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What my crystal ball tells me ...

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  • KarteliKarteli Member CommonPosts: 2,646

    It's kind of an insult to what free to play really means .. more like some kind of Runes of Magic ripoff F2P which charges you monthly to actually be able to do anything fun with friends.  RoM has one up on them though, they charge a few bucks a month just to be able to ride a horse, lulz :)

     

    It's more like a gimped level 50 demo, with the max level (55? in Makeb) available only to subscribers.  Theres a chart of all the restricted functionality in the other thread here.  True B2P with expansions would have fared better with this game. /shrug

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • GamerUntouchGamerUntouch Member Posts: 488

    Pfft it laster even less than a year.

     

  • ignore_meignore_me Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 1,987
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Am I the only one that thinks that TOR is going to have MORE subs after a year then it started with?

    Some will be lost, sure, that always happens, but between word of mouth and positive reviews and media blitz hype and post-launch patching and expansions etc. if I was a betting man, I'd bet TOR had MORE subscribers after a year then at launch rather then less.

    It's happened before, it can (and I think will) happen again.

    Lots of fence sitters, lots of "wait and see" folk.

    WoW got so huge because it kept bringing new people in to outpace the retention losses.

    TOR is positioned to do the same.

    I kind of agree. F2P is the bankruptcy of MMOs. You get to drop the expectations (there's no sub what did you expect?) and now they can suck at the same speed and be competitive.

    Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011

  • BadSpockBadSpock Member UncommonPosts: 7,979
    Originally posted by ignore_me
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Am I the only one that thinks that TOR is going to have MORE subs after a year then it started with?

    Some will be lost, sure, that always happens, but between word of mouth and positive reviews and media blitz hype and post-launch patching and expansions etc. if I was a betting man, I'd bet TOR had MORE subscribers after a year then at launch rather then less.

    It's happened before, it can (and I think will) happen again.

    Lots of fence sitters, lots of "wait and see" folk.

    WoW got so huge because it kept bringing new people in to outpace the retention losses.

    TOR is positioned to do the same.

    I kind of agree. F2P is the bankruptcy of MMOs. You get to drop the expectations (there's no sub what did you expect?) and now they can suck at the same speed and be competitive.

    Well I think I am going to be right about TOR having more players than at launch (thanks to F2P switch) but certainly a whole lot less subs.

  • bcbullybcbully Member EpicPosts: 11,838
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
    Originally posted by Leucent

    Considering AOC and WAR had around 1 mill sales at release, I think it s safe to say SWTOR will at least sell 2-4 times that, as well, alot of x mas presents will be this game, for the kiddies who can t afford it. There will be alot of last minute sales of this game due to it s proximity to good old x mas.

    Everyone that ever played WoW will have some intereset in SW:TOR, lets say only half of those buy SWTOR in the first year after release. thats half of 12 M boxes sold, thats 6M boxes sold in the first year. Thats 300M income..

     

    Now imagine that only half the people will sub and that half of those people will still play after a year while from the other half the average sub time is 4 months , that makes for an average of 2M subs in the first year. 

     

    On top of that, SWTOR is obviously the better game compared to WoW.. So in the end people will continue to move from WoW and other games to SW:TOR...

     

    I see a bright future in my chrystall ball...

     

     

    When WoW released noboddy beleived that a single MMO could get as much as 1M subs.... Be prepared for another surprise.

    This thread is priceless. Now Mr. Bachus, what does your crystal ball tell you about GW2 and TSW? image

    "We see fundamentals and we ape in"
  • bcbullybcbully Member EpicPosts: 11,838
    questions has been answered ;)
    "We see fundamentals and we ape in"
  • WeretigarWeretigar Member UncommonPosts: 600

    I bet some biodrones are going to ask for this tread to be closed since his crytal ball was so right that it was only a couple months shorter on everything he said lol.

  • GrumpyMel2GrumpyMel2 Member Posts: 1,832
    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Hehe. I just have to resurrect this one.

    I would love to hear a word from people that flamed me here.

    Especially you Pony ... You promised, didnt you ?



    But it turns out ...I was wrong.
    It went F2P before 1 year ....

    Somebody needs to turn this one into a MasterCard commercial....

     

    Building a new Star Wars MMO... $200 Million

    Crushing your detracters when you necro the thread where you predicted how badly that MMO would flop....  Priceless.

     

    Way to go Lobotomist....... I personaly lost all desire to try TOR when I learned what kind of game they were building from reading the Dev blogs, long before they launched (never even tried Beta).....but I had absolutely no clue they would crash this hard, this quick. You really called this one.

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen Member UncommonPosts: 2,483

    Kinda funny to go back and see posts from this one. Good necro

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
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    Dark Age of Camelot

  • huskie77huskie77 Member Posts: 354

    Congratulations! This post now has 8 months worth of douche-baggery. Kudos.

    image
  • NBlitzNBlitz Member Posts: 1,904

     

    Emergency Care of the Burn Patient

    Treatment of the Burn Victim

    1. Stopped the burning process
    2. Assessed Airway, Breathing and Circulation
    3. Evaluated the extent and depth of the burn
    4. Assessed the criteria for referral to a burn center
    5. Have observed for and treated associated injuries.
  • RizelStarRizelStar Member UncommonPosts: 2,773
    Originally posted by bcbully
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Am I the only one that thinks that TOR is going to have MORE subs after a year then it started with?

    Some will be lost, sure, that always happens, but between word of mouth and positive reviews and media blitz hype and post-launch patching and expansions etc. if I was a betting man, I'd bet TOR had MORE subscribers after a year then at launch rather then less.

    It's happened before, it can (and I think will) happen again.

    Lots of fence sitters, lots of "wait and see" folk.

    WoW got so huge because it kept bringing new people in to outpace the retention losses.

    TOR is positioned to do the same.

    Mr. Spock, How do you feel about GW2's prospects for success? image

    bcbully I would humble if I where you lmao.

    I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.

    I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.

    P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)

    Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.

  • aesperusaesperus Member UncommonPosts: 5,135

    LOL!

    I was wondering how long it would take for these threads to get necroed. Great stuff!

    What I wanna know is how many of these false prophets have learned from this. I'm guessing not many =(. Yet another great example of how we don't generally know as much as we think we do.

  • thekid1thekid1 Member UncommonPosts: 789
    Originally posted by Moaky07
     

    Like I have stated....IMO TOR will sell more copies within the first year than all NA sandboxes combined ever have. I realize folks like the OP want SWG back, but until such time companies feel it is a worthwhile venture, they wont see a AAA title to suit their fancy.

     

     

    I like this one, I want to put it in my signature.

  • bcbullybcbully Member EpicPosts: 11,838
    Originally posted by RizelStar
    Originally posted by bcbully
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Am I the only one that thinks that TOR is going to have MORE subs after a year then it started with?

    Some will be lost, sure, that always happens, but between word of mouth and positive reviews and media blitz hype and post-launch patching and expansions etc. if I was a betting man, I'd bet TOR had MORE subscribers after a year then at launch rather then less.

    It's happened before, it can (and I think will) happen again.

    Lots of fence sitters, lots of "wait and see" folk.

    WoW got so huge because it kept bringing new people in to outpace the retention losses.

    TOR is positioned to do the same.

    Mr. Spock, How do you feel about GW2's prospects for success? image

    bcbully I would humble if I where you lmao.

    I know, I know ;)

    "We see fundamentals and we ape in"
  • ThaneThane Member EpicPosts: 3,534

    @OP: hehehe, you have a crystal ball? that's not very manly is it? *G*

    i wonder what the other one is made off!?

    "I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up! Not me!"

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by Creslin321

    I'm not going to give any specific predictions, but I think that SWTOR will start off very well, selling a lot of boxes, but will have weak retention.

    Why?

    Because the game's forte (story) is just not designed well for repeat play.  A lot of folks will only go through a story one time and not want to do it again.  And once you strip the story away, you essentially have a game that is a sub-par WoW.

    So I just don't see many people playing this game for years and years.

     I completely agree with the assessment you made 8 months ago.  Smart man, this guy.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • LeetheLeethe Member UncommonPosts: 893




    This thread really is priceless.
    How could so many so-called experts get it so wrong?

    There is NO miracle patch.

    95% of what you see in beta won't change by launch.

    Hope is not a stategy.
    ______________________________
    "This kind of topic is like one of those little cartoon boxes held up by a stick on a string, with a piece of meat under it. In other words, bait."

  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415
    Originally posted by aesperus

    What I wanna know is how many of these false prophets have learned from this. I'm guessing not many =(. Yet another great example of how we don't generally know as much as we think we do.

    None of them, as a matter of fact they're all busy over in the GW2 forums "predicting" ultra success for that game now.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • AmbrosiaAmorAmbrosiaAmor Member Posts: 915
    Being emotionally attached to a computer program. Those 0’s and 1’s I tell you.

    image

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed Member RarePosts: 7,387
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by Creslin321

    I'm not going to give any specific predictions, but I think that SWTOR will start off very well, selling a lot of boxes, but will have weak retention.

    Why?

    Because the game's forte (story) is just not designed well for repeat play.  A lot of folks will only go through a story one time and not want to do it again.  And once you strip the story away, you essentially have a game that is a sub-par WoW.

    So I just don't see many people playing this game for years and years.

     I completely agree with the assessment you made 8 months ago.  Smart man, this guy.

    You just discovered this wonderful thing called "Common Sense" in that older post of yours. Mind sharing this discovery with others on this site?

    Philosophy of MMO Game Design

  • jdnycjdnyc Member UncommonPosts: 1,643
    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Hehe. I just have to resurrect this one.

    I would love to hear a word from people that flamed me here.

    Especially you Pony ... You promised, didnt you ?



    But it turns out ...I was wrong.
    It went F2P before 1 year ....

    +1  very well played sir.

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by MMOExposed
    Originally posted by Creslin321
    Originally posted by Creslin321

    I'm not going to give any specific predictions, but I think that SWTOR will start off very well, selling a lot of boxes, but will have weak retention.

    Why?

    Because the game's forte (story) is just not designed well for repeat play.  A lot of folks will only go through a story one time and not want to do it again.  And once you strip the story away, you essentially have a game that is a sub-par WoW.

    So I just don't see many people playing this game for years and years.

     I completely agree with the assessment you made 8 months ago.  Smart man, this guy.

    You just discovered this wonderful thing called "Common Sense" in that older post of yours. Mind sharing this discovery with others on this site?

     I would be happy to spread the Gospel of Creslin to all the users on this site lol :).

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by Hrimnir
    Originally posted by aesperus

    What I wanna know is how many of these false prophets have learned from this. I'm guessing not many =(. Yet another great example of how we don't generally know as much as we think we do.

    None of them, as a matter of fact they're all busy over in the GW2 forums "predicting" ultra success for that game now.

     The trick isn't whether you predict success or failure for a game...the trick is actually being right a few months after the game is released ;).

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359
    Originally posted by AmbrosiaAmor
    Being emotionally attached to a computer program. Those 0’s and 1’s I tell you.

     Don't talk trash about my lady!!! :)

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

This discussion has been closed.