GW2: Growing or Dying after 1 month?

umcorian

What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Nadia

anet hasnt announced 1st day sales - or even first week sales yet

 

and you are trying to predict next month?

Amjoco

As long as it's as successful as GW1 I don't really care. From the amount of people that I have ran into in even the most remote areas of the game it's popularity is amazing. No way to predict, but if word of mouth leads to players expressing the game and how fun it is to their friends, it will probably stay about the same and not decline like most games do (at least for a few months).

nickster29

I think the true test will be to see how many copies of the first expansion sell as compared to the base game.  There will not be any subscription metrics to determine retention, outside of concurrent user numbers.

 

I am placing my vote in the "growth" category for now.

Mikeha

Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.

prpshrt

Number of people that play can only technically grow cause it has no subs. But I guess a good estimate of how many people playing will be shown through the sales for their next expansion pack.

kaiser3282

Originally posted by DMKano

Originally posted by umcorian
What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.

What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.

Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.

Well, really all PvE gets boring. Its the nature of things. You keep doing the same thing day after day against an enemy that does the same thing because it is a scripted AI, its going to get repetitive and boring. Thats why expansions are created. To make money they have to add new stuff, because the players ar ebored with what currently exists.

If more of the masses actually PvPed vs thinking reacting humans instead of mobs that follow easily recognizable patterns that can be broken down into simplistic play  there would be a lot less boredom :-P

For me, unless something better and really revolutionary that we dont know about yet comes along real soon it will continue growing. Going anywhere else is just going back to more of the same that youve already been doing for years which is even more boring.

Nadia

I assume GW2 will thrive better than GW1

 

GW1 kept selling, month after month, throughout the whole year -- with no cash shop too

it took guild wars 5 months before anet announced 1 million sold

http://guildwars.com/events/press/releases/

http://guildwars.com/events/press/releases/pressrelease-2005-09-22.php

 

i never played GW1 pvp until later campaigns - i was playing GW1 for the PVE

 

gaugemew

Guild wars is  great game.  My concern isn't the game itself, it's the players.  There is rampant exploiting going on.  Players are trying to find any small way to get an advantage, and using it, regardless of the consequences.

This to me makes me not want to play.  Just because I don't want to play with poeple who think they need to do this crap to win(do well in the game).

xpiher

growing simply because most MMO vets wait till after the first month to buy a game. By then, most game breaking bugs are fixed. 

Kakkzooka

It's going to grow, provided they work these two fundamental kinks out:

 

1.) The Trading Post - you can't start a game without a functioning economy. The longer they take to address this crucial issue, the greater the probability that this game will lose players. Players are either hoarding or vendoring resources, and either of those combinations can wreck havoc with the perceived viability of an MMORPG. Hoarding will create an oversupplied, weak economy and vendoring will cause the market to over-inflate once the economy is back up and running. It's only a short-term problem because we're dealing with a virtual economy, but to the players - it's a very tangible problem.

 

2.) Security Breaches - nobody wants to play a game where their information is compromised. Perhaps ArenaNet should rethink its policies, and explanation for the breaches. Its beginning to look more and more like ArenaNet's servers are compromised rather than hackers parsing data from third parties. Also, see the Trading Post - why has it been down so long? I think this ties into the security breaches. If GW2 players' information was really culled from third party sources as opposed to AreanNet itself, why has the Trading Post been down for so long? Perhaps because that's where the user's credit card information is accessed. It just seems too coincidental.

 

Barring these two critical issues, and with ArenaNet's proposed incremental content introduction, GW2 has extreme growth potential. GW2 has alreay knocked WoW off its pedestal in terms of hours played as an aggregate, so it has an auspicious start.

JeffSpicoli

It doesnt mattter , The game is B2P and is not going anywhere. The people that still love GW2 3or 6 months from now will have spent enough in the cash shop to keep the game profitable. The genious of GW2 is that is is a really high quality MMO which has no subscription model, People will leave & comeback, leave & comeback ect...

  This games future nor success can be measured by active players 6 months down the road, instead it will need to be evaluated on a yearly basis because of the B2P cash model A-net has in place.

 

I see GW2 as the kind of MMO that will just stick around for the next decade like WOW, The graphics engine they have in place is good enough to not look dated several years+ from now. 

 

 

TwoThreeFour

Time to keep track on Xfire again.

kaiser3282

Originally posted by Kakkzooka

It's going to grow, provided they work these two fundamental kinks out:

 

1.) The Trading Post - you can't start a game without a functioning economy. The longer they take to address this crucial issue, the greater the probability that this game will lose players. Players are either hoarding or vendoring resources, and either of those combinations can wreck havoc with the perceived viability of an MMORPG. Hoarding will create an oversupplied, weak economy and vendoring will cause the market to over-inflate once the economy is back up and running. It's only a short-term problem because we're dealing with a virtual economy, but to the players - it's a very tangible problem.

 

2.) Security Breaches - nobody wants to play a game where their information is compromised. Perhaps ArenaNet should rethink its policies, and explanation for the breaches. Its beginning to look more and more like ArenaNet's servers are compromised rather than hackers parsing data from third parties. Also, see the Trading Post - why has it been down so long? I think this ties into the security breaches. If GW2 players' information was really culled from third party sources as opposed to AreanNet itself, why has the Trading Post been down for so long? Perhaps because that's where the user's credit card information is accessed. It just seems too coincidental.

 

Barring these two critical issues, and with ArenaNet's proposed incrimental content introduction, GW2 has extreme growth potential. GW2 has alreay knocked WoW off its pedestal in terms of hours played as an aggregate, so it has an auspicious start

RE: Trading Post -

Its been up for between 25-50% of players for a few days now. Theyve been going through testing and fixes in smaller groups, increasing the number each day, until they get it finalized and push out the final product. I had access to it myself from late Friday night to late Saturday night. I got rotated out though so no access atm :-(

Anyway, point being. If it were related to security issues like youre thinking, doubt it would have been brought up for half the pop.

umcorian

Originally posted by Nadia

anet hasnt announced 1st day sales - or even first week sales yet

 

and you are trying to predict next month?

I'm not trying to predict anything, as I didn't make an assertion one way or the other.

I'm interested in the impression of people playing the game. 

SlyLoK

Not sure if ANET has increased server load or what but during the head start I was always in the overflow for an area and now as soon as I login I get the message to travel to the main area. Take it for what its worth which is very little.

My opinion would be the amount of players will lessen.

umcorian

Originally posted by DMKano

Originally posted by umcorian
What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.

What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.

Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.

Rift began losing subs the week after it was launched. Almost sure of that. But even if you're right, the game began a rapid and fast decline. By 6 months in, barely more than a handful of servers were active. I'm reasonably certain any supposed "big time" MMO has launched big, then almost immediately began to lose subscriptions.

GW2 not withstanding, it say something about the industry, I think. People aren't interested in a game that DOESN'T reinvent the wheel. Taking the same tired formula and tweaking it slightly with mild innovation just doesn't cut it in the long run. 

GW2 does seem to turn much of the MMO genre on it's head - but I'm not sure if it's enough to be a completely different game from what came before it. 

Omnifish

Originally posted by DMKano

Originally posted by umcorian
What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.

What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.

Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.

 

Rift was a funny one though.  As you may recall the client straight after launch was discounted and then discounted again after the first month.  There was also a discount on a 3/6/12 month sub plan, so I'd suggest that a lot of people got the game, liked it and stubbed up for discounted multi month plans then were joined by others at the end of the first month who took a chance on the cheap client, I know I did.  Subjective I know, but I'm sure the game hasn't grown long term.

As for the actually question, it depends on how well the cash shop does.  Really it's the driving force for the future of the game, if people stop buying then that'll slowly mount up the costs and the whole thing will become a burden to NCSOFT.  They'll probably be a hardcore PVP bunch that'll keep this going and will keep investing in the cash shop for the gems for cash and boots. Expect more items to arrive in the CS in due course, more tempting things then are there now.  

NCSOFT/ANET are looking to grow the game longterm, I doubt they expected people to abandon WoW like EA did with SWTOR, there hoping word of mouth and positivity to drive those unsure to fork out the cash and then stay there and invest in the CS.  So far I'd say there's a mixed response, but it's early days.  If we see talks of an expansion in a years time I'd say there pretty much on target and the cash shop has been doing it's job.

hikaru77

Dont gonna die, is B2P. But the population will drop after a month, probably even less than that. 

xpiher

Originally posted by Omnifish

Originally posted by DMKano

Originally posted by umcorian
What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.

What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.

Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.

 

Rift was a funny one though.  As you may recall the client straight after launch was discounted and then discounted again after the first month.  There was also a discount on a 3/6/12 month sub plan, so I'd suggest that a lot of people got the game, liked it and stubbed up for discounted multi month plans then were joined by others at the end of the first month who took a chance on the cheap client, I know I did.  Subjective I know, but I'm sure the game hasn't grown long term.

As for the actually question, it depends on how well the cash shop does.  Really it's the driving force for the future of the game, if people stop buying then that'll slowly mount up the costs and the whole thing will become a burden to NCSOFT.  They'll probably be a hardcore PVP bunch that'll keep this going and will keep investing in the cash shop for the gems for cash and boots. Expect more items to arrive in the CS in due course, more tempting things then are there now.  

NCSOFT/ANET are looking to grow the game longterm, I doubt they expected people to abandon WoW like EA did with SWTOR, there hoping word of mouth and positivity to drive those unsure to fork out the cash and then stay there and invest in the CS.  So far I'd say there's a mixed response, but it's early days.  If we see talks of an expansion in a years time I'd say there pretty much on target and the cash shop has been doing it's job.

1) ANET owns their own servers

2) GW1 is still operational after 7 years. Cash shpp didn't really exist until after they stopped development on the game

3) GW2 will likely operate similarily to GW1, where a paid expansion will be released every 6-9 months.

dynamicipftw

It won't die because of the B2P model, but it will go back down to under 1 mil active players because of the lack of endgame.

Deathenger

Originally posted by gaugemew

Guild wars is  great game.  My concern isn't the game itself, it's the players.  There is rampant exploiting going on.  Players are trying to find any small way to get an advantage, and using it, regardless of the consequences.

This to me makes me not want to play.  Just because I don't want to play with poeple who think they need to do this crap to win(do well in the game).

Rest assured that ANet bans cheaters/exploiters without mercy.

samvenice

Don't forget that operating GW1 is a completely different story from keeping up GW2 servers, due to the first relying heavily on instances while the second being a persistent world with much more difficult challenges to overcome - from the technical point of view of hosting (therefore with a much more delicate balance to maintain between population / stream of revenue / cost).

• Like somebody else said, there's the "wait and see" crowd that is still undecided;
• Like it or not, pandas will also play a role with both a % of the undecided (wait and see crowd) and current GW2 customers;
• Last but not least, technical issues: how long till the "big stuff" is fixed?

These 3 factors alone are variables of such magnitude that at the moment is quite difficult to predict anything.

Surely this business model it's quite the "experiment", but given the numbers and all the variables involved, "after 1 month" doesn't sound a statistically relevant metric for this unconventional product.

 

No matter the result, it's quite a milestone for the mmo industry and will surely influence future releases' business model in the upcoming years.

dzoni87

  Oh, maaan, how great it is to see people who "picked side" and are having the crystal ball that gives most accurate "prediction" even at the very page one of thread.

  As for my "prediction" i can see this game had a 20%+- of player base it has now. Some may get bored and some may go and try Mists of Pandaland. On the other hand, word of mouth can spread better than expected. They already put digital sales on hiatus because of server overload. However, we still have 3 weeks from now, so everything is possible.

  One more thing: if game is to die, as some had predicted, it wont happen after one month. Even SWTOR didnt died that fast (in fact it is alive still) and it have monthly fee...

Syno23

Originally posted by DMKano

Originally posted by umcorian
What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week? 

Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.

What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.

Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.

Except for the fact that the game isn't subscription based so the only way to tell if the game failed would to look at the expansion numbers.

Calhoun619

My prediction is I dont give a crap what other ppl are doing im enjoying the hell out of the game and will continue to enjoy it for a long time.

I mean come on man who really cares about this stuff. Why not just play what you enjoy why do we need these posts for every single new mmo that comes out?

Play what you want to play. Period.

Also this game is B2P how is this even relevant? Its not like theres a sub fee to pay the game is yours no matter what.