As i've said, i expect GW2 to have great intial sales, but 3 months down the line is when it all starts to become tested. IMHO, there'll be tons of players who'll leave. However, that never mean failure, because if enough remain, it's all good actually. But, future is uncertain as always.
The difference is, when players leave the game, it will be a lot easier for them to come back later because they don't need to re-sub
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
As i've said, i expect GW2 to have great intial sales, but 3 months down the line is when it all starts to become tested. IMHO, there'll be tons of players who'll leave. However, that never mean failure, because if enough remain, it's all good actually. But, future is uncertain as always.
The difference is, when players leave the game, it will be a lot easier for them to come back later because they don't need to re-sub
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
How so? Without a sub fee I can log in again anytime I want, with a sub fee I can't do that
Block the trolls, don't answer them, so we can remove the garbage from these forums
As i've said, i expect GW2 to have great intial sales, but 3 months down the line is when it all starts to become tested. IMHO, there'll be tons of players who'll leave. However, that never mean failure, because if enough remain, it's all good actually. But, future is uncertain as always.
The difference is, when players leave the game, it will be a lot easier for them to come back later because they don't need to re-sub
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
How so? Without a sub fee I can log in again anytime I want, with a sub fee I can't do that
I get that. What i'm trying to say is that, despite being able to ump in, if one doesn't play on a more continous level, it can easily still show.
For example, many players after a few months may jump in and out of the game, cool, but if they only do it from time to time n short bursts, it doesn't help te pop all that much compared to a stable playerbase every month.
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
You can freely move to higher population servers except for WvW.
Do you believe a game like WoW has the same 10 million playing all the time?
They keep coming and going - with GW2 is a lot easier for a few reasons.
1) Overflow servers - instead of opening tons of named servers, Anet will open less servers than otherwise and will handle the excess through these servers, allowiing them to be more aggressive with higher population counts. Then shut them off without anyone noticing and no need to mergers.
2) It is easier to just follow the impulse of going back in a game if you don't have to dish an extra $15 for the privelege of log in.
3) Anet is experience with AI companions and NPCs.
4) The largest group required is 5 people.
5) Anet ran a healthy amount of events with GW1 and has already shown they can create content really quickly like with the corrupion event.
Currently playing: GW2 Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Because:
PVE- In GW1, everybody auto gathers in the hubs making group finding alot easier, using npcs to help you, or even hide low pop problems. GW2 is going to spread it's playerbase over the world events, story instances, dungeons, etc, making group finding just as much of a problem as normal mmorpgs
PVP- SaMe thing as GW1. No big deal for Structured pvp of course, but WVW even needs more players than pve. While atleast you can guest in pve to make it easier, you're bound to your server for WVW. Low pop on multyple servsers would cause tons of problems for it. Which would lead to necessary server merges, which is never good.
GW1 is fully instanced making pop not even as much of a big deal as a full mmo like all others. Which is why the game can't hang around for months on end with no content or expansion or anything, otherwise problem show up. Sub or not.
I've done some research on this game for the past few years and wasn't planning on buying it until a few days ago. And I'm doing it because I know truly in my heart that this game is going to be successful.
Remember the days when Blizzard created those AWESOME games. Those games that weren't for the money, but was to please gamers throughout the world. Well that Blizzard is gone, and ArenaNet; the company behind Guild Wars 2 is the most successful studio that came outta Blizzard.
So there's one: AreanaNet a studio formed from a very successful company; Blizzard
Number 2: The Guild Wars franchise as a whole as already sold more than 7 million copies. So let's do the math. Let's say that the game sold 1 million copies and raised 50 million dollars from those 1 million copies. Now, the game went on to sell more than 6 million copies TOTAL. So 1 million + 6 million is 7 million. So 6 million copies worth of revenue is 300 million dollars. In subscriber numbers that's 300 million divided by 15 dollars divided by 7 years. That's an average of 2 MILLION subscribers per year!
And yes, I know box sales and expansions. So let's even say, 1.5 million subs. That's a successful MMO.
EDIT: Between 2009 and 2012 the series did sell another million copies.
Number 3: It doesn't compete with all the other MMOs out there. With each MMO that comes out that costs 15 dollars a month. Most people can only afford 2 MMOs at once per month. And others only pay for one. So if you play WoW you won't be playing other MMOs. But if you play other MMOs you won't be playing...you get the point.
Guild Wars 2 doesn't have to compete with that. Meaning that if it can WIN in the F2P market then it's already the WoW of F2P. Not that this game is going to be anything like WoW. Already the difference in revenue models is a good difference.
Number 4: The Guild Wars franchise is already a well known name. Why was Star Wars: The Old Republic so popular from the get go? Because Star Wars was well known. BioWare was well known. And together they created an EXTREMELY hyped game. Hopefully Guild Wars 2 does the same thing and it will instantly becaome successful.
Number 5: The bad economy. Most of us including me just don't have jobs. So we can't afford a 15 dollar a month subscriber fee. And if we can we'll only afford to play one game. So with Guild Wars 2. Those who can come up with the 60 dollars will be able to play a game that won't cost them anything FOREVER! Well until the servers shutdown. In a bad economy, saving isn't such a bad thing.
I am a fan of GW1, and intend to play GW2, but some of your points are a bit off:
Number 2 A significant percentage of GW1's boxes would have been at discount prices. In addition some portion would have been duplicate accounts. Buying a second box of GW at $20 is very different than paying $15 per month for seven years.
Number 3 Whether or not GW2 charges a sub fee there is still competition with other MMOs. Someone will have to decide spend money on a GW2 box vs microtransactions/sub fees in their existing game. Don't get me wrong, it is still an easier decision due to GW2's lack of a sub fee. Then there is the matter of available play time. In addition to a player's money GW2 needs to compete for their time. I don't know about everyone else but, between work, married life, and real life responsibilities, I do not have a ton of time to spare for multiple MMOs, which are much more time intensive than is oftent he case in other genres of gaming.
Number 4 I think that you will find that, "instantly successful," is a bit of a stretch for any game. Obviously this depends on your definition of 'successful', but do you think that even EA/Bioware consider a game that has not met its goals (as stated in marketing releases) to be instantly successful ? Retention is key here. GW2 may not be relying on sub fees, but they are aiming for retained players buying expansion packs, spendingmoney in the cash shop, etc.
Number 5 I agree with aspects of this point, but keep in mind that an unemployment rate of less than 10% does not equate to "most of us...dont have jobs."
When all has been said and done, more will have been said than done.
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
You can freely move to higher population servers except for WvW.
Do you believe a game like WoW has the same 10 million playing all the time?
They keep coming and going - with GW2 is a lot easier for a few reasons.
1) Overflow servers - instead of opening tons of named servers, Anet will open less servers than otherwise and will handle the excess through these servers, allowiing them to be more aggressive with higher population counts. Then shut them off without anyone noticing and no need to mergers.
2) It is easier to just follow the impulse of going back in a game if you don't have to dish an extra $15 for the privelege of log in.
3) Anet is experience with AI companions and NPCs.
4) The largest group required is 5 people.
5) Anet ran a healthy amount of events with GW1 and has already shown they can create content really quickly like with the corrupion event.
The only place where GW2 server population becomes a concern is in WvW... and even then WvW can be done with a few hundred people on 3 different servers (due to the relatively low zone cap and the fact that WvW is spread over 4 zones).
Hello everybody I was the first guy that said this game will rock your world when players where saying it wasnt, another think I did not predict the release date becouse my rlease date prediction wss december 24 so i totally missed but this proves something to me and that is that guild wars 2 will be a well polish game when is release on august so you know this game is going to be a big big succesfull MMO, but how succesfull of a MMO will guild wars 2 be? I will say as succesfull as EVE online? but not as high as WoW and I will tell you why and that will be becouse Guild Wars 2 will not be a Pay To Play Game this will be a Buy To play Game, but that dosent mean that this game will not rock the MMO world Guild Wars 2 will be the Best Free Non Subscribe game in the World and Maybe just Maybe WoW will be DETRONE from the MMO market and Smart people like me will move to Guild Wars 2, I hope Some of Anet Employees as seeing this and I will like to say THANK YOY FOR MAKING A AWSOME GAME I SUPPORT YOUR COUSE .
The only place where GW2 server population becomes a concern is in WvW... and even then WvW can be done with a few hundred people on 3 different servers (due to the relatively low zone cap and the fact that WvW is spread over 4 zones).
Don't forget you can also easily transfer all your characters in one move for a small fee if you feel your server is too empty. In other games, you'd have to pay something like $20 for each character, here you just change your home server.
Respect, walk, what did you say? Respect, walk Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me? - PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Then there's the old crowd, i.e., Ultima, EQ, Dark Age of Camelot, Asheron's Call. We love a more grounded mmorpg that is community rich and truly as believable as can be in regards to the sense of fantasy escapism provided. GW2 is going to be a fun game for lots of folks. I think they did a great job on making it a fun game. But it's a game (an mmoVideo Game), not an mmoRPG.
Well lots of older gamers are going to play Guild Wars 2 because it is exactly what they were expecting from a game for YEARS and no game ever filled the gap, Guild Wars 2 does. It IS a game for the old crowd, where there is no hand-holding and emphasis on actual exploration.
Exactly this.
I have been waiting for a game to live up to what I think a MMO should be since the days of UO.
GW2 isn't perfect, but damn is it really, really good and a hell of a lot of fun.
If/when they ever add player housing, I know I'll have my new MMO home (lol) for a long, long time.
My checklist from UO I've been looking for?
1. PvE about fun, exploration, collecting, adventure - not grinding and gear
2. PvP about territorial control and capture for one's faction, seperate from PvE (Trammel Felucca split)
3. Un-structured/ non hand-holding / non linear game play in PvE
4. Fully cooperative non-competitive PvE
5. Role free group play (no Trinity of "classes")
6. Emergant game play (events, mini games, no restrictions on grouping w/ others etc.) in PvE
7. Awesome housing (I still think GW2 is going to add this down the road)
"It is helpful to take Eric's full statement into account.
He mentioned that there will be no Guild Halls on release as we want to make Guild Halls a great experience and not just a "place". We will introduce player housing at some point after launch, and at that time we will also implement guild halls. "
Respect, walk, what did you say? Respect, walk Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me? - PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Because:
PVE- In GW1, everybody auto gathers in the hubs making group finding alot easier, using npcs to help you, or even hide low pop problems. GW2 is going to spread it's playerbase over the world events, story instances, dungeons, etc, making group finding just as much of a problem as normal mmorpgs
PVP- SaMe thing as GW1. No big deal for Structured pvp of course, but WVW even needs more players than pve. While atleast you can guest in pve to make it easier, you're bound to your server for WVW. Low pop on multyple servsers would cause tons of problems for it. Which would lead to necessary server merges, which is never good.
GW1 is fully instanced making pop not even as much of a big deal as a full mmo like all others. Which is why the game can't hang around for months on end with no content or expansion or anything, otherwise problem show up. Sub or not.
And when you add a sub, it serves to compound the problems you described, not alleviate them.
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Because:
PVE- In GW1, everybody auto gathers in the hubs making group finding alot easier, using npcs to help you, or even hide low pop problems. GW2 is going to spread it's playerbase over the world events, story instances, dungeons, etc, making group finding just as much of a problem as normal mmorpgs
PVP- SaMe thing as GW1. No big deal for Structured pvp of course, but WVW even needs more players than pve. While atleast you can guest in pve to make it easier, you're bound to your server for WVW. Low pop on multyple servsers would cause tons of problems for it. Which would lead to necessary server merges, which is never good.
GW1 is fully instanced making pop not even as much of a big deal as a full mmo like all others. Which is why the game can't hang around for months on end with no content or expansion or anything, otherwise problem show up. Sub or not.
And when you add a sub, it serves to compound the problems you described, not alleviate them.
I never said a sub makes it easier. Of course it doesn't. What i'm trying to say is that going back to GW1 is no problem because it's a lobby game. Jumping in and out from time to time in an mmo is not so usefull if the players only stay for a very short amount of said time. A stable community that is active most of time is what matters, and it means more money, which is what will decide the future of course.
"It is helpful to take Eric's full statement into account.
He mentioned that there will be no Guild Halls on release as we want to make Guild Halls a great experience and not just a "place". We will introduce player housing at some point after launch, and at that time we will also implement guild halls. "
If they implement Housing i rather prefer they do it like in UO or SWG, anything else would just be some extra vault space and a trophy displayment. Although i doubt that will happen as the other games were sandboxes. IF they do however, double thumbs up. Housing needs to have a greater purpose then just a personal space, you should be able to add vendor's and personalise it, so it becomes unique. On a personal note i rather have a housing vendor system then a general Auction Hall.
This way you have to do something to get an item. I think people that have played UO and SWG have memories getting a specific item. Myself i remember speeding around for two days in swg to finaly get a hold of that awesome rifle and in UO roaming around Fel because some vendors there were cheaper and i could resel stuff with profit in Tram.
As creative Arenanet has shown to be i think it will be safe to say they will do a good job.
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Because:
PVE- In GW1, everybody auto gathers in the hubs making group finding alot easier, using npcs to help you, or even hide low pop problems. GW2 is going to spread it's playerbase over the world events, story instances, dungeons, etc, making group finding just as much of a problem as normal mmorpgs
PVP- SaMe thing as GW1. No big deal for Structured pvp of course, but WVW even needs more players than pve. While atleast you can guest in pve to make it easier, you're bound to your server for WVW. Low pop on multyple servsers would cause tons of problems for it. Which would lead to necessary server merges, which is never good.
GW1 is fully instanced making pop not even as much of a big deal as a full mmo like all others. Which is why the game can't hang around for months on end with no content or expansion or anything, otherwise problem show up. Sub or not.
And when you add a sub, it serves to compound the problems you described, not alleviate them.
I never said a sub makes it easier. Of course it doesn't. What i'm trying to say is that going back to GW1 is no problem because it's a lobby game. Jumping in and out from time to time in an mmo is not so usefull if the players only stay for a very short amount of said time. A stable community that is active most of time is what matters, and it means more money, which is what will decide the future of course.
Your assumtion that everyone is going to be jumping out from time to time is really just based on nothing. While it's possible to do that with this game, and I believe it's one of the strengths of the B2P model, the idea that people will do it more often in this game than a sub game is just conjecture. Edit: (People paying subs may not play much anyway. People with subs that are over are less likely to play again.)
I agree with you that having a solid population is important in any MMORPG, but I also think that the B2P model is only going to serve to help strengthen the population, not hinder it. And even you apparently agrre that a sub does not make it easier to alleviate the problems you describe, so what are you even trying to say?
In the business sense I'd say profitable = successful. - I bet A-net has enough pre-purchases already to guarantee profiability.
Some would say that killing WoW would make it successful. - Not a chance of this happening. WoW is too strong a franchise with too much success already under its belt to be "killed" by any single game.
If the game's activity level eclipses that of WoW (the WoW of peak activity that is), then I would say this is a smashing success that would alter the genre permanently. - I have my doubts that A-Net can push it this far, but this seems to be what they are hoping for. I'd say chances are probably less than a coin flip of this happening, but if the game does turn out to be this good we will all be pretty happy gamers.
A viable long-term E-sport is something the genre has craved for years and A-net seems to be trying to create it, maybe that would define success in some way. - At present the game doesn't have a number of the things it would need to flourish as E-sport. It's not to say that it can't happen, only that what I have seen in the betas has not done it. There are a ton of reasons why this genre hasn't had a viable long term E-sport (credit where credit is due, WoW made a decent attempt, but fell short in my opinion). I doubt that even A-net can make it successful this way. I'd say less than 10% chance of this kind of success, simply because it has never been done before and it has been attempted by much larger outfits with deeper pockets and a way bigger dev team.
Your assumtion that everyone is going to be jumping out from time to time is really just based on nothing. While it's possible to do that with this game, and I believe it's one of the strengths of the B2P model, the idea that people will do it more often in this game than a sub game is just conjecture. Edit: (People paying subs may not play much anyway. People with subs that are over are less likely to play again.)
I agree with you that having a solid population is important in any MMORPG, but I also think that the B2P model is only going to serve to help strengthen the population, not hinder it. And even you apparently agrre that a sub does not make it easier to alleviate the problems you describe, so what are you even trying to say?
Wonder whats going to happen if players that planned on just jumping in and out of GW2 during main game downtime or whatnot start to discover that they are actually having more fun and a better experience in GW2 than their supposed sub game of choice?
When the game is as solid as GW2 is there is no weakness in Anets B2P model...
GW2 will only experience growth and im guessing the sub model games in the end will feel it the most...
I expect this to happen to a certain extent but to what extent nobody can know yet..
Edit:
There is a lot of casual players paying subs and being treated like 2nd class gamers just because they have RL issues to contend with and many of these weekend warriors will never get to see much if any of the end game content in these elitist mindset cloned power gamer driven games..
Once they discover that in GW2 they can enjoy epic content as they see fit and are not viewed as second class gamers my guess is many will forget all about the subbed clones and play GW2 when time allows and will enjoy and gain the most from that limited time..
I never said a sub makes it easier. Of course it doesn't. What i'm trying to say is that going back to GW1 is no problem because it's a lobby game. Jumping in and out from time to time in an mmo is not so usefull if the players only stay for a very short amount of said time. A stable community that is active most of time is what matters, and it means more money, which is what will decide the future of course.
Your assumtion that everyone is going to be jumping out from time to time is really just based on nothing. While it's possible to do that with this game, and I believe it's one of the strengths of the B2P model, the idea that people will do it more often in this game than a sub game is just conjecture. Edit: (People paying subs may not play much anyway. People with subs that are over are less likely to play again.)
I agree with you that having a solid population is important in any MMORPG, but I also think that the B2P model is only going to serve to help strengthen the population, not hinder it. And even you apparently agrre that a sub does not make it easier to alleviate the problems you describe, so what are you even trying to say?
I agree with that. GW2 will have a core community just as much as all other mmo, that's for sure. I was simply trying to explain that not having a sub means players can feel less inclined to retun if they're bored of the game. But of course, as i've always believe, the opposite can be true. It also changes from player to player.
It's all very uncertain anyway, and only the future will tell.
I agree with that. GW2 will have a core community just as much as all other mmo, that's for sure. I was simply trying to explain that not having a sub means players can feel less inclined to retun if they're bored of the game. But of course, as i've always believe, the opposite can be true. It also changes from player to player.
It's all very uncertain anyway, and only the future will tell.
Your entire premise seems, to me, as being based on the belief GW2 won't have enough content until more content is out and also because probably you believe non sub fee games won't receive new content.
i don't agree on both premises.
If you remember, WoW was release with like 14 dundeons plus a couple of 10 mans and molten core.
Compared to existing MMORPGS of the time, WoW didn't have that much content.
Massive content alone isn't a reason players stay in a game.
People flocked to WoW because it was a high polished title from a reputable dev, that removed some of the most annoying things the genre incorporated. That allowed it to reach a mass of players that wouldn't play any of the other MMORPGs out there.
GW2 is also a very polished MMORPG that targets some of the most annoying features of the genre.
Additionally I don't see how paying $15 will make players more inclined to return to a game compared to just double clicking the game shortcut.
Currently playing: GW2 Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
Both TSW, GW2 and , well, every mmo will have it's share of trolls an annying people in chat. It's almost the rule actually.
On topic, the OP got is hands on a crystal ball. And didn't people use those crystal balls at the time to say that WAR, AOC, Rift, Aion, TOR, etc would be extremely succeful? Yeah. OP, most mmorpgs end up being a sucess actually, like Rift and produce moeny which is all that matters in the end.
And, what you forget is that GW can out during the year with the least amount of competition. Next year we already have TESO (oh yeah, i'm not liking what i read, but there'll probably be a huge amount of hype)
GW came out months after EQ2 and WoW. I would hardly call that the "least" competition. Sure it was the next "year," technically, but EQ2 and WoW came out in November of the year before, so the "year" was almost over. GW did VERY well in the shadow of that massive competition, actually.
Comments
Maybe, but the opposite can be true as well. With no sub fee, players can leave and stay away from the game even more. it's one of those things that's uncertain.
How so? Without a sub fee I can log in again anytime I want, with a sub fee I can't do that
Block the trolls, don't answer them, so we can remove the garbage from these forums
I get that. What i'm trying to say is that, despite being able to ump in, if one doesn't play on a more continous level, it can easily still show.
For example, many players after a few months may jump in and out of the game, cool, but if they only do it from time to time n short bursts, it doesn't help te pop all that much compared to a stable playerbase every month.
for the last 7 years, since 2005,
ANET has already shown the b2p model works
EQ2 fan sites
You do know the difference between a full mmorpg and a lobby game, right?
Can you please explain the reason why it won't work in an MMORPG?
Some people also believe the world will end in December 2012 - that doesn't mean we have to believe them or even just pay attention to what they say
We are doomed, I tell you!
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
You can freely move to higher population servers except for WvW.
Do you believe a game like WoW has the same 10 million playing all the time?
They keep coming and going - with GW2 is a lot easier for a few reasons.
1) Overflow servers - instead of opening tons of named servers, Anet will open less servers than otherwise and will handle the excess through these servers, allowiing them to be more aggressive with higher population counts. Then shut them off without anyone noticing and no need to mergers.
2) It is easier to just follow the impulse of going back in a game if you don't have to dish an extra $15 for the privelege of log in.
3) Anet is experience with AI companions and NPCs.
4) The largest group required is 5 people.
5) Anet ran a healthy amount of events with GW1 and has already shown they can create content really quickly like with the corrupion event.
Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
Because:
PVE- In GW1, everybody auto gathers in the hubs making group finding alot easier, using npcs to help you, or even hide low pop problems. GW2 is going to spread it's playerbase over the world events, story instances, dungeons, etc, making group finding just as much of a problem as normal mmorpgs
PVP- SaMe thing as GW1. No big deal for Structured pvp of course, but WVW even needs more players than pve. While atleast you can guest in pve to make it easier, you're bound to your server for WVW. Low pop on multyple servsers would cause tons of problems for it. Which would lead to necessary server merges, which is never good.
GW1 is fully instanced making pop not even as much of a big deal as a full mmo like all others. Which is why the game can't hang around for months on end with no content or expansion or anything, otherwise problem show up. Sub or not.
I am a fan of GW1, and intend to play GW2, but some of your points are a bit off:
Number 2 A significant percentage of GW1's boxes would have been at discount prices. In addition some portion would have been duplicate accounts. Buying a second box of GW at $20 is very different than paying $15 per month for seven years.
Number 3 Whether or not GW2 charges a sub fee there is still competition with other MMOs. Someone will have to decide spend money on a GW2 box vs microtransactions/sub fees in their existing game. Don't get me wrong, it is still an easier decision due to GW2's lack of a sub fee. Then there is the matter of available play time. In addition to a player's money GW2 needs to compete for their time. I don't know about everyone else but, between work, married life, and real life responsibilities, I do not have a ton of time to spare for multiple MMOs, which are much more time intensive than is oftent he case in other genres of gaming.
Number 4 I think that you will find that, "instantly successful," is a bit of a stretch for any game. Obviously this depends on your definition of 'successful', but do you think that even EA/Bioware consider a game that has not met its goals (as stated in marketing releases) to be instantly successful ? Retention is key here. GW2 may not be relying on sub fees, but they are aiming for retained players buying expansion packs, spendingmoney in the cash shop, etc.
Number 5 I agree with aspects of this point, but keep in mind that an unemployment rate of less than 10% does not equate to "most of us...dont have jobs."
When all has been said and done, more will have been said than done.
The only place where GW2 server population becomes a concern is in WvW... and even then WvW can be done with a few hundred people on 3 different servers (due to the relatively low zone cap and the fact that WvW is spread over 4 zones).
Hello everybody I was the first guy that said this game will rock your world when players where saying it wasnt, another think I did not predict the release date becouse my rlease date prediction wss december 24 so i totally missed but this proves something to me and that is that guild wars 2 will be a well polish game when is release on august so you know this game is going to be a big big succesfull MMO, but how succesfull of a MMO will guild wars 2 be? I will say as succesfull as EVE online? but not as high as WoW and I will tell you why and that will be becouse Guild Wars 2 will not be a Pay To Play Game this will be a Buy To play Game, but that dosent mean that this game will not rock the MMO world Guild Wars 2 will be the Best Free Non Subscribe game in the World and Maybe just Maybe WoW will be DETRONE from the MMO market and Smart people like me will move to Guild Wars 2, I hope Some of Anet Employees as seeing this and I will like to say THANK YOY FOR MAKING A AWSOME GAME I SUPPORT YOUR COUSE
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Don't forget you can also easily transfer all your characters in one move for a small fee if you feel your server is too empty. In other games, you'd have to pay something like $20 for each character, here you just change your home server.
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Exactly this.
I have been waiting for a game to live up to what I think a MMO should be since the days of UO.
GW2 isn't perfect, but damn is it really, really good and a hell of a lot of fun.
If/when they ever add player housing, I know I'll have my new MMO home (lol) for a long, long time.
My checklist from UO I've been looking for?
1. PvE about fun, exploration, collecting, adventure - not grinding and gear
2. PvP about territorial control and capture for one's faction, seperate from PvE (Trammel Felucca split)
3. Un-structured/ non hand-holding / non linear game play in PvE
4. Fully cooperative non-competitive PvE
5. Role free group play (no Trinity of "classes")
6. Emergant game play (events, mini games, no restrictions on grouping w/ others etc.) in PvE
7. Awesome housing (I still think GW2 is going to add this down the road)
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/18447-guild-info-discussion-thread/page__st__180__p__887047#entry887047
"It is helpful to take Eric's full statement into account.
He mentioned that there will be no Guild Halls on release as we want to make Guild Halls a great experience and not just a "place". We will introduce player housing at some point after launch, and at that time we will also implement guild halls. "
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
And when you add a sub, it serves to compound the problems you described, not alleviate them.
I never said a sub makes it easier. Of course it doesn't. What i'm trying to say is that going back to GW1 is no problem because it's a lobby game. Jumping in and out from time to time in an mmo is not so usefull if the players only stay for a very short amount of said time. A stable community that is active most of time is what matters, and it means more money, which is what will decide the future of course.
If they implement Housing i rather prefer they do it like in UO or SWG, anything else would just be some extra vault space and a trophy displayment. Although i doubt that will happen as the other games were sandboxes. IF they do however, double thumbs up. Housing needs to have a greater purpose then just a personal space, you should be able to add vendor's and personalise it, so it becomes unique. On a personal note i rather have a housing vendor system then a general Auction Hall.
This way you have to do something to get an item. I think people that have played UO and SWG have memories getting a specific item. Myself i remember speeding around for two days in swg to finaly get a hold of that awesome rifle and in UO roaming around Fel because some vendors there were cheaper and i could resel stuff with profit in Tram.
As creative Arenanet has shown to be i think it will be safe to say they will do a good job.
Your assumtion that everyone is going to be jumping out from time to time is really just based on nothing. While it's possible to do that with this game, and I believe it's one of the strengths of the B2P model, the idea that people will do it more often in this game than a sub game is just conjecture. Edit: (People paying subs may not play much anyway. People with subs that are over are less likely to play again.)
I agree with you that having a solid population is important in any MMORPG, but I also think that the B2P model is only going to serve to help strengthen the population, not hinder it. And even you apparently agrre that a sub does not make it easier to alleviate the problems you describe, so what are you even trying to say?
Successful? Depends on your definition.
In the business sense I'd say profitable = successful. - I bet A-net has enough pre-purchases already to guarantee profiability.
Some would say that killing WoW would make it successful. - Not a chance of this happening. WoW is too strong a franchise with too much success already under its belt to be "killed" by any single game.
If the game's activity level eclipses that of WoW (the WoW of peak activity that is), then I would say this is a smashing success that would alter the genre permanently. - I have my doubts that A-Net can push it this far, but this seems to be what they are hoping for. I'd say chances are probably less than a coin flip of this happening, but if the game does turn out to be this good we will all be pretty happy gamers.
A viable long-term E-sport is something the genre has craved for years and A-net seems to be trying to create it, maybe that would define success in some way. - At present the game doesn't have a number of the things it would need to flourish as E-sport. It's not to say that it can't happen, only that what I have seen in the betas has not done it. There are a ton of reasons why this genre hasn't had a viable long term E-sport (credit where credit is due, WoW made a decent attempt, but fell short in my opinion). I doubt that even A-net can make it successful this way. I'd say less than 10% chance of this kind of success, simply because it has never been done before and it has been attempted by much larger outfits with deeper pockets and a way bigger dev team.
Wonder whats going to happen if players that planned on just jumping in and out of GW2 during main game downtime or whatnot start to discover that they are actually having more fun and a better experience in GW2 than their supposed sub game of choice?
When the game is as solid as GW2 is there is no weakness in Anets B2P model...
GW2 will only experience growth and im guessing the sub model games in the end will feel it the most...
I expect this to happen to a certain extent but to what extent nobody can know yet..
Edit:
There is a lot of casual players paying subs and being treated like 2nd class gamers just because they have RL issues to contend with and many of these weekend warriors will never get to see much if any of the end game content in these elitist mindset cloned power gamer driven games..
Once they discover that in GW2 they can enjoy epic content as they see fit and are not viewed as second class gamers my guess is many will forget all about the subbed clones and play GW2 when time allows and will enjoy and gain the most from that limited time..
Playing GW2..
I agree with that. GW2 will have a core community just as much as all other mmo, that's for sure. I was simply trying to explain that not having a sub means players can feel less inclined to retun if they're bored of the game. But of course, as i've always believe, the opposite can be true. It also changes from player to player.
It's all very uncertain anyway, and only the future will tell.
Your entire premise seems, to me, as being based on the belief GW2 won't have enough content until more content is out and also because probably you believe non sub fee games won't receive new content.
i don't agree on both premises.
If you remember, WoW was release with like 14 dundeons plus a couple of 10 mans and molten core.
Compared to existing MMORPGS of the time, WoW didn't have that much content.
Massive content alone isn't a reason players stay in a game.
People flocked to WoW because it was a high polished title from a reputable dev, that removed some of the most annoying things the genre incorporated. That allowed it to reach a mass of players that wouldn't play any of the other MMORPGs out there.
GW2 is also a very polished MMORPG that targets some of the most annoying features of the genre.
Additionally I don't see how paying $15 will make players more inclined to return to a game compared to just double clicking the game shortcut.
Currently playing: GW2
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GW came out months after EQ2 and WoW. I would hardly call that the "least" competition. Sure it was the next "year," technically, but EQ2 and WoW came out in November of the year before, so the "year" was almost over. GW did VERY well in the shadow of that massive competition, actually.
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