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What really killed this game

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  • MosesZDMosesZD Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

    Originally posted by Superduper69

     

    Sales have been in toilet for SWTOR? what?

     

    Trend analysis.  

     

    Sold 1.75 million first two weeks.

    Sold 284 thousand in January.

    Sold  112 (approx, final numbers not adjusted) in February.

     

    Average weekly decline in sales is 31% in decline from the previous week (starting from week ending January 7th, it'd be far worse if I started from inception).   Example series to illustrate: 

    100K sales Week 1. 

    69K sales Week 2.  

    48k sales Week 3.

    33k sales Week 4.

    23k sales Week 5.

     

     

     

    In real-life the curve isn't as smooth.   T

  • MosesZDMosesZD Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

    Originally posted by grimal

    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by bigsmiff



    So my vision doesn't count? And my new guildies are my imagination? The Republic fleet has been steadily growing in pop. for the past week or so. It is funny that those sites weren't accurate when the numbers were growing. Now that they show a decrease, it is accurate right?

    I don't know what bullshit 'fanboys' and 'haters' have been throwing around in here over time, but SW:ToR definitely has a shrinking population and has had so since after the initial sales boom. Local increases don't count for a lot. My guild went from 5 members to 90 in 2 months in GW1 in 2008, but that was after all the expansions, when work was being done on GW2 :) The whole game hadn't drastically increased in playercount just because my guild saw an 18x increase in size.

    But, indeed, like the poster said, it's not dead and wont be for a long time.

    Every MMO sees a decrease in activity after the initial month or two.

    Not true.   Not even close.    LOTRO didn't.   Took years.   WoW took even longer.   Eve keeps growing.  Lineage and Lineage II grew for years and year and years before losing players.  

     

    And there are more examples to disprove this old canard.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by grimal

    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by bigsmiff



    So my vision doesn't count? And my new guildies are my imagination? The Republic fleet has been steadily growing in pop. for the past week or so. It is funny that those sites weren't accurate when the numbers were growing. Now that they show a decrease, it is accurate right?

    I don't know what bullshit 'fanboys' and 'haters' have been throwing around in here over time, but SW:ToR definitely has a shrinking population and has had so since after the initial sales boom. Local increases don't count for a lot. My guild went from 5 members to 90 in 2 months in GW1 in 2008, but that was after all the expansions, when work was being done on GW2 :) The whole game hadn't drastically increased in playercount just because my guild saw an 18x increase in size.

    But, indeed, like the poster said, it's not dead and wont be for a long time.

    Every MMO sees a decrease in activity after the initial month or two.

    Every MMO recently definitely has (because the cycle is normally WoW player -> tries new MMO that's basically WoW in a different skin from a mechanics standpoint -> goes back to WoW). It's not always been the case though.

    SW:ToR has done well enough to justify it's costs though and for US players the servers are full enough to enjoy the game. Not the case for EU though, that's something Bioware need to do something about. Heavy server merges are needed for EU.

  • Superduper69Superduper69 Member Posts: 363

    Originally posted by MosesZD

    Originally posted by Superduper69

     

    Sales have been in toilet for SWTOR? what?

     

    Trend analysis.  

     

    Sold 1.75 million first two weeks.

    Sold 284 thousand in January.

    Sold  112 (approx, final numbers not adjusted) in February.

     

    Average weekly decline in sales is 31% in decline from the previous week (starting from week ending January 7th, it'd be far worse if I started from inception).   Example series to illustrate: 

    100K sales Week 1. 

    69K sales Week 2.  

    48k sales Week 3.

    33k sales Week 4.

    23k sales Week 5.

     

     

     

    In real-life the curve isn't as smooth.   T

    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

  • MosesZDMosesZD Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

    Originally posted by Superduper69

    Originally posted by MosesZD


    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    Hmmm...it's letting me log in right now. That's strange

     

    Seriously..why are people killing this game off? My guild has gotten 5 brand spanking new players in the last 2 days and all of my friends are still loving the game. I am seeing a rise in population on Sith Wyrm server so Bioware must have given us a different game then what everyone else is playing.

     

    No you're not.   The actual hard data says other wise.   What you have is classic confrimation bias and anecdote.   You can see a local increase, but that doesn't mean the server increased as a whole.

     

    Your server barely makes 'heavy' and when it does, it's for minutes, not hours.    It spends over 50% of it's time in light.    It wasn't like that January 8th.    It was far, far more populated.

    There we go again..the mythical data. Where is it?

     

     

    lol.  You were shown   You refused to look.   Now you call it a myth.  You're simply hopeless.  Or extremely dishonest.  Don't know.  Don't care.  Talking with you is as pointless as it gets.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by Superduper69

    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

    WoW only started growing in 2010?

    That's news to me!

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359

    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    Originally posted by Creslin321

    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    Hmmm...it's letting me log in right now. That's strange

     

    Seriously..why are people killing this game off? My guild has gotten 5 brand spanking new players in the last 2 days and all of my friends are still loving the game. I am seeing a rise in population on Sith Wyrm server so Bioware must have given us a different game then what everyone else is playing.

     Doesn't look like it...

    http://www.torstatus.net/sith-wyrm/history/7d#!/sith-wyrm/history/30d

    So my vision doesn't count? And my new guildies are my imagination? The Republic fleet has been steadily growing in pop. for the past week or so. It is funny that those sites weren't accurate when the numbers were growing. Now that they show a decrease, it is accurate right?

     No, they count, but your vision is just a small subset of the entire server.  It doesn't represent the server as a whole.

    For example, my neighborhood could be growing while the city as a whole is drastically shrinking. 

    And yes, they should be accurate.  They just measure the server's "status" as presented by Bioware over time.  I.e. light, standard, heavy, very heavy, full

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Not true.   Not even close.    LOTRO didn't.   Took years.   WoW took even longer.   Eve keeps growing.  Lineage and Lineage II grew for years and year and years before losing players.  

     

    And there are more examples to disprove this old canard.

    LOTRO did see a decrease in population after first couple months.  I know.  I have been playing that since beta and saw that exodus happen personally.  (I remember having a fully populated "online" friends list in the first month...after that, I never saw those friends login again)  That's not to say the population didn't increase again, of course it did.

    WoW is the exception to this.  But every other MMO typically sees a drop off of players after the first month of release.

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359

    Originally posted by Superduper69

    Originally posted by MosesZD

    Originally posted by Superduper69

     

    Sales have been in toilet for SWTOR? what?

     

    Trend analysis.  

     

    Sold 1.75 million first two weeks.

    Sold 284 thousand in January.

    Sold  112 (approx, final numbers not adjusted) in February.

     

    Average weekly decline in sales is 31% in decline from the previous week (starting from week ending January 7th, it'd be far worse if I started from inception).   Example series to illustrate: 

    100K sales Week 1. 

    69K sales Week 2.  

    48k sales Week 3.

    33k sales Week 4.

    23k sales Week 5.

     

     

     

    In real-life the curve isn't as smooth.   T

    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

     http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png

    WoW is the green line that rises far above everything else.  It obviously was in a period of explosive growth for years.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • Superduper69Superduper69 Member Posts: 363

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    Originally posted by Superduper69



    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

    WoW only started growing in 2010?

    That's news to me!

    I am talkign about 11+ million status it achieved didn't just took it 2 months since the guy i quoted gave example of WOW's growth. But then again WOW is an exception not a norm.

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Originally posted by Creslin321

    Originally posted by Superduper69


    Originally posted by MosesZD


    Originally posted by Superduper69

     

    Sales have been in toilet for SWTOR? what?

     

    Trend analysis.  

     

    Sold 1.75 million first two weeks.

    Sold 284 thousand in January.

    Sold  112 (approx, final numbers not adjusted) in February.

     

    Average weekly decline in sales is 31% in decline from the previous week (starting from week ending January 7th, it'd be far worse if I started from inception).   Example series to illustrate: 

    100K sales Week 1. 

    69K sales Week 2.  

    48k sales Week 3.

    33k sales Week 4.

    23k sales Week 5.

     

     

     

    In real-life the curve isn't as smooth.   T

    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

     http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png

    WoW is the green line that rises far above everything else.  It obviously was in a period of explosive growth for years.

    It's not fair to use WoW as an example as it has proven time and time to be more of a phenomenom than anything else.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by grimal

    Not true.   Not even close.    LOTRO didn't.   Took years.   WoW took even longer.   Eve keeps growing.  Lineage and Lineage II grew for years and year and years before losing players.  

     

    And there are more examples to disprove this old canard.

    LOTRO did see a decrease in population after first couple months.  I know.  I have been playing that since beta and saw that exodus happen personally.   That's not to say the population didn't increase again, of course it did.

    WoW is the exception to this.  But every other MMO typically sees a drop off of players after the first month of release.

    So does pretty much every AAA game for that matter. Games are usually overmarketed and 'hyped' in order to get more people to buy it than actually are that interested in playing it (to the point where'd they buy it without overblown expectations).

    There are few games which do grow, and they tend to be ones which don't blow out of proportion anything in the game (so expectations are reasonable and therefore not hype) and are generally very 'light' on marketing. One of the most prominent in recent times was CoD4. That saw a massive upswing in sales after people saw it was good. If i had to pin another game which will do that, i'd go for GW2. As much as people like to say so, nothing about GW2 has been hype (even PC gamer said that GW2 isn't hype but ToR was, and they LOVE ToR), it's all there in the game. When people see the game, they'll very likely want to get it. The initial sales of GW2 will be relatively stunted (i say relatively because i'd still say they'll get 2-3m copies in the first month) because of how jaded so many MMO players are after many years of 'hype' instead of 'fact' but when they see the game for itself it'll change that.

    But we'll see about that. But the main point is that nearly every heavily marketed game sees a negative sales growth and playerbase.

  • hikaru77hikaru77 Member UncommonPosts: 1,123

    Here we go again, more about ¨swtor is dying¨, is an ¨huge fail¨, ¨It will be F2P in 3 Months¨, ¨is the worst MMO i have played¨. But the truth is that  people dont care about what the haters have to say, and they just keep playing and enjoying one of the best MMO in the market. You guys should learn to live with that, Almost 3 months after launch, and the population will grow even more with the release of the 1.2 update.  Lot of people quit, but most of them is people who cant live without WoW, and still swtor is getting new players everysingle day. 

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by Superduper69

    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by Superduper69



    No single MMO stays consistent with sales after release. That is why the sales of MMOs are counted over years not days or weeks. Even WOW started growing well after period of 4 to 5 years. MMOS do not work like single player games which are sold on multiple platofrms. For a pc game SWTOR has sold damn well at release.

    Trend analysis ... *rolls eyes*

    WoW only started growing in 2010?

    That's news to me!

    I am talkign about 11+ million status it achieved didn't just took it 2 months since the guy i quoted gave example of WOW's growth. But then again WOW is an exception not a norm.

    Definitely, but it was steadily growing since 2005.

    The reason no game has emulated WoW's success is because they're all trying to emulate WoW. WoW was so successful because it changed things up.

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    Originally posted by grimal

    Not true.   Not even close.    LOTRO didn't.   Took years.   WoW took even longer.   Eve keeps growing.  Lineage and Lineage II grew for years and year and years before losing players.  

     

    And there are more examples to disprove this old canard.

    LOTRO did see a decrease in population after first couple months.  I know.  I have been playing that since beta and saw that exodus happen personally.   That's not to say the population didn't increase again, of course it did.

    WoW is the exception to this.  But every other MMO typically sees a drop off of players after the first month of release.

    So does pretty much every AAA game for that matter. Games are usually overmarketed and 'hyped' in order to get more people to buy it than actually are that interested in playing it (to the point where'd they buy it without overblown expectations).

    There are few games which do grow, and they tend to be ones which don't blow out of proportion anything in the game (so expectations are reasonable and therefore not hype) and are generally very 'light' on marketing. One of the most prominent in recent times was CoD4. That saw a massive upswing in sales after people saw it was good. If i had to pin another game which will do that, i'd go for GW2. As much as people like to say so, nothing about GW2 has been hype (even PC gamer said that GW2 isn't hype but ToR was, and they LOVE ToR), it's all there in the game. When people see the game, they'll very likely want to get it. The initial sales of GW2 will be relatively stunted (i say relatively because i'd still say they'll get 2-3m copies in the first month) because of how jaded so many MMO players are after many years of 'hype' instead of 'fact' but when they see the game for itself it'll change that.

    But we'll see about that. But the main point is that nearly every heavily marketed game sees a negative sales growth and playerbase.

    My point is, it's much too early to say this game is "dead".  There is still a lot of activity going on and that may very well increase in the future.

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

     WoW was so successful because it changed things up.

     

    This is so absurd I'm not sure how to even reply to this.  But I'll try....WHAT did WoW change at launch that was so different from  those preceeding it?  Other than gloss?  WHAT?

  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004

    Originally posted by grimal

     WoW was so successful because it changed things up.

     

    This is so absurd I'm not sure how to even reply to this.  But I'll try....WHAT did WoW change at launch that was so different from  those preceeding it?  Other than gloss?  WHAT?

    everything.. it was the right game at the right time, and it literally 'pwned' everything else that was around at the time, Blizzards detractors may hype on the fact that WoW was really a clone of x games, but, when you make something better than the original, its no longer a clone, its an evolution, and thats what we're not seeing from other games that attempt to do the same thing Blizzard did. Perhaps the status quo really will not change until there really is another 'evolution' in MMO's, what form that evolution take i have no idea, except.. im not seeing anything like that in any current games in development.image

  • UnlightUnlight Member Posts: 2,540

    Originally posted by daveospice

    The passive gameplay style. 

    For instance; in the early levels the instances are easy to run and you don't need to CC anything to succeed.   I really enjoyed it up until around level 30+

     

    In the later levels, you basically have to CC everything down to one mob and kill one mob at a time in order to get through the levels.

     

    Welcome to EQ 1 all over again.

     

    After playing EQ for so long, I can't do this playstyle anymore.    Especially after having played through Rift, and enjoyed the fast paced combat.

     

    Not to mention so much CC never transfers well into PVP...  I hated PVP in this game.  Probably the worst PVP I've ever played in an MMO. I  wish I could have got my money back really, it was that bad.

    You don't even understand how bad this game is...  I was really upset at myself for having spent 60 dollars on this and buying the hype when I could have took that 60 dollars and spent it on something I'd actually enjoy. 

    This game isn't just going in my junk pile, I'm going to fucking burn it. 

    Shadowbane, Hellgate London, Tabula Rasa all gets cancelled, and you guys let this game live on?  REALLY?

     

    They developed a trade skill that... gives you money.  THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WARNING SIGN WHY DIDN'T I SEE IT!

    I'm not going to disagree with you about the game itself, but I will say that you only have yourself to blame.  Sure there was hype, but that's common to every big name release.  The thing is all the signs were there before the game was released.  You could easily have prevented yourself from wasting your time and money by just looking for them. 

    One thing the fans of this game are absolutely correct about is that the game you got is pretty much the game everybody saw prior to release.  A lot of people could clearly see what to expect and concluded that the game wasn't for us.  You could certainly have been one too and be $60 to the better for it today.

    I hope the next game you invest in proves to be much more rewarding for you.

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Originally posted by Phry

    everything.. it was the right game at the right time, and it literally 'pwned' everything else that was around at the time, Blizzards detractors may hype on the fact that WoW was really a clone of x games, but, when you make something better than the original, its no longer a clone, its an evolution, and thats what we're not seeing from other games that attempt to do the same thing Blizzard did.

    First, "better" is a point of view.  Second, by that logic, most games that have come out since WoW's release (i.e. 2004) have been better.  Therefore, this genre has been nothing but evolution since!

    Edit: "everything" is not an answer to my question.  What, specifically, did WoW bring to the genre at launch that was not there before?

  • kaliniskalinis Member Posts: 1,428

    u people realize tor isnt dead right? Far from it its a thriving game. the game is doing much better then u the world is falling tor is going free 2 play next month crowd will ever give it credit for.

  • aionixaionix Member UncommonPosts: 288

    Originally posted by Phry

    Originally posted by grimal

     WoW was so successful because it changed things up.

     

    This is so absurd I'm not sure how to even reply to this.  But I'll try....WHAT did WoW change at launch that was so different from  those preceeding it?  Other than gloss?  WHAT?

    everything.. it was the right game at the right time, and it literally 'pwned' everything else that was around at the time, Blizzards detractors may hype on the fact that WoW was really a clone of x games, but, when you make something better than the original, its no longer a clone, its an evolution, and thats what we're not seeing from other games that attempt to do the same thing Blizzard did. Perhaps the status quo really will not change until there really is another 'evolution' in MMO's, what form that evolution take i have no idea, except.. im not seeing anything like that in any current games in development.image

    I can defiently agree WoW (after the intial launch issues) ended up better than its predecessors, but thats the problem with TOR.  It's trying to copy the success, and it is failing miserably at it. 

    When ur #1 feature (voiceovers) ends up being spacebar'd through by the majority of players after the first month, what exactly does that leave the game with?  A mediocore, coop RPG.

  • grimalgrimal Member UncommonPosts: 2,914

    Originally posted by aionix

    When ur #1 feature (voiceovers) ends up being spacebar'd through by the majority of players after the first month, what exactly does that leave the game with?  A mediocore, coop RPG.

    You forgot to mention that it's being spacebar'd through by people whom have already heard that line of dialogue;  not by people who haven't heard it.

  • buegurbuegur Member UncommonPosts: 457

    The game isn't in a "killed" state as of yet so the authors point is a bit moot.  Spending $60 dollars for a new game is pretty standard unfortunately and if that bothers you I would suggest waiting a few months before jumping on the bandwagon.  I would disagree that their wasn't plenty of negative warnings on SWToR as this site had tons.  That said I'm enjoying the game for what it is, which to me is casual friendly and makes you the hero of the story.  Me and my friend group daily and have a blast.  We will continue to play the game through the various stories for the next few months.  After we get tired of leveling our characters up I don't see anything at the high end that will keep my interest up for longterm and will probably move on.  Paying $60 plus the subscription fee for six months or so of pleasure is worth the cash.

  • lilHealalilHeala Member UncommonPosts: 522

    Originally posted by Creslin321

     http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png

    WoW is the green line that rises far above everything else.  It obviously was in a period of explosive growth for years.

    From which data are those charts generated? Everybody can draw some nice graphs/charts. If I look at the Subs-2.png in the same webfolder, it shows the data for LOTRO but Turbine has never officially released any figures nor are these accurately acquirable through datamining.

    edit: nvm, looking at the mmodata site itself it shows an accuracy rating C for LOTRO which is described as:

    C rating – Some of the datapoints may come from official or other reliable sources, many of the datapoints come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.

    So I take the figures for a lot of games with a huge brick of salt.

    But not for WoW as Blizard did release figures so it's not an attack against your point, I was just curious about the numbers for several other mmo's I've played.

     

  • TJixleeTJixlee Member Posts: 159

    Originally posted by oubers

    Originally posted by djmtott

    You could just say that you don't share in their opinion and shrug it off. Instead you run to the MMORPG.com forums to add one more thread to where no more are needed.

    AMEN to that....

     

    image

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