This is just an absolutely huge number for a new MMO release. I would be willing to bet you can double that number for world-wide sales and possibly double it again for world-wide digital sales. That's just speculation, but we will see soon enough
Yup.
And next to all those multipliers I am damn curious about the "pre-order people v.s. launch-buyer people" ratio. Personally I am more of a launch buyer, even when I do keep a close eye on games during development.
I was wondering this also. While I am usually a pre-order guy myself, I know a lot of people, local friends, long time guildmates and such, that will only pick up a new game after it has been out for a few weeks. They want to hear from real people how it is and they also usually want to avoid log-jam that usually happens right at the beginning.
But between adding on digital sales, international sales AND post launch sales, I think they are going to be posting some surpising numbers.
Triple the number for worldwide release and digital sales? Complete conjecture on your part and I strongly doubt this. SW is biggest in US so for sure the biggest chunk will come from US alone and I have yet to see any reasons for why digital sales would equal box sales, unless it is significantly cheaper.
In any case, all we know for sure is that there are atleast 900k pre orders. Anything else is just pure speculations.
It isn't pure speculation. You can look at past games, and how vgchartz numbers generally compare to the post-release data on what total pre-orders actually were. Historically, I think they've found that for PC games digital purchases tend to outweigh box sales, so even if we assume a dead even split between digital and box, which is probably on the low end, that gives us 1.8 million pre-orders in the US alone. And that is without factoring in Amazon.com box sales, which aren't included in vgchartz numbers.
As for box sales not mattering, it being all about retention, that is a ridiculous statement. Assuming a particular retention rate, the more boxes you sell, the more players you have. A game that sells 4 million boxes and has 50% retention at the six month mark is a more successful product than a game that sells 1 million boxes and has 100% retention at the six month mark.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
This is untrue the cost of servers and maintaining them are cheap... games like SWG made it years on 20-30k players. on the other hand box sales and/or digital sales will help them make their money back so they can put more work into the product. People proclaim this game will have 2-4 million in sales... that would be great for bioware it means they'll make a profit on box sales alone.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Originally posted by CazNeerg Originally posted by Yamota
Triple the number for worldwide release and digital sales? Complete conjecture on your part and I strongly doubt this. SW is biggest in US so for sure the biggest chunk will come from US alone and I have yet to see any reasons for why digital sales would equal box sales, unless it is significantly cheaper. In any case, all we know for sure is that there are atleast 900k pre orders. Anything else is just pure speculations. It isn't pure speculation. You can look at past games, and how vgchartz numbers generally compare to the post-release data on what total pre-orders actually were. Historically, I think they've found that for PC games digital purchases tend to outweigh box sales, so even if we assume a dead even split between digital and box, which is probably on the low end, that gives us 1.8 million pre-orders in the US alone. And that is without factoring in Amazon.com box sales, which aren't included in vgchartz numbers. As for box sales not mattering, it being all about retention, that is a ridiculous statement. Assuming a particular retention rate, the more boxes you sell, the more players you have. A game that sells 4 million boxes and has 50% retention at the six month mark is a more successful product than a game that sells 1 million boxes and has 100% retention at the six month mark.
1.8 million players puts Bioware somewhere in the vicinity of breaking even on the game, right out of the gate. I don't think 2 or 3 million new players is out of the ball park. Even 4 million isn't outside the realm of possibility. At 4 million players, they don't really need to worry about retention for making their money back. At that point, they're cruising in black.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
Sure it would. That would mean at 6 months they still had a million players, twice as many as they need to be profitable. The number that matters is total subscribers, not box sales or retention rate by themselves.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
This is untruem the cost of servers and maintaining them are cheap... games like SWG made it years on 20-30k players.
I think this is exactly the point that these preorder numbers try to make. If SWTOR breaks even with just launch sales, then it can survive on lifesupport with minimal subs for a very long time.
I doubt that it will be on life support for a while.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
This is untruem the cost of servers and maintaining them are cheap... games like SWG made it years on 20-30k players.
I think this is exactly the point that these preorder numbers try to make. If SWTOR breaks even with just launch sales, then it can survive on lifesupport with minimal subs for a very long time.
I doubt that it will be on life support for a while.
You would be happy with a game on life support?
have you played a game on life support?
Go ahead, log into WAR a game thats had two content updates in a year and a half.
No one wants to stick around if a game isn't being developed for.
Horrible retention ultimately makes for a bad game.
I don't know about you but I like new content in my mmos.
You are aware WoW's NA/EU numbers are substaintly lower than their Asia subs right? Then again it would be strange for a WoW fan to actually know this.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Preorders and initial sales dont mean anything to us as players. Its nice for the company cause they make a lot or all of their initial investment back but that doesnt do us much good.
What matters is mid to late game, fun factor, replayability, and retention.
EVERY mmo pretty much that has released since wow with a few exceptions has done very well at launch I know WAR and AOC both had over 700k initial sales with WAR having something like 1.5 million post release sales if I recall my numbers correctly. However both of those games did extremely poorly after the first month and then just nose dived.
I'm a jaded mmo gamer and while I will be buying and playing SWTOR I am a bit concerned about the long term viability.
The real test, which none of us at the current time can predict, will be retention post launch say feb - march. If they game is still growing and expanding there then its going to be a great game.
For me, I know story wise its going to be good for at least 2 - 4 play throughs. I'm looking at it as a good single player game that I can play with friends. If it turns out to be something more than that outstanding, but Im not getting my hopes up yet.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
This is untruem the cost of servers and maintaining them are cheap... games like SWG made it years on 20-30k players.
I think this is exactly the point that these preorder numbers try to make. If SWTOR breaks even with just launch sales, then it can survive on lifesupport with minimal subs for a very long time.
I doubt that it will be on life support for a while.
You would be happy with a game on life support?
have you played a game on life support?
Go ahead, log into WAR a game thats had two content updates in a year and a half.
No one wants to stick around if a game isn't being developed for.
Horrible retention ultimately makes for a bad game.
I don't know about you but I like new content in my mmos.
I'm just saying, the game wont die. I doubt sub rentention will be as poor as you expect it to be. Also, I've still gotten more hours of fun out of these life support games than I have from many blockbuster $60 games. And most life support boxes cost around 5 bucks, so its no real loss.
But back to SWTOR, I highly doubt it will go on life support any time soon. Suppose that SWTOR only has a 30% rentention rate. If American BOX preorders are at 1 million then thats still 300k people, hardly life support. Now factor in all the people who have bought it digitally, or are going to buy it after launch (like me) you have much more than just 300,000.
One prediction I do feel comfortable in making...this game's initial sales will surpass all other mmos for launch day sales. How can it not? People have been waiting for a AAA game for too long, and combined with the IP, initial sales will be very successful. But as others have said, long term is where it's at.
But even if SWTOR is lacking at launch in some areas, that is not to say they can't shore up some spots and add things to make the game better after launch. They want this game to be the WOW killer, but they will have to work to get there.
People are really overemphasizing the importance of retention. A game with a 75% retention rate is not necessarily more successful than a game with a 25% retention rate. The number is relevant only in relation to total sales. Look at WoW, it has an abyssmal retention rate. Studies have shown that something like 75% of the people who have ever tried the game were not subscribing to it, when it was at it's peak. But it is still a massive success, because of the huge number of people who tried the game. Attempt to downplay the importance of pre-order numbers all you want, but when it comes right down to it, there is zero question that this will be the largest MMO launch ever. Regardless of what happens with retention.
In all likelihood, it will be a large enough enough that even if TOR has a truly terrible retention rate, as WoW does, it will still have the second most western subscribers of any MMO. Where things go in the long run will depend on the quality of the game, and the speed and quality of expansions, but it is almost guaranteed to be *at least* the second most popular/successful MMO in the West, at least until GW2 and TSW come out.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Based on the content already in, and the money spent, I'm hesitant to believe you.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Based on the content already in, and the money spent, I'm hesitant to believe you.
So which is it you categorically dislike, BioWare games, or themepark MMOs? Because the story is pretty standard for a BioWare game, and the MMO mechanics are also both fairly standard, and polished. In my experience, almost all of the negative feeling towards the game comes from people who simply don't like the *type* of game, at all, not people who think that TOR specifically is a poorly implemented example of the type.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion. Through passion, I gain strength. Through strength, I gain power. Through power, I gain victory. Through victory, my chains are broken. The Force shall free me.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Based on the content already in, and the money spent, I'm hesitant to believe you.
And based of what I've personally played of the game, I'm a firm believer that Bioware's money was well-spent. I think it's a great game and I look forward to them making it even better post-launch.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Based on the content already in, and the money spent, I'm hesitant to believe you.
So which is it you categorically dislike, BioWare games, or themepark MMOs? Because the story is pretty standard for a BioWare game, and the MMO mechanics are also both fairly standard, and polished. In my experience, almost all of the negative feeling towards the game comes from people who simply don't like the *type* of game, at all, not people who think that TOR specifically is a poorly implemented example of the type.
It was the suprising lack of "new", the graphical horrors I encountered (not just referring to cartoon look), and the feeling of intense shall we say familiairity that lead soon after to boredom.
I enjoy Bioware games, and play themeparks regularly. This one was disappointing to me though, as I had much hope for it to be fresh and interesting.
Comments
I was wondering this also. While I am usually a pre-order guy myself, I know a lot of people, local friends, long time guildmates and such, that will only pick up a new game after it has been out for a few weeks. They want to hear from real people how it is and they also usually want to avoid log-jam that usually happens right at the beginning.
But between adding on digital sales, international sales AND post launch sales, I think they are going to be posting some surpising numbers.
All die, so die well.
Warhammer Online had 1.3 million copies sold, less than two weeks after launch, and where is that game now?
Box sales for MMORPGs means nothing in therms of success.
My gaming blog
Yep.
WAR, RIFT, AoC and even Aion (NA/Euro) all started off near 1 million players.
I would imagine not one of those games have over 300k subs right now.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
It isn't pure speculation. You can look at past games, and how vgchartz numbers generally compare to the post-release data on what total pre-orders actually were. Historically, I think they've found that for PC games digital purchases tend to outweigh box sales, so even if we assume a dead even split between digital and box, which is probably on the low end, that gives us 1.8 million pre-orders in the US alone. And that is without factoring in Amazon.com box sales, which aren't included in vgchartz numbers.
As for box sales not mattering, it being all about retention, that is a ridiculous statement. Assuming a particular retention rate, the more boxes you sell, the more players you have. A game that sells 4 million boxes and has 50% retention at the six month mark is a more successful product than a game that sells 1 million boxes and has 100% retention at the six month mark.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Not a single one of those games had the number of pre orders that SWTOR has.
The pre order numbers don't even include digital sales, which are always at least equal too or surpass the number of box sales by a fair margin.
So if you can show me a game that has had nearly 2 million preorders by launch, please do, and I will eat my hat.
Im happy for Bioware.
Honestly I am.
But this is the mmorpg genre.
A game lives or dies by retention alone.
They could have 10 million pre-orders, it wouldnt mean much if in 6 months retention fell 90%
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
This is untrue the cost of servers and maintaining them are cheap... games like SWG made it years on 20-30k players. on the other hand box sales and/or digital sales will help them make their money back so they can put more work into the product. People proclaim this game will have 2-4 million in sales... that would be great for bioware it means they'll make a profit on box sales alone.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Aion easily has over a million subs worldwide.
http://www.brighthub.com/video-games/mmo/articles/35992.aspx
High Five FTW!
In any case, all we know for sure is that there are atleast 900k pre orders. Anything else is just pure speculations.
It isn't pure speculation. You can look at past games, and how vgchartz numbers generally compare to the post-release data on what total pre-orders actually were. Historically, I think they've found that for PC games digital purchases tend to outweigh box sales, so even if we assume a dead even split between digital and box, which is probably on the low end, that gives us 1.8 million pre-orders in the US alone. And that is without factoring in Amazon.com box sales, which aren't included in vgchartz numbers.
As for box sales not mattering, it being all about retention, that is a ridiculous statement. Assuming a particular retention rate, the more boxes you sell, the more players you have. A game that sells 4 million boxes and has 50% retention at the six month mark is a more successful product than a game that sells 1 million boxes and has 100% retention at the six month mark.
1.8 million players puts Bioware somewhere in the vicinity of breaking even on the game, right out of the gate. I don't think 2 or 3 million new players is out of the ball park. Even 4 million isn't outside the realm of possibility. At 4 million players, they don't really need to worry about retention for making their money back. At that point, they're cruising in black.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Sure it would. That would mean at 6 months they still had a million players, twice as many as they need to be profitable. The number that matters is total subscribers, not box sales or retention rate by themselves.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Check my post.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
I think this is exactly the point that these preorder numbers try to make. If SWTOR breaks even with just launch sales, then it can survive on lifesupport with minimal subs for a very long time.
I doubt that it will be on life support for a while.
You would be happy with a game on life support?
have you played a game on life support?
Go ahead, log into WAR a game thats had two content updates in a year and a half.
No one wants to stick around if a game isn't being developed for.
Horrible retention ultimately makes for a bad game.
I don't know about you but I like new content in my mmos.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
You are aware WoW's NA/EU numbers are substaintly lower than their Asia subs right? Then again it would be strange for a WoW fan to actually know this.
Everything I say is my opinion or personal preference. You may or may not find it useful to your cause but regardless I am entitled to it.
Preorders and initial sales dont mean anything to us as players. Its nice for the company cause they make a lot or all of their initial investment back but that doesnt do us much good.
What matters is mid to late game, fun factor, replayability, and retention.
EVERY mmo pretty much that has released since wow with a few exceptions has done very well at launch I know WAR and AOC both had over 700k initial sales with WAR having something like 1.5 million post release sales if I recall my numbers correctly. However both of those games did extremely poorly after the first month and then just nose dived.
I'm a jaded mmo gamer and while I will be buying and playing SWTOR I am a bit concerned about the long term viability.
The real test, which none of us at the current time can predict, will be retention post launch say feb - march. If they game is still growing and expanding there then its going to be a great game.
For me, I know story wise its going to be good for at least 2 - 4 play throughs. I'm looking at it as a good single player game that I can play with friends. If it turns out to be something more than that outstanding, but Im not getting my hopes up yet.
I'm just saying, the game wont die. I doubt sub rentention will be as poor as you expect it to be. Also, I've still gotten more hours of fun out of these life support games than I have from many blockbuster $60 games. And most life support boxes cost around 5 bucks, so its no real loss.
But back to SWTOR, I highly doubt it will go on life support any time soon. Suppose that SWTOR only has a 30% rentention rate. If American BOX preorders are at 1 million then thats still 300k people, hardly life support. Now factor in all the people who have bought it digitally, or are going to buy it after launch (like me) you have much more than just 300,000.
One prediction I do feel comfortable in making...this game's initial sales will surpass all other mmos for launch day sales. How can it not? People have been waiting for a AAA game for too long, and combined with the IP, initial sales will be very successful. But as others have said, long term is where it's at.
But even if SWTOR is lacking at launch in some areas, that is not to say they can't shore up some spots and add things to make the game better after launch. They want this game to be the WOW killer, but they will have to work to get there.
People are really overemphasizing the importance of retention. A game with a 75% retention rate is not necessarily more successful than a game with a 25% retention rate. The number is relevant only in relation to total sales. Look at WoW, it has an abyssmal retention rate. Studies have shown that something like 75% of the people who have ever tried the game were not subscribing to it, when it was at it's peak. But it is still a massive success, because of the huge number of people who tried the game. Attempt to downplay the importance of pre-order numbers all you want, but when it comes right down to it, there is zero question that this will be the largest MMO launch ever. Regardless of what happens with retention.
In all likelihood, it will be a large enough enough that even if TOR has a truly terrible retention rate, as WoW does, it will still have the second most western subscribers of any MMO. Where things go in the long run will depend on the quality of the game, and the speed and quality of expansions, but it is almost guaranteed to be *at least* the second most popular/successful MMO in the West, at least until GW2 and TSW come out.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Of course it will have huge numbers, it's Star Wars and the its like WoW, put those two things together and you get big numbers.
I'm so excited to hear about how many other people will be playing this game, because it has a huge impact on my own personal experience! How much money the developers make is really important to me as a player, and has a major effect on my enjoyment!
Lol. You should care. The more money they make, the faster they can deliver more content, and the higher quality that content can be.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
Based on the content already in, and the money spent, I'm hesitant to believe you.
So which is it you categorically dislike, BioWare games, or themepark MMOs? Because the story is pretty standard for a BioWare game, and the MMO mechanics are also both fairly standard, and polished. In my experience, almost all of the negative feeling towards the game comes from people who simply don't like the *type* of game, at all, not people who think that TOR specifically is a poorly implemented example of the type.
Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.
And based of what I've personally played of the game, I'm a firm believer that Bioware's money was well-spent. I think it's a great game and I look forward to them making it even better post-launch.
It was the suprising lack of "new", the graphical horrors I encountered (not just referring to cartoon look), and the feeling of intense shall we say familiairity that lead soon after to boredom.
I enjoy Bioware games, and play themeparks regularly. This one was disappointing to me though, as I had much hope for it to be fresh and interesting.