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It's May 3rd! Where is the Kickstarter?

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  • holdenhamletholdenhamlet Member EpicPosts: 3,761
    edited May 2016
    jozeph said:
    Scot said:
    In todays gaming it seems nothing is P2W. You might as well sell a big crown and a title "The King". And still some people would say that's not pay to win. :D
    How is being the king, winning the game? It doesn't give you godlike powers. It doesn't even make you stronger.

    In other games the king would be an NPC. In this game kings, merchants, bankers, guards, ... will all be players. Which should make this game a lot less static. Someone has to be the first kings. The two players backing the campaign for $10K are more than welcome to it. They are helping a lot to make this game being made. I'm looking forward to finding out how long they will be able to hold on to their crown at launch. Only someone very good at the game of thrones will be able to stay in power.
    Yep.  Not only that, but you're only king for so long.  Someone is probably going to kill you, and if not you'll die of old age in this game and no longer be king.

    The P2W argument is invalid with this game since any perceived advantages are temporary.

    Anyway, just checked the kickstarter and they are about halfway to goal after only a couple of days!  Looking good.
  • PepeqPepeq Member UncommonPosts: 1,977
    Wouldn't it be interesting if kickstarter just held the money in trust and only released the funds IF and WHEN the goals were met?

    Wouldn't that contractor you hired to redo the roof just love to be paid in full before he/she ever touched it?  What real incentive do they have to actually do the work, do it on time, and do it well?

  • holdenhamletholdenhamlet Member EpicPosts: 3,761
    edited May 2016
    Pepeq said:
    Wouldn't it be interesting if kickstarter just held the money in trust and only released the funds IF and WHEN the goals were met?

    Wouldn't that contractor you hired to redo the roof just love to be paid in full before he/she ever touched it?  What real incentive do they have to actually do the work, do it on time, and do it well?

    Well, the thing is people need the money to actually make the products so that wouldn't work.

    Kickstarter is not some bonus reward you get for finishing a product.
    Post edited by holdenhamlet on
  • jozephjozeph Member UncommonPosts: 47
    Pepeq said:
    Wouldn't it be interesting if kickstarter just held the money in trust and only released the funds IF and WHEN the goals were met?

    Wouldn't that contractor you hired to redo the roof just love to be paid in full before he/she ever touched it?  What real incentive do they have to actually do the work, do it on time, and do it well?

    The contractor that redid my roof wanted part of the money in advance and i had to wait until they finally had some time to do it. They delivered what they promised, but i'm not 100% satisfied.

    Yes, plenty of companies out there that make games and after a game is finished they sell it to players. There are a lot of MMORPGs out there that have been made that way. You can start and play them immediately. How cool is that?

    I'm backing the CoE kickstarter campaign because i want this game made. If the campaign doesn't reach 900K then the game will not be made. Games made by big corporations are games of which the corporations expect to earn a good profit. They look around what kind of game sell well and make a similar game with a few new things that can be used in marketing.

    CoE has been in development for some time. The devs have spend a lot of time and money on it already. The money from the kickstarter won't be enough to finish the game. They will get other investors when those investors see that there are players wanting to play this game.

    Will the game be as good as i hope it to be? I don't know. Plenty of kickstarter video game campaigns have problems to deliver as promised. Not because they don't work hard to make the game, but because they promise to much and underestimate how much work they will have to actually make the game. I've backed a campaign that had to switch engine, i've backed a campaign that promised to many stretch goals, i've backed two campaigns who lost their artist and can't find a new one.

    If you wan't this game to be made then back this campaign for the amount of money you are willing to risk on it. It's ok not to back. If the game get's made you can still play it in a few years.




  • psiicpsiic Member RarePosts: 1,617
    edited May 2016
    Pepeq said:
    Wouldn't it be interesting if kickstarter just held the money in trust and only released the funds IF and WHEN the goals were met?

    Wouldn't that contractor you hired to redo the roof just love to be paid in full before he/she ever touched it?  What real incentive do they have to actually do the work, do it on time, and do it well?

    I totally agree and always say no more, then I get sucked in and back the next damn game anyway. I am addicted and it really pisses me off. 

    P.S. Got myself so riled thinking about it and how I feel lied to and cheated every time I back a game and I just went and canceled my pledge because of it. Actually feel pretty good, just saying NO.
  • YanocchiYanocchi Member UncommonPosts: 661
    jozeph said:

    CoE has been in development for some time. The devs have spend a lot of time and money on it already. The money from the kickstarter won't be enough to finish the game. They will get other investors when those investors see that there are players wanting to play this game.



    Investor mentality probably works quite differently than we imagine in this case. For a potential investor it may not be a good thing at all if there are too many Kickstarter backers. Those people have already spent their money and might not spend more until their sparks of life run out 10-14 months after the game launch. An investor would have to consider whether there will be a sufficient number of completely new people to pay in the future and thus recuperate the expenses of development and bring a positive return on investment. Potential investors may not look favorably on the fact that Soulbound Studios sold out the game download + one spark of life at 50% discount for early birds and 35% discount to others with the $25 and $35 Kickstarter pledges.

    There is a big risk that most people interested in the game have already backed it, while other semi-interested people backed it to get the hefty discounts, and there isn't necessarily a sufficiently big supply of consumers ready to join in later and pay the $50 price when the game is released. If CoE was to get a considerable investor, it would come at the expense of some heavy demands concerning monetization or game design. Investors would want to minimize the development costs and maximize the profit. Jeromy Walsh has already expressed a desire to make the game not for profit but because he wants to see such a game himself, which would further contradict with investor goals. A very ambitious game like CoE developed for a rather niche audience may not be an ideal investment.


    To be realistic/cynical, some investors or big publishers might be mostly interested in a scenario in which CoE fails during the later phases of its production, so that they could come and pick it up for minimal expenses, finish the development at low costs and release it as a cash cow. Some people have suspected that Derek Smart raised a storm against Star Citizen with an agenda like this in mind.


    Baldur's Gate Online - Video Trailer
    * more info, screenshots and videos here

  • jozephjozeph Member UncommonPosts: 47
    Yanocchi said:
    For a potential investor it may not be a good thing at all if there are too many Kickstarter backers. Those people have already spent their money and might not spend more until their sparks of life run out 10-14 months after the game launch.
    Most people don't back kickstarter campaigns. There will still be a lot of players who buy at launch and beyond.
  • YanocchiYanocchi Member UncommonPosts: 661
    The CoE Kickstarter itself will probably go strong until next Monday but then it will slow down. For now it should go strong because there are still plenty of early bird rewards left and CoE will capture the imagination of some "week-end warriors" who go online from Friday to Sunday and discover the crowdfunding campaign. So far almost two-thirds of backers have backed for early bird pledges. Next week early bird rewards will be depleted and people will no longer be in a rush to pledge as soon as possible. Maybe the campaign will pick up dramatically during the final week, though.




    Baldur's Gate Online - Video Trailer
    * more info, screenshots and videos here

  • TimberhickTimberhick Member UncommonPosts: 554
    jozeph said:
    Scot said:
    In todays gaming it seems nothing is P2W. You might as well sell a big crown and a title "The King". And still some people would say that's not pay to win. :D
    How is being the king, winning the game? It doesn't give you godlike powers. It doesn't even make you stronger.

    In other games the king would be an NPC. In this game kings, merchants, bankers, guards, ... will all be players. Which should make this game a lot less static. Someone has to be the first kings. The two players backing the campaign for $10K are more than welcome to it. They are helping a lot to make this game being made. I'm looking forward to finding out how long they will be able to hold on to their crown at launch. Only someone very good at the game of thrones will be able to stay in power.
    Yep.  Not only that, but you're only king for so long.  Someone is probably going to kill you, and if not you'll die of old age in this game and no longer be king.

    The P2W argument is invalid with this game since any perceived advantages are temporary.

    Anyway, just checked the kickstarter and they are about halfway to goal after only a couple of days!  Looking good.
    Man wouldn't it be cool if they had some kind of system in place that allowed you to bequeath what you got to your offspring?

    Oh wait....
  • VucarVucar Member UncommonPosts: 311
    I came across unnecessarily harsh in my last post so i apologize for that. Also I wasn't referring to you Asmodeus regarding the p2w comments, but others in this thread. 

    You would be right that headstart would be a huge advantage - if there were limitless mob spawns to farm gold coins during those 3 months, but there aren't.

    You would be right that headstart would be a huge advantage - if there were global safe-zone storages that you could horde things away without ever risk losing them, but there aren't.

    I agree with Kyleran - there will be an impact from the headstart, but its not anything that can't be overcome.
  • YanocchiYanocchi Member UncommonPosts: 661
    jozeph said:
    Yanocchi said:
    For a potential investor it may not be a good thing at all if there are too many Kickstarter backers. Those people have already spent their money and might not spend more until their sparks of life run out 10-14 months after the game launch.
    Most people don't back kickstarter campaigns. There will still be a lot of players who buy at launch and beyond.

    You should consider this from an investor's viewpoint. An investor can either try to make a high-risk early investment to get a good deal with a company which is still uncertain of their success, or make an investment with a lower risk later but probably get a bad deal because the company will already smell success.

    The first year or two after launch would obviously go into recuperating the losses of game production. Even in an optimistic scenario, it may be no earlier than 2018-2019 when the invested capital is recovered and the game starts to bring some profit. Will the game still remain popular and generate steady profit in 2019-2020 or will another company come up with some product that will take away the hype and many players? It feels like investments in MMO business need quick and high return because hype and popularity of individual games comes and goes very quickly.

    Everything also needs to be weighed with other investment opportunities in mind. Is a game like CoE a better investment than something else? Let me provide a very simplified example with investor A and investor B. Investor A puts their money in CoE, while investor B makes a rather straightforward investment (into real estate property) that any person with enough money can easily do.

    In July 2016 investor A invests $1 million dollars into CoE with a promise of getting 33% of all the profits coming from CoE (if Kickstarter only generates 900k and other investments are one million). All of the investment sinks into game production and the total budget for the game becomes $3 million. Let's say the game is produced and launched succesfully on that small budget but remains rough on the edges and lacks some of the important ambitious features that would allow it to shine.

    In July 2017 CoE enters alpha/beta tests available only to people who have already payed for the game in Kickstarter, generating no profit.

    In July 2018 the game is oficially launched and 100,000 new players buy the game + one spark of life at a retail price of $50, bringing $5 million dollar profit. A big portion of that revenue would be spent on maintenance and improving the game or otherwise players would start criticising the lack of promised features and polish on existing game content. Let's say the company and investors decide to invest only $2 million dollars from the profit that year into further development and maintenance, dividing $3 million profit between them to calm the investors. Investor A gets their $1 million back.

    In July 2019, 100,000 player characters (+ Kickstarter backers) die from old age and 100,000 of them get a new $30 spark of life, bringing $3 million profit. Maybe another 50,000 new players join to replace the ones who quit, bringing additional $2.5 million profit. With a new $5.5 million annual profit the company spends another $2.5 million polishing and patching the game and maintaining the company infrastructure, employees and hardware. Investors get $3 million and investor A gets $1 million from that pot.

    In this best case scenario investor A gets +$1 million profit three years after the investment in CoE if the game is developed succesfully and super cost-efficiently within 24 months, launches succesfully with 100,000 completely new players and 100,000 players renew their sparks of life after the first year, and then 50,000 new players appear when the game enters its second year. However, in the worst case scenario investor A could loose even the initial capital. The most realistic scenario is that investor A would have to be very patient and forget about any profit for the first three years after investment because nearly all revenue during the first two years after launch would go into improving the game and getting back the initial capital. It would be closer to July 2020 when all of the initial capital is returned and some profit is made. It is unrealistic to expect an ambitious $3 million MMO game based on Unreal Engine 4/CryEngine 3 engine without a free-to-play model to attract and retain 150,000 paying players with total development costs of only $3 million. It would take a substantial further investment to improve the game and keep the players interested for longer than two years.

    Also, the more money Kickstarter brings, the less % of profit any new investor coming with $1 million gets in the future.


    For comparison, here is a rather straightforward investment (into real estate property) that any person with enough money can easily do. In 2016 investor B invests $1 million dollars into real estate with a solid 5% annual return of investment (or 9% return of investment with a slightly higher risk by relying heavily on mortgage loans). Three years later investor B has $150k profit (or $270k profit with the 9% alternative) and sells the real estate for $1.2 million. Investor B gets +$350k profit (or +$470k) three years after the investment. There is no risk of getting lower profit because this is how it is in real life right now with real estate investments (and it has only become better and better since 2012 with banks lowering their mortgage loan interest rates).


    The point is, why take a risky gamble on some MMO game when there is almost no risk with some other types of investments which bring nice profits.



    Baldur's Gate Online - Video Trailer
    * more info, screenshots and videos here

  • jozephjozeph Member UncommonPosts: 47
    They told this on the kickstarter comments:
    Beyond this funding we have contributed $500K of our own funds and have $500K committed from friends & family. After that we'll look at other options for funding, including private investors, but we would sure love for our only requirements be to please the fans.

  • YanocchiYanocchi Member UncommonPosts: 661
    jozeph said:
    They told this on the kickstarter comments:
    Beyond this funding we have contributed $500K of our own funds and have $500K committed from friends & family. After that we'll look at other options for funding, including private investors, but we would sure love for our only requirements be to please the fans.


    It's best if they view CoE as a milk cow that is kept in the family for a whole lifespan and not as a bull that is grown and sold for meat very quickly. By this I mean that they resist the temptation to get their $500k personal investment back as soon as possible at the expense of allocating money into post-development when the game begins to generate income, and that CoE is really designed to provide livelihood for them over ten or more years like it is implied with the concept of main story unfolding over ten years. If this is the case, they could become one of those rare game companies that actually invest really well into post-development for many years even after launch.

    Baldur's Gate Online - Video Trailer
    * more info, screenshots and videos here

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