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My Prediction: The Game will have a reliable Fan-Base and will NOT go F2P

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  • CetraCetra Member UncommonPosts: 359
    Originally posted by Cantorage
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless

    Very assumptive, and most of all wrong.

    I'm a huge TES fan and a life long MMO gamer, so not only did I want to like this game, but I would have been extremely easy to please. However, this game is nothing but a cynical cash grab with a dubious at best connection to TES, terrible zone design to make the player waste time, junk writing and quests, a poor skill system, a trash UI, and everything else they've played safe.

     

    Unfortunately I wouldn't play TESO if it were completely free.

    So much wrong ^.

    I'm not a fanboi. I actually HATED ESO when i tried it in previous beta weekends. But after this weekend, i learn to appreciate the game.

    Voice dialogues are great.

    An immersive world that makes me want to explore every inch and corner.

    The endless combinations you can make with weapon/armor/class and huge variety of abilities. No character is the same nor plays the same.

    I like the combat. Wielding a 2 handed weapon and bashing an heavy attack on enemy's head  feels so satisfying.

    Crafting is fun and easy to get into. Been able to craft items approriate to your level is great! Not like most mmos where you are often overleveled for what you can craft.

    I havent tried pvp. But what i heard, its great if you like daoc rvr.

    This game will survive with a decently large playerbase no doubt.

  • ElikalElikal Member UncommonPosts: 7,912

    MMO gamers are an unpredicable beast. I think one of the issues is how Zenimax clings to their vision, just as SWTOR and AoC devs did. But Star Wars has a WAY bigger fanfollowing.

    I dunno. Hmm. How good IS Zenimax at ironing out?`And how much are they willing to listen to critique? I wonder.

    People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert

  • DMKanoDMKano Member LegendaryPosts: 20,902

    It will go F2P - because that's where the biggest profits are.

    Every MMORPG will go F2P eventually.

    Only a matter of time.

     

  • TygranirTygranir Member Posts: 741
    ESO will have a sold fan-base for people who want elder scrolls in an MMO setting. I would rather have a new Elder Scrolls single player game, but that's just me

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  • ZizouXZizouX Member Posts: 670

    The questions is, will TESO be more like sWTOR or FFXIV.

     

    Within 6 months of SWTOR, the writing was on the wall.  The IP nor the "loyal fanbase" could prevent the game from going free to play.  Conversely, we are at 6 months for FFXIV and there's absolutely no sign the game is going free to play.

     

    here's the problem with TESO, if it was as good as Skyrim, without very little mmo components, I could see it surviving with a loyal fan base.  However, all of the previews say it's a watered down version of Skyrim and a horrible mmo.  I think this game is going free to play.

     

    my 2 cents.

  • TygranirTygranir Member Posts: 741
    Originally posted by ZizouX

    The questions is, will TESO be more like sWTOR or FFXIV.

     

    Within 6 months of SWTOR, the writing was on the wall.  The IP nor the "loyal fanbase" could prevent the game from going free to play.  Conversely, we are at 6 months for FFXIV and there's absolutely no sign the game is going free to play.

     

    here's the problem with TESO, if it was as good as Skyrim, without very little mmo components, I could see it surviving with a loyal fan base.  However, all of the previews say it's a watered down version of Skyrim and a horrible mmo.  I think this game is going free to play.

     

    my 2 cents.

     

    the problem you encounter is that, no matter how profitable a game may be, F2P with a cash shop seems to draw more profit.

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  • ZizouXZizouX Member Posts: 670
    Originally posted by Tygranir
    Originally posted by ZizouX

    The questions is, will TESO be more like sWTOR or FFXIV.

     

    Within 6 months of SWTOR, the writing was on the wall.  The IP nor the "loyal fanbase" could prevent the game from going free to play.  Conversely, we are at 6 months for FFXIV and there's absolutely no sign the game is going free to play.

     

    here's the problem with TESO, if it was as good as Skyrim, without very little mmo components, I could see it surviving with a loyal fan base.  However, all of the previews say it's a watered down version of Skyrim and a horrible mmo.  I think this game is going free to play.

     

    my 2 cents.

     

    the problem you encounter is that, no matter how profitable a game may be, F2P with a cash shop seems to draw more profit.

    I disagree with this.   SWTOR is the case because it has like 2 million free to play players that use teh cash shop.  Probably of those 2 million 300-400k subscribe.

     

    Compare that to Rift?  Is Rift make as much or more money than FFXIV as a sub game?  The answer is obviously no.  If F2P with Cash shop and option for subscription is the BEST solution, then why do all games start with subscription and HAVE to go to F2P just to survive.  Wouldn't it be wise to go straight to F2P, why even go through teh embarassment of becoming free to play.

     

    When you have a F2P +cash shop model, yrou design choice is to create as many cahshop items as content.  So you get dumbed down content and a lot of cash shop items because that's the only way the game gets revenue.

     

    Games like Wow and FFXIV, rather spend 100% of their time and resources on CONTENT.  They have fluff as well, but vast majority of wow's resources go towards content patches and maybe 10% on their cash shop service.  With FFXIV, they don't even have a cash shop.  the Entire subscription goes towards content.

     

    That's the difference.  I don't want a game company who's spending half its resources thinking how they can nickle and dime me to death.  I want to pay 15 bucks and have access to everything.   And I want the company to focus on making things for me to do, not making things for me to buy.

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed Member RarePosts: 6,906
    Originally posted by sludgebeard

    Honestly too many people are enjoying the game internally for it to be a complete failure.

    Pre-Order sales of Imperial Edition are more than enough to keep this game afloat on P2P for up to a year.

    And most importantly the Doom-Gloom posts are made primarily from an audience that had no intrest in the game to begin with, so all the "Bad Beta Reviews" threads are pointless. 

     

    Unfortunately for the ones who want this game to fail, this isnt TOR Pt.2, this isnt Vanguard, this isnt Warhammer.

    And despite the more logical and outspoken people like AngryJoe who have negative things to say about the game, almost all of those issues are with the pay-structure/PR which wont affect the games initial success only its furher success.

     

    So basically what im getting at for the Doom-Gloomers, all you have left is the notion that the P2P model will fail, and if the game is good enough to warrent the price, then ESO is a success. Hell with all the negative PR its almost impossble for the game not to succedd at this point, because expectations are at an all time low for MMO's and ESO is JUST different enough to keep people interested.

     

    End Prediction.

     

     

    So I will ask,

    in a calm way

     

    What are the game design elements of the game that you expect to bring the game success in the long run?

    image

  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Member RarePosts: 9,624

    The majorrity of the elder scrolls fanbase lives on consoles, and since there is no such thing as an AAA fantasy MMORPG on these consoles..... ESO will be a major hit....

     

    Will ot succeed on PC, sure thing, it will survive just fine, have a loyal fanbase in the end, while the rest moves on to other games..  But free to play... No way, if its a hit on consoles...

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 11,687

    Regardless of the game, subscription model becomes an obstacle for your business, sooner or later.

    Big titles are capable to stirr up some momentum at launch but once the things settle down, subscription is access restrictive and limiting on monetary gain.


    Games do not go F2P because they failed but because they would be stupid not to.

  • otacuotacu Member UncommonPosts: 547

    I've seen this kind of threads before. 

    Every mmorpg that launch p2p had this kind of "predition"

    They were all wrong.

     

  • lunatiquezlunatiquez Member UncommonPosts: 381
    Originally posted by otacu

    I've seen this kind of threads before. 

    Every mmorpg that launch p2p had this kind of "predition"

    They were all wrong.

    Indeed, pretty much every P2P mmorpg in the last 5 years or so have went F2P/B2P. Let's see how FFXIV will fare.

  • movros99movros99 Member UncommonPosts: 125
    Judging from what I've read from authorized press, TESO is missing some basic elements that other MMO's have already figured out or implemented.  I don't think that there are enough Elder Scrolls fans to embrace the MMO version of the IP to make a subscription model solvent.   I think crowdfunded MMO's are the way of the future, but I hope for the sake of the genre that TESO is a success (the definition of which will vary widely). 
  • VarraxVarrax Member Posts: 9
    I seriously doubt ESO will go F2P. One of the reasons is of course large fanbase, due to previous success of Skyrim. Lots of people are going to buy the game just because they’re fond of Tamriel. On the other hand, if game is really poor, even fanboys leaving like rats from a sinking ship.
    But right now we see F2P model is at crisis, “mongrel” MMO’s flooded the market. And majority of the best F2P games where released as P2P anyway.
    Also devs are planning to release more of content, and I think its kinda hard to do with F2P model, cause you need stable and predictable income. May be they’ll stick to LOTRO model of selling content, I don’t know, but right now I don’t see any reason to do this.

    Also ESO is going to be a big fish on consoles, so fail is hardly possible, and that’s one more reason to avoid F2P.

    After playing more then 40 hours on beta, I can make a statement: game is worth buying, and PvE side, including instances and group content is pretty viable. Right now I don’t see any real reason for it to turn F2P.
  • Cures80Cures80 Member CommonPosts: 29

    what many people here dont understand: despite, or even BECAUSE SWTOR went f2p its a very successfull game making millions for its owners. from a publishers perspective - why would i not sell boxes, take subs as long as anyone pays them and then practically RELAUNCH with all new hype into f2p - which is the sustainable income of todays mmo's. its all about that we, the players, do any shit they want anyway ;)

    And we are VERY predictable btw. Im quite sure bethesda has a plan for most scenarios, none of them beeing bad for their pocket change - and they have every right to do so.

  • sketocafesketocafe Member UncommonPosts: 950
    Depends a lot on whatever it is these 'Adventure Zones' zenimax mentioned are. However fun I might have found Cyrodil to be there is a huge chunk of the MMO market who want challenging pve content to stick around. If Zeni gets the endgame pve right then they should do well. If they've gone the SWTOR route and decided they could release without enough shit to do then they will experience troubles with keeping subs.
  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Member RarePosts: 9,624
    Originally posted by inemosz
    Originally posted by otacu

    I've seen this kind of threads before. 

    Every mmorpg that launch p2p had this kind of "predition"

    They were all wrong.

    Indeed, pretty much every P2P mmorpg in the last 5 years or so have went F2P/B2P. Let's see how FFXIV will fare.

    Not really... The f2p most of these offer is nothing but an extended trial..... If you want to play any of these so called f2p games, you will eventually need to subscribe to them........ Free to play is nothing but a carrot to trick people intoo subscribing.... And on top of that making extra money from your customers by selling them stuff that should have been available ingame trough a cash shop...

     

    f2p .... Is the best way to give your MMO a new fresh start, but it is anything but free...

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • amber-ramber-r Member Posts: 323
    Originally posted by azzamasin
    If SWTOR taught us anything is that a reliable fanbase does not counteract a very mediocre game.

     

    SWTOR actually did well during the first year, is still running and is now very profitable and that EA just increased their Stars licence to be able to run the game for another 10 years.

     

    If SWTOR taught us anything it's that the publishers expectations were too high, very little else since it's still running and doing well.

  • otacuotacu Member UncommonPosts: 547
    Originally posted by amber-r
    Originally posted by azzamasin
    If SWTOR taught us anything is that a reliable fanbase does not counteract a very mediocre game.

     

    SWTOR actually did well during the first year, is still running and is now very profitable and that EA just increased their Stars licence to be able to run the game for another 10 years.

     

    If SWTOR taught us anything it's that the publishers expectations were too high, very little else since it's still running and doing well.

    Doing well... and doing f2p :)

    And that's the fate that awaits ESO

  • lunatiquezlunatiquez Member UncommonPosts: 381
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
    Originally posted by inemosz
    Originally posted by otacu

    I've seen this kind of threads before. 

    Every mmorpg that launch p2p had this kind of "predition"

    They were all wrong.

    Indeed, pretty much every P2P mmorpg in the last 5 years or so have went F2P/B2P. Let's see how FFXIV will fare.

    Not really... The f2p most of these offer is nothing but an extended trial..... If you want to play any of these so called f2p games, you will eventually need to subscribe to them........ Free to play is nothing but a carrot to trick people intoo subscribing.... And on top of that making extra money from your customers by selling them stuff that should have been available ingame trough a cash shop...

    Are you another one who only played SWTOR/LOTRO and mark all F2P as freemium?

    Have you tried Rift/Aion/Tera/GW/TSW?

    Have you seen restriction on those titles?

  • rojoArcueidrojoArcueid Member EpicPosts: 9,992
    All i can say is that if i decide to play TESO, either this game or Wildstar will have to go F2P so i can play them both. I am not fan enough of subscriptions to pay more than one.




  • otacuotacu Member UncommonPosts: 547
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
    Originally posted by inemosz
     

    Not really... The f2p most of these offer is nothing but an extended trial..... If you want to play any of these so called f2p games, you will eventually need to subscribe to them........ Free to play is nothing but a carrot to trick people intoo subscribing.... And on top of that making extra money from your customers by selling them stuff that should have been available ingame trough a cash shop...

     

    f2p .... Is the best way to give your MMO a new fresh start, but it is anything but free...

    Yeah like for example selling playable races in a cash shop. Right? ;)

    You are so behind times. There are plenty of mmorpg nowadays that don't work that way and don't need a subscription fee to get the whole experience.

  • ShadanwolfShadanwolf Member UncommonPosts: 2,377

    They will sell a lot of copies.The game will go ftp. AVA will hold a smallish population of xDAOC players who cling to this under performing title. PVE will be a ghost land.

     

    My predictions.

    (This is what you get when you poorly execute and try to be all things to all people.

    MUSH )

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,175
    Originally posted by Fearum
    Originally posted by Rockniss
    Originally posted by RealmLordsKen

     

     

    I doubt it, they would have to have a cash shop to get more money or each month they put out content they would have to charge for it. They have a plan, its to put out content updates each month and treat the game like a premium service.

    We will see about that though but I think they might be able to pull it off since they have been planning it for some time, again we will see. By doing this they need a steady stream of income to keep a decent size team developing everyday plus all the other jobs that need to be filled to run a game like this.

    B2P is too dependent on a cash shop since after the initial purchase the only other cash they get is from crap in the crap shop and from wasting all their resource on holiday temporary updates to... sell more crap in the crap shop.

    Not B2P + cash shop fluff. B2P + DLC content. Think mini-expansions.

    And if they need to pull zones and dungeons from what they have now to ensure they can release DLC for the next several months fine. Simply sell a huge game for $60 rather than a gigantic game.

    The problem today with a sub is that it limits sales. So sales are in the millions not tens of millions. So less money. And the sub ends up being used to cover the shortfall - it doesn't go towards creating new content. Oh the devs talk a good story but think about it. If the core game has 200 or 400 hours of content all for $60 are you really going to get 50 or 100 hours of new content for your $15? Of course you are not. Sure there are some other costs but they are minor - could even be covered by a small annual charge if needed.

    B2P + proper DLC. 

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,175

    I am sure the game will have a reliable fan base assuming that Zenimax launch with a sub.

    And I can easily see Zenimax sticking with their subscription approach.

    I think ESO would be better served by being B2P + DLC (not F2P cash shop). Wouldn't be a problem on XBox1's either that way. That's another story however.

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