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Alright let's do this - Sales predictions after two months

ValuaValua Member Posts: 520

I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

 

I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

 

5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

 

7-10 million sales by the years end.

 

(I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

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Comments

  • KeyloggerKeylogger Member Posts: 250

    The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.

     

    TLDR

     

    1-2m less than last expansion.

     

    US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.

     

     

  • eye_meye_m Member UncommonPosts: 3,317

    does it release globally at the same time, or is it just NA and EU?

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  • TrionicusTrionicus Member UncommonPosts: 498
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    I can't stress enough how reading this blog made me think about WOW subs differently.

  • ValuaValua Member Posts: 520
    Originally posted by Cinatrot

    The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.

     

    TLDR

     

    1-2m less than last expansion.

     

    US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.

     

     

     

    Just out of curiosity, have you actually played Mists of Pandaria? The beta I mean?

     

    I have, because I got an annual pass (mainly for Diablo3) But I honestly think Pandaria is the best expansion to date (not much competition really, they've all been quite bad.)

     

    I think Pandaria will actually boost WoW's sales, something an expansion has never done before, they normally just retain the numbers.

     

    Mists of Pandaria will probably will MMORPG Of The Year, but this will be the only time I actually think it deserves it, it has changed WoW, it feels more like vanilla again. (Yes I've played GW2, TSW etc and they are good, but Pandaria deserves the award mainly because it has changed WoW for the better, something that hasn't been done in so long.)

     

    And I really don't think there will be any server merges, none at all, at least not for a number of years. They will continue to have free transfers off low servers, but thats it.

     

    WoW fanboi rant over :)

  • ValuaValua Member Posts: 520
    Originally posted by Trionicus
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    I can't stress enough how reading this blog made me think about WOW subs differently.

     

    That website is very old, and the numbers in the image are WELL OFF. 

     

    It says original WoW has sold under 12 million in its lifetime, when in fact it's probably closer to 30-60 million.

  • expressoexpresso Member UncommonPosts: 2,218

    Do we even have official 1 year sales? blizzard do put out 24 hour and 1 month sales figures and if the trend continues MOP will sell more than Cata, just as cata sold more than Wrath and Wrath  more then TBC 

    Cata sold 4.7million in it's first month  source: http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/press/pressreleases.html?110110

    I predict MOP first month sakes will be close to Cata's could be a little under or over but it wont be by much, breaking 5 million in the first month will be hard - remember expansions don't hit China at the same time so the 4.7 million of cata was excluding chinese players who apparently make up the majority, thus MOP will be in the same situation.

    So my prediction of 1st month MOP sales are 4.7million +/- 10% 

  • vmopedvmoped Member Posts: 1,708
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    I dont agree with these numbers since outside of US/EU the expansions are free to the Asian market.  They pay by the hour.  So if the game has ~10 million globally with ~4 mill in US/EU I fail to see how they will sell more than ~4 million copies (or more than however many EU/US customers they may currently have, this was the last number I read).

    Cheers!

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  • kb4blukb4blu Member UncommonPosts: 717
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.    -1

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.   -1

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.   -1

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

     

    Just trying to make your figures more accurate.  :)

     

  • KeyloggerKeylogger Member Posts: 250
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by Cinatrot

    The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.

     

    TLDR

     

    1-2m less than last expansion.

     

    US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.

     

     

    I think Pandaria will actually boost WoW's sales, something an expansion has never done before, they normally just retain the numbers.

     

    Mists of Pandaria will probably will MMORPG Of The Year, but this will be the only time I actually think it deserves it, it has changed WoW, it feels more like vanilla again. (Yes I've played GW2, TSW etc and they are good, but Pandaria deserves the award mainly because it has changed WoW for the better, something that hasn't been done in so long.)

     

    WoW fanboi rant over :)

     

    I hope they pay you more than minimum wage.

  • EiviEivi Member Posts: 96
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    I think that people will be hessitant initially due to the D3 issues, but will more than likely make those figures.

    image
  • tordurbartordurbar Member UncommonPosts: 420

    I have no ideas what the numbers will be but I will say that MOP will not do as well as the other expansions. My reasoning is from experience. The release date for MOP was announced yesterday. I know it is stupid as Blizzard charges you as soon as you order but I have the money now (and may not have it on release) so I ordered the game. Unlike every other expansion I had no issues - no queues, no lag. I got in at once and was able to order and get my receipt. I always had to fight a crowd before - not with MOP. Thus, with my un-scientific research I say that MOP will not do as well as Cata (even with the Pet/Pokemon game).

  • waynejr2waynejr2 Member EpicPosts: 7,768
    Originally posted by Trionicus
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    I can't stress enough how reading this blog made me think about WOW subs differently.

    Why do you have a deep need to believe "this blog"?

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  • lilHealalilHeala Member UncommonPosts: 522


    Originally posted by Valua

    Originally posted by Cinatrot The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.   TLDR   1-2m less than last expansion.   US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.    
      Mists of Pandaria will probably will MMORPG Of The Year, but this will be the only time I actually think it deserves it, it has changed WoW, it feels more like vanilla again. (Yes I've played GW2, TSW etc and they are good, but Pandaria deserves the award mainly because it has changed WoW for the better, something that hasn't been done in so long.)  
    Expansion of the year it might earn/deserve if it's indeed good. But WoW being game the year in this time and age, more like game of yesteryear ;)
  • NadiaNadia Member UncommonPosts: 11,798
    Originally posted by expresso

    Do we even have official 1 year sales? blizzard do put out 24 hour and 1 month sales figures and if the trend continues MOP will sell more than Cata, just as cata sold more than Wrath and Wrath  more then TBC 

    Cata sold 4.7million in it's first month  source: http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/press/pressreleases.html?110110

    I predict MOP first month sakes will be close to Cata's could be a little under or over but it wont be by much, breaking 5 million in the first month will be hard - remember expansions don't hit China at the same time so the 4.7 million of cata was excluding chinese players who apparently make up the majority

    my prediction:

    MOP will be the first expansion to sell less than the previous expansion (for the same regions)

  • KarteliKarteli Member CommonPosts: 2,646
    Originally posted by Valua

    I seen this post on some other game and thought it would be good to do it here too. 

     

    I'm predicting 2-3 million sales on day one.

     

    5-7 million sales by the end of two months.

     

    7-10 million sales by the years end.

     

    (I've pretty much said what every other expansion has done, maybe it will do better, maybe worse.)

    Since the Chinese account for more than 50% of WoW's 10 million population these days (mmodata.net + Netease revenue increases + invester call data over the past year), and considering Chinese citizens get WoW expansions for free, ummm you're saying that MoP sales will be 3 times the total number of current EU+NA subscribers ..

     

    I doubt this.  My guild split up to play other games, and MoP doesn't seem interesting.  Cataclysm will likely be my last Blizzard purchase (since Activision has now corrupted this once good company, from the inside out).  Cataclysm sold somewhere over 4 mil total copies.

     

    MoP sales? ~ 2-3 mil .. Maybe more, but that would only be if GW2 + other games bombed out, which I suppose could happen.

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  • GaborikGaborik Member Posts: 251
    5,000,000 Gold Farmers
    4,324,567 Hackers
    100,000 12 yr old
    5 above the age 12
  • coretex666coretex666 Member EpicPosts: 3,707

    5 mil after two months

  • BeackerBeacker Member UncommonPosts: 440
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by Cinatrot

    The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.

     

    TLDR

     

    1-2m less than last expansion.

     

    US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.

     

     

     

    Just out of curiosity, have you actually played Mists of Pandaria? The beta I mean?

     

    I have, because I got an annual pass (mainly for Diablo3) But I honestly think Pandaria is the best expansion to date (not much competition really, they've all been quite bad.)

     

    I think Pandaria will actually boost WoW's sales, something an expansion has never done before, they normally just retain the numbers.

     

    Mists of Pandaria will probably will MMORPG Of The Year, but this will be the only time I actually think it deserves it, it has changed WoW, it feels more like vanilla again. (Yes I've played GW2, TSW etc and they are good, but Pandaria deserves the award mainly because it has changed WoW for the better, something that hasn't been done in so long.)

     

    And I really don't think there will be any server merges, none at all, at least not for a number of years. They will continue to have free transfers off low servers, but thats it.

     

    WoW fanboi rant over :)

    This is all your matter of opinion. Time will tell how this one plays out but a lot of WoW people are turned off by this expansion. It can go either way. You may be right or you may be wrong no one knows for sure until it launches. Even at the lowest amount of expansions bought it still will sell millions.

  • ValuaValua Member Posts: 520
    Originally posted by Cinatrot
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by Cinatrot

    The ones who bought Cataclysm and felt burned (myself included) to the point that they started giving it away for free will be more than a little hesistant with purchasing My Little Panda.

     

    TLDR

     

    1-2m less than last expansion.

     

    US/EU servers will finally have to be merged when 30% of the current playerbase jumps ship in disgust.

     

     

    I think Pandaria will actually boost WoW's sales, something an expansion has never done before, they normally just retain the numbers.

     

    Mists of Pandaria will probably will MMORPG Of The Year, but this will be the only time I actually think it deserves it, it has changed WoW, it feels more like vanilla again. (Yes I've played GW2, TSW etc and they are good, but Pandaria deserves the award mainly because it has changed WoW for the better, something that hasn't been done in so long.)

     

    WoW fanboi rant over :)

     

    I hope they pay you more than minimum wage.

    Sorry for having an opinion on a game I enjoy.

     

    Because hating on WoW is popular does not mean you are popular.

     

    Also, I've read through some of your post history, you clearly just hate WoW, most of your post history is slamming WoW. 

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Member RarePosts: 4,303

    4-5 million

  • slickbizzleslickbizzle Member Posts: 464

    Since it's a free download in China, I'll say 4-5 million global sales total. I firmly believe the people that left during Cata will not be able to resist checking it out.

  • ValuaValua Member Posts: 520

    Cataclysm sold 4.7 million copies in the first month, more than Wrath of the Lich King (4.1 million in first month) and Wotlk sold more initially than Burning Crusade (3.5 in first month.) 

     

    I'm thinking this could be a trend, and Mists of Pandaria will see more sales than Cataclysm (especially with the lack of good MMO's out there.) 

     

    I'm thinking just 4.9million - 5.5million in the first month.

     

    Pandaria has the power to not only bring people back to the game, but also gain new players, it's actually that good. (But maybe my opinion is just tarnished becuase I disliked Cataclysm so much and anything new would seem better? I still think Panaria is WoWs best expansion to date.)

  • dllddlld Member UncommonPosts: 605

    I don't think it will break sales record again, especially not when it releases so close AFTER another top quality mmo then there's also SWToR Tera rift and TSW all taking a little slice of players for themselves, blizzard hasn't had this much quality competition ever.

    It will still sell good and be the biggest mmo just not break the previous sale record imo.

  • fivorothfivoroth Member UncommonPosts: 3,916
    Originally posted by Gaborik
    5,000,000 Gold Farmers 4,324,567 Hackers 100,000 12 yr old 5 above the age 12

    I know you desperately need to believe this so I will agree with you.

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  • AzrileAzrile Member Posts: 2,582
    Originally posted by Valua

    Cataclysm sold 4.7 million copies in the first month, more than Wrath of the Lich King (4.1 million in first month) and Wotlk sold more initially than Burning Crusade (3.5 in first month.) 

     

    I'm thinking this could be a trend, and Mists of Pandaria will see more sales than Cataclysm (especially with the lack of good MMO's out there.) 

     

    I'm thinking just 4.9million - 5.5million in the first month.

     

    Pandaria has the power to not only bring people back to the game, but also gain new players, it's actually that good. (But maybe my opinion is just tarnished becuase I disliked Cataclysm so much and anything new would seem better? I still think Panaria is WoWs best expansion to date.)

    I think it will be a bit less of 4.7M the first month.  As with all other expansions, this only includes the west.  But I do think WOW took some damage as a result of Cata being so ´casual unfriendly´ the first month.

    My prediction is that MoP will BEAT the 1 day record from Cata, but will only sell 4.5M the first month, slightly below Cata.

    I do think Blizzard learned a lot from the Cata launch, you can see it in their commitment to providing more ´non raid, non heroic´ stuff for players to do at level 90.  The scenerios in particular are going to be a HUGE hit, and I think many hardcore mmo players (which frequent forums like this) are understimating the addictiveness of the pokemon mini-game.  It is VERY VERY good and there will be people paying $15 per month and doing almost nothign but that.

    1 day -  beat Cata

    30 day - 4.5M, slightly under Cata

    February conference call -  announcing that the are about 12M subs again.

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