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SWTOR over 500K subs as for July 31, 2012.

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  • GorillaGorilla Member UncommonPosts: 2,235
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by DukeTyrion

    I normally find that by the time the actual numbers come out, most of the data has already been factored in by rumours in the market.

     

    Yup, investors and business folk base their multi-million decisions on rumors...

    There is an old adage on the street, 'buy the rumour, sell the news'. Or in EAs case 'short the rumour, buy the news'.

    One thing you can be sure of people like Goldman will dump thier holdings and even get short in accounts that permit it, before downgarding them. In fact if they want to sell EA stock and have a lot of it they might even concider upgrading them to generate willing buyers to sell to. Scandalous eh?

  • GorillaGorilla Member UncommonPosts: 2,235
    Originally posted by Atlan99
    Originally posted by Burntvet
     

    A few of the game devs/publishers on different sites have discussed the "split" on retail sales a few times.

    In general, the RETAILER gets 65%-75% of the box price for physical copies, depending on the retailer. So for physical copies, the publisher is getting the small slice.

    For digitial distribution, the retailer gets in the 25%-30% range, for a major release large title.

    And even on the Origin sales (EA's distributor) I guarantee that they split out a similar amount even though it was an EA product being sold, because any such "sales commission" would be outside any revenue sharing deal with the IP holder, i.e. EA gets to keep that 25% off the top before paying anyone else, same as if another site sold the copies. So it would be profit for Origin. A technicality, but still money not going back into the TOR pot.

     

    This $50-$60 a box crap going to EA that people throw around makes me laugh.

     

    Your logic is so flawed I don't know what to say. When EA makes, publishes and distributes a game it makes all of that money. 

    100%

    When they make a digital sale through origin they make 100% of the money. 

    Shhhh don't tell Lucas.

  • GorillaGorilla Member UncommonPosts: 2,235

    Last post for now to this rather entertaining thread. This Yahoo chart shows EA's stock price, it would be easy to make it look like a shocking decline but it also has Activision and the NASDAQ as a whole on there so no shenanigans. It still isnt pretty.

    https://www.google.co.uk/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1343419200000&chddm=101585&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC;NASDAQ:ATVI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NASDAQ:EA&&fct=big

    Needs flash
  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by iceman00Ever hear of speculators?  Maybe not rumors, but you make decisions based on hunches, anecdotal info, etc.  Rarely can you make moves off of clearly hard facts. 

    Yes, those make the little waves and fluctuations I talked about, however they have no impact on trends which is what was discussed here.

  • JimmyYOJimmyYO Member UncommonPosts: 519
    Originally posted by jacklo

    Funny... the feedback on most forums is people wouldn't play it EVEN if it was free to play.

    Personally I wouldn't give it room on my hard drive now.

    Sad but true. Hard Drive space is worth significantly more then another bad WoW clone. Clone Wars indeed.

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by JimmyYO

    Sad but true. Hard Drive space is worth significantly more then another bad WoW clone. Clone Wars indeed.

    I wish people would apply same rules to posting on forums...

  • thamighty213thamighty213 Member UncommonPosts: 1,637
    Originally posted by observer

    2:03: Disappointing performance of Star Wars: The Old Republic was offset by powerful performance of Battlefield 3.

    They really think people are going to believe that?  No sane person would believe that spin.

    How so,  BF3 was a massive success far beyond what EA predicted smashing all the figures for market share they had predicted.  So BF3 did offset the poor performance of SWTOR from an investor standpoint. Many will point to a decline in share price post SWTOR but if you look at it further back the decline had been happening for a few months prior to SWTOR and had impacted every company.

  • RydesonRydeson Member UncommonPosts: 3,852
    Originally posted by Souldrainer
    Originally posted by ktanner3
    Originally posted by strangelvbm

    I forsee one major issue with this FTP plan . They are basically giving away the best parts of the game (leveling/story 1-50) and charging for end game stuff (which most people will, including Bioware themselves, admit wasn't ready for prime time). Why do you think they hyped the Legacy system which was basically all about rolling alts. They KNEW the end game wasn't up to par.

    I unsubbed three months ago (didn't even log in for that free month they threw me), but it had nothing to do with the money. I will gladly pay 15 bucks a month for a game that I feel deserves it. SWTOR didn't.  The game is completely static. Nothing you do matters one iota. The choices you make IN YOUR OWN STORY don't even make a difference. And this coming from Bioware!? 

    Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see them turn this thing around, because a failure of this game will pretty much be a death sentence for future Star Wars MMOs. But from what I've seen by the direction they appear to be heading..........I just don't see it happening. 

    They are trying to fix a sinking ship by bailing out the water instead of patching the holes. Both methods are important, but one without the other and you are still sinking.

    I don't understand this move either. Unless they plan to charge for alt rolling I don't see this being successful. Or unless they REALLY do plan on adding more stuff for end game because that is the game's biggest weakness. 

     

    They are already displaying some vanity items. Vanity items are a proven seller in many games. In fact, Path of Exile plans to make 100% of its money from vanity items.


         My guess is that F2P is going to be less on vanity items and more on pay to unlock the game.. Sure you'll get 1 character slot or so that you can take to 50 on a very restricted account.. If you want chat?  PAY.... If you want credits?  PAY... If you want alts?  PAY..  If you want inventory slots?  PAY.... you get the idea.. 

  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332
    Originally posted by Burntvet
    Originally posted by Atlan99

    I guess you missed the word TECHNICALITY. Even so...

    And then there is Origin: When they sell a copy of an EA product, a percentage of that sale, commensurate with what other sites/digital retailers get, gets put into a little a box titled: "Origin Revenue". Yes, that money goes back to big EA revenue eventually, but not at the front end, which was the whole point.

    Perhaps you might look into how corporations are run or perhaps work for one, before talking ignorantly about corporate finance.

    Things run this way BECAUSE more direct revenue from TOR sales would go back to EA, in the form of a "sales commission" than as part of general TOR revenue. As sales commissions are outside the general revenue sharing agreements (between EA, LA and whomever else)  for things like TOR, EA gets to keep the slice of Origin sales, and LA gets nothing. That is why they do it.

    Sneaky, but fully legal.

     

    You were trying to be clever and failed.

    Origin revenue is EA revenue. Any subsiduary of EA that makes revenue means EA made revenue. It's that simple.

  • GorillaGorilla Member UncommonPosts: 2,235
    Originally posted by thamighty213
    .... Many will point to a decline in share price post SWTOR but if you look at it further back the decline had been happening for a few months prior to SWTOR and had impacted every company.

    See the chart I posted a few posts back EA down 50% where as the general market and activision up a percent or two.

    this one

    https://www.google.co.uk/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1343419200000&chddm=101585&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC;NASDAQ:ATVI&cmptdms=0;0&q=NASDAQ:EA&&fct=big

     

     

  • GdemamiGdemami Member EpicPosts: 12,342


    Originally posted by Gorilla

    See the chart I posted a few posts back EA down 50% where as the general market and activision up a percent or two.Dosen't want to re link it seems. :{

    The point is, people claimed that share price started to decline with SWTOR release which is not true.

    The price started to fall in July 2011 and hitting the resistance level in November same year. Before SWTOR even launched.

  • erictlewiserictlewis Member UncommonPosts: 3,022
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Gorilla

    See the chart I posted a few posts back EA down 50% where as the general market and activision up a percent or two.

     

    Dosen't want to re link it seems. :{

     


     

    The point is, people claimed that share price started to decline with SWTOR release which is not true.

    The price started to fall in July 2011 and hitting the resistance level in November same year. Before SWTOR even launched.

    I wonder how much low the stock has to drop before NASDAQ list the stock as junk status and totally devalue their stock. It seams to be steady the past few days at 11 to 12 bucks.   And yes the past 2 years have seen this stock underperform, and the investors on the call last week on wednesday asked for the ceo's head. Only to be told that he was ok, and they were trying to do things to make the stock go up, and they were angry that the stock was being short sold by their own investors. I guess that is why they are trying to buy back the stock, so they can gain control back over it.

     

  • Crazy_StickCrazy_Stick Member Posts: 1,059
    Originally posted by Rydeson
    Originally posted by Souldrainer
    Originally posted by ktanner3
    Originally posted by strangelvbm

    I forsee one major issue with this FTP plan . They are basically giving away the best parts of the game (leveling/story 1-50) and charging for end game stuff (which most people will, including Bioware themselves, admit wasn't ready for prime time). Why do you think they hyped the Legacy system which was basically all about rolling alts. They KNEW the end game wasn't up to par.

    I unsubbed three months ago (didn't even log in for that free month they threw me), but it had nothing to do with the money. I will gladly pay 15 bucks a month for a game that I feel deserves it. SWTOR didn't.  The game is completely static. Nothing you do matters one iota. The choices you make IN YOUR OWN STORY don't even make a difference. And this coming from Bioware!? 

    Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see them turn this thing around, because a failure of this game will pretty much be a death sentence for future Star Wars MMOs. But from what I've seen by the direction they appear to be heading..........I just don't see it happening. 

    They are trying to fix a sinking ship by bailing out the water instead of patching the holes. Both methods are important, but one without the other and you are still sinking.

    I don't understand this move either. Unless they plan to charge for alt rolling I don't see this being successful. Or unless they REALLY do plan on adding more stuff for end game because that is the game's biggest weakness. 

     

    They are already displaying some vanity items. Vanity items are a proven seller in many games. In fact, Path of Exile plans to make 100% of its money from vanity items.


         My guess is that F2P is going to be less on vanity items and more on pay to unlock the game.. Sure you'll get 1 character slot or so that you can take to 50 on a very restricted account.. If you want chat?  PAY.... If you want credits?  PAY... If you want alts?  PAY..  If you want inventory slots?  PAY.... you get the idea.. 

     

    If they get that greedy with it... then I fear the backlash might leave SOE looking like a good company to model after once more. ;)  Free to play is a difficult thing to get right. Just ask the Allods team. EA Bioware claimed they had been looking at what other F2P games have done with sucess. I have my own hopes regarding which way they shoould go. But for the moment, all we have to puzzle over is a dinky little chart that doesn't really tell anyone enough to know.

  • WayshubaWayshuba Member UncommonPosts: 72

    I think something most are missing:

    EA reported the decline last quarter from 1.7M to 1.3M. Now they are vague in the asseertions (below a million but well above 500k). The "well above" is with quite a bit a vagueness (is 50k well above or 450k well above?). Fact is, they felt inclined to add the million in to make things sound better. They also were specific last quarter and gave an extremely large range this quarter. That alone tells you they are probably just above 500k at the moment.

    Let's still give them the benefit of the doubt here and say it is near the middle at 700k (though, knowing EA, I'm feel it is more like 525k-550k actual which they are considering well above). That is still another 600k that dropped through quarters, meaning the three month subs tailed off. It also means, last quarters report of 1.3M was total BS because it was carried by the free month, same as the six month subs which are carried over from this quarter. In other words, the six months subs that have left or cancelled are still be counted by EA. This will become obvious in the next quarter so the F2P is needed to mask the true decline of all P2P subs.

    So all told, without the free month added that extended subs over quarter reporting, you probably have something that looks more like this:

    2.4M box sales

    1.7M initial subs

    800k subs lost by end of Q1 (so 900k left)

    Another 350k lost by end of Q2 (so down to 550k)

    And, once the cancelled six monthers (such as myself) finally get reported correctly, another 250k-300k there so 250k-300k true subs left. This number seems reasonable given the server reductions (down to 23), the tracking of concorrent logins versus population, the two rounds of layoffs (with some rumors of more coming after the F2P conversion), and the departure of a lot of senior staff.

    All told, with a little homework, you can see this game has crashed very, very hard and EA is doing everything they can to cover up the true numbers of what is really happening.

  • spaniard81spaniard81 Member Posts: 59
    Originally posted by Wayshuba

    I think something most are missing:

    EA reported the decline last quarter from 1.7M to 1.3M. Now they are vague in the asseertions (below a million but well above 500k). The "well above" is with quite a bit a vagueness (is 50k well above or 450k well above?). Fact is, they felt inclined to add the million in to make things sound better. They also were specific last quarter and gave an extremely large range this quarter. That alone tells you they are probably just above 500k at the moment.

    Let's still give them the benefit of the doubt here and say it is near the middle at 700k (though, knowing EA, I'm feel it is more like 525k-550k actual which they are considering well above). That is still another 600k that dropped through quarters, meaning the three month subs tailed off. It also means, last quarters report of 1.3M was total BS because it was carried by the free month, same as the six month subs which are carried over from this quarter. In other words, the six months subs that have left or cancelled are still be counted by EA. This will become obvious in the next quarter so the F2P is needed to mask the true decline of all P2P subs.

    So all told, without the free month added that extended subs over quarter reporting, you probably have something that looks more like this:

    2.4M box sales

    1.7M initial subs

    800k subs lost by end of Q1 (so 900k left)

    Another 350k lost by end of Q2 (so down to 550k)

    And, once the cancelled six monthers (such as myself) finally get reported correctly, another 250k-300k there so 250k-300k true subs left. This number seems reasonable given the server reductions (down to 23), the tracking of concorrent logins versus population, the two rounds of layoffs (with some rumors of more coming after the F2P conversion), and the departure of a lot of senior staff.

    All told, with a little homework, you can see this game has crashed very, very hard and EA is doing everything they can to cover up the true numbers of what is really happening.

    I agree... for the most part.

    The interesting thing for me is the number 500,000, as being well over 500k. If they had 750k, they prob would have said "well over 700k". Case in point, all of this demonstrates that the article by Forbes in regards to EA was spot on.

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Member Posts: 4,990
    Originally posted by Wayshuba

    I think something most are missing:

    EA reported the decline last quarter from 1.7M to 1.3M. Now they are vague in the asseertions (below a million but well above 500k). The "well above" is with quite a bit a vagueness (is 50k well above or 450k well above?). Fact is, they felt inclined to add the million in to make things sound better. They also were specific last quarter and gave an extremely large range this quarter. That alone tells you they are probably just above 500k at the moment.

    Let's still give them the benefit of the doubt here and say it is near the middle at 700k (though, knowing EA, I'm feel it is more like 525k-550k actual which they are considering well above). That is still another 600k that dropped through quarters, meaning the three month subs tailed off. It also means, last quarters report of 1.3M was total BS because it was carried by the free month, same as the six month subs which are carried over from this quarter. In other words, the six months subs that have left or cancelled are still be counted by EA. This will become obvious in the next quarter so the F2P is needed to mask the true decline of all P2P subs.   

     Yeah...pretty clear the actual number of subs is somewhere between 500k and 600k. They wouldn't have went with such a low figure compared to the million if it was higher. No reason to. Main reason they gave that range is to try and stave off people getting alarmed by how badly their subs have dropped.   

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • DibdabsDibdabs Member RarePosts: 3,202
    Originally posted by jacklo

    Funny... the feedback on most forums is people wouldn't play it EVEN if it was free to play.

    Personally I wouldn't give it room on my hard drive now.

    I don't think I'll keep it on my hard drive either, when I stop playing in a couple of months.  In all too short a time I've been there, seen everything they offered, and the replay value is effectively zero after you've played a few alts, because the class quests are revealed as just minor variations of each other.

    I wouldn't say SWtOR is bad, it just isn't good enough, and EA/BW won't be throwing much more money or design time at a lame duck.

  • JounarJounar Member UncommonPosts: 142
    Originally posted by spaniard81
    Originally posted by Wayshuba

    I think something most are missing:

    EA reported the decline last quarter from 1.7M to 1.3M. Now they are vague in the asseertions (below a million but well above 500k). The "well above" is with quite a bit a vagueness (is 50k well above or 450k well above?). Fact is, they felt inclined to add the million in to make things sound better. They also were specific last quarter and gave an extremely large range this quarter. That alone tells you they are probably just above 500k at the moment.

    Let's still give them the benefit of the doubt here and say it is near the middle at 700k (though, knowing EA, I'm feel it is more like 525k-550k actual which they are considering well above). That is still another 600k that dropped through quarters, meaning the three month subs tailed off. It also means, last quarters report of 1.3M was total BS because it was carried by the free month, same as the six month subs which are carried over from this quarter. In other words, the six months subs that have left or cancelled are still be counted by EA. This will become obvious in the next quarter so the F2P is needed to mask the true decline of all P2P subs.

    So all told, without the free month added that extended subs over quarter reporting, you probably have something that looks more like this:

    2.4M box sales

    1.7M initial subs

    800k subs lost by end of Q1 (so 900k left)

    Another 350k lost by end of Q2 (so down to 550k)

    And, once the cancelled six monthers (such as myself) finally get reported correctly, another 250k-300k there so 250k-300k true subs left. This number seems reasonable given the server reductions (down to 23), the tracking of concorrent logins versus population, the two rounds of layoffs (with some rumors of more coming after the F2P conversion), and the departure of a lot of senior staff.

    All told, with a little homework, you can see this game has crashed very, very hard and EA is doing everything they can to cover up the true numbers of what is really happening.

    I agree... for the most part.

    The interesting thing for me is the number 500,000, as being well over 500k. If they had 750k, they prob would have said "well over 700k". Case in point, all of this demonstrates that the article by Forbes in regards to EA was spot on.

    The "more than 500k but less than a million subs" is just more PR BS from EA on the huge drop in sub numbers since launch. Even tho the 500k figure is ment to be a few months old my guess would be around the 549k mark at best for that point in time which would back up what people have seen ingame.

    I wonder if F2P will hit before the next investor meeting so EA can claim to have massive amounts of players logging into TOR and fudge the numbers some yet again.

  • maxjammaxjam Member UncommonPosts: 44
    Originally posted by spaniard81
    Originally posted by Wayshuba

    I think something most are missing:

    EA reported the decline last quarter from 1.7M to 1.3M. Now they are vague in the asseertions (below a million but well above 500k). The "well above" is with quite a bit a vagueness (is 50k well above or 450k well above?). Fact is, they felt inclined to add the million in to make things sound better. They also were specific last quarter and gave an extremely large range this quarter. That alone tells you they are probably just above 500k at the moment.

    Let's still give them the benefit of the doubt here and say it is near the middle at 700k (though, knowing EA, I'm feel it is more like 525k-550k actual which they are considering well above). That is still another 600k that dropped through quarters, meaning the three month subs tailed off. It also means, last quarters report of 1.3M was total BS because it was carried by the free month, same as the six month subs which are carried over from this quarter. In other words, the six months subs that have left or cancelled are still be counted by EA. This will become obvious in the next quarter so the F2P is needed to mask the true decline of all P2P subs.

    So all told, without the free month added that extended subs over quarter reporting, you probably have something that looks more like this:

    2.4M box sales

    1.7M initial subs

    800k subs lost by end of Q1 (so 900k left)

    Another 350k lost by end of Q2 (so down to 550k)

    And, once the cancelled six monthers (such as myself) finally get reported correctly, another 250k-300k there so 250k-300k true subs left. This number seems reasonable given the server reductions (down to 23), the tracking of concorrent logins versus population, the two rounds of layoffs (with some rumors of more coming after the F2P conversion), and the departure of a lot of senior staff.

    All told, with a little homework, you can see this game has crashed very, very hard and EA is doing everything they can to cover up the true numbers of what is really happening.

    I agree... for the most part.

    The interesting thing for me is the number 500,000, as being well over 500k. If they had 750k, they prob would have said "well over 700k". Case in point, all of this demonstrates that the article by Forbes in regards to EA was spot on.

     

    I would say thats pretty accurate.  They gave a broad range (500k - 1m) to cover the actual facts (probably a lot nearer to 500k than 1m)

    You also have to bear in mind that the 6 month subscribers such as myself (with all the free time we have been given) still have approx 2 weeks worth of game time left.  I cancelled my sub approx 4 months ago and haven't touched SWTOR since, I would expect the subscribers figures to take another hit very soon :/

  • BurntvetBurntvet Member RarePosts: 3,465
    Originally posted by Atlan99
    Originally posted by Burntvet
    Originally posted by Atlan99

    I guess you missed the word TECHNICALITY. Even so...

    And then there is Origin: When they sell a copy of an EA product, a percentage of that sale, commensurate with what other sites/digital retailers get, gets put into a little a box titled: "Origin Revenue". Yes, that money goes back to big EA revenue eventually, but not at the front end, which was the whole point.

    Perhaps you might look into how corporations are run or perhaps work for one, before talking ignorantly about corporate finance.

    Things run this way BECAUSE more direct revenue from TOR sales would go back to EA, in the form of a "sales commission" than as part of general TOR revenue. As sales commissions are outside the general revenue sharing agreements (between EA, LA and whomever else)  for things like TOR, EA gets to keep the slice of Origin sales, and LA gets nothing. That is why they do it.

    Sneaky, but fully legal.

     

    You were trying to be clever and failed.

    Origin revenue is EA revenue. Any subsiduary of EA that makes revenue means EA made revenue. It's that simple.

    And yet, you miss the last obvious step: EA revenue =/= TOR revenue and vice versa.

    Which was the point: the money NOT going back into the TOR pot, maybe I'll use smaller words next time for clarity.

     

  • nightsoftnightsoft Member Posts: 15

    Looks like most "in the know", so to speak, put the game at somewhere north of 800k in subs, bleeding subs at the rate of about 100k a month. Rumors are they expect a big dip shortly when the six month subs run out.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919

    As far as the 500k goes that was for the game to be profitable on a day-to-day basis; probably less now as they downsize. To "make a profit but nothing to write home about" (JR, CEO of EA quote) they needed 1M subs.

    Origin sales commission etc. - EA have probably agreed to pay LA a sun of money; upfront, in sinstalments - whatever. They may have agreed a smaller sum and then an amount per subscriber, possibly; depends how bull-ish they were feeling (risk-reward ration). And the agreement will have been made years ago - presumably by Bioware.

     Number of subs? Odd really that EA didn't give a more accurate figure. They must have the data. Suggests the worse.

  • EsLafielEsLafiel Member Posts: 92
    Originally posted by Ambros123

    [mod edit]

    Sorry no, not saying gw2 will be the next big thing. But it will have at lesta  steady 3-5mil+ players for years to come.

    Play it my self, and it does make questing much better, it not missing anything. Pvp is fun as hell, among so many other things. Unlike Swtor which ingore the fan base during the beta and kept making it how they want to.

     

    ArenaNet have always listen to what the player says and done a great job in keeping there first game up to date and always adding in major free content. With 3 expansions as big as wow expansions(which cost the same as WoW expansions.). Right as I compain during the beta that the dodge ui was mess up, and no way to tell how much you had. A dev commented back at me in less then a hr and ask me how I might see it as being better. It not know exactly how I said, but it design really well now.

    Plus WoW vannile dev team is gone, it was the north team that made WoW and they gone. Which most of them switch over to ArenaNet.

     

    Lastly gw1 sold 7mil copies(not counting the expansions). So it already at lest have a good size fan base. Who knows how Arenanet work. 

     

    So if they work as hard on gw2(and seem so so far,) as they did on gw1. Then it will be a good game, and will be fun to play.

  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332
    Originally posted by Burntvet

    And yet, you miss the last obvious step: EA revenue =/= TOR revenue and vice versa.

    Which was the point: the money NOT going back into the TOR pot, maybe I'll use smaller words next time for clarity.

     

    TOR revenue is EA Revenue.

  • SouldrainerSouldrainer Member Posts: 1,857
    Originally posted by hh33

    [mod edit]

     

    So... you just randomly post in threads without checking facts, or even reading the thread? Seems convenient.

    Error: 37. Signature not found. Please connect to my server for signature access.

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