those are also the most dedicated fans of the game. Those are also the people that you just gave multiple sparks of life to and even the ones which only received a single spark will not have to give any more revenue to the company until a year AFTER launch.. which is saying 2.5 to 3 years from now.
I mean.. just think that through. Everyone who was really interested in the game already ponied up. It was only 10k (maybe a bit more now that the KS ended) and ALL of those biggest followers have already purchased gameplay for the next 2.5 to 3 years.
Does that seem like a sound base to invest in?
They have 10k. That is like 3 servers full in he old days, that is with nothing to show and looking at other KS games they will snowball as they develop more. They also have 30k registered on their site. Again, funding with 10k is a pretty good market test. Most companies done get that kind of pitch info, but they would be happy with it. I think people underestimate how well 10k paid customers sounds to investors. If 10k are happy to buy words imaging me how many will come in near alpha or beta etc.
Yeah.. 3 server full if everyone logs in at the same time all the time... which is kind of a silly argument to make. And these servers are supposed to hold 100,000 people at a time...and they are launching with at least 2 (US and EU)
And again you are missing the point. The 10k people are paid up for the next 2.5 to 3 YEARS. Those are lost to an investor. Those are the most dedicated fans... and no serious revenue will come from them for YEARS.
This is the issue with crowdfunded games in general. It's not unique to COE. They get all the money from their biggest fans years before their game launches and won't see another dollar from most for a year or more AFTER the game launches.
This is NOT an attractive situation for an investor...
Just using a few examples of MMOs that have continued to progress in development, your argument looks incorrect. Maybe games that don't progress don't do well, or maybe I need to look beyond the these few, but just looking at them it looks like a pretty good up trend in money and backers. Crowfall KS end $1.76 mil Crowfall now $7.20 mil CU KS end $2.23 mil CU now $4.10mil SC KS end $2.13 mil SC now $100mil SOTA KS $1.9mil SOTA now $8.9mil
And 3 of those games haven't hit beta phase where they really start to show things to potential customers. A lot of KS backers do keep paying in. Most KS games have a store/upgrade function and players love slowly upgrading to higher tiers over time blue light special K-Mart style lol. Their backer numbers have both gone up as well. 10k is a solid start since most KS's trend upward as long as the game shows advancement.
People have to pitch products based on "I think they will buy this because" with nothing to show for it. Here you have a platform where you can say people already paid for this when it was at its lowest point, we expect nothing but growth from this point forward. Then you toss in these above games and things look better yet. Again, KS is a solid market test and it can create a solid marketing pitch to more investors both big and small, for now. If the big games dont come out, which the "beta purgatory" trend shows happens more than I'm comfortable with, then the reputation of a KS game will shift and the platform will be less viable. This is why I often say the future of the genre depends on the biggest crowd-funded games doing well. I think this niche is too small and been mistreated too long to be able to survive something like Shroud and SC flopping.
All those titles had investment BEFORE the Kickstarter. Crowfall for instance ALREADY had $2.35M raised before they even started the Kickstarter. So when you say things like they had $1.76M at the end of KS and $7.2M now you are being blatantly disingenuous. CU was funded by $2M of Marc's own cash...
The reason they all had investments is because they were all fronted by superstars of the genre... who have a track record and proven appeal beyond the small "niche".
Also, note that NONE of them have launched (though I backed each...) and again, the issue is not just getting to launch, the issue I described above and you avoided twice now is that these games will launch with the vast majority of 1st year revenue already accounted for and spent. SOTA for instance... I have episodes 1,2 and 3 already paid for. Garriott won't see another dime from me until 2020 (if they get that far). Crowfall, my account had 6 freaking YEARS of paid sub...
SOE people already have their sparks.. in some cases quite a few and each of these should last about a year...
Anytime you spend all your revenue and then still have to provide a service for a year (or more) after that revenue is spent is a really, really bad business model.
Hey I have backed each and every game on your list. I'm hoping they all turn out great... but I wouldn't invest 6 or 7 figures into any of them right now and expect a return on that investment.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
I didn't think the pre money was counted in any of the total money, maybe I'm wrong on that. Im more sure with CSE, I don't recall a 2m bump from MJ money being added to that total so they might have another 2m on top of that. COE has pre money as well, but I'm not sure how much.
MJ wrote that if the game got funded he would put $2M into the project with another investor putting $3M into the project.
COE had 500k of their own that funded the game so far.
Crowfall used to separate pledges and funding, a while ago they had $2.7M in pledges and $6.6M in funding. Source. Now they just list total funding and registered people and have $7.2M.
Iselin: And the next person who says "but it's a business, they need to make money" can just go fuck yourself.
One of the things that seems to be misunderstood is the difference between funding and return. The funding pays for developing and deploying a game, while the return is the total amount that sales bring in. In almost every case, the revenue is expected to be at least twice that of that funded, if not more.
Using this simple arrangement, a game with a development budget of $10 million is going into the deal with the idea of making at least $20 million in revenue. Where is a game like CoE, which is admittedly focused on a niche market, going to make twice what they invest? Sales? Subscriptions? Cash Shop? Other revenue sources? Maybe this will be the first game with a $500 box charge and $250 minimum cash shop price.
The thing that worries me about crowdfunding is the notion that the developers are already counting a huge portion of their $10 million funding as revenue. Get $10m. Spend $2m. Take $8m and go to lunch. I've just not seen enough crowdfunded projects collect $10 million and spend $10 million on developing the game to see beyond the concerns. A game like Star Citizen with $100+ million in the development treasury just scares me. I don't think anyone could spend $100 million on game development, no matter who's ordering lunch.
This kind of discussion always makes me wonder. What would P.T. Barnum's kickstarter project be like? The parade might be fantastic, but the circus would still smell of elephant.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
I think investment is a dynamic process. Once they show progress with longer working in-game demos showing more substance I'm sure more people will buy in. A lot of people are just lurking at the moment waiting to see an actual game first. Once people have confidence that they can do what they say they want to do, more will come.
From the viewpoint of investment, early investments carry higher risks and higher profits, while later investments carry less risk and less profit. In other words, someone investing in a crowdfunded game will get a smaller share of profit the more it starts looking like a ready game.
A month ago I even made a comparison between two scenarios: investing one million dollars into Chronicles of Elyria and investing one million dollars into real estate.
Another issue which no one seems to give a serious thought. Indie companies and their projects are not totally immune from the potential influence of larger companies. Over a decade ago I was really hyped and waited many years for an awesome new game called Project Offset. After two or three years of game development Intel took over the indie company with a cash grab and cancelled Project Offset.
I suspect the whole Derek Smart affair about Star Citizen last summer might have been groundwork for a takeover. I've been visiting Derek Smart's blog website 2-3 times a year for the past ten years and know that he had taken over a fantasy MMORPG in the past, which was predated by a period of assaults on the "incompetence" of the previous management responsible for that fantasy MMORPG.
"Beyond the due date I don’t think it’s fair to get overly critical of COE because, like Kickstarter MMOs before it, much of it is still ideas on paper. Many of those ideas haven’t been attempted since MUD’s which makes them both exciting and unpredictable. For me that is another part of the allure. It turns out I love watching MMOs develop as much as I love watching them evolve post launch."
Tim, I relate to this part of your commentary.
It seems so many folks want to perfect the use of their Crystal Ball. And, yet I have no idea if this or that project will be successful. I am happy enough just supporting those projects wherein I like the ideas. I can stand to be wrong. If nothing else, the past has proven this.
Another issue which no one seems to give a serious thought. Indie companies and their projects are not totally immune from the potential influence of larger companies. Over a decade ago I was really hyped and waited many years for an awesome new game called Project Offset. After two or three years of game development Intel took over the indie company with a cash grab and cancelled Project Offset.
Aw, Project Offset, I'm still sad they cancelled. That game could've/would've/should've been epic.
As I recall, Intel bought their engine, but later cancelled their designs and scrapped it, thereby also scrapping the game project. I saw posts from the PO devs years later saying they approached Intel in an effort to buy back the IP, but Intel wouldn't play ball.
I had such high hopes for that game. On the bright side, that's where I discovered Khang Le. He did a pair of tutorial videos of his work while he was on the project and that really got me interested in art.
To further my point about how pre-selling your product to your biggest fans is a DETRACTION for investors. here is a little nugget from Shroud of the Avatar talking about how no publisher would pick up their novel BECAUSE THEY HAD ALREADY SOLD IT TO THE MOST LIKELY PURCHASERS:
------------------------------------------- We regret that some of our backers feel slighted about not automatically receiving the revised and expanded version of Blade of the Avatar as part of their original pledge rewards. It is important for you to understand that all of the publishers we approached refused to publish Blade of the Avatar in its original form since we had already distributed electronic versions of that novel to over 50,000 backers, thus greatly diminishing the potential sales of a mass market print and ebook version. https://shroudoftheavatar.com/?p=59607#comment-6540
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
Comments
And these servers are supposed to hold 100,000 people at a time...and they are launching with at least 2 (US and EU)
And again you are missing the point. The 10k people are paid up for the next 2.5 to 3 YEARS. Those are lost to an investor. Those are the most dedicated fans... and no serious revenue will come from them for YEARS.
This is the issue with crowdfunded games in general. It's not unique to COE. They get all the money from their biggest fans years before their game launches and won't see another dollar from most for a year or more AFTER the game launches.
This is NOT an attractive situation for an investor...
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
"We all do the best we can based on life experience, point of view, and our ability to believe in ourselves." - Naropa "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." SR Covey
The reason they all had investments is because they were all fronted by superstars of the genre... who have a track record and proven appeal beyond the small "niche".
Also, note that NONE of them have launched (though I backed each...) and again, the issue is not just getting to launch, the issue I described above and you avoided twice now is that these games will launch with the vast majority of 1st year revenue already accounted for and spent. SOTA for instance... I have episodes 1,2 and 3 already paid for. Garriott won't see another dime from me until 2020 (if they get that far). Crowfall, my account had 6 freaking YEARS of paid sub...
SOE people already have their sparks.. in some cases quite a few and each of these should last about a year...
Anytime you spend all your revenue and then still have to provide a service for a year (or more) after that revenue is spent is a really, really bad business model.
Hey I have backed each and every game on your list. I'm hoping they all turn out great... but I wouldn't invest 6 or 7 figures into any of them right now and expect a return on that investment.
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018
COE had 500k of their own that funded the game so far.
Crowfall used to separate pledges and funding, a while ago they had $2.7M in pledges and $6.6M in funding. Source. Now they just list total funding and registered people and have $7.2M.
Using this simple arrangement, a game with a development budget of $10 million is going into the deal with the idea of making at least $20 million in revenue. Where is a game like CoE, which is admittedly focused on a niche market, going to make twice what they invest? Sales? Subscriptions? Cash Shop? Other revenue sources? Maybe this will be the first game with a $500 box charge and $250 minimum cash shop price.
The thing that worries me about crowdfunding is the notion that the developers are already counting a huge portion of their $10 million funding as revenue. Get $10m. Spend $2m. Take $8m and go to lunch. I've just not seen enough crowdfunded projects collect $10 million and spend $10 million on developing the game to see beyond the concerns. A game like Star Citizen with $100+ million in the development treasury just scares me. I don't think anyone could spend $100 million on game development, no matter who's ordering lunch.
This kind of discussion always makes me wonder. What would P.T. Barnum's kickstarter project be like? The parade might be fantastic, but the circus would still smell of elephant.
Logic, my dear, merely enables one to be wrong with great authority.
From the viewpoint of investment, early investments carry higher risks and higher profits, while later investments carry less risk and less profit. In other words, someone investing in a crowdfunded game will get a smaller share of profit the more it starts looking like a ready game.
A month ago I even made a comparison between two scenarios: investing one million dollars into Chronicles of Elyria and investing one million dollars into real estate.
* more info, screenshots and videos here
I suspect the whole Derek Smart affair about Star Citizen last summer might have been groundwork for a takeover. I've been visiting Derek Smart's blog website 2-3 times a year for the past ten years and know that he had taken over a fantasy MMORPG in the past, which was predated by a period of assaults on the "incompetence" of the previous management responsible for that fantasy MMORPG.
* more info, screenshots and videos here
Tim, I relate to this part of your commentary.
It seems so many folks want to perfect the use of their Crystal Ball. And, yet I have no idea if this or that project will be successful. I am happy enough just supporting those projects wherein I like the ideas. I can stand to be wrong. If nothing else, the past has proven this.
So, best of luck to Soulbound and CoE!
As I recall, Intel bought their engine, but later cancelled their designs and scrapped it, thereby also scrapping the game project.
I saw posts from the PO devs years later saying they approached Intel in an effort to buy back the IP, but Intel wouldn't play ball.
I had such high hopes for that game. On the bright side, that's where I discovered Khang Le. He did a pair of tutorial videos of his work while he was on the project and that really got me interested in art.
-------------------------------------------
We regret that some of our backers feel slighted about not automatically receiving the revised and expanded version of Blade of the Avatar as part of their original pledge rewards. It is important for you to understand that all of the publishers we approached refused to publish Blade of the Avatar in its original form since we had already distributed electronic versions of that novel to over 50,000 backers, thus greatly diminishing the potential sales of a mass market print and ebook version. https://shroudoftheavatar.com/?p=59607#comment-6540
All time classic MY NEW FAVORITE POST! (Keep laying those bricks)
"I should point out that no other company has shipped out a beta on a disc before this." - Official Mortal Online Lead Community Moderator
Proudly wearing the Harbinger badge since Dec 23, 2017.
Coined the phrase "Role-Playing a Development Team" January 2018
"Oddly Slap is the main reason I stay in these forums." - Mystichaze April 9th 2018