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My Prediction: The Game will have a reliable Fan-Base and will NOT go F2P

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  • kilunkilun Member UncommonPosts: 742
    Originally posted by Kyleran
    Originally posted by kilun
    Originally posted by DamonVile
    Too many games have been fun and exciting till you hit level cap only to have the game end in dailies/raid/ or pointless pvp Until you know what it's really going to be like you can't predict what will happen.

    And there has been a game released that was different than this model?  I can take any game and get you to "cap" be it a soft or hard as in level and point to basically the same formula, just spewed out differently.  Games are all the same.  Just different skinned with different objectives.

     

    Yes in fact, see EVE, AC1, FFXI, SWG, SB, L1/L2 just to name a few. Never mistake the current modern themepark endgame design as the only possibility, they were and can be so much more.

    Ok, I'll go through the list here:

    EVE:  Afk for a year or actually play, your choice, then continually do the same thing each and every day.  Whether it be make an alliance, mine, pirate, counterintelligence etc.

    SWG:  My daily activity as an Armorsmith:  Go check my miners.  Go check my factories.  Check my ingame mails to see if any new orders are there.  Check websites and search for the newest resource spawn and planting miners.  Log into second account and replace miners as well.  AKA:

    Daily one:  Check factories.  Daily two: Check ingame mail and produce new orders.  Daily 3,4, etc.

    Shadowbane:  Fight CN.  Fight CN.  (Chinese Nation someone is wondering)  Ok build our city, protect our city.  Well from CN of course.

    I can't comment on FFXI as I played very little of it.  Unless the L2 had anything to do more than counter the botters, I'd be impressed with all the negative press.  Games are all the same.  They are a waste of time.  I enjoy wasting my time on them though, and literally they are all the same just skinned differently.

     

  • DeddmeatDeddmeat Member UncommonPosts: 385

    I beta'd swtor and played for awhile after launch, for me it failed due to limiting classes. You wanted to use 2 sabers, well you had to go a certain path. Don't want to go that path, well tough.

    Then if you did want to go that path there was the actual players, the 'if you don't take x,y,z skills' then your not getting in the group mindset a deal of them had. Add to that the language problems (yes we get that on every mmo now but it doesn't help) in chat.

    The dark side you got lightning .. yesss, went light side, well you got to throw pebbles .. that was a great let down, they needed to have used something as dramatic as the lightning (but good) but 'pebbles' seriously??

    To much having to use cover, game was setup to let you down. It had great potential but there were things that just caused you to think twice about it.

    ESO your not limited with armour or weapons, everyone can use the soul magic and each class has at least a few abilities that you should like. For Nightblade I like the Siphon line for example.

    The builds available with ESO should be VERY varied and I hope everyone is allowed to use whatever the hell they want.

    image

  • GiffenGiffen Member UncommonPosts: 276
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    Honestly too many people are enjoying the game internally for it to be a complete failure.

    Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

    And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless. 

     

    Unfortunately for the ones who want this game to fail, this isnt TOR Pt.2, this isnt Vanguard, this isnt Warhammer.

    And despite the more logical and outspoken people like AngryJoe who have negative things to say about the game, almost all of those issues are with the pay-structure/PR which wont affect the games initial success only its furher success.

     

    So basically what im getting at for the Doom-Gloomers, all you have left is the notion that the P2P model will fail, and if the game is good enough to warrent the price, then ESO is a success. Hell with all the negative PR its almost impossble for the game not to succedd at this point, because expectations are at an all time low for MMO's and ESO is JUST different enough to keep people interested.

     

    End Prediction.

     

     

    It all depends on how long players keep playing it.  If they are quitting in droves after one month then you can bet F2P will be high on Zenimax's agenda.  The troubling thing with the reviews I've seen are they all agree, the longer you play the game the more boring it gets....that doesn't bode well for the long term survivability of ESO, especially as a P2P with subscription game.

  • UhwopUhwop Member UncommonPosts: 1,791

    How does the OP know what the pre-order sales numbers are? 

     

     

  • Thebrave246Thebrave246 Member Posts: 174
    I think they are TRYING to like it as much as they can. It is the same as any other MMO and actually, IMO, offers less than other SUBSCRIPTION-based games. It is really nothing special and if you want to play a good Elder Scrolls game, play Skyrim. With hardly any knowledge about end-game content aside from PvP, yeah forget it...
  • Stuka1000Stuka1000 Member UncommonPosts: 955
    Originally posted by Giffen
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    Honestly too many people are enjoying the game internally for it to be a complete failure.

    Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

    And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless. 

     

    Unfortunately for the ones who want this game to fail, this isnt TOR Pt.2, this isnt Vanguard, this isnt Warhammer.

    And despite the more logical and outspoken people like AngryJoe who have negative things to say about the game, almost all of those issues are with the pay-structure/PR which wont affect the games initial success only its furher success.

     

    So basically what im getting at for the Doom-Gloomers, all you have left is the notion that the P2P model will fail, and if the game is good enough to warrent the price, then ESO is a success. Hell with all the negative PR its almost impossble for the game not to succedd at this point, because expectations are at an all time low for MMO's and ESO is JUST different enough to keep people interested.

     

    End Prediction.

     

     

    It all depends on how long players keep playing it.  If they are quitting in droves after one month then you can bet F2P will be high on Zenimax's agenda.  The troubling thing with the reviews I've seen are they all agree, the longer you play the game the more boring it gets....that doesn't bode well for the long term survivability of ESO, especially as a P2P with subscription game.

    I am going to get SOOO flamed for this but Wildstar will go f2p faster than ESO.  The reason?  Just look at the hype.  Because of the reviews ( and to be honest misinformation in many of them ) people are not expecting much from ESO so those that buy it will be pleasantly surprised.   Wildstar on the other hand has a massive amount of expectation with everyone and their pet dog thinking it's the second coming with free burgers to boot, much the same kind of hype that ToR had really.  Personally I hope that both games succeed because it needs to be shown that a sub model is still viable.  But I fear for Wildstar when people begin to realise that the high pedestal they have placed it on is a little lower than they thought.

  • tomsend53tomsend53 Member Posts: 2
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

     

    How do you know the pre-orders are that good? Do you have any numbers?

  • tomsend53tomsend53 Member Posts: 2
    I think they will go F2P after a while just like SWTOR. But not because the game will be bad or not have enough subscribers but because the devs will be unable to resist the temptation to go F2P.  SWTOR is a great game and had enough subscribers to go on, but the devs thought that by adding a restrictive F2P they will make even MORE money than just with subscribers. And they are right. F2P SWTOR is some kind of a demo for subscribed SWTOR. It attracts new players but has enough barriers so that you can not go forever without subscribing. Plus it lets very rich players buy useless stuff from the shop. The subscribers didn't lose anything when SWTOR went F2P, the game is almost the same for them. I think EOS will do the same thing after the first year. EOS will go F2P but with enough barriers so that you can not go very far without subscribing. It's a win-win situation for everybody. It doesn't matter how great EOS will be, unless they somehow manage to take all of WOW subscribers there is no way EOS will remain F2P forever. There just aren't enough gamers willing to subscribe left in the world.
  • lunatiquezlunatiquez Member UncommonPosts: 381
    Originally posted by tomsend53
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

     

    How do you know the pre-orders are that good? Do you have any numbers?

    No numbers, but they stated in facebook that "Pre-orders for the physical ESO Imperial Edition have been selling quickly, and some retailers are already sold out". It's not like we have to take it for granted though.

  • SiugSiug Member UncommonPosts: 1,257
    If it goes f2p then it goes and no big problem imo. If I'm interested in this game by that time then I'll still subscribe for monthly benefits.
  • hikaru77hikaru77 Member UncommonPosts: 1,117
    Originally posted by azzamasin
    If SWTOR taught us anything is that a reliable fanbase does not counteract a very mediocre game.

    If SWTOR is a mediocre game then dont know what left for everything else. More than 2 years and is doing great, is still P2P with a F2P trial and a Cosmetic CS like WoW or pretty much everysingle MMO out there. And about TESO, Agree with the OP after what i saw in the beta it wont go F2P, probably a cosmetic CS at some point, but thats all, the game have something that you wont find in any other MMO in the market, (after the dead of warhammer).  

  • PNM_JenningsPNM_Jennings Member UncommonPosts: 1,093
    Early cash grab, starting box and sub fees, mediocre reviews, press only NDA drop.... It'll be f2p within a year, and Zenimax knows it, too. Reliable fan-bases mean nothing if that fan base is small, or if the game bleeds subs in the first few months, or if the reviews and word of mouth is bad. They need new players to keep it alive (unless they have WoW numbers), and this doesn't look like anything that's going to draw in new players after the first few months.
  • udonudon Member UncommonPosts: 1,803
    Originally posted by atticusbc
    Early cash grab, starting box and sub fees, mediocre reviews, press only NDA drop.... It'll be f2p within a year, and Zenimax knows it, too. Reliable fan-bases mean nothing if that fan base is small, or if the game bleeds subs in the first few months, or if the reviews and word of mouth is bad. They need new players to keep it alive (unless they have WoW numbers), and this doesn't look like anything that's going to draw in new players after the first few months.

    Small?  TES games fan base is many times larger than KOTOR games.  TOR had both KOTOR fan's and Star Wars fan's going for it but not every Star Wars fan is a also a MMO fan neither is every TES fan a MMO but I still think ESO will outsell TOR by a good margin.

    I'm not making any predictions about ESO other than it will sell very well.  Like in the 5-7 million copies range between the PC and console launch.  What it does after that will depend a lot on Zenimax and how they handle the first few months.  If they can prove value for the sub and get on a aggressive content release schedule putting out stuff people want and providing appealing PVP than they could build a healthy sub base and has a good chance of holding onto them.  If they fall into the trap of focusing only on bugs the first few months and appear to not be doing anything meaningful than they are going to have a harder time.  I really don't think the average person has a issue with a sub, what they have a issue with is not seeing value for their money.

    How much the game encourages social interaction also plays into this.  Does the game reward you for being in guilds and building a active friends list or is it fluff?  People with long friends list in games tend not to stop subscribing to them after a month or two.

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