Quantcast

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?

HelleriHelleri Member UncommonPosts: 930

Searching on google trends I found that virtually everything I could think of relating to what people have been looking for with MMORPG (the genre in general and many top popular games of the past) has been on the declines since 2006-2009.

 

Now, what this shows strictly is that the number of people searching through google or google subsidiaries (like youtube) and affiliates for topics related to MMORPG has been dropping in recent years by a lot. As has news and articles on the subject (both are searchable through this statistic look up service google provides).

 

So, I thought...If players are not searching for for MMORPG to play. What are they looking for? Well luckily google trends also has a statistic comparison feature. So, I started cross referencing every genre I could think of that is played online with MMORPG. Things like RTS are relatively stable through out the years and far under searched  compared to MMORPG. But, eventually I hit on a statistic comparison I thought was interesting.

Just as MMORPG are reaching the bottom of the interest curve. MOBA have been on the rise. Searching Big MMORPG (as stated above) showed a general fall off in interest from searches in recent years...So, would searching for MOBA and MOBA-like games show a general up trend in interest?

Turns out...yeah. Exactly that seems to be happening. It would appear (just according to google) that interest within the larger MMO realm is steering away from MMORPG and toward MOBA. Now I just used big name examples here as I ran a lot of searches and I don't want to do all the work of saving and uploading those, lol. But it seems clear that since about 2009 MMORPG have been down trending in general interest and almost exactly as that is happening MOBA are begining to uptrend.

 

But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

And, MOBA (as well as, MOBA-like) games dominate their list.

 

I admit there is a lot of possibility here. Data and the interpretation of data are pretty far removed things. My interpretation of this data could be way off the mark. And, there could be plenty more data to be looked at that I didn't even think about which may absolutely crush this idea. So, what do you all think about this?

 

image

«1345

Comments

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    No image
  • RobokappRobokapp Member RarePosts: 6,206

    MOBAs won't replace MMOs anymore than shooters will replace city-building games.

     

     

    image

  • thinktank001thinktank001 Member UncommonPosts: 2,144
    Originally posted by Helleri

    But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

     

     

    I would honestly like to ask why do you believe that MMORPGs and MOBAs compete for the same type of player?  

     

    Quoting super data is only a bit worse than using wiki as being a factual source.      

  • HelleriHelleri Member UncommonPosts: 930
    Originally posted by thinktank001
    Originally posted by Helleri

    But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

     

     

    I would honestly like to ask why do you believe that MMORPGs and MOBAs compete for the same type of player?  

     

    Quoting super data is only a bit worse than using wiki as being a factual source.      

    1) They are both Multiplay Online Games. And, so I think it is reasonable to assume that anything withing the multiplayer online genre is going to be competing for a larger slice within that sphere.

     

    2) Many MMORPG end up like MOBA (after they have had their run and new MMORPG that do what they do better come along). With an MMORPG it takes a lot longer to get to that point. BUt a lot of end-games for them look similar to the main point if playing a MOBA. Just ideally on a larger scale. A MOBA is basically an MMORPG for people who don't like filler and want to start off at the end game. They very much (to me) seem to be two approaches to the same ends.

     

    3) The above are just reasons why I think it's fair to look at them side by side. However,  it's not even that they may be in direct competition. Just that general tastes in how we game online might shift over time.

     

    Also, what is it about super data research that makes it an unreliable source (have not heard that before?

    And, what would your interpretation be of the statistics from google?

    Do you have any other data to add that could shed light on this idea?

    image

  • RobokappRobokapp Member RarePosts: 6,206

    Let me explain what I think:

     

    As MMOs lose their direction and become over-instanced cash shop ridden everyone-wins fests, the need for "I am amazing, I am the greatest, look what I can do, admire me" grows. It's a serious statement. Need for admiration and appreciation. MOBAs fill it. Perfectly. But that's all MOBAs do.

     

    MOBAs appeal to small-scale PVP needs. MMOs appeal to...small-scale PvE needs nowadays. The two don't compete directly. Their audiences differ, and since MOBAs can be picked, played, dropped, and so can the casual MMOs, there's really no exclusion. 

     

    I can do a LoL game after raid...why choose?

    image

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Originally posted by Robokapp

    MOBAs won't replace MMOs anymore than shooters will replace city-building games.

     

     

    This pretty much, MMO's and MOBA's are two entirely different genres of games, its a bit like saying Chess is on the way out because Jigsaws are getting more popular. Each genre has its own demographic, and there is really no correlation between MOBA's and MMO's that can be used to draw any meaningful conclusion, all we have been shown is speculation that is really not based on factual data, which just makes it all an opinion piece, which you can basically agree with, or disagree with, based on your own perception.image

  • tawesstawess Member EpicPosts: 4,185

    I´d rather see it as the MMO genre comming to rest, it is no longer a "new thing" heck it is hardly a "thing"

    (VR is the "new thing" )

    MOBAs are not there yet.. they are still sort of a "thing" 

     

    Also the reason you see a lot less searching on places like Youtube is because the front page of YT is getting better/more invasive when it comes to findingt stuff you might like, so you are more likely to channel hop than outright search for stuff. 

     

    But as other pointed out... MOBA´s and MMO(insert genre here) do not directly compete in the same way that Forza, Need for Speed and Mario Kart does not directly compete but still are all racing games. 

    Tawess gaming

    Tawess soapbox

    This have been a good conversation

  • AxehiltAxehilt Member RarePosts: 10,504
    Originally posted by Helleri

    But, it is just google (it's really hard to down play how all encompassing google is with a strait face. But, I am making an honest effort). So, supporting evidence? Well a while back super data research looked into the top grossing MMO's.

    And, MOBA (as well as, MOBA-like) games dominate their list.

    SuperData is good for data, but bad for categorization.

    1. They are probably relatively accurate in terms of the data they show.
    2. Many of their most posted charts are about "MMOs" but they mis-categorize many non-MMOs as MMOs.
    3. But they don't mis-categorize every genre as MMOs, so it only shows a limited picture of the overall game industry (though sure, because MOBAs are one genre they mis-categorize, we can compare MOBAs with MMOs using their data which is mostly what you're doing here.)
    4. However this particular chart is ARPU (average rev per user) which is a somewhat inaccurate way of measuring the overall market. It's a measure of rev per player, which sort of measures the enthusiasm of individuals, without capturing the true overall popularity.
    Also looking at the relative google popularity doesn't mean RPG gamers are suddenly moving to MOBAs.  Correlation isn't causation:
     
    MOBAs and RPGs are significant different genres, so we can't really use these shifts in popularity to say MMORPG players are now playing MOBAs.  Obviously it'll be true of some players, but probably not most.
     
    The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling.  We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

    "What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver

  • QuirhidQuirhid Member UncommonPosts: 6,230
    Does ice cream cause drowning?

    I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky

  • AmjocoAmjoco Member UncommonPosts: 4,858

    I think the question is are "you" going to quit playing mmorpgs and start playing MOBAs? /shrug 

    I dislike MOBAs as much as I like FPS, so I guess it all depends on who you are. I'm sticking with mmorpgs. 

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • LacedOpiumLacedOpium Member EpicPosts: 2,327
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Robokapp

    MOBAs won't replace MMOs anymore than shooters will replace city-building games.

     

     

    This pretty much, MMO's and MOBA's are two entirely different genres of games, its a bit like saying Chess is on the way out because Jigsaws are getting more popular. Each genre has its own demographic, and there is really no correlation between MOBA's and MMO's that can be used to draw any meaningful conclusion, all we have been shown is speculation that is really not based on factual data, which just makes it all an opinion piece, which you can basically agree with, or disagree with, based on your own perception.image

     

    Correct. 

    Statistics can be easily used to manipulate or support any particular point of view.  Assuming that one activity is more popular than another based simply on an increase or decrease in data search activity is a shallow way to come to a conclusion.  For all we know the majority of these statistics may have come as a result of searches regarding a limited source(s), Ie., League of Legends.  If so, this would not be indicative of the popularity of a genre as a whole, but of the popularity of a singular game.

     

    Originally posted by Amjoco

    I think the question is are "you" going to quit playing mmorpgs and start playing MOBAs? /shrug 

    I dislike MOBAs as much as I like FPS, so I guess it all depends on who you are. I'm sticking with mmorpgs. 

     

    Correct.

    An increase in search activity of one over another is not necessarily indicative of the preference of one over the other.  It may be that the preference is with the other activity but there hasn't been anything interesting released of the preferred activity to motivate a search.  We are all well aware that there has been a dearth of good MMORPGs released of late, so it would not be surprising to see a lack of interest in that regard.  Undoubtedly, this dearth may also be the reason why there has been an increase in MOBA popularity.   This is not, however, an indication that MOBAs are preferred over MMORPGs.  It may just be the case that there isn't a good choice of MMORPGs to play right now resulting in a decrease in search activity.

     

      

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 36,047

    Well, MOBAs are on the rise, and MMORPG's are sagging a bit, at least in terms of AAA developers investing in them these days, but whether one caused the other, I can't prove.

    My own personal evidence, my son and his friends, (about 8) all were avid WOW Players for over 8 years, but in the last few stopped playing them and pretty much all play LOL right now.

    M son says he'll return to MMO's once he has more free time, currently with work, school, friends, GF's etc, he has no time except for quick LOL matches now and then.

     

    "See normal people, I'm not one of them" | G-Easy & Big Sean

    "I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant

    Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing FO76 at the moment.

    Fools find no pleasure in understanding, but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV

    Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™

    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon






  • Azaron_NightbladeAzaron_Nightblade Member EpicPosts: 4,817
    Different audiences IMO. Of course they cross over at some points, and MMOs have lost a chunk of their more PvP-focused players to MOBAs.

    My SWTOR referral link for those wanting to give the game a try. (Newbies get a welcome package while returning players get a few account upgrades to help with their preferred status.)

    https://www.ashesofcreation.com/ref/Callaron/

  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,208

    I believe that you are missing the forest for the trees.

     

    MMORPG's being played have only grown over the years. There have been some faster/slower periods, but in general, there are more people playing MMORPG's today that there ever have been. However, as there are more games that fall in this category, the results for individual games varies. 

     

    MOBA's are also growing, and there does not seem to be any long term cannibalization from the MMORPG genre. MOBA's had a very strong intial growth, and have now peaked (for a while), and are only seeing small amounts of growth, as many of the products in this category are failing.

     

    In the long term, both genre's will do well, but do not necessarily compete. MMORPG's seem more competition from single player (small group) RPG's. MOBA's seem more competition from FPS. However, both should continue to grow over the years.

  • LegacyGameLegacyGame Member UncommonPosts: 132
    I thought it was just because most MMO's are lukewarm piles of diarrhea with bad vision/execution. 
  • GorweGorwe Member EpicPosts: 6,572

    I'd rather say that everyone has found MMORPG(s) that interest him and he is now playing them vs blatantly hyping them over the place. Also, yes, there was a large population of locusts which play a game for up to 3 months and move on. Most of them move where the fashion is(currently it's split between mobile gaming, minecraft and moba genres) and seeing how MMORPGs fell out of fashion, it's perfectly normal.

    Plus there's a lot of players from other genres playing mobas, you know(action, strategy and fighting genres are what first comes to mind). While MMORPG drew upon a single demographic: RPG players thirsty for multiplayer.

  • HelleriHelleri Member UncommonPosts: 930
    Originally posted by Axehilt

     
    The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling.  We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

    That was really all I was trying to say. Is that this seems to be the case. Not that they are in direct competition. Or that one is the cause of the other. I don't feel I implied otherwise. I do feel it was incorrectly inferred (by more then on person). Heck the title is very purposefully written as "Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?" and not "Are MMORPG dying because MOBA are replacing them?" I feel like people replying (in general) got defensive over the mere idea of MMORPG becoming less popular in general (what ever reason aside) and just reacted based on the first part they heard played back in their heads. I thought I was very careful with my language and very transparent about the process via which I arrived at a big question...I guess I was not as well worded as I thought. Sorry, for that.

     

    Also, MMO in my opinion is an umbrella term. I feel as well, that it is a little too all encompassing. Massively Multiplayer Online...That could even include things like Facebook and Second Life (if the only qualifiers is that it be massive in some sense, used by many at once and online). I actually like to call the wider genre MMOG (The G standing for game so as to be more specific about what is being discussed)c and refer more specifically to sub genres within it (such as I did by saying MMORPG and MOBA and not MMO and MOBA).

     

    Furthermore debate over whether an MOBA is an MMOG/MMO always seems to end in ones definition of Massive. And, usually the argument against it is that lack of persistence equates to lack of massiveness. But, I feel that sort of falls flat. Because, even with persistence in most games one might consider truly massive. I rarely have the draw distance to see anything more of a world at once then I would see were it instanced. Nor do I commonly see more players at once then I would see were it instanced. So the end effect of persistent vs. instant is sort of the same.

     

    But, even if one were to dismiss this and stick to their guns on massive necessarily meaning a large persistent world. Were do you draw that line? how do you fairly say "this is large enough to be massive". And, how do you factor in content per sq. m? Some games like arch lord or huge in the span of it's sheer size. But, you can run a long way between places without running into any actual content. Whereas some game worlds like Runescape are technically pretty small. But there is so much content packed into such a small area that movement is gated by the amount of things there are to experience and the world can feel large.

    image

  • uidLuc1duidLuc1d Member UncommonPosts: 194
    MOBAs are fairly boring in my opinion.  Nothing more than <INSERT FPS HERE> with different graphics, and a further camera angle.  Get in, kill some folks, get out, repeat.  Meh.
  • syltmackasyltmacka Member UncommonPosts: 402

    sure hope not. mmos are way more fun and social in my oppinion.

    mobas are just lazy hack and slash games.

  • KhebelnKhebeln Member UncommonPosts: 759

    Moba is nice for casual players but gets boring REALLY fast for hardcore ones unless you seriously in to e-sport.

    Personally moba feel repetitively boring for me, and lack depth and social structure.

    image
    (Retired)- Anarchy Online/Ultima Online/DAoC/Horizonsz/EQ2/SWG/AC1&2/L2/SoR/WoW/TMO/Requiem/Atlantica Online/Manibogi/Rift+(SL)/Lol/Hon/SWTOR/Wakfu/Champions Online/GW/Lotr/CO/TcoS/Tabula Rasa/Meridian 59/Vanguard/Shadowbane/Fury/SotW/Dreamlords/HGL/RoM/DDO/FFXI/Aoc/Eve/Warhammer Online/Gw2/TSW/Tera/Defiance/STO/AoW/DE/Firefall/Darkfall/Neverwinter/PS2/ESO/FF14/Archeage/Gw2

  • nimander99nimander99 Member UncommonPosts: 288
    MOBA's are basically MMO-Lite so it's not surprising that everyone these days just wants to skip meaningful content and go straight to wreck-face time. I blame mmo makers for this though as we are constantly inundated with shite games that are turning this genre into a joke.
  • KhebelnKhebeln Member UncommonPosts: 759
    Originally posted by Helleri
    Originally posted by Axehilt

     
    The only thing we can say is that yes, clearly MOBAs are growing in popularity while MMORPGs are falling.  We'd need to research the more likely suspects first (other RPGs, and other PVE genres) before we could determine with any certainty where those ex-MMORPG players went.

    That was really all I was trying to say. Is that this seems to be the case. Not that they are in direct competition. Or that one is the cause of the other. I don't feel I implied otherwise. I do feel it was incorrectly inferred (by more then on person). Heck the title is very purposefully written as "Are MMORPG on the way out as MOBA begin to rise?" and not "Are MMORPG dying because MOBA are replacing them?" I feel like people replying (in general) got defensive over the mere idea of MMORPG becoming less popular in general (what ever reason aside) and just reacted based on the first part they heard played back in their heads. I thought I was very careful with my language and very transparent about the process via which I arrived at a big question...I guess I was not as well worded as I thought. Sorry, for that.

     

    Also, MMO in my opinion is an umbrella term. I feel as well, that it is a little too all encompassing. Massively Multiplayer Online...That could even include things like Facebook and Second Life (if the only qualifiers is that it be massive in some sense, used by many at once and online). I actually like to call the wider genre MMOG (The G standing for game so as to be more specific about what is being discussed)c and refer more specifically to sub genres within it (such as I did by saying MMORPG and MOBA and not MMO and MOBA).

     

    Furthermore debate over whether an MOBA is an MMOG/MMO always seems to end in ones definition of Massive. And, usually the argument against it is that lack of persistence equates to lack of massiveness. But, I feel that sort of falls flat. Because, even with persistence in most games one might consider truly massive. I rarely have the draw distance to see anything more of a world at once then I would see were it instanced. Nor do I commonly see more players at once then I would see were it instanced. So the end effect of persistent vs. instant is sort of the same.

     

    But, even if one were to dismiss this and stick to their guns on massive necessarily meaning a large persistent world. Were do you draw that line? how do you fairly say "this is large enough to be massive". And, how do you factor in content per sq. m? Some games like arch lord or huge in the span of it's sheer size. But, you can run a long way between places without running into any actual content. Whereas some game worlds like Runescape are technically pretty small. But there is so much content packed into such a small area that movement is gated by the amount of things there are to experience and the world can feel large.

    Can you really blame mmo veterans for not playing recent mmos considering the state of mmo games right now ?

    We either get overhyped AAA garbage with reheated ideas, or few year old asian below generic mmos that no one plays there anymore.

    There are some interesting projects on the horizon, but there is little innovation going on.

    image
    (Retired)- Anarchy Online/Ultima Online/DAoC/Horizonsz/EQ2/SWG/AC1&2/L2/SoR/WoW/TMO/Requiem/Atlantica Online/Manibogi/Rift+(SL)/Lol/Hon/SWTOR/Wakfu/Champions Online/GW/Lotr/CO/TcoS/Tabula Rasa/Meridian 59/Vanguard/Shadowbane/Fury/SotW/Dreamlords/HGL/RoM/DDO/FFXI/Aoc/Eve/Warhammer Online/Gw2/TSW/Tera/Defiance/STO/AoW/DE/Firefall/Darkfall/Neverwinter/PS2/ESO/FF14/Archeage/Gw2

  • ReallyNow10ReallyNow10 Member UncommonPosts: 2,253
    Originally posted by Khebeln

    Moba is nice for casual players but gets boring REALLY fast for hardcore ones unless you seriously in to e-sport.

    Personally moba feel repetitively boring for me, and lack depth and social structure.

    Couldn't have said it better.  The game play is just too shallow to entertain for long stretches of time.

  • ceratop001ceratop001 Member RarePosts: 1,594
    Mobas are just getting the run off from the failed mmorpg scene. Players are bored and just trying everything they can to find a home. The whole online gaming world is a mess.
     
  • HelleriHelleri Member UncommonPosts: 930

    I almost think MMORPG created MOBA in a sense. Think about dying MMORPG for a second.

     

    What do you call an MMORPG that is effectively 1/10 the size (due to most of the content being rendered pointless filler by successive updates to the end game). Where the only important part of the game is carried out by a small group (comparative to full and active MMORPG player base) of high powered players that are mostly the same. That play out power struggles over small territories amongst each other waiting for new gear and enemies or new battle fields to fight on. Where the only real change usually is a shift in the Meta of how areas/maps are played?

     

    Now MMORPG really didn't start dying in classic form until after WoW released (2004). So, if we consider Dota (2003) a derivative of predecessors and not an actual attempt at a MOBA (that it is would just be happenstance in this purview). And, we start of the beginning of MOBA with the actual deliberate attempt and coining of the acronym. Then we start the MOBA genre off with LoL (2009).

     

    So, maybe...the MOBA sub genere, as a deliberate thing was an attempt to codify a style of game play that had come about first somewhat unintentionally from that starcraft mod (and done well) and then later again started to emerge unintentionally in many MMORPG due to the great dying that happened in the shadow cast by WoW.

     

    It could be that there was a sense that when you cut out all the filler of an MMORPG. And, you focus hard on the meat of the end point,. you wind up with a marketable sub-genre. It may very well be that the former is at least partially responsible for birthing the latter. And, in-so-much MMORPG and MOBA might be closer related (almost blood related in a sense) then it might appear at a cursory glance.

     

    ...This is of course all conjecture based on a lot of supposition. But, still an intriguing line of reasoning.

    image

Sign In or Register to comment.